Defense Since Seattle

[Ring 6]

Since the Seattle game, the defense has allowed 70 points, 14 per game. In 5 games they have allowed just 7 TDs, 2 of which were after red zone turnovers, and 2 of which were garbage time (LA, SF). That leaves just 3 TDs in 5 games that were not short field or prevent defense vs backups.
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In those games, they have allowed just 290.2 yards per game, just 15 first downs per game, and just 64.4 rushing yards per game. 3.4 per carry, and in the last 4 run D has been 50 per game and 2.99 per carry.

They have allowed 19/65 3rd downs, 29.2%.

They have 8 takeaways after only having 9 in the first 9 games.

 

[FourierSeries]

Van Noy's presence is correlated with the defense playing even better than it had been playing before his arrival. And people laughed when I made this comment: Lions trade LB Kyle Van Noy (& 7th) to Patriots for 6th round draft pick

 

[Kontradiction]

They've improved in the two key areas many of us said they need to improve in: turnovers and third down defense. They're playing like a top unit now. Anytime you can generate pressure with four rushers, you'll play good defense and that's exactly what they've done.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Run defense has been crazy good. Van Noy / McClellin in? Collins out? Both? Both and more? Who knows but it's working.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

The defense has turned a corner and they look pretty impressive.

 

[brdmaverick]

They've improved in the two key areas many of us said they need to improve in: turnovers and third down defense. They're playing like a top unit now. Anytime you can generate pressure with four rushers, you'll play good defense and that's exactly what they've done.

I agree 100%, turonvers and third down defense. They seem to be getting more QB pressure as well.

In your eyes has the defense played differently or is it just the law of averages finally tilting in their favor.

To me it seems like a combo of creative schemes and increased QB pressure......that is leading to turnovers and third down stops.

 

[Vindicate]

I was a bit worried marching into this game as for some reason I kept imagining ES and DT finding every gap in our zone from miscommunication.

And they did roughly two or three times.

But the Patriots defense, beyond that, snuffed this team. That hit from McCourty was beautiful. We also caused a locker room implosion.

Talib was even abused, which is literally my favorite thing ever. We made Ward show true form again. Cannon STIFLED Von Miller (Great guy and player, still happy to seem him reduced to rubbish).

We also may have Floyd on the way? Opposing defenses are going to crumble even more as ours continues to trend up.

 

[FourierSeries]

I agree 100%, turonvers and third down defense. They seem to be getting more QB pressure as well.

In your eyes has the defense played differently or is it just the law of averages finally tilting in their favor.

To me it seems like a combo of creative schemes and increased QB pressure......that is leading to turnovers and third down stops.

They definitely have. Earlier in the season they were mostly playing a very plain defense. But as is always the case, they build the playbook throughout the season, and by the end, they usually get even better.

 

[Vindicate]

They definitely have. Earlier in the season they were mostly playing a very plain defense. But as is always the case, they build the playbook throughout the season, and by the end, they usually get even better.

Why is there, every season, a building of the playbook, starting from vanilla, for defense but not so much for offense?

I could be 100% wrong but the transformation seems more visible on the field for defense. Is there a strategy to this? Just curious.

 

[Ross12]

Sheard looked like a beast last night too. His benching really worked, it seems like.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Joe Flacco is the best QB we've played in the last 5 weeks. This defense has performed well, in that it's done exactly what a capable defense should do to the slate of awful offenses we've played. But there's a reason why we're still in the bottom half of defensive DVOA leaguewide even while being #1 in points against, and it's because this stretch has been defined as much by the terrible offenses and terrible QB's we're playing as by the Pats' actual performance.

Not trying to be a Debbie Downer here, I'm encouraged by how the defense is developing just like everyone else. I feel better about them now than I did 2 months ago, and now that we've basically ended Denver's season I don't really fear any defense we may have to play on the way to another SB run. I think the Pats are likely to outscore anyone left in our way, and the defense obviously has a role in that. But for whatever reason people at every level seem to just ignore strength of schedule when doing comparative analysis. This is one of the more egregious cases of it, right up with people who diminish Brady by pointing out how the Pats 'only' lost 5 wins between 2007 (when we played and beat every AFC playoff team) and 2008 (when we had the easiest schedule in the league).

 

[varjao]

Quarterbacks since Seattle:

- Colin Kaeperstink
- Fitzmagic
- Goff
- Flacco
- Semen

The defense is visibly better but we didn't face a competent QB except for Flacco and we all know regular season Flacco is not much better than Jay Cutler.

 

[long distance]

Now was that so hard?

 

[PF_SU]

But there's a reason why we're still in the bottom half of defensive DVOA leaguewide even while being #1 in points against, and it's because any reasonably good defense should look great against the trainwrecks they've been facing.

DVOA is slanted towards yards, I don't think the defence is something like #20. Think Defensive SRS captures the true ranking of the defence better. In terms of DSRS the team is sixth after yesterday's game (they were eighth or ninth before that). Right now in DSRS the top-ten is:

1) Broncos 6.2
2) Seahawks 5.9
3) Chiefs 4.7
4) Giants 4.5
5) Vikings 4.2
6) Patriots 3.9
7) Ravens 3.5
8) Cowboys 3.3
9) Steelers 3.0
10) Texans 2.0

DVOA through this week won't be available till Wednesday, but I doubt there will be significant change. DVOA top ten through last week is

1) Broncos -17.5
2) Ravens -15.5
3) Cardinals -14.2
4) Giants -13.5
5) Eagles -12.0
6) Seahawks -11.4
7) Vikings -11.0
8) Chargers -5.8
9) Steelers -4.7
10) Buccaneers -4.5

Looking at the respective lists I would personally lean towards DSRS.

 

[Vindicate]

Joe Flacco is the best QB we've played in the last 5 weeks. This defense has performed well, in that it's done exactly what a capable defense should do to the slate of awful offenses we've played. But there's a reason why we're still in the bottom half of defensive DVOA leaguewide even while being #1 in points against, and it's because any reasonably good defense should shut down the offenses we've been shutting down.

Not trying to be a Debbie Downer here, I'm encouraged by how the defense is developing just like everyone else. I feel better about them now than I did 2 months ago, and now that we've basically ended Denver's season I don't really fear any defense we may have to play on the way to another SB run. I think the Pats are likely to outscore anyone left in our way, and the defense obviously has a role in that. But for whatever reason people at every level seem to just ignore strength of schedule when doing comparative analysis. This is one of the more egregious cases of it, right up with people who diminish Brady by pointing out how the Pats 'only' lost 5 wins between 2007 (when we played and beat every AFC playoff team) and 2008 (when we had the easiest schedule in the league).

What team has a sensational offense with as complementary defense as ours? You could make a case for The Raiders maybe, but I think it's important to consider that as well.

When we do face these high octane offenses, I would assume their defense would be of lesser caliber operating under that either a team allocates more resources for defense or offense. I think as team (like ours) trends towards a ridiculous offensive, money-wise your defense suffers. Ours is performing very well in that circumstance.

I agree with your post as we cannot truly know how we would perform against someone with a great offense, but I think it's important to consider how if affects the defense.

What team do you think could give the Patriots defense superb fits while also hindering out ability to compete in a shootout?

 

[BradyFTW!]

What team has a sensational offense with as complementary defense as ours? You could make a case for The Raiders maybe, but I think it's important to consider that as well.

When we do face these high octane offenses, I would assume their defense would be of lesser caliber operating under that either a team allocates more resources for defense or offense. I think as team (like ours) trends towards a ridiculous offensive, money-wise your defense suffers. Ours is performing very well in that circumstance.

I agree with your post as we cannot truly know how we would perform against someone with a great offense, but I think it's important to consider how if affects the defense.

What team do you think could give the Patriots defense superb fits while also hindering out ability to compete in a shootout?

In the AFC, IMO it's probably just the Raiders and maybe the Chiefs. I'd feel better against the Chiefs, as I think we match up pretty well with them. Hill scares me, and after the 2014 regular season game it's hard not to be aware of what they can do. But given how quiet Ware and Miller were yesterday, and given how beatable the Chiefs' D is if their edge rushers aren't getting home, I think we'd drop 30+ on them so it should be a win.

The Raiders are the closest to a team in the AFC scaring me, I think. We would absolutely drop 30 on them, but I think they can drop 30 on us. Their defense is a major step down from ours, so as long as our offense could perform on par with theirs (and I think it should) we should win. They're probably the biggest reason why I think the Pats really need to lock up HFA - Carr has tiny hands and is known for struggling in the cold, and that was even before his broken finger. Get them in Foxboro on a cold day and it's hard to see them keeping up. Could easily turn into a blowout.

Granted, the playoffs are the playoffs and crazy **** can happen (I didn't see it coming when the Giants beat us in 2007, Jets beat us in 201, or when the Ravens beat us in 2012) but it's hard to see anyone in the AFC keeping us out of the Super Bowl if we have HFA.

 

[Vindicate]

The Raiders are the closest to a team in the AFC scaring me, I think. We would absolutely drop 30 on them, but I think they can drop 30 on us. Their defense is a major step down from ours, so as long as our offense could perform on par with theirs (and I think it should) we should win. They're probably the biggest reason why I think the Pats really need to lock up HFA - Carr has tiny hands and is known for struggling in the cold, and that was even before his broken finger. Get them in Foxboro on a cold day and it's hard to see them keeping up. Could easily turn into a blowout.

Granted, the playoffs are the playoffs and crazy **** can happen (I didn't see it coming when the Giants beat us in 2007, Jets beat us in 201, or when the Ravens beat us in 2012) but it's hard to see anyone in the AFC keeping us out of the Super Bowl if we have HFA.

Interesting - I was surprised they could I ly hang 19 on the Chargers this week - is it just me or could have the Chargers been absolutely stout this season had they not faced serious injuries to many star offensive players? Their defense has shown that they can hold the wildest horses in their stables.

 

[skinnydog]

Why is there, every season, a building of the playbook, starting from vanilla, for defense but not so much for offense?

I could be 100% wrong but the transformation seems more visible on the field for defense. Is there a strategy to this? Just curious.

I think it has to do with player turnover on defense. On offense, even if there is some turnover Brady is the key player and the constant on that side of the ball. On defense, they have had a lot of turnover year to year especially recently.

 

[deroc5050]

Yeah I get the analysis of why the defense could be over rated with the QB's we have faced.. however if you look at how the games have been played both offensively and defensively the Patriots appear to be a tougher team. The Patriots just seem tougher both mentally and physically and I think a lot that has to do with coaching.

If this team had a healthy Gronk going down the Stretch I bet Vegas would give the Patriots an 85% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Drop 15 percentage points because of Gronk and we still are at 70% chance.

 

[long distance]

Ditto.

Hightower said chemistry has a lot to do with the turnaround.

“It’s just guys growing together. A lot of guys were pulled in,” he said. “[Eric Rowe], [Kyle Van Noy] and [Shea McClellin], a lot of guys we didn’t have as much experience to work with in the past couple of years. We finally started to click and got that continuity and we’re able to count on one another without even giving a call, we have that chemistry now.”

Holding the Broncos to just three points was a huge accomplishment for the defense and something it can build on as well.

“It does. We’ve been working all year,” Hightower said. “We had a good start in certain areas and a slow start in others. Trying to keep that balancing and not going the other way and just trying to build on what we have. We are doing a really good job of that and if we can continue to do that and Matty P [Matt Patricia] is dialing up some great game plan’s, so if we can just execute the game plan we feel like we can go out and do that every week.”