PatsFans.com - Mobile
PatsFans.com
Search

Unbearable Lightness of “Agressive“ Narrative

2021 Patriots Season:
Upcoming Opponent:
Next Up: vs Dolphins
Pick Results: MIA: 0% at NE: 0%

Sun
Sep 12th

Current Patriots Twitter Feed:

long distance

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
Id like to add some context to counter-balance the insanity of media takes out there “evaluating“ “uncharacteristically“ “aggressive“ start of FA.
(futile, i know :))


take 1 - “Patriots will be uncharacteristically aggressive“

First of all that's tautological. Lets skip the hyperbolic use of “uncharacteristic“ & “aggressive“ ftm and use more measured unusually active.
Of course they would be unusually active - its most cap space they had in ages & the most depleted roster as well (which of corse in itself is correlated) - so there was hardly an option to be anything but unusually active bc they were in unusual situation.

BB is on a “spending spree“ etc. falls in the same hyperbolic tautology category that flooded media and big parts of fan boards.
What is he supposed to do with over 60M cap (+ by far highest effective cap space in 2022 and beyond)?
As Miguel has to repeat and prove over and over - Patriots spend most of their cap space every year no matter how big it is. This year was one of the few times the carryover was bigger - for some obvious reasons within context of the season - and maybe as a tool to make use of projected lower market.

The bunch of silly (selling) takes like “this is bc of Brady SB“, he wants to “prove something“ etc are not even worth the discussion. BB wants to find a way to win every game every year and explore all options and put all the work and all the resources to give him best possible chance.

And what were they supposed to do with 60M cap? Wait a few days and sign 30 players on bargain deals like Guy?
EVERYONE who has 60M+ cap space (esp. w Salary Cap at 180M) will be very active in FA one way or another.

The last time Patriots had bigger chunk of cap space was in 2017. They signed Gilmore at the start of FA for 5y/65M/31gtd - top 5 contract in all of 2017 FA (under 167M Salary Cap). They traded for D.Allen, Ealy and Cooks sending away significant draft capital and using significant cap as well. They later added top LB contract of that FA (Hightower), Branch in the ballpark of Godchaux (higher relative to salary Cap), Harmon, Guy etc. Was that less “aggressive“? Was that more “characteristic“?


@ “aggressive“

Just because they made so many deals in the 1st day it doesn't mean they were “aggressive“.
Everyone knows talks/deals are in the making well before legal tampering opens. So the fact that the deals are announced in a bunch means only so much. If anything doing the majority of first wave FA work quickly is BBs modus operandi. The difference is the deals come a day or two later since without a lot of cap you have to wait that the market is set at the top and then falls down to the range you are targeting with your limited resources. BBs experience, no nonsense approach and great respect + track record he has with agents allows him to work quickly when possible (no fierce competition). Multiple experienced managers are on record saying BB is the easiest/quickest to make business with.

The reality is they signed only 2 big contracts so far - Smith and Judon.
Smith was projected lower by most (incl. Miguel) but came exactly like PFF projected. Smith was obviously NE #1 FA target, there was reportedly fierce competition and unlike last yr with Humphries they were determined to pull it through. It is close to the top of TE market similar to Gilmore in 2017. Gilmore was not considered among top CBs at that point either (& Buye actually got higher apy contract :))
Judon's signing is actually far below edge market - 4y/56M/32g is also well below projected contract (and base will be even lower).
Just a reminder: Trey Flowers signed for 5y/90M/56g. While Flowers was great player for Patriots, Judon was my top Patriot Type edge in this FA. He can actually play on the line, plays stronger as his size would suggest, defends the edge and run very well and will be an upgrade as pass rusher, blitzer, lateral speed & coverage. This is as perfect fit & as versatile as it gets for Pats edge. If he stays healthy and performs as he projects - this deal could be the steal of this FA.

The rest of the signings are typical BB signings of middle class players at their respective positions - and well within “characteristic“.
The real numbers are still not out but judging by the ones that are this will be the case.

f.e. Bourne's contract leaked by agent was announced as 3y/22M & the reality (base) is 3y/15M/5g = 3.1M cap # (2021) = 2.3M cap hit (TOP 51 rule).
Similarly w Wise - reported 4y/30/10g = 4y/22M/10g = 3.3 cap # = 2.5M cap hit


So lets take it with a grain of salt - BB is doing business as usual - while he can be more competitive with the amount of cap space he has.
He was “aggressive“ in one case so far (Smith). They were reportedly pushing for Samuel as well but likely exit the bidding war and signed Agholor.

-.-
 
Last edited:

GreenCow

Practice Squad Player
I don't understand why this is it's own thread. It's basically the thread I posted yesterday, that got locked because a mod didn't like the opinion expressed in it. @Ian
 

farn

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
I don't understand why this is it's own thread. It's basically the thread I posted yesterday, that got locked because a mod didn't like the opinion expressed in it. @Ian
Welcome back GC.

It may well be true that this spending spree by NE is completely ridic. But, I think your team is going to need to prove they can stop the run. Because with Cam, OL & TE help, looks like running game is option #1 in 2021.

I also wonder if these deals will look better if/when the NFL cap jumps in 12mo...
 

borg

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
Call me naive but I dare believe replacing AAA jag players who don't belong in the NFL with bonafide NFL successes is a step forward for our NEP.

But.....who am I to argue with those literature major/ media members who are now NFL experts.
 

GreenCow

Practice Squad Player
Welcome back GC.

It may well be true that this spending spree by NE is completely ridic. But, I think your team is going to need to prove they can stop the run. Because with Cam, OL & TE help, looks like running game is option #1 in 2021.

I also wonder if these deals will look better if/when the NFL cap jumps in 12mo...
How are you farn?

I agree with you. We need to get better in run defense.

I'm hoping that Lotulelei being back will help.
 

venecol

The FRG has a little ****
f.e. Bourne's contract leaked by agent was announced as 3y/22M & the reality (base) is 3y/15M/5g = 3.1M cap # (2021) = 2.3M cap hit (TOP 51 rule).
Similarly w Wise - reported 4y/30/10g = 4y/22M/10g = 3.3 cap # = 2.5M cap hit
Spotrac shows Bourne cap @ $3.1M, Wise @ $3.3M and Mills @ $4.6M

20210316_104242.jpg
 

borg

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
I don't understand why this is it's own thread. It's basically the thread I posted yesterday, that got locked because a mod didn't like the opinion expressed in it. @Ian
Zuckerburg controls opinions, silly
 

farn

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
How are you farn?

I agree with you. We need to get better in run defense.

I'm hoping that Lotulelei being back will help.
I don’t think that NE, as constituted, is the fav - Bills are still in driver’s seat. I do think a competent QB does make the prospect of returning to the playoffs more tangible. Could be some epic battles this season if Cam isn’t in charge...
 

long distance

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
I also wonder if these deals will look better if/when the NFL cap jumps in 12mo...

Gilmore's deal in 2017 was top of the market and quickly became a bargain so they had to adjust significantly upwards once already and are in the same situation this year..
 

luuked

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
The bunch of silly (selling) takes like “this is bc of Brady SB“, he wants to “prove something“ etc are not even worth the discussion. BB wants to find a way to win every game every year and explore all options and put all the work and all the resources to give him best possible chance.

It never gets old to see how BB lives in the heads of the Brady cultists rent free. Where everything that the Pats are doing -- even a year after Brady's departure -- still has to be about Tom. The reality is that most people that have moved on don't give a crap about the Bucs and the constant pot-stirring to create controversy is just annoying. Something that fortunately can get fixed with the "ignore user" feature (or alternatively with a mute on Twitter).

The last time Patriots had a bigger chunk of cap space was in 2017. They signed Gilmore at the start of FA for 5y/65M/31gtd - top 5 contract in all of 2017 FA (under 167M Salary Cap). They traded for D.Allen, Ealy and Cooks sending away significant draft capital and using significant cap as well. They later added top LB contract of that FA (Hightower), Branch in the ballpark of Godchaux (higher relative to salary Cap), Harmon, Guy etc. Was that less “aggressive“? Was that more “characteristic“?

Bingo. There is nothing uncharacteristic about the way they are going about their business this year unless you believed in media narratives that were conveniently created by said media. As every year they are executing an offseason plan like ninjas with the major difference this time being the ability to spend on top end talent that might have not been available in FA if COVID hadn't wrecked the cap space of some teams.

And guess why they can do it this year ? Because they let Brady move on and spared themselves about 50-63M that would have gone his way over the course of that two year deal he wanted from them. All of what went down over 2020 played a role to bring us to where we are right now. COVID affecting the cap and giving them an even stronger position certainly helped.

Just because they made so many deals in the 1st day it doesn't mean they were “aggressive“.

The only player they signed so far that kinda fits the aggressive narrative would be Agholor to me. But then again we don't know the exact contract structure yet and if you set aside the drops he should be pretty close to what they wanted Cooks to be. Someone that can be used to take the top off (something Cooks is better at) but also someone who can be used on crossers ect. navigating traffic (something Cooks couldn't do at all). So I see the fit and the intention of the signing.

Everyone else.. whether thats Judon (who I think we got slightly below market rate) or Smith is just the cost of doing business when acquiring talented players who are just entering their prime.
 

long distance

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
Spotrac shows Bourne cap @ $3.1M, Wise @ $3.3M and Mills @ $4.6M

View attachment 31219


I posted the same cap numbers (it was from Miguel of course).

Note that these are Cap Numbers. But only TOP 51 contracts count against cap space (TOP 51 rule).
So in order to get the actual Cap Hit as i call it (how much cap space you lose by replacing new contract with the lowest among 51)
you take away that contract - c. 0.8M.

So if the Cap Number of new contract you are adding is 3.8M - you actually lose just 3M of Cap Space.
I use the term Cap Hit for the amount of cap you actually lose.
 

GreenCow

Practice Squad Player
I don’t think that NE, as constituted, is the fav - Bills are still in driver’s seat. I do think a competent QB does make the prospect of returning to the playoffs more tangible. Could be some epic battles this season if Cam isn’t in charge...


Yeah I dont think they can be the favorite until the QB situation is ironed out. I just dont believe in Cam at this point. Even with better weapons. There were times last year where the limited receivers that you folks had would get open and he would skip a pass to their feet.
 

farn

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
Yeah I dont think they can be the favorite until the QB situation is ironed out. I just dont believe in Cam at this point. Even with better weapons. There were times last year where the limited receivers that you folks had would get open and he would skip a pass to their feet.
Which is why I stated « if Cam isn’t in charge »...
 

venecol

The FRG has a little ****
I posted the same cap numbers (it was from Miguel of course).

Note that these are Cap Numbers. But only TOP 51 contracts count against cap space (TOP 51 rule).
So in order to get the actual Cap Hit as i call it (how much cap space you lose by replacing new contract with the lowest among 51)
you take away that contract - c. 0.8M.

So if the Cap Number of new contract you are adding is 3.8M - you actually lose just 3M of Cap Space.
I use the term Cap Hit for the amount of cap you actually lose.
Oh, Cap Hit. Now I get it. You're making sh*t up. Lol (jk)
 

Bill Lee

What, me worry?
It never gets old to see how BB lives in the heads of the Brady cultists rent free. Where everything that the Pats are doing -- even a year after Brady's departure -- still has to be about Tom. The reality is that most people that have moved on don't give a crap about the Bucs and the constant pot-stirring to create controversy is just annoying. Something that fortunately can get fixed with the "ignore user" feature (or alternatively with a mute on Twitter).
Absolutely. Suppose Brady doesn't win the SB last year for whatever reason, does that mean BB just sits on the hoard of cap space he has, or does he do what he's doing now, regardless of TB's performance?

It's a real lazy narrative to throw together, one that does not bear up under scrutiny. The ones spouting it are the ones that understand BB the least.

Bingo. There is nothing uncharacteristic about the way they are going about their business this year unless you believed in media narratives that were conveniently created by said media. As every year they are executing an offseason plan like ninjas with the major difference this time being the ability to spend on top end talent that might have not been available in FA if COVID hadn't wrecked the cap space of some teams.
I agree. It's also a sign that the Krafts are willing to put out major cash to improve the team.

And guess why they can do it this year ? Because they let Brady move on and spared themselves about 50-63M that would have gone his way over the course of that two year deal he wanted from them. All of what went down over 2020 played a role to bring us to where we are right now. COVID affecting the cap and giving them an even stronger position certainly helped.
Yes, given all the crap BB has taken for TB leaving, he should be now getting credit for having the cap space needed to take advantage of these unusual market circumstances. He knew the team needed to gain talent and he knew that wasn't possible while paying TB too. Tampa had sucked for so long that they had gathered the kind of talent TB needed through good drafts aided by good draft position. It's a win-win for both, yet so many people here want to wallow in negative energy whether they realize it or not, so we keep getting some real :poop: narratives getting dropped here all the time.

The only player they signed so far that kinda fits the aggressive narrative would be Agholor to me. But then again we don't know the exact contract structure yet and if you set aside the drops he should be pretty close to what they wanted Cooks to be. Someone that can be used to take the top off (something Cooks is better at) but also someone who can be used on crossers ect. navigating traffic (something Cooks couldn't do at all). So I see the fit and the intention of the signing.

Everyone else.. whether thats Judon (who I think we got slightly below market rate) or Smith is just the cost of doing business when acquiring talented players who are just entering their prime.
I think the Henry move (which came in after you wrote this) is aggressive, but still he's getting a better deal on him this year than he would next year.
 

RIpats88

In the Starting Line-Up
Listened to toucher and rich this morning and the narrative was predictable boston media

After weeks bemoaning how Bill is cheap and will ruin this team with his "value based" system. They were lambasting him for being aggressive and overpaying saying this won't work out and the team will fail and he should've stuck with his normal method

I GUARANTEE though if he did the media would blast bill for not improving the team while the Bucs got better
 

long distance

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
It never gets old to see how BB lives in the heads of the Brady cultists rent free. Where everything that the Pats are doing -- even a year after Brady's departure -- still has to be about Tom. The reality is that most people that have moved on don't give a crap about the Bucs and the constant pot-stirring to create controversy is just annoying. Something that fortunately can get fixed with the "ignore user" feature (or alternatively with a mute on Twitter).



Bingo. There is nothing uncharacteristic about the way they are going about their business this year unless you believed in media narratives that were conveniently created by said media. As every year they are executing an offseason plan like ninjas with the major difference this time being the ability to spend on top end talent that might have not been available in FA if COVID hadn't wrecked the cap space of some teams.

And guess why they can do it this year ? Because they let Brady move on and spared themselves about 50-63M that would have gone his way over the course of that two year deal he wanted from them. All of what went down over 2020 played a role to bring us to where we are right now. COVID affecting the cap and giving them an even stronger position certainly helped.



The only player they signed so far that kinda fits the aggressive narrative would be Agholor to me. But then again we don't know the exact contract structure yet and if you set aside the drops he should be pretty close to what they wanted Cooks to be. Someone that can be used to take the top off (something Cooks is better at) but also someone who can be used on crossers ect. navigating traffic (something Cooks couldn't do at all). So I see the fit and the intention of the signing.

Everyone else.. whether thats Judon (who I think we got slightly below market rate) or Smith is just the cost of doing business when acquiring talented players who are just entering their prime.


Some sensible takes still can be found :) Watch from 5:00 Tannebaum has been a nice addition.
(I wonder how long they keep him killing selling narratives with some sense and knowledge..)

 

mgcolby

Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!!
PatsFans.com Supporter
Listened to toucher and rich this morning and the narrative was predictable boston media

After weeks bemoaning how Bill is cheap and will ruin this team with his "value based" system. They were lambasting him for being aggressive and overpaying saying this won't work out and the team will fail and he should've stuck with his normal method

I GUARANTEE though if he did the media would blast bill for not improving the team while the Bucs got better
Those two don't belong on a sports radio station. They belong on regular music station doing a typical morning drive show. They are ok if you ignore their ignorant sports takes. But if tune in for say sports talk on a sports talk radio station they are basically idiots. Worse morning sports talk show possibly in the country. No idea how they got the job.
 

Top