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Chances for a Jonnu Smith salary dump

2022 Patriots Season:
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Mon
Dec 12th
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stinkypete

In the Starting Line-Up
We know that cutting Smith is off the table, the dead cap hit would leave us in cap hell for two years, but is there a chance we could find a trade partner to take on his cap hit? I'm thinking something on the order of the Osweiller/Goff/Wentz trades, we send a 2023 2nd and Smith to rebuilding team like a Houston or a Detroit, and they take on the rest of the contract while stockpiling picks for the next great QB class (whenever that is).

I know this goes against every principal of value in team building, but I would argue that the cap space is worth more than the pick. The benefit of having four years of Jones on a rookie deal is that it leaves the cap space to build a championship contender in the case Jones develops into a franchise player. Smith's deal is seriously handcuffing our ability to capitalize on this value. If we ride it out, it leaves us with only one year to reap the benefit of the rookie contract. I'd rather have the flexibility to keep Jackson, or Brown, or sign a better #1 WR, than the lottery ticket that is a pick in the 50's.
 

venecol

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Don't see anyone taking on that albatross of a contract. If anyone needs a TE that badly, why not draft one or pick up Gronk on a 1-yr fully guaranteed deal at $7-8M rather than Jaggo Smith's.
 

mgteich

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The cost of Smith for the next 3 years is about $11M a year. I think that this is reasonable, given the options.
 

50-yard-line

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The guy was targeted 45 times in 17 games - or...less than 3 times a game.

Also had several pretty big plays called back on holding penalties.

McDaniels kept saying, I need to find a way to get him the ball" and never did.

Hard for me to blame pass-catchers who aren't thrown the ball.
 

venecol

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The cost of Smith for the next 3 years is about $11M a year. I think that this is reasonable, given the options.
$13.7M cap hit in 2022. That's not reasonable for his performance. He'd have to get >200% better and even then, it wouldn't justify that cost.
 

mgteich

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$13.7M cap hit in 2022. That's not reasonable for his performance. He'd have to get >200% better and even then, it wouldn't justify that cost.
repeat 100 times

What matters is new money, not the cap hit

Some of the cap hit is from the deferral of first year salary,
 

Family

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
He's our's for next season.

There's a 13 million dollar cap hit if traded.
 

venecol

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repeat 100 times

What matters is new money, not the cap hit

Some of the cap hit is from the deferral of first year salary,
Cap hit takes away from available cap space, which is what matters. For example, to free up cap space a team could restructure to convert salary to bonus, thus lowering that year's cap hit to free up cap space. Not sure you can even do that with JSmith.
 

goheels22002

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$13.7M cap hit in 2022. That's not reasonable for his performance. He'd have to get >200% better and even then, it wouldn't justify that cost.

It's not unreasonable to expect him to double his production in 2022. Smith caught 28 passes for 294 yards and 1 TD. Over 17 games, 56 - 588 - 2 would be decent production.

The Patriots got 50 receptions, 603 yards and 9 TDs out of Hunter Henry.
 
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BTTA

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It's not unreasonable to expect him to double his production in 2022. Smith caught 28 passes for 294 yards and 1 TD. Over 17 games, 56 - 588 - 2 would be decent production.

The Patriots got 50 receptions, 603 yards and 0 TDs out of Hunter Henry.

So if Henry repeats, and Smith goes up by 50%, that's pretty good production out of the position, especially if the #1 WR position gets more attention/throws. Would like to see more TD's by the TE's though, just to open them up more as red zone threats.
 

Ring 6

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The guy was targeted 45 times in 17 games - or...less than 3 times a game.

Also had several pretty big plays called back on holding penalties.

McDaniels kept saying, I need to find a way to get him the ball" and never did.

Hard for me to blame pass-catchers who aren't thrown the ball.
Mostly pass catchers not being thrown the ball
are pass catchers who aren’t getting open.
No one said let’s not throw him the ball even though he gets open.
 

Ring 6

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It's not unreasonable to expect him to double his production in 2022. Smith caught 28 passes for 294 yards and 1 TD. Over 17 games, 56 - 588 - 2 would be decent production.

The Patriots got 50 receptions, 603 yards and 0 TDs out of Hunter Henry.
Henry had 9 TDs not zero.
 

holyredeemer

In the Starting Line-Up
The guy was targeted 45 times in 17 games - or...less than 3 times a game.

Also had several pretty big plays called back on holding penalties.

McDaniels kept saying, I need to find a way to get him the ball" and never did.

Hard for me to blame pass-catchers who aren't thrown the ball.
On the flip side, you could say he wasn’t targeted for a reason. I say keep him for another year and see what the next play caller can do to get him involved.
 

Ring 6

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I would reserve judgment until we see what kind of production the next OC can get from him.
It’s all relative. If Smith is playing a lot, and the offense is rolling, it doesn’t matter whether he’s the guy getting through ball a lot or not. If we are playing 2 TEs to dictate the defensive personnel we want to face ( ie if they go small we run and if the go bigger and have to cover TEs with LBs and we throw) and the offense is successful I could not care less whether it’s TEs, WRs or RBs doing the damage.

I thinking what we would find is the reason we saw a lot less 2 TE as the season wore on is that defenses were not reaction to that formation the way we hoped, ostensibly because Smith wasn’t producing in the opportunities he had.
 


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