First down ineffectiveness

[n1997y]

I went through the play by play posted by ESPN and extracted all the Patriots first down plays. The list is below. Also made a few interesting observations.

There were five Patriots possessions in the first half. The first two were scoring drives of 11 and 12 plays, respectively. The next three were all three-and-out, with the second of them resulting in a punt return touchdown by the Jags.

There were four Patriots possessions in the second half, of 5, 9, 5, and 4 plays. The 9 play drive resulted in a touchdown; the first 5 play drives ended in a punt and the other in a turnover on downs. The last drive was ended by the end of the game.

The Patriots ran 22 first down plays, plus one “no play” due to defensive PI on first down. They were generally unimpressive.

Through the first three quarters:

Apart from that PI no-play there were 14 first down plays run by the Patriots.

The average gained on first down was 1/2 (0.5) yard.

Three plays lost yardage.
Three plays gained nothing, two were incomplete passes and one a run for no gain.
Eight plays gained yardage.
The longest gain was 3 yards.
The net gained by all first down plays was 7 yards. The total gained was 17 yards, but three plays lost a total of 10 yards.
Five plays were passes, pass attempts, sacks, or scrambles. The net gain for those plays was zero (one sack lost as many yards as one scramble and one completion gained; there were two incompletions).
Nine plays were runs, for a net gain of 7 yards. The total gained by six positive plays was 12 yards. One play was stuffed for no gain. Two plays lost yardage, for a total of -5 yards.

In the fourth quarter things were a bit better:

There were nine first down plays run by the Patriots in the fourth quarter. They were all passes.
Three plays went for first downs.
Two were incomplete passes.
The shortest gain was 5 yards, apart from the incompletions.

The list of plays:
Q1

(14:55 - 1st) D.Maye scrambles right guard to NE 34 for 2 yards (T.Walker)
(13:04 - 1st) D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to J.Polk (R.Darby).
(12:11 - 1st) R.Stevenson right guard to JAX 31 for 3 yards (D.Lloyd).
(10:04 - 1st) (Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at JAX 21 for -5 yards (D.Lloyd).
(5:02 - 1st) R.Stevenson right tackle to NE 16 for 1 yard (D.Lloyd).
(3:36 - 1st) (Shotgun) A.Gibson right tackle to NE 36 for no gain (V.Miller; A.Armstead).
(2:18 - 1st) (Shotgun) A.Gibson right guard to 50 for 1 yard (V.Miller; D.Lloyd).
(1:10 - 1st) A.Gibson right tackle to JAX 35 for 3 yards (J.Hines-Allen, D.Hamilton).

Q2

(15:00 - 2nd) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to R.Stevenson to JAX 22 for 3 yards (J.Ledbetter).
(9:21 - 2nd) D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to K.Boutte. PENALTY on JAX-M.Brown, Defensive Pass Interference, 9 yards, enforced at NE 30 - No Play.
(9:17 - 2nd) R.Stevenson right tackle to NE 38 for -1 yards (A.Armstead).
(3:32 - 2nd) R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 31 for 1 yard (A.Cisco; D.Hamilton).
(1:34 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Hasty right tackle to NE 26 for -4 yards (D.Hamilton).



Q3 (only one possession!)

(9:42 - 3rd) R.Stevenson right guard to NE 33 for 3 yards (T.Walker; D.Hamilton).
(8:31 - 3rd) D.Maye pass incomplete short right to J.Polk (J.Jones).

***13 first down plays plus one DPI thru Q3***

Q4

(11:10 - 4th) D.Maye pass short right to H.Henry to NE 11 for 5 yards (V.Miller; R.Darby).
(10:15 - 4th) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to K.Boutte.
(9:03 - 4th) (No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep left to K.Boutte to JAX 17 for 33 yards (M.Brown).
(8:36 - 4th) (No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short left.
(3:58 - 4th) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short left to K.Bourne to NE 26 for 14 yards (T.Campbell).
(3:29 - 4th) (No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Maye pass short middle to J.Hasty to NE 33 for 7 yards (D.Lloyd; A.Johnson).
(1:41 - 4th) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short left to A.Hooper to NE 39 for 9 yards (J.Jones)
(0:57 - 4th) (No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Maye pass short left to A.Hooper to JAX 39 for 11 yards (D.Lloyd; T.Campbell).
(0:35 - 4th) (No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to J.Hasty to JAX 32 for 7 yards (D.Lloyd).

***22 first down plays plus one DPI total***

 

[Clonamery]

Nice work. Running right was hitting your head against a wall. The OC is impressively unimpressive or as the say in Chelsea (Manhattan), he ****ing blows.

 

[n1997y]

Nice work. Running right was hitting your head against a wall. The OC is impressively unimpressive or as the say in Chelsea (Manhattan), he ****ing blows.

Thanks. I started looking at it to check my intuitive appraisal of how bad the play calling had been. Was actually a bit surprised that there were so many first down passes as I’d been thinking every call was an interior run for no gain. Turns out it was only 60% with the other 40% being pass plays for no gain. Still pretty much dogshit.

 

[Clonamery]

Thanks. I started looking at it to check my intuitive appraisal of how bad the play calling had been. Was actually a bit surprised that there were so many first down passes as I’d been thinking every call was an interior run for no gain. Turns out it was only 60% with the other 40% being pass plays for no gain. Still pretty much dogshit.

When Maye hit Henry and Boutte on the TD drive in the 4th qtr, I thought, where had this aggression been since the 1st qtr? It was depressing/frustrating after the 10 pt lead, it was a series of run to the rights and swing passes. I think most thought the Pats had a better than good chance to win the game prior to Sunday.

We can't run and we can't stop the run.

 

[n1997y]

When Maye hit Henry and Boutte on the TD drive in the 4th qtr, I thought, where had this aggression been since the 1st qtr? It was depressing/frustrating after the 10 pt lead, it was a series of run to the rights and swing passes. I think most thought the Pats had a better than good chance to win the game prior to Sunday.

We can't run and we can't stop the run.

It seemed like we had two good drives to start the game and then stopped doing what was working.

Maybe the Jags adjusted and our jags didn’t, so they took away things that worked, but I think a lot of it also seemed to be that they started making plays and we stopped making plays.

Bourne made some comments about players needing to do some self-evaluation:

Like, we had good, long drives, and that’s when we need to play our hardest. But with those drives, we start to get tired. There’s self-evaluating we need to do.

I think he’s right, and I don’t think it’s physical. Reports are that Mayo had them run the hill just like BB did. There’s no reason they should be gassed after two scoring drives in the first quarter. It’s mental, their intensity and concentration and focus. Thats where Mayo being an easy going players coach contrasts with Bill. The styles contrast and the results contrast.

Observers are concerned about the talent level of the team, but I’m more concerned that the players are not using the talent they have. According to posts in another thread Osborn is suddenly a bum, but the last three years he was pretty consistent and this year he’s on pace to deliver less than half of that production. He’s upset because he knows he’s in a toxic environment and he’s not being utilized effectively.

My summary of first down ineffectiveness is a tangible measurement of coaching results; the intangibles are equally bad, or worse. This season is starting to make Fat Matt and his sidekick look good. Something has to change. Sadly it likely won’t be the HC even though it’s his inexperience that’s causing this.
/rant

Edit to add link to Boune quote:
Patriots WR Kendrick Bourne senses different energy around team.

 

[TommyD4207]

I like your post.
I'd also recommend including 2nd down and 3rd down ineffectiveness.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

It seemed like we had two good drives to start the game and then stopped doing what was working.

Maybe the Jags adjusted and our jags didn’t, so they took away things that worked, but I think a lot of it also seemed to be that they started making plays and we stopped making plays.

Bourne made some comments about players needing to do some self-evaluation:

I think he’s right, and I don’t think it’s physical. Reports are that Mayo had them run the hill just like BB did. There’s no reason they should be gassed after two scoring drives in the first quarter. It’s mental, their intensity and concentration and focus. Thats where Mayo being an easy going players coach contrasts with Bill. The styles contrast and the results contrast.

Observers are concerned about the talent level of the team, but I’m more concerned that the players are not using the talent they have. According to posts in another thread Osborn is suddenly a bum, but the last three years he was pretty consistent and this year he’s on pace to deliver less than half of that production. He’s upset because he knows he’s in a toxic environment and he’s not being utilized effectively.

My summary of first down ineffectiveness is a tangible measurement of coaching results; the intangibles are equally bad, or worse. This season is starting to make Fat Matt and his sidekick look good. Something has to change. Sadly it likely won’t be the HC even though it’s his inexperience that’s causing this.
/rant

Edit to add link to Boune quote:
Patriots WR Kendrick Bourne senses different energy around team.

I said this earlier, but it really seemed to me that AVP spent a long time working up the first 15 plays of the game….. and once he got through them, he had no idea what to do next, so he fell back on what he knew from the previous games.

 

[TommyD4207]

I said this earlier, but it really seemed to me that AVP spent a long time working up the first 15 plays of the game….. and once he got through them, he had no idea what to do next, so he fell back on what he knew from the previous games.

This has happened in every game so far. Exactly this.

 

[borg]

AVP

 

[n1997y]

I like your post.
I'd also recommend including 2nd down and 3rd down ineffectiveness.

Thanks.

One piece at a time…

 

[n1997y]

This has happened in every game so far. Exactly this.

Too bad he doesn’t just script two drives and then spend the game tossing a coin to see which script to call.

 

[Patsfan1645]

I totally agree that the first drive was pretty well designed but then there seemed to be no plan from there and they ran the same handful of plays over and over. Then you watch a team like Detroit and the Chiefs and you see how much they adjust and how creative they try to be in their play designs. The Chiefs are very thin at the skill positions and yet they still hang 28 on the 49ers. I get they have Mahomes but look at his stats this year and yet they keep on winning. For as good as he is they have a better coaching staff across the board and it shows.

 

[InRodWeRust]

Hard to believe our offense is so bad. How does the other defense know what to look for when we don't even know ourselves what we are doing?

 

[InRodWeRust]

Thanks. I started looking at it to check my intuitive appraisal of how bad the play calling had been. Was actually a bit surprised that there were so many first down passes as I’d been thinking every call was an interior run for no gain. Turns out it was only 60% with the other 40% being pass plays for no gain. Still pretty much dogshit.

That surprised me also. Lately its been feeling like 90% of our first down plays are a draw play of the middle for 0-2 yards.

 

[Ring 6]

When Maye hit Henry and Boutte on the TD drive in the 4th qtr, I thought, where had this aggression been since the 1st qtr? It was depressing/frustrating after the 10 pt lead, it was a series of run to the rights and swing passes. I think most thought the Pats had a better than good chance to win the game prior to Sunday.

We can't run and we can't stop the run.

The play calling had WAY too many dump off first progressions or screens.
I am impressed with Mayes ability to read coverage, think quickly and use the whole field.

Our scheme needs to become one that spreads the field threatens all areas of the pass defense and emphasizes pushing the ball downfield.

#1 metric for our success is going to be 10+ yard plays on first and second down.
AVP calls plays like a scared teenage girl, praying to get to 3rd and short.

 

[dliverey44]

The play calling had WAY too many dump off first progressions or screens.
I am impressed with Mayes ability to read coverage, think quickly and use the whole field.

Our scheme needs to become one that spreads the field threatens all areas of the pass defense and emphasizes pushing the ball downfield.

#1 metric for our success is going to be 10+ yard plays on first and second down.
AVP calls plays like a scared teenage girl, praying to get to 3rd and short.

You are dead on with this take. I told a fellow Pats fan in a fantasy league that I think AVP is the biggest thing slowing down the offense. Maye seems very advanced for a rook in his 2nd game, especially when it comes to using his eyes to manipulate the defense. I know they want to run to open the pass, but this offense needs to be spread like you suggested and allow the pass to open the run.

 

[captain stone]

That surprised me also. Lately its been feeling like 90% of our first down plays are a draw play of the middle for 0-2 yards.

Same here; that Stevenson dive up the middle on first down vs a stacked box Must be ****-Canned!

 

[PancakeBlockPaul]

Very nice analysis and much appreciated. I think when they were doing good at the start and the foot was on the pedal, avp thought he would change thinks up in case they “caught on”. Of course this screwed them. He tried getting cute and going conservative ie different. Think this falls under virgin/noob play caller mistake. We all know if your foot’s on the pedal/ throat, you don’t let up until they stop you. Now the D is a whole other topic I won’t talk about.