Draft measurements during the Belichick regime (and assorted stats that may interest only me)

[patchick]

Interesting OL chart. I should probably update my thread title.

Wow, that chart is simultaneously super useful and absolutely maddening. First off, visualization 101: an angry red color should correspond to BAD, not good. And it would be helpful if the dark versions of the colors were in the middle so that brightness indicated extremity.

But that's all trivial compared to the axes. Why on earth is the Y axis a function of the X axis??? It makes the spatial layout practically uninterpretable. Why not just snaps vs pressures?

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Wow, that chart is simultaneously super useful and absolutely maddening. First off, visualization 101: an angry red color should correspond to BAD, not good. And it would be helpful if the dark versions of the colors were in the middle so that brightness indicated extremity.

But that's all trivial compared to the axes. Why on earth is the Y axis a function of the X axis??? It makes the spatial layout practically uninterpretable. Why not just snaps vs pressures?

I'm glad I can count on someone to share my rage.

(The actual stats are kind of interesting, though.)

 

[zimmy]

I really like AJ Brown but my feeling is the sweet spot for the type of receiver we covet will be the bottom 3rd of the 2nd round. We don't necessarily need a big body. We prioritise quickness, strength to get off the line and good route running ability (as well as versatility).

I think Samuel, Isabella, McLaurin, Campbell are in that 2nd round mix for us. Then there is a host of other interesting guys in the 3-4 round range which means we can afford to wait until after the 1st round.

 

[manxman2601]

Is a 30 visit.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Is a 30 visit.

I get what he's saying, but averaging is the wrong method -- c.f. your own post here: Jim Nagy, Tedy Bruschi on how Patriots draft

Dobson (an X) wasn't drafted for the same role as Tate (mostly a return specialist). Edelman was an athlete who bounced between receiver and corner and returner. Etc. So a simple average blurs all the lines and doesn't really do the position of "WR" justice, just as comparing a DE and a NT doesn't make sense even if they're both "DL" on the surface.

But Boykin does intrigue as a mid-round gamble, I'll give you that.

EDIT: I'd like to add that the receivers we've traded for or brought in as FAs are also role specific. Mark Daniels thinks we have an average height, but he ignores that for outside X receivers we've drafted, traded for, claimed off waivers, or signed in preseason: Moss (6'4), Britt (6'4) Gordon (6'3), Dobson (6'3), Floyd (6'3), etc. Yes, we prioritize quickness -- usually associated with shorter players -- for the slot and Z position, but there's not necessarily a preference for short players for all receiver roles.

I'm actually still entertaining a scenario in which we trade up with Seattle for Metcalf.

 

[manxman2601]

I get what he's saying, but averaging is the wrong method -- c.f. your own post here: Jim Nagy, Tedy Bruschi on how Patriots draft

Dobson (an X) wasn't drafted for the same role as Tate (mostly a return specialist). Edelman was an athlete who bounced between receiver and corner and returner. Etc. So a simple average blurs all the lines and doesn't really do the position of "WR" justice, just as comparing a DE and a NT doesn't make sense even if they're both "DL" on the surface.

But Boykin does intrigue as a mid-round gamble, I'll give you that.

EDIT: I'd like to add that the receivers we've traded for or brought in as FAs are also role specific. Mark Daniels thinks we have an average height, but he ignores that for outside X receivers we've drafted, traded for, claimed off waivers, or signed in preseason: Moss (6'4), Britt (6'4) Gordon (6'3), Dobson (6'3), Floyd (6'3), etc. Yes, we prioritize quickness -- usually associated with shorter players -- for the slot and Z position, but there's not necessarily a preference for short players for all receiver roles.

I'm actually still entertaining a scenario in which we trade up with Seattle for Metcalf.

I think th point is, that Boykin is a pretty decent fit. I have no idea what will happen with Gordon his year and beyond but Boykin would be nice insurance.

I think it’s interesting that aside from Boykin, they’re looking at bigger slot guys (of the receivers we know about). Perhaps they’re looking at receivers that can play slot/z, but can also fill in at X until Gordon returns. So for example, pre-Gordon, AJ Brown plays the X, Dorsett the slot and Edelman the Z (or visa versa) nd then when Gordon returns, the rookie and Dorsett slug it out for playing time.

 

[patchick]

I get what he's saying, but averaging is the wrong method

Agreed 100%. What on earth is the point of averaging players like Philip Dorsett and Brandon LaFell? You end up with a player nothing like either of them.

I'd even argue looking at Patriots WR draft picks for guidance isn't much use to begin with, because they've all but abandoned drafting the position for years. And as the Dorsett and LaFell examples show, there's no particular physical pattern to their style of vet acquisitions either. Better to look for smart players, good route runners, and blocking skills. That seems to be what gets you on the field.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I'd even argue looking at Patriots WR draft picks for guidance isn't much use to begin with, because they've all but abandoned drafting the position for years.

You could have told me that before I made an entire thread about it!

There's some merit to what you're saying, however. We're likely guilty of confusing descriptive with prescriptive. The team has largely ignored drafting receivers for a while. My hunch is that we got some insight into what they're looking for when they claimed Darboh and Hansen last year (still disappointed about Darboh's injuries). Their tape may be a more relevant starting point than Jackson or Sam or Boyce.

BB said in his draft press conference that the league has trended toward big corners in order to combat the super sized receivers we see across the league, and he mentioned, rather in passing, that we may see the rise of smaller, quicker route runners to take advantage of the mismatch. That got my head spinning, since I've been fairly confident this draft cycle that we would target a bigger receiver. Our official 30 visits and pro day workouts seem to support that idea. Yet maybe we're going to go after the Isabella/Hardman/Renfrow types to exploit matchups. Or maybe that means we'we get our own big corner in J Williams so we can recreate the Browner years.

All that to say that I still know nothing. I'm just a well informed idiot.

Oh, forgot to address this part: "Better to look for smart players, good route runners, and blocking skills. That seems to be what gets you on the field."

I'd add to that a fighting spirit. Edelman said one of the things that impressed the Patriots was how hard he played in losing efforts. When I see players who give everything on the field, I want them on my team. That's one reason I've kept coming back to Harry, even if he doesn't fit any of the prototypes. He throws people around to get open or to pick up YAC. Even one of his highlight videos is called Physical. I respect that!

 

[manxman2601]

You could have told me that before I made an entire thread about it!

There's some merit to what you're saying, however. We're likely guilty of confusing descriptive with prescriptive. The team has largely ignored drafting receivers for a while. My hunch is that we got some insight into what they're looking for when they claimed Darboh and Hansen last year (still disappointed about Darboh's injuries). Their tape may be a more relevant starting point than Jackson or Sam or Boyce.

BB said in his draft press conference that the league has trended toward big corners in order to combat the super sized receivers we see across the league, and he mentioned, rather in passing, that we may see the rise of smaller, quicker route runners to take advantage of the mismatch. That got my head spinning, since I've been fairly confident this draft cycle that we would target a bigger receiver. Our official 30 visits and pro day workouts seem to support that idea. Yet maybe we're going to go after the Isabella/Hardman/Renfrow types to exploit matchups. Or maybe that means we'we get our own big corner in J Williams so we can recreate the Browner years.

All that to say that I still know nothing. I'm just a well informed idiot.

Oh, forgot to address this part: "Better to look for smart players, good route runners, and blocking skills. That seems to be what gets you on the field."

I'd add to that a fighting spirit. Edelman said one of the things that impressed the Patriots was how hard he played in losing efforts. When I see players who give everything on the field, I want them on my team. That's one reason I've kept coming back to Harry, even if he doesn't fit any of the prototypes. He throws people around to get open or to pick up YAC. Even one of his highlight videos is called Physical. I respect that!

1. I’m fascinated by Joejuan and that Browner thing. He’s about the only corner we’ve shown interest in. That Browner thing seems to be the only reason for that. And don’t forget, we used Rowe on bigger WRs too so it wasn’t just a Browner thing.

2. Hollywood Brown will be my no1 receiver. I’d like to see him show more wiggle and wish he didn’t play in the Big 12 where defenses are an afterthought, but that quick twitch explosiveness and speed is very similar to Tyreek Hill and that will be hard for any CB to defend, even in the NFL.

3. I’m with you on physicality which is why I love Stanley Morgan.

 

[captain stone]

I think McLaurin goes much higher than that. Top 50 pick.

I wanted to give both an Agree and a Sad, because I really hope McLaurin lasts until our group of 56/64/73, but that hope might no longer be realistic.

 

[sircole]

I'm high on Jakobi Meyers for many of the reasons that have been discussed because of his smarts, toughness, route running and hands.

When you can potentially upgrade the slot receiver position with a prospect that has a better catching rate/catch radius than Hunter Renfrow (statistically and higher volume) and bigger size (~6'2") in a Jarvis Landry/Cooper Kupp mold, I think that's worth a late 3rd/4th round pick.





Prospect Profile: 2019 NFL Draft WR Stats Report - Fantasy Columns

NFL Events: Combine Player Profiles - Jarvis Landry
NFL Events: Combine Player Profiles - Cooper Kupp
NFL Draft & Combine Profile - Jakobi Meyers | NFL.com

 

[sircole]

Here are some N'Keal Harry stats/tweets that @reamer should enjoy concerning market share/production and age.

 

[sircole]

From those tweets above, this site is great if you want to see different stats and make comparisons between draft prospects.

Data VIZ

 

[SBLIII]

Here are some N'Keal Harry stats/tweets that @reamer should enjoy concerning market share/production and age.

Hakeem Butler at 24 or 25 should be an absolute monster then.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

@patchick if you want a fresh take on the use of analytics in drafting. Excellent article.

Evaluations: NFL Draft Analytics Top 300 - Fantasy Columns

 

[patchick]

@patchick if you want a fresh take on the use of analytics in drafting. Excellent article.

Evaluations: NFL Draft Analytics Top 300 - Fantasy Columns

Thanks, that's super interesting! After my snit over the analysis that averaged together measurables of Patriots WRs, I particularly appreciate the way he separated into categories within positions.

But what I really like is how much his results support my own biases. E.g. super-athletic (non necessarily super-sized) tackles, and the huge value of measurables in predicting edge rusher success. I was intrigued to find that the exact four receivers I keep drifting back to with interest--Isabella, Harry, Butler and A. Brown--came out as his top four. And in general, it seems like his model at least does an excellent job of predicting the Patsfans Draft Forum favorites! E.g. Joejuan Williams, Khalen Saunders.

I'll definitely bookmark to look back on after the draft.

 

[manxman2601]

@patchick if you want a fresh take on the use of analytics in drafting. Excellent article.

Evaluations: NFL Draft Analytics Top 300 - Fantasy Columns

Just looking at that board and thinking about the positions we’re likely to draft, the best value picks seem to be

QB - Will Grier*, Ryan Finley
WR - Andy Isabella*, N’Keal Harry (Stanley Morgan, Ashton Dulin* or Dillon Mitchell for day 3)
TE - Irv Smith, Jace Sternberger
OL - Kaleb McGary, Cody Ford, Chris Lindstrom, Tytus Howard
Edge - Chase Winovich, Zach Allen, Ben Banogu, Justin Hollins
DL - Khalen Saunders*
DB - Joejuan Williams

* Represents tremendous value and if you have faith in this system, would be must draft guys.

Best Value Day 3 Prospects (not in order)

Ben Banogu
Justin Hollins
Renell Wren
Max Crosby
Ryan Finley
Ben Burr-Kirven
Dillon Mitchell
David Long (LB)
Stanley Morgan
Ashton Dulin*
Mitch Hyatt
Keesean Johnson

I don’t know how reliable this guy’s projections are, but if I had faith in them, these are the guys I’d be picking at positions of need. And I would absolutely Draft Will Grier, Khalen Saunders, Andy Isabella, Ashton Dulin.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Maxx Crosby is doing an AMA right now on the draft subreddit. He said that Scharping was the best tackle he went against in his career. Pretty interesting! If you see this in the next hour, head on over and make a post.

 

[captain stone]

Just looking at that board and thinking about the positions we’re likely to draft, the best value picks seem to be:

QB - Will Grier*...
WR - Andy Isabella*...
Edge - Chase Winovich...Ben Banogu, Justin Hollins

* Represents tremendous value and if you have faith in this system, would be must draft guys.

Best Value Day 3 Prospects (not in order)

Ben Banogu
Justin Hollins
Ben Burr-Kirven...

No.

 

[manxman2601]

No.

Yes.