So I thought I had everything wrapped up in a nice, tidy package. But the sirens have been going off all morning.
Time to deal with the troublemakers.
Simple fact is you don't know the play call or play book. Hate to break it to you,it's not as simple as just cover three, cover two, quarters etc in the NFL....there's often combined coverage and not all teams play traditional cover two....so unless you have a play book and the call at hand, it's hard t take a amateurs analysis seriously.
This is important to note, and I usually begin with just such a disclaimer. I am going off of general principles and I don't REALLY know what coverage was called, or even called for, on the play. I can't ask the players who saw what and when, and did what they did why. All I can do is study what "film" I have and present it in the best manner possible, using educated guesses. I am not affliated with the team in any way, have no inside source, and posters may be relieved to learn Tavon Wilson will not be running penalty laps just because I think he should from my Monday/Tuesday morning chair.
If this was supposed to be a Cover 3 Shell, then ALL the DBs had it wrong. What's more likely? That all 4 DBs got the call wrong? Or maybe the Pats faked the Cover 3 and dropped both safeties with the Corners in Man coverage and the LBs playing Zone in the Flat..
One last thing. The Pats regularly run combinations of ZONE with the LBers and safeties with the CBs in MAN coverage. It's not an either or with them. That has been going on for YEARS..
Okay, I am definately not saying all the DBs had it wrong. As UK_Pat37 notes, I believe Tavon Wilson is wrong, specifically that he got snookered on Locker's pump fake. I noted originally that maybe he could have been asked to rob in cuts in a modified Cover 2, but that doesn't really jive with Arrington's positioning, and it certainly doesn't jive with what Gregory is doing at the bottom of the screen.
Some of the stuff I'm about to cover I already noted — in fact to save time I'm reusing some pictures — and UK_Pat37 has picked up on some of it on his own, apparently without carefully reading my long-winded posts.
Here's the first picture, several seconds before the snap, retagged somewhat. At the bottom of your screen is Devin McCourty and a single Titans receiver, Damian Williams, #17. If the CBs are in man coverage, McCourty should have this guy all the way.
This is a reused picture, Jake Locker finally throwing the ball. I call people's attention once again to the fullback and tailback, who have leaked out of the backfield and are standing around, waiting for a dumpoff. Since we can see that the Titans were in a five-man line, and these two guys are standing here, that leaves three receivers somewhere downfield, theoretically being subjected to quite a bit of bracket coverage.
Here's that blurry Sasquatch action shot. The slot receiver and Nate Washington are obviously to the top. We see both Devin McCourty, the nearside CB, in the flat, going nowhere very quickly, and we see Steve Gregory pointed in the opposite direction, apparently running somewhere. If we put on our detective hats, we may arrive at the conclusion that Steve Gregory is running with a receiver on a go route, and Devin McCourty is eyeing that fullback at the edge of his flat.
And this is a new shot, the aftermath of the play, with #17 Damian Williams rolling into the picture with Steve Gregory right on his heels. Where is CB Devin McCourty? Last seen he was 40 yards upfield, some 8 yards off the fullback. Very strange behavior if we think the CBs are in man coverage. But not strange behavior if we diagnose zone coverage, with MCourty passing off his receiver to Gregory as soon as he left the flat.
… where you fall flat is where you criticise Tavon for staying disciplined. What you cannot say is where he is when he ball is released...which is why you n coaches film. It's impossible to say whether he has maintained his responsibility by that clip and whether he has maintained an adequate amount of depth to assist with the play either side. You also don't know what route the receiver on the opposite side of the field has run...if he has run a post then it is Tavon's responsibility to cut that off in cover three.
You're right in what you're saying interns f yes, it's zone, but what you don't know is the play call...IMO not all teams play the same principles and change things up to suit them. Without coaches tape, it's hard to say anything other than the fact it is zone, and it is cover three.
I just rewatched the play on my gamepass...it looks an awful lot like 'cover 2 man'…
As we have seen, the opposite receiver is also running a deep route, and since Gregory is running straight back well past 15 yards, it looks like a go route, same as Nate Washington. If Tavon Wilson's responsibility as the deep middle is to be deepest man on the field — quite a common responsibility, since as you noted he has responsibility to both sides, and can't look everywhere at once, so this player is often asked to be conservative — then Tavon Wilson has not done a good job with his coverage responsibility.
Cover 2 Man is when two players provide a Cover 2 shell deep, and everyone else matches up in man. The only one anywhere close to playing man coverage on this play is Kyle Arrington, and there is nothing technique-wise that he's doing that makes me think he is, and even if he were doing so, someone else should be behind him as the Cover 2 shell player. As Tavon Wilson is the only other player in the vincinity, that would have to be him anyway. But they are not playing Cover 2 Man.
Now, I can certainly allow that it is possible there is Cover 2 going on everywhere except Kyle Arrington, who has drawn a man assignment and is doing his damnedest to make it look like zone coverage. But in that situation, somebody still has to have a deep half, since Gregory is no where close to the middle of the field, for good reason. The only player that fits the bill is Tavon Wilson, and he trails the ball by a good ten yards.
But it sure looks like Cover 3, rolled to the near side of the field, with Tavon Wilson making a rookie mistake.
