Conventional non-wisdom & Un-conventional wisdom

[Miguel]

I know our Defense was beat up, and the absence of Aquib hurt, None the less the Broncs were held under their season average by 10 points or so, Not bad for the walking wounded.
:bricks:

While the Broncos did indeed scored less than their season average, it is a stretch to give the Patriots defense credit for doing so. The Broncos dropped a TD in the end zone and ended up the game in the red zone and then sat out the clock.

 

[Marinlik]

May I suggest reviewing the last Broncos-Patriots game.

I think that our outside pass rush is perfectly fine(Except for a back up so Nink and Jones can rest). But we really need a DT that can press the pocket. The QB shouldn't be able to just step up in the pocket as soon as the rush comes from the outside. A Dt that can press the pocket and a backup DE so Nink and Jones can get some rest will probably be the two biggest improvements we can make on defense right now.

 

[AzPatsFan]

More conventional unwisdom and un-conventional wisdom

1A) The Defense can't stop the run. Proposed Solution: Draft a Pass Rusher!

Conventional Un-wisdom: Cut or don't resign the best anti-run DT and Best anti-run LB, (Wilfork & Spikes). Draft Defense and D line against the Pass!?!

2A) The interior Defensive line starters are over 30, and the UDFA newcomers who performed in a 12-4 season, are only adequate. We only have 6 DTs and 3 DEs who have started a game, Reality: he interior Offensive line is just as old; and Wendell and Connoly 32, no where near as accomplished. Mankins is older, 32, but still good. The Pats have 4 players for 3 positions, and Brady was sacked more than 40 times.

Conventional Un-wisdom: When there is a surfeit of good O linemen in the Draft. Ignore it, and select elsewhere. Then grouse, blame BB, when things don't turn out so good. So you can do the same, next Draft.

 

[Brady6]

I read so many posts here that are just so utterly... WRONG.

So I'd like to state some of the un wisdom and apply reality to them.

1) We desperately need a Pass Rusher. Reality: the 2014 team posted 48 sacks /season, the highest figure since Ray Berry was coaching the Pats. It did so with all young players, too. Despite Wilfork and Kelly missing most of the season and not having a veteran swing Pass Rusher in place except for the last couple of games, when Andre Carter became available. and the only depth being raw rookies in Buchanan and Collins.

2) We can never get the opponent's Offense off the field. Reality: This Defense unlike the several preceding it, had a Top 10 stat for 3-and-outs. The Third down conversion percentages were in the Top 15, despite a lot of Third down running conversions while finding Chris Jones and Silver Siliga to replace Kelly, Wilfork (and possibly Armstead).

3) Our Safeties are terrible. Reality: The conversion of McCourty to Safety, went extremely well, unlike most such CB--> S attempts. Using Gregory as a SS, does not suit his size or talents, But he is a cagy veteran, that BB used to align the youngsters in the secondary well. It was the reason he played.

4) Our Linebackers suck. Reality: The Pats had a group of starting LBs including a couple of worthy reserves for the first time in 5 seasons. Personally, I'd try to resign Spikes, one of the best anti-run LBs in the League. He can be a game changer against the run, with two legs.

5) We have needs in the secondary. Reality: There is some Truth there; but there is a whole lot more competent players, than any time since 2004.

6) We should draft nothing but Defense. Reality How can I criticize such a proposition? Except to say this Draft has a surplus of good TEs, Offensive Linemen, and WRs with some 4th rounders available this year, that in other years would be gone in Round 2. If it were me, I'd load up on them and solve all the remaining issues on Offense. I'd pick a TE, a couple of OLs, and a WR. It's like getting 2s for 4s, for free.

I also expect the Defense to improve just with a return to health of the vets, and experience from the 4 rookies who played, and more continuity. Matty P showed that the D could get more deceptive & aggressive when experienced guys were playing. :snob:

One thing you left off the list that I have been struggling with is the belief that we need to draft a tight end with our first round pick. We have the best tight end in the world on our team, saying we need to draft a tight end #1 is like saying we needed to draft a QB #1 in the 2009 draft when Brady was recovering from knee surgery.

We need to replace Hernandez, who averaged 58 receptions, 652 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 1 homicide a season during his 3 seasons here. We can find that in the third or fourth round.

 

[Miguel]

I think that our outside pass rush is perfectly fine(Except for a back up so Nink and Jones can rest). But we really need a DT that can press the pocket. The QB shouldn't be able to just step up in the pocket as soon as the rush comes from the outside. A Dt that can press the pocket and a backup DE so Nink and Jones can get some rest will probably be the two biggest improvements we can make on defense right now.

You are echoing the conventional wisdom which AzPatsFans has deemed wrong.

 

[AzPatsFan]

One thing you left off the list that I have been struggling with is the belief that we need to draft a tight end with our first round pick. We have the best tight end in the world on our team, saying we need to draft a tight end #1 is like saying we needed to draft a QB #1 in the 2009 draft when Brady was recovering from knee surgery.

We need to replace Hernandez, who averaged 58 receptions, 652 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 1 homicide a season during his 3 seasons here. We can find that in the third or fourth round.

Hand the man the Prize.

Convenrional Un-wisdom: Draft TE #1. Un-conventional wisdom: We need an above average #2 TE, to replace Hernandez, as Gronk is All-world when Healthy. CJ Fiedorowicz was a concern until the Combine, He didn't seem dynamic enough, but is a clone of Gronk sizewise. CJ was coached by BB buddy Ferentz, Posted the best 3 cone of all the TEs. He ran a much faster 40 than anticipated @ 4.74, even if it wasn't 4.6+ .

 

[supafly]

One thing you left off the list that I have been struggling with is the belief that we need to draft a tight end with our first round pick. We have the best tight end in the world on our team, saying we need to draft a tight end #1 is like saying we needed to draft a QB #1 in the 2009 draft when Brady was recovering from knee surgery.

We need to replace Hernandez, who averaged 58 receptions, 652 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 1 homicide a season during his 3 seasons here. We can find that in the third or fourth round.

Hand the man the Prize.

Convenrional Un-wisdom: Draft TE #1. Un-conventional wisdom: We need an above average #2 TE, to replace Hernandez, as Gronk is All-world when Healthy. CJ Fiedorowicz was a concern until the Combine, He didn't seem dynamic enough, but is a clone of Gronk sizewise. CJ was coached by BB buddy Ferentz, Posted the best 3 cone of all the TEs. He ran a much faster 40 than anticipated @ 4.74, even if it wasn't 4.6+ .

So, this means that CJ Fiedorowicz's draft stock would be rising, which also means that there's no guarantee whatsoever that he'd definitely be there when we pick at the end of round #3.

It would all depend on how far of a talent drop off Belichick would feel comfortable going, so all of our speculation is pretty much meaningless, just like most mock drafts.

The thought of adding another top notch receiving threat in rounds 1 or 2 shouldn't be viewed as anything of a negative. It's probably our best option of bringing in another high level talent for a cheap, rookie deal; especially considering that we chose 3 rookie WRs in last year's draft. We all know the lower odds of achieving this in free agency, so unless you're hoping for a really lucky UDFA selection, this choice makes the most sense.

If you don't believe that we couldn't use an upgrade in talent with our receiving options, I'm not sure what to tell you. On top of that, Gronkowski has missed the past 3 postseasons (considering that he was pretty much useless/invisible in the 2011 run). Relying on Rob Gronkowski is getting to be a pretty risky proposition these days. I can definitely respect the idea of having another solid TE, and there is some great talent in the top 1-2-3 rounds this year.

 

[supafly]

Optimistic viewpoint: that we'll have some returning healthy starters in 2014, which will add to our talent. Of course, as Miguel reminds us, there will also be injuries to other players who are taking their place. We should be able to expect a competitive team for the most part, but the concern is what happens in the month of January--not necessarily the regular season.

Pessimistic viewpoint: that we pretty much have holes in just about every position aside from QB, and that we could use an upgrade in talent just about everywhere.

OL? TE? WR? DT? DE? CB? S? No matter where you look, an argument has been made by different people who think that an upgrade is necessary, particularly if we lose a player or two in free agency--which is quite likely.

Realistic viewpoint: the truth probably lying somewhere in the middle in the sense that we definitely need upgrades in both starters and depth, but that the team is likely in a fine position to compete once again. I definitely don't think that we're nearly as set as AzPatsFan is suggesting, however. While I admire his optimism, we all saw plenty of weaknesses in certain areas. I believe the return to health and some luck in the injury department would go a long way, and that 1-2 upgrades on both sides of the ball may get us back to the title game yet again.

 

[Brady6]

So, this means that CJ Fiedorowicz's draft stock would be rising, which also means that there's no guarantee whatsoever that he'd definitely be there when we pick at the end of round #3.

It would all depend on how far of a talent drop off Belichick would feel comfortable going, so all of our speculation is pretty much meaningless, just like most mock drafts.

The thought of adding another top notch receiving threat in rounds 1 or 2 shouldn't be viewed as anything of a negative. It's probably our best option of bringing in another high level talent for a cheap, rookie deal; especially considering that we chose 3 rookie WRs in last year's draft. We all know the lower odds of achieving this in free agency, so unless you're hoping for a really lucky UDFA selection, this choice makes the most sense.

If you don't believe that we couldn't use an upgrade in talent with our receiving options, I'm not sure what to tell you. On top of that, Gronkowski has missed the past 3 postseasons (considering that he was pretty much useless/invisible in the 2011 run). Relying on Rob Gronkowski is getting to be a pretty risky proposition these days. I can definitely respect the idea of having another solid TE, and there is some great talent in the top 1-2-3 rounds this year.

I'm not against drafting a tight end I actually mock two - Fiedorowicz or Jenkins as the inline and then I really like Trey Burton as a Flex-TE. I also really would like to see Jeff Janis in a Patriots uniform next season.

My point was we do not need to take one at #29 or even #62, this draft is one of the deepest I have seen and at the TE position in particular it is probably the deepest I have seen ever.

We need to upgrade our receiving corps of course but that can come in the form of any of the offensive skill positions. We have a much bigger need for a #1 WR than we do a #1 TE in my opinion, it is not even close.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I'm not against drafting a tight end I actually mock two - Fiedorowicz or Jenkins as the inline and then I really like Trey Burton as a Flex-TE. I also really would like to see Jeff Janis in a Patriots uniform next season.

My point was we do not need to take one at #29 or even #62, this draft is one of the deepest I have seen and at the TE position in particular it is probably the deepest I have seen ever.

We need to upgrade our receiving corps of course but that can come in the form of any of the offensive skill positions. We have a much bigger need for a #1 WR than we do a #1 TE in my opinion, it is not even close.

Another Prize is handed out ! Gee, Un-conventional wisdom is breaking out everywhere. The difference is the former is a Starter, the latter a reserve and spot starter.

 

[supafly]

We need to upgrade our receiving corps of course but that can come in the form of any of the offensive skill positions. We have a much bigger need for a #1 WR than we do a #1 TE in my opinion, it is not even close.

The problem is "how" you instantly upgrade your WR1. There's actually a decent chance we may lose our current WR1 as it is.

Obviously, Belichick probably isn't going to spend too much in free agency, and even if he wanted to--who is really there anyway? Even if/when we kept Edelman, we all know that the WR position would still need upgraded after that.

The odds of taking a WR in the draft probably aren't too good, due to the fact that they just took 3, along with the complexity and unlikelihood that they can either pick up the system quickly enough to make an instant difference, or even see the opportunities to do so.

Adding another high talent at TE would allow that TE an increased opportunity at seeing more reps due to the lack of any other options in front of him, the likelihood of being able to see more reps and responsibilities throughout the course of the season, and the huge difference in complexity between the WRs (current the 2nd hardest position on the team for a rookie) and TEs.

In my opinion, we have a much better chance of upgrading the receiving options by drafting a cheap, rookie TE in the top 2 rounds, than any other option available--not only in talent, but more importantly price. I have no idea what Belichick will do, and if his infatuation with TEs this weekend was real or smokescreen, but it's certainly possible that choosing a TE in rounds 2 or 3 may be the better way to go. Obviously, that will depend on many factors though.

Another Prize is handed out ! Gee, Un-conventional wisdom is breaking out everywhere. The difference is the former is a Starter, the latter a reserve and spot starter.

I'm not sure that I understand your comment here, but again...I would ask "how" you'd specifically plan Belichick to upgrade our receiving options in a reasonable fashion without taking a top talent TE in the first 2-3 rounds?

If we want to take an additional TE in the mid/later rounds, as Brady6 seems to suggest, all the better. We've had plenty of double dipping examples in the past, particularly lately. It's not like there's any competition whatsoever at the position of TE as it is, where we couldn't use 2.

It's an oft-injured (unfortunately) Rob Gronkowski, Matthew Mulligan, and Michael Hoomanawanui....we could certainly bring in 2 TEs via the draft if we wanted to, and they both could have realistic shots of making the team or practice squad. Actually, it's currently one of the weaker positions on the team depth-wise. It's Gronk and no one. If Belichick doesn't bring in some additional TE talent, he should have his head checked. Of course the million dollar question is when he'll want to select one. I think that there's some great TEs, but the first 4-5 are pretty damn enticing to me personally.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Remember last pre-season when there were threads about our surplus of TE talent, suggesting we trade some away for players or picks?
Good times. Good Times!

 

[varjao]

At a certain point of the next season Gronk will be IR'd again.

I would celebrate a lot if BB draft 2 TE's, one in the 1st round and a late prospect.

For Christ sake, no Nicklas, those concussions issues remember me the Ras Island pick.

 

[lamafist]

Hmmmm....only a handful of teams in the league had worse 3rd down conversion percentages than the Pats. Maybe you meant top 15 in the AFC where we were 13/16. 3 and outs? Third worst in the league.

2013 NFL Team Downs Stats - National Football League - ESPN

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Third Down Conversion Percentage on TeamRankings.com

Three-and-out Percentage - 2013 - NFL Season Statistics

Third down conversion stats can be misleading, and usually are in the Pats' case, because they don't take yards-to-gain into account. If a defense faces disproportionately more third-and-short situations than the average defense, it can be expected to allow a higher conversion rate.

Different defensive schemes result in different distributions of yards-to-gain on third downs. Some defenses are willing to allow more conversions on 1st and 2nd downs in order to create more negative plays, and thus force more 3rd-and-10+ situations. Other defenses, like the ones BB prefers, are predicated on forcing opponents to make more 3rd down conversions over the course of a given drive, even if many of them are 3rd-and-short.

Instead of focusing just on 3rd downs, it's more instructive to look at the conversion rate allowed for each given set of downs. You can see that here, under the DSR (Drive Success Rate) column.

In terms of 1st downs allowed per series of downs, the 2013 Pats rank a slightly-below-average 18th. Not great, but not nearly as bad as 3rd down conversion rate would suggest -- and considering the injury situation, better than we had a right to expect.

 

[ATippett56]

I read so many posts here that are just so utterly... WRONG.

2) We can never get the opponent's Offense off the field. Reality: This Defense unlike the several preceding it, had a Top 10 stat for 3-and-outs. The Third down conversion percentages were in the Top 15, despite a lot of Third down running conversions while finding Chris Jones and Silver Siliga to replace Kelly, Wilfork (and possibly Armstead).

Do you make stuff up?

New England Patriots opponents third down conversion percentage rank: 26th

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Third Down Conversion Percentage on TeamRankings.com