Fair or not, this outbreak may be a major part of Trump’s legacy and decide whether he’s the next president. And it may come down to many things outside his control. Kind of like how the strength of the economy is often the gauge of an incumbent president’s popularity.
So if this fizzles out, or if Trump connects with the people, he’ll probably win in October and have a Bush 9/11 victory lap. If it’s devastating and everything turns to sht due to a variety of factors, he’ll probably lose. No one said voters are rational...they often vote on emotion.