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Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by long distance, Apr 26, 2018.

  1. long distance

    long distance Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    happy draft day!

    here id like to share some pre-draft thoughts of general nature . hope you don't mind and can share yours.
    __________

    First thing one should keep in mind going into the draft is the actual roster (to balance the binkies infatuation and needs frenzy). Its a 2 year league so here's Pats 2 years roster (bolded players signed through 2019). You have age at start of 2018 league and cap hits in M$ for 2018, 2019 beside each name. (*=ST; bolded grey - possible 5y option; underlined players I could/like see extended)

    QB - 12Brady (41, 2019, $22--$22), 2Hoyer (33, 2019, $0.9--$3)

    RB - 34Burkhead* (28, 2020, 2.3--$3.2), 28White (26, 2020, $2.4--$4), --Hill (26, 2018, $1.3), 35Gillislee (27, 2018, $2.2), 38Bolden* (28, 2018, $0.9)
    FB - 46Develin* (30, 2018, $1.5)

    WR - 11Edelman* (32, 2019, $4.2--$4.7), 15Hogan* (29, 2018, $3.3), 19Mitchell (25, 2019; $0.7--$0.9); 13Dorsett* (24, 2018+1, $1.5--c.$9*), 80Matthews (26, 2018, $1), --Patterson* (KR/ST, 27, 2018, $3.2), 85Britt (30, 2018, $1.5), 81C.Hollister* (25, 2018, $0.5), 84McCarron* (slot,PR; 25, 2018, $0.5)

    TE - 87Gronkowski (29, 2019, $11--$12), 83Allen (28, 2019, $5--$7.4), 47J.Hollister* (24, 2019, $0.5--$0.6), 82Tye (27, 2018, $0.5), --Niklas (25, 2018, $0.9)

    OL - 62Thuney (25, 2019, $0.9--$0.9), 60Andrews (26, 2020, $2.3--$2.8), 69Mason (25, 2018; $2), 61Cannon (30, 2021; $5.8--$7.5), 68Waddle (27, 2018, $1.6), 75Karras (25, 2019, $0.6--$0.7), 74Croston (24, 2019, $0.5--$0.6), 63Garcia (24, 2020, $0.7--$0.9), 76Jelks (T, 25, 2019, $0.5--$0.6), 72J.King (25, 2018, $0.5), 64Ferentz (29, 2018, $0.5), --Tobin (T, 28, 2018, $0.7), Bowanko (T, 27, 2018, $0.7), John (T, 26, 2018, $0.7)


    DL - 90Brown (24, 2018+1, $2.4--c$7*), --Shelton (25, 2018+1, $2--c$7*), 93Guy (28, 2020, $3.6--$4.3), 99Valentine (24, 2019, $0.7--$0.9), 70A.Butler (24, 2019, $0.5--$0.6), 98Flowers (25, 2018, $2), --Clayborn (30, 2019, $4--$6), 91Wise* (24, 2020, $0.6--$0.8), 95Rivers* (24, 2020, $0.7--$0.9), 55Lee* (24, 2018, $0.6), 96Grissom* (25, 2018, $0.7), 51K.Davis (24, 2019, $0.5--$0.6)

    LB - 54Hightower (28, 2020, $8.5--$10.4), 53Van Noy* (27, 2019, $3.6--$6), 52E Roberts* (24, 2019; $0.6--$0.7), 59M.Flowers* (26, 2018, $1.8), 50Grigsby* (LB, 26, 2018, $0.6), 48Langi* (26, 2019, $0.5--$0.6),

    S - 32McCourty* (31, 2019, $12--$13.5), 23Chung* (31, 2020, $3.8--$3.6), 30Harmon (27, 2020, $3.8--$4.5), 37Richards* (25, 2018, $1.2), S 39Travis* (24, 2018, $0.5), 26D.Jones* (25, 2018, $0.5)

    CB - 24Gilmore (28, 2021, $12.5--$13.6), --J.McCourty (31, 2018 $3), 25Rowe* (25, 2018; $1.1), 31J Jones* (24, 2018; $0.6), 41Cy Jones* (25, 2019; $1.1--$1.3), 27R.Lewis* (CB/FS/ST; 24, 2018, $0.5), 22Wiltz (24, 2018, $0.5)

    ST - 3Gostkowski (34, 2018, $5), 6Allen (28, 2018, $2), 49Cardona (26, 2018; $0.7),
    36King (LB, 25, 2019, $1.2--$1.4), 43Ebner (S, 29, 2019, $2-$2.8), 18Slater (WR, 33, 2019, $2--$3)
     
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    Last edited: Apr 26, 2018

  2. long distance

    long distance Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    roster comments - OFFENCE


    QB - (at least) one developmental QB “needed“

    DRAFT: The only shock of the draft (apart of 2 OL in 1st round;)) would be no QB drafted. In a deep intriguing class w no sure bets maybe another UDFA QB could make sense (f.e. Shimonek, Kanoff, Litton)


    RB - Both Burkhead and White are signed through 2020 which is somewhat reassuring but another position in need of some addressing. There is a #3RB spot open for this year and very much so for the future (possibly bigger lead back).

    DRAFT: Going for a RB starter/future starter in the draft should not be a surprise.


    WR - While loaded for this season - just Edelman and Mitchell signed through 2019 means this position has to get addressed for the future. Hopefully Hogan can be extended on a Jules kind of deal but the fact they didn't extend him yet leaves a ? Dorsett's 5y option (9-10M) seems unlikely (but maybe some extension after possible) and for the others its more likely a 1y adventure (good season here most likely means signing elsewhere, bad season won't keep them either)

    DRAFT: BB doesn't seem to have lucky hand drafting WRs so a high round draft pick would be a surprise despite many top WR pre-draft visits and official contacts, workouts. Kirk could be intriguing high option being a 4 down quality player offering strong slot presence and very solid punt returning . depending where he (and the rest of the draft) falls. D.J. Moore could be a possibility as well w his physicality, slot&outside versatility, carrying the ball like RB - but according to latest buzz unlikely to be there where the Pats would be comfortable to pick him. And while this class is not great at the top it offers great values further down, especially at slot receiver - so my guess would be possibly one mid/late rounder and at least one UDFA.


    TE - While Gronk is of course staying for this year and is signed through 2019 . there will be some aftertaste after this offseason here and still remains to be seen how the contract issue plays out. So it is possible that this is Gronk's last year in NE (although extension for him to play here a few more years is not out of the question). Niklas and Allen should compete for #2 spot (with Allen in slight disadvantage for much higher contract) and Hollister could stick around for another year of development since he does offer ST value.

    DRAFT: Pretty unclear picture for second year in a row here. In any case draft at this position will be very telling. Do they go for future #1 TE (Goedert, Hurst) in the second round or a situational/developmental TE later?


    OL - I've written a lot on the subject here already. Pats have 7-8 tackles on the roster for 2018 and 3-4 signed through 2019 so on paper this should not be a priority like most scream. The problem is every single of those 3-4 possible future tackles has injury issues we know very little about and same goes for Waddle this year. The 3 late FA additions don't offer much reassurance to fans. Too many hidden Qs here to know what they will do: both talented sophomore T coming from injuries/illness say they are ready to go (Garcia, Jelks) but who knows how BB feels about that. IOL situation is a bit clearer, there is some quality depth there but the fact that Mason enters a contract year without extension and that G/C salaries skyrocketted this offseason certainly opens IOL draft thoughts.

    DRAFT: Its a bad class with only one T possibly ready to start (McGlinchy) and latest buzz says he goes top 10. And there are doubts that his stature and ceiling corresponds to what Pats want to do with their starting T in the future (esp. if they draft explosive QB like LJ. They openly scouted all top LTs so that would suggest they want to add one future starter which would be quite disappointing to me - especially in 1st round - after taking 5 T rookies last year and with great opportunity to add quality D pieces this yr. My Draft wish would be going for only one OL that could step in as T in 2018 and then take over T or G in the future. That would mean Garcia and Jelks are on for the future and draft capital can be spent on other positions ignored last yr and previous yrs..
     
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  3. long distance

    long distance Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    time out

    ..
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2018
  4. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    TE is a bit of an issue. We’re pretty much fine with Gronk here but with that uncertain, it has the potential to be an issue long-term and I don’t really see a solution in this draft to get a top quality TE. Goedert maybe. I like Ian Thomas but I don’t think he has the potential to be an impact player necessarily, more a good starter. Maybe it’s a position to pass on for this year now that Gronk is returning.
     
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  5. long distance

    long distance Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Rapsheet says hello . it will definitely be the wildest run for Pats fans in 18 years..

     
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  6. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I think I like Thomas better than you do. He doesn't have to be Gronk for our offense to be good. I think he can be Marty.
     
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  7. long distance

    long distance Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    roster comments - DEFENCE + ST

    DL - This looks like a solidly filled unit for 2018 and possibly also for 2019 w 5 solid DTs signed through 2019 on good deals - since 5y options for Shelton and Brown are likely to be picked up.

    DRAFT: But things change quickly and between Shelton's to prove himself, BBs concerns w Brown's consistency and VV injury issues I wouldn't be surprised at all if they take defensive tackle before they take offensive one - especially big versatile inside rusher like Payne, Bryan etc. that would make a great inside pairing with Shelton if they don't see Brown improving enough. Its a nice opportunity in this draft IMO although next yr might be even better.


    DE - Plenty of bodies but also Qs about the future. I have a feeling that they might be willing and able to keep T.Flowers on another deal since the league probably doesn't see him as top edge rusher. Then again there are some ex Pats coaches around that might pay him more than BB. Wise had a nice and extensive rookie campaign and surprisingly healthy and certainly looks like good future. Rivers hopefully shows what most here expected last year and takes Ninko's position on another level. Clayborn for 2 yrs is nice but probably not really future. K. Davis is a wild card. They didn't keep him for nothing all year on IR so he could be the equivalent to this yrs mid round pick in an underwhelming DE class.

    DRAFT: Poor DE class with some nice PT options if they fall enough (edge reamer can fill in the names).


    LB - Most people expect double dipping and high but looking at the roster two solid MLB/OLB starters are signed through 2019, Roberts and Langi as well. There are some injuries concerns (and silly Roberts hate) but far from a double “need“. Its a pity that M.Flowers re-signed only for a year and Grigsby might be ST only (although he did step in on D once or twice).

    DRAFT: Two things that were desperately missing last season were LB speed and definite answer at star position. M.Flowers stepped up very well there after Richards and others experiments but for the future this position would have to be addressed (through LB, S or hybrid pick). It remains to be seen what Rivers and Lee can offer at OLB position. Drafting one fast LB or hybrid would certainly be expected. The fact that they didn't bring any new vet LBs could mean there is the double dip option if opportunity is there (its a deep class so at least one UDFA LB is more than likely) but there are some Pat options still out there on vet market.


    S - Three starting jobs for 2018 are likely filled - and all three S starters are signed through 2019 so no immediate needs here. Richards in his contract year and he might move to ST only player unless he makes a magic leap this preseason. So somebody could be brought in in his place. The Q we don't know much about is how they view two intriguing PS players Travis and D.Jones also in light of D-Mac getting older and very expensive..

    DRAFT: Not as good S class as last year so if they want a future starter option they'll probably have to pick high.


    CB - While 2018 seems like a log jam at the position (if that is at all possible at CB) only Gilmore and Cyrus Jones are signed through 2019. Id expect they can extend JJ but at this position you never know.

    DRAFT: Id expect this to be one of priority positions in Pats draft not only for future need but also since it is probably the best and deepest position in the draft. Maybe that is the reason they don't go for it in 1st round although a 5y cheap deal for top CB might be behind only QB economically. Expect a new set of UDFAs at position that traditionally makes the roster (although mostly on other teams..;)


    ST - Ther is surprisingly little talk on the 3 key ST positions . which is shameful. Its true Pats notoriously re-signed all their ST only guys - all 3 specialist ST positions are in the air for the future, kicker, punter and long snapper entering their contract years without extension. No reason to panic of course but still a bit strange situation..

    DRAFT: Not surprisingly Pats were openly scouting some kickers and punters and it should be no surprise to bring in someone in camp although I would suspect they will eventually extend both “footballers“.
     
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  8. long distance

    long distance Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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  9. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    I like him quite a bit but I’m prepared to sacrifice TE this time around.
     
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  10. captain stone

    captain stone Pro Bowl Player

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    I'm not adverse to drafting a TE, especially a pass-catching-first type (we already have Allen & Nicklas for blocking), but I would not even begin to look for one until #63 at the earliest.

    I want our first 3 picks to be spent on:
    LB at 23 (plan A is LVE; plan B is Rashaan Evans),
    Justin Reid at 31 (plan B is Isaiah Wynn; plan C is best available CB),
    and Edge at 43.

    I want NOTHING WHATSOEVER to do with either QB, WR or RB with ANY of our picks inside of the top 100...NOTHING.
     
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  11. oceansizer

    oceansizer Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    With a healthy WR corp a Marty caliber TE would be enough. To find another Gronk is rather impossible. Taking a QB in this draft I assume no one expects another TB12, only a competitive with a great leadership QB.
     
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  12. long distance

    long distance Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Captain the GM killing Captain the couch..;)
     
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  13. maineman209

    maineman209 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Having a couple TEs who can catch, but not block, and then a couple other TEs who can block but not catch, seems like it would present some tactical difficulties.
     
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  14. long distance

    long distance Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Before this turns into TE-dious thread ;) . this is something to keep in mind during the process (and plenty others)

     
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    Last edited: Apr 26, 2018
  15. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Five years ago that would have been a list of pro bowlers. Now, I'm not so sure. Reid interests me, though, since he was basically playing linebacker with the 9ers. Upgrade to Richards?
     
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  16. long distance

    long distance Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    continuing this chamber party . if someone strolls to chill from main board frenzy
    this is significant in draft day preparation as well.. position economics or market inefficiency
    BB knows so well

    RB, TE, ILB and S from this offseason least economic picks.. but it can always jump like IOL this year

     
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  17. long distance

    long distance Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    One question for fellow draft boarders: my certain disappointment with this class was having hard time to find the prospects who clearly correspond to BBs first 2 commandments - tough and smart.

    So, who do you have clearly on this list?
     
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    Last edited: Apr 26, 2018
  18. maineman209

    maineman209 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Isaiah Wynn, Justin Reid. Only two I can think of off the top of my head.
     
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  19. maineman209

    maineman209 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    One side note wrt RBs ...

    Leonard Fournette (#4 overall in 2017) will have the 6th-highest cap hit among RBs in 2018 ... $6.17M after one year's experience.

    Zeke Elliot (#4 overall in 2016) will have the 3rd highest cap hit among RBs in 2018 ... $6.81M after two year's experience.

    In contrast,
    - Alvin Kamara, taken at #67 overall in 2017, has a cap hit of $878k in 2018.
    - Kareem Hunt, taken at #86 overall in 2017 has a cap hit of $778k in 2018.
    - Jordan Howard, taken at #150 overall in 2016, has a cap hit of $692k in 2018.
     
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  20. long distance

    long distance Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Thanks mains!

    BGC, reamer, manx, others?
     
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