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First post. Why do you think pats are aggressive this off season

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djs617

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Ok so i wanted to see what people thought of this off season and the unusual moves made? Im not fully stuck on this thought, its something that came across my mind I was just thinking that Brady and Belichick have a little side deal, if they win one more title He will retire this year and that way Jimmy can take over. that's just a comical thought but there's also because of Brady's age they're surrounding him with more protection and weapons which is obvious
 
Aggressive....addressing needs.....

Either ways neither Tom or Bill strike me as the type to be content with their lot, basking in the glow of glories past, all complacent and self satisfied. Nope that's done, they're on to winning the next game, and the one after that, and the one after that forever more....
 
I think we are always looking to improve or fill potential holes. I think that varies from year to year based on performance, age, contracts etc. I also think by shoring up certain positons it helps to focus the draft team on where to spend our picks.
 
May be that Belichick doesn't like the depth in this draft class.

In 2007, BB traded out of the first round for a pick in 2008 that became Jerod Mayo.
Then, he traded out of the second round and seventh round for Welker.
He traded out of the third round for a pick in 2008 that became Shawn Crable.
He traded out of the fourth round to land Randy Moss.
He traded out of the fifth round for Doug Gabriel.
Basically, he mobilized as much of his draft capital as he could to secure pro players via trade, or picks in 2008.

He ended up with Meriweather in the first round, and a bunch of late round roster fodder none of which made an impact on the team, ever. Terrible draft class.

Looking at the entire 2007 draft, even in retrospect, there's not a lot to regret in terms of players we could have drafted instead.

We could have drafted Eric Weddle instead of Meriweather... but who could know which would be the better pro at the time? Lamarr Woodley was in that draft class, in the 2nd round to the Steelers-- he was my draft binkie that year as a McGinest replacement. But, in retrospect, Welker seems like solid value for that pick, even if the move was derided at the time.

In retrospect, seems clear to me that BB just didn't like the value in that draft, chose to liquidate what he could, and still converted his draft capital into good players. There were no Mayo, Welker or Moss caliber players in the 2007 draft.

Maybe that's his opinion of 2017, too.
 
I think it was merely ability. Gilmore's contract has already been surpassed by Trufant and may seem like a bargain at some point. Cooks is a high level talent that is a known commodity versus a late 1 round pick and dropping down 40 spots in the mid round. Bill always will do an opportunistic trade such as with Allen or Ealy.
 
I don't think they have done anything that deviates too much from we have seen before. They may be spending a little more on players that might be unproven but I think that is the result of a number of factors. has a 07 feel to it when really the only bank breaker was AD

THis year they have a little xtra cap space and need to spend it. The have some needs. Players they like on the the market/available for a price. Loaded roster so rookies will not play a lot. The only "big ticket" item was Gilmore. All the other deals were fairly reasonable in salary and draft pick compensation.

Certainly the Gilmore deal is a surprise but that was the market price for a top CB but that was also driven by the uncertainty of Malcolm's situation and the # of tall WRs and QBs they will face in 2017. If Malcolm was locked up you have to wonder if Gilmore would be here.

The Rex and Guy deals are front-loaded and if they suck Pats have zero long term costs associated. All the other signings are cheap. If they kick butt thats 2018s problem.
 
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Which would be weird because this is the draft class with the most depth within the top 100 in a long time.

Or the other way to say that is, the talent gradient is so flat, that it's impossible to differentiate the first 100 players.

When has the media every declare that the upcoming NFL draft class is "weak"... even the 2007 class. Every year, the class is glowing with prospects, according to the talking heads. Fans tune in because they want to see Hope for the future of their teams.

But everyone knows, QB is weak this year. OT is weak. DL is supposed to be strong, but they'll all be overdrafted if the other position talent is thin. TE is supposed to be strong, but what does that mean... four or five good TEs in the class, maybe? How long will that inventory last? Any time RBs are getting consideration in the top-20, an undervalued position, and when the crappy QBs in the class are STILL going to go top-10... well, that signals to me that there's just not a lot of alluring alternatives.

We can't know for a few years. I'm just reading between the lines and throwing it out there for consideration.
 
Which would be weird because this is the draft class with the most depth within the top 100 in a long time.

And yet he clearly felt that parting with #32 to get Brandin Cooks was no worse an option than using it on a rookie.
 
Ok so i wanted to see what people thought of this off season and the unusual moves made? Im not fully stuck on this thought, its something that came across my mind I was just thinking that Brady and Belichick have a little side deal, if they win one more title He will retire this year and that way Jimmy can take over. that's just a comical thought but there's also because of Brady's age they're surrounding him with more protection and weapons which is obvious
They have the cap room. Simple as that. The off-seasons are always aggressive when there is cap space and always conservative when they don't.
 
I think it's because the one value that the Pats really have is seeking value. For years, the league at large overvalued high draft picks and high-priced veterans, so the Pats traded in mid-tier veterans and mid-round draft picks. They still do, based on their roster construction. But as the league starts imitating, the market dynamic changes. Other teams are starting to come around to the Patriots' way of doing things, and as they we may see the Pats be among the first to flip the other way if the balance shifts. Because the Pats don't inherently care more about mid-tier veterans and 2nd-5th round picks; that's just where the value has been. But if they currently feel like Brandin Cooks gives more value than the #32 pick, then they'll make that trade with no real regard for its consistency with past trends, because value is their only real metric that they care about.

We've seen shifts before with the Patriots, specifically re: their front seven. We ran a two-gap 3-4 for years because only a couple teams wanted guys that fit that skill profile, so we could reliably get the very best of them, and long term we couple keep them by paying them less than their overall contribution would otherwise dictate. But as soon as a bunch of other teams like Cleveland, KC, NYJ, Miami, etc. adopted their own versions of 3-4 defenses (in large part because people were hiring Patriots' staff left and right), the Pats zagged back to a defense that shared many of the basic elements of what they'd run before, but was more closely aligned with a 4-3, since supply and demand now dictated that there was greater value there.

Similarly, right now the Pats use a bunch of undersized, quick, agile receivers. But it's not because those guys are actually better, it's because the rest of the league fails to see the value in them, and therefore we can get a lot of player for not a lot of price. If the pendulum ever swings the other way, and the market catches up to the production, don't be surprised to see the Pats start going after big, tall, physical jump-ball receivers instead.

The same basic principle can be seen anywhere, in different sports or even outside of sports. Billy Beane and the Oakland A's is another great example. For years, everyone associated Moneyball/Billyball with high-OBP hitters and sluggers who could clear the bases, but it was never really about that. That's just where the value was, it had an outsized correlation with success for how little the league valued it. Once all the big-market teams (like Boston) started hiring moneyball disciples who went after the same things, it stopped being an exploitable market inefficiency, and actually became overvalued instead. So the A's zagged when everyone else was zigging, and spent the next few years trafficking in mid-grade starting pitchers and unusually good defenders. Like Belichick, Beane didn't have a model for what his team needed to be, in the traditional sense. His only model was that he'd see what everyone else valued the least, and build a winning program using an awful lot of that.
 
I suspect that the Pats almost always try to be this aggressive. I think recent developments, most importantly winning a 5th Super Bowl, and the growing divide between players and the league front office make the Patriots more attractive to more players these days.
 
But, in retrospect, Welker seems like solid value for that pick, even if the move was derided at the time.

I guess having the NFL leader in catches for 5 or 6 years may have been solid value.

Yes, people way overinflate the value of draft picks. Even when you get a true star player in a trade for a second round pick, there are still those that believe having the pick could have been the better choice.
 
A few things cause it but here is my thoughts on everything.

#1 FAs - He knew the cap situation and the Pats for a first time in a long time have a lot of money free'd up and can take full advantage of the cap going up without being weighed down by dead money. They knew with the QBs they will see this year #1 CB has to be solid. The big contract will not be an issue. I promise in 2 years we will look back and think it was a good deal. As for other FAs it made sense.

#2 Trades - Mix of value and need. Ealy just fell into their laps but i think they were targetting a #2 TE. They know they can't depend on Gronk. He is considered a big time bonus but to not plan to be without him be irresponsible. Cooks was a targeted need. One thing Brady has had and needed throughout his career was that short pass play maker. Edelman won't be that guy for much longer i think. They need someone else and their WRs are a big old. Amendola/Edelman may both be gone together and you want the next guy in here now. They want continuity in place and considered it a priority.

#3 Draft - This draft class is good and bad. This is a class with great depth but short on stars. You have a lot of potentially good starters but not a ton of difference making players. None will fall to 32 so if you get one it is all luck. In the end imo the guy the Pats would get at 32 would not be much different than they guy at 96. Basically it is a draft chalk full of promising 2nd round players that sweep into the 1st and all the way into the 3rd and somewhat into the 4th. This informed BB's thought process.
 
If BB had tried to retain/pay High, Collins, Chandler Jones, and maybe Butler, like many a year ago were projecting would be going on now, it would've been an aggressive off season that just felt like nothing was going on except retaining the same team.
 
Basically for 2 reasons:

1 - They had cap space.
2 - FA is one of the 3 roster building options, the others being the draft and extending/retaining your own FA's (or soon to be) which is a subset of free agency but with some differences.
 
I see it as has the space and not much in terms of compensatory picks to loose. That might be why BB went trade happy with Collins and Jones. ??
 
And yet he clearly felt that parting with #32 to get Brandin Cooks was no worse an option than using it on a rookie.

We will see about that around April 21st which is when Butler essentially has to sign his tender.
 
BB always pounces on opportunities. He had chances to improve the team & money to do it.

I ageee w precious posters suggesting a young WR was a need. Truthfully,
as much as I love BB the GM, his track record on WRs has been spotty at best. BC should fit in - and adds big time to an already loaded offense.
 
I think it's because the one value that the Pats really have is seeking value. For years, the league at large overvalued high draft picks and high-priced veterans, so the Pats traded in mid-tier veterans and mid-round draft picks. They still do, based on their roster construction. But as the league starts imitating, the market dynamic changes. Other teams are starting to come around to the Patriots' way of doing things, and as they we may see the Pats be among the first to flip the other way if the balance shifts. Because the Pats don't inherently care more about mid-tier veterans and 2nd-5th round picks; that's just where the value has been. But if they currently feel like Brandin Cooks gives more value than the #32 pick, then they'll make that trade with no real regard for its consistency with past trends, because value is their only real metric that they care about.

We've seen shifts before with the Patriots, specifically re: their front seven. We ran a two-gap 3-4 for years because only a couple teams wanted guys that fit that skill profile, so we could reliably get the very best of them, and long term we couple keep them by paying them less than their overall contribution would otherwise dictate. But as soon as a bunch of other teams like Cleveland, KC, NYJ, Miami, etc. adopted their own versions of 3-4 defenses (in large part because people were hiring Patriots' staff left and right), the Pats zagged back to a defense that shared many of the basic elements of what they'd run before, but was more closely aligned with a 4-3, since supply and demand now dictated that there was greater value there.

Similarly, right now the Pats use a bunch of undersized, quick, agile receivers. But it's not because those guys are actually better, it's because the rest of the league fails to see the value in them, and therefore we can get a lot of player for not a lot of price. If the pendulum ever swings the other way, and the market catches up to the production, don't be surprised to see the Pats start going after big, tall, physical jump-ball receivers instead.

The same basic principle can be seen anywhere, in different sports or even outside of sports. Billy Beane and the Oakland A's is another great example. For years, everyone associated Moneyball/Billyball with high-OBP hitters and sluggers who could clear the bases, but it was never really about that. That's just where the value was, it had an outsized correlation with success for how little the league valued it. Once all the big-market teams (like Boston) started hiring moneyball disciples who went after the same things, it stopped being an exploitable market inefficiency, and actually became overvalued instead. So the A's zagged when everyone else was zigging, and spent the next few years trafficking in mid-grade starting pitchers and unusually good defenders. Like Belichick, Beane didn't have a model for what his team needed to be, in the traditional sense. His only model was that he'd see what everyone else valued the least, and build a winning program using an awful lot of that.

Great post, I agree with all your examples.

Sometimes it's hard to see the value without the benefit of hindsight. That's why Belichick is the greatest; he makes moves that sometimes leave us scratching our heads, but in retrospect we see they were designed to create value and exploit market inefficiencies.
 
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