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Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by reamer, Jan 11, 2017.

  1. reamer

    reamer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    @BobDigital As promised, a long-form review of the redoubtable Carl Lawson.



    Carl Lawson

    Power. The best way to describe Lawson is that he’s short, but not small. He’s put in some serious time in the weight room, and the investment has paid of — one of the best physiques in the entire draft class. Alpha dog demeanor on the field. Always looking to dominate the competition. Film junkie. Highly motivated individual who firmly believes that he is a first round talent, and wants to prove it, based on his interviews. When his technique is right, he looks like a future all pro against both run and pass.

    As a mover, Lawson has some growth potential. He’s very good in one direction, but he’s a prime example of the classic “stiff hips” pass rusher. He had a poor 3-cone time despite a very solid short shuttle time, which shows up on tape: Lawson can change direction forward and backward or side to side with relative ease, but if forced to redirect multiple times or at any sort of angle or curve, he struggles. His game is about straight-line power and good hands. He beats blockers with leverage and force, but isn’t going to drop into coverage any time soon.

    Overall, his market value is a little too rich for me (will probably go in the 20 - 40 range), given that he’s strictly a DE at the next level, despite frequently rushing from a two-point stance. He doesn’t operate well enough in space, based on the games I’ve seen, to warrant LB duties, and he doesn’t have the length that the Patriots generally look for in more pure DE prospects. Still, he’s a very good player and should have a long and productive NFL career.



    31 1/2” arms
    10 3/8” hands
    Height: 6015
    Weight: 261
    40 Yrd Dash: 4.67
    225 Lb. Bench Reps: 35
    Vertical Jump: 33
    Broad Jump: 09'05"
    20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.19
    3-Cone Drill: 7.46



    + Significantly more disruptive than stats indicate; high pressure ratio but only 9 sacks
    + Powerful player who routinely wins leverage battle
    + Knocks offensive linemen to the ground on a fairly regular basis
    + Physical, nasty edge to his game
    + Explosive burst off the ball
    + Active hands; seeks contact and looks to shed immediately (to varying degrees of success)
    + Experience rushing from two-point stance on right and left
    + Never gets washed out against the run; can step right in against downhill schemes
    + Always gives max effort
    + Advanced array of pass rushing moves
    + Crashes down the line effectively as a standup LB against inside run plays
    + Pro-ready strength and mentality to become an immediate starter
    + Some experience as an interior rusher; complete speed mismatch for guards


    - Linear player; explosive in a straight line, but ineffective when required to redirect
    - Lack of bend hampers his ability to finish plays
    - Relatively short arms (31” ) for the position
    - Lack of length often inhibits him from cleanly disengaging from blocks (good effort though)
    - Gets swallowed up by long-armed, physical tackles
    - Ridden past the pocket fairly easily by athletic blockers
    - Takes a ton of unnecessary off-sides penalties due to over-aggressiveness
    - Susceptible to cut blocks
    - Loses track of the ball on screens, zone reads, and end arounds
    - Looks to get upfield even against run, and doesn’t string plays out to the sideline
    - Routinely beaten by speed backs on outside runs
    - Looks lost in space the few times he was asked to drop
    - Injury history (ACL, hip, etc) and will need to be cleared medically; only one full season of football in his college career


    Lawson at his best, beating a tackle with great hands and overwhelming burst. This is the type of play he’s capable of when his technique is right, but he needs to deliver on a more consistent basis.This kind of rush is how he’ll make his money at the next level.





    Although it was play-action, Lawson’s burst into the backfield is remarkable. He recognizes that the RB doesn’t have the ball, and almost gets his hands on the QB to disrupt the pass.





    Killer inside to outside move. Lawson sells the fake well and then uses quick, coordinated hands to win the edge. Tons of positives in this sequence.





    Beautiful stack and shed technique against the TE. As I mentioned, when Lawson uses proper extension, stays square to the line, and plays off the block to make the tackle, he’s extremely good and shows all pro potential. I’d like to see good technique more consistently, however.





    Shoutout to the Steelers Depot for their sack compilation video for Lawson. They might root for a rival team, but when it comes to draft content, they do a fantastic job: in-depth breakdowns, player evaluations, and useful video content (although I wish it were HD).

     
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  2. long distance

    long distance Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Possibly a case of getting stuck behind flashy starter (Clement) when in fact he should be starting..

    On to edge...
     
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  3. reamer

    reamer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    In terms of pure measurables, Daeshon Hall looks like a dream come true for a Patriots DE prospect. Unfortunately, when I watch his tape, I see a consistent theme in every game: he ends up chest-to-chest or shoulder-to-chest with the blocker on nearly every snap, effectively robbing him of his long arms. Occasionally he will play with good extension, and it's no coincidence that his best plays tend to come when his technique is right. He's kinda physical, but he prefers to try to run around blocks rather than stack and shed, and his pad level is wildly inconsistent.

    I've only gone through about half a dozen games, so I have a bit more work before posting a full breakdown, but so far he looks almost identical in terms of strengths and weaknesses in each game. End of the 3rd/early 4th seems about the right time to start thinking about his value, but I have a hard time grading him higher than that, given his need for a total revamp of technique. Still, there's a lot to like about the raw tools, and he could develop nicely in a couple years. We'll see how he takes to coaching.
     
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  4. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I just finished last week and have him right around 3rd-mid 3rd.

    I don't see the flashes some talk about.

    Biggest fear is that his upside isn't nearly as big as most think. I'd say closer to finished product rather than upside project?
     
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  5. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    As our first pick is in the third, these gradings seem appropriate.
     
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  6. reamer

    reamer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    I'm not opposed to seeing Hall on this team, but I'm awfully sure that there will be better players available at 72/96. Does he last until the next pick? If so, fine, but there's a good chance someone will fall to 72 who can actually help the team this year.
     
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  7. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    Very likely in this draft class although, considering this roster I'm less bothered about any help we'll get this year. But if you give him a 3rd round grade, you shouldn't really be opposed to taking him in the 3rd.
     
  8. reamer

    reamer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    True. I guess what I was trying to convey is that it seems likely that someone will be there still with a late 1st or 2nd round rating. Falling value > "good enough" if given a choice. In the end, it is all nitpicking. If he's a good player, then who cares if he's pick #1 or #199.
     
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  9. captain stone

    captain stone Pro Bowl Player

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    Bingo.

    Unfortunately, this is where Bill in his myopia has failed us time & time & time again. He is simply incapable of seeing the forest of more talented players who have fallen to him through the trees of less talented (and in many cases, Far less talented) players who will still be available later (and in many cases, Much later) in the draft.
     
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  10. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan TB12, BB = G.O.A.T.s PatsFans.com Supporter

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    You're going to have to get used to it Captain, it's going more in that direction. At the Ohio State coaches thing that Belichick was at, Urban Meyer said that Bill told him that at this point in his career he's only interested in coaching players he likes. Which fully explains the dumping of Easley and Collins. And on CNBC he talked about reliability which explains moving Jones. I had a feeling about this before it was put into words by Meyer.

    So prepare for less pure talent and more work ethic, good teammate types who will take coaching, work hard and do their job.

    The good news is after dumping the guys Bill didn't like, we won a Super Bowl 2 months ago.
     
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  11. maineman209

    maineman209 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    That's the thing. We can't possibly know who would or would not have been available later in the draft.

    We, and the Kiper crowd, see the draft as almost purely a hierarchy of perceived "talent". This guy gets a 2nd-round "talent" grade, whereas this other guy gets a 5th-round grade. So, a guy with a 5th-round grade should be selected in the 5th round. If he's actually taken a couple rounds earlier, then we assume that it's a significant "reach" and the GM is either a genius (if it works out) or an idiot (if it doesn't) because the prospect certainly would have been available later - according to his "grade".

    The fact is though, probably 50% (or more) of what determines when a prospect gets picked is the perception, on the part of the GM, of the demand for that prospect's services by other teams (the draft is essentially an auction, after all). So, if the GM really wants a specific prospect and he's certain that the prospect will be off the board by his next selection opportunity, he has to take that prospect right there and then (even if it's a couple rounds "early"), regardless of what we (or Kiper or Mayock) think about the prospect's talent level.

    We simply do not have access to the information about potential demand from other teams that BB does.

    This is all much easier to see with the jockeying for position/line-jumping in the 1st round, but it happens in pretty much every round. In fact, a major reason for teams trading up for what turns out to be a bust is "irrational exuberance" for a given prospect's perceived talent on the part of multiple teams. To a great degree, much of the expectation that a prospect will be taken in the 1st is often the result of publicity, that sometimes borders on propaganda, combined with a serious tendency toward group-think and oneupmanship on the part of team owners that blinds them and GMs to red flags that a more dispassionate evaluator would take into account.
     
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  12. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    Excellent post.
     
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  13. reamer

    reamer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    I keep coming back to Willis in all my mock drafts, despite the harsh evaluation I provided in this thread regarding his weaknesses. I'm convinced that he's got the maturity and work ethic to overcome them all and become a very good player. Great insight into his mindset; he's a very impressive young man. He's a Patriots type player through and through.

    Kansas State Edge Rusher Jordan Willis Is a Draft Riser | The MMQB with Peter King
     
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  14. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Willis is tough one but I keep going back to his tape.

    His measurables are great but I don't see that player on tape.

    Doesn't have the bend you want and as a result will get pushed up field too much.

    He's a worker though that will give effort & some skill sacks and a lot of pressure. Like O.V. ?
     
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  15. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    I think he goes top 40 unfortunately. I like him too, but I like Bowser ahead of him despite the different roles. Both could well be gone by pick 32 though assuming we get that pick for Butler.
     
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  16. reamer

    reamer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    I'd take Willis over Bowser in a heartbeat, but I totally understand the other side of that perspective. You're likely correct (as usual) that they go before we get a chance to pick, however. I'm still somewhat hopeful that there's a chance Willis is around, but we'll see how it all shakes out.
     
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  17. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    That will be the fun thing about Thursday/Friday. There will fallers and people drafted way ahead of expectations. As an aside, will you be watching Day one?
     
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  18. reamer

    reamer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Indubitably.
     
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  19. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    So Michael Lombardi likes Trey Hendrickson. Worth noting.

     
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  20. reamer

    reamer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Very interesting. I've heard rumblings that he has anger issues. Combine that with his struggles against the run, and I've moved him way down on my board, but I could see the appeal for him in this scheme. Other than arm length, he has the perfect measurables for a Patriots edge player, and he was certainly productive this season.
     
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