Chad Graff's NEP FA signing predictions

[BTTA]

Could they afford this? Graff thinks so. Chad Graff in The Athletic on NEP FA predictions
It would fill some serious needs pre draft, which is always nice.
Doesn't address Safety, Center, Receiving TE, or RB depth.

• WR: Alec Pierce, four years, $104 million..
• Edge: Boye Mafe, four years, $76 million.
• Blocking TE: Charlie Kolar, three years, $23 million.
• Left Guard: Dylan Parham, three years, $28 million.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

That would be an awesome FA period for us, plus a few lower level signings

 

[Hugepatsfan]

They're currently at $56.1M in cap space after Diggs release. On those contracts, I'll predict year 1 cap numbers of $16.5M for Pierce, $14M for Maye, $5M for Kolar, $6M for Parham. That would use up a combined $40.5M of cap space so they'd have $15.1M left, which is probably about where they want to end up for picks and in season moves.

I'd restructure Milton Williams to free up an additional $13M. That should mostly cover the year 1 cap hits of also re-signing Chaisson and Hawkins.

They can cut Henry to save $9.25M and sign a younger TE that blocks better like Otton. I know they have Kolar here, but he's TE2 and I still want TE1 to be able to block better. They'd also create some extra cap space with this move because his cap hit would be lower than $9.25M.

Connor McGovern would be a huge get at C. They can cut Bradbury to save $5.7M which should cover all or most of the cap hit of McGovern for year 1. Combined with the Henry/Otton swap above, I feel cap hit would be pretty neutral to let Henry/Bradbury go for Otton/McGovern.

Cap hits would jump big time next year but I'm anticipating almost all of the FAs we signed last year besides Milton Williams to be gone - Landry, Moses, Spillane and possibly Davis. So drafting their replacements a year early should be the draft priority. I'd also plan on moving McGovern to RG, Wilson in at C after a learning year and letting Onwenu go to free up money.

 

[Give Kraft A Hand]

They’ve been linked to Mafe for a while. Makes a lot of sense. I’m not a fan of cutting Henry and adding Otton. Otton is a guy who Brady liked and kind of fell out of favor with Baker Mayfield. Keep the guy who is stable and dependable who will serve as the Pats version of Dawson Knox

 

[Water Boy]

It would be amazing to fill all those holes and go BPA in the draft but not sure how the Gonzalez contract plays into this.

 

[Wozzy]

Pierce and Mafe would be solid signings at the right price. Both are very good players with upside.

Kolar is nothing special, he was the Ravens third TE and I'd call him a "blocking TE" but he isn't a dominating blocker as he stands a little tall. I'm certainly not outbidding other teams for his services. For the right price maybe...

Parham is a jag. When looking for good free agents, I don't usually go after players from bad offensive line units that are letting these players walk. Chuks Okorafor was a good example of a guy who started a lot of games but wasn't good. You have to ask why these teams desperate for quality starters are letting their starters leave. If they don't want them... why do we?

 

[PatsFan2]

They’ve been linked to Mafe for a while. Makes a lot of sense. I’m not a fan of cutting Henry and adding Otton. Otton is a guy who Brady liked and kind of fell out of favor with Baker Mayfield. Keep the guy who is stable and dependable who will serve as the Pats version of Dawson Knox

I would sign Cade Otton and move on from H Henry Otton adds some Blocking which H Henry is useless at. Otton will be 27 compared to Henry 32: get Drake Maye some Younger Playmakers.

 

[jdlboot14]

I'd love to get Otton as our sure-fire FA addition.
I'm not thrilled with receiving TE's in the top of the draft, but I've seen a couple mid-lower round TE's that could be interesting.
Royer is ranked 8th - average in all aspects
Klein is ranked 12th - but I love him. He's not just a blocking TE, he is the closest to Gronk-type that I've seen in this years class.
If we could get him in the 5th or 6th round, that'd be a steal.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Pierce seems like a pretty obvious incoming signing, but we've been surprised before.

Hope they make a splash with Hendrickson rather than Mafe.

 

[Zuma]

I would sign Cade Otton and move on from H Henry Otton adds some Blocking which H Henry is useless at. Otton will be 27 compared to Henry 32: get Drake Maye some Younger Playmakers.

I prefer they sign Otton, keep Henry and give Dippre some snaps. If he doesn't produce then draft high in 2027.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Could they afford this? Graff thinks so. Chad Graff in The Athletic on NEP FA predictions
It would fill some serious needs pre draft, which is always nice.
Doesn't address Safety, Center, Receiving TE, or RB depth.

• WR: Alec Pierce, four-years, $104 million..
• Edge: Boye Mafe, four-years, $76 million.
• Blocking TE: Charlie Kolar, three-years, $23 million.
• Left Guard: Dylan Parham, $28 million.

I think with Pierce you can give him that $26 mil average while still keeping the cap hit below that.

I'd think he'll take some incentives that won't trigger a "likely to be achieved" given that he's never caught more than 50 passes in a season - but playing with Maye, he's going to get nearly all of Diggs' targets so he'll increase his production by 50% easy and twice as many TDs if he's playing with someone as accurate with the deep ball as Maye.

All of his comments about the QB and winning culture of a team being part of his decision make it sound like he wants to come to the Pats and sure seems like Buffalo thinks so too.

I like his thinking for Mafe at $76 million - I like that better than $100 million for Phillips given the question marks there. I think they'll draft an edge rusher in the first three rounds as it's a deep draft

I'd prefer to see a more legit pass catching threat out there than Kolar even with a TE in a blocking role, but at that price I'd take him. They'll draft a pass catching TE who maybe can challenge him over time too. We all know how potent the offense can be with two great pass catching TEs on the field at the same time.

Parham at $28 mil over 3 years seems like efficient cap management and since McDaniels drafted him, he's probably interested.

 

[DaBruinz]

Could they afford this? Graff thinks so. Chad Graff in The Athletic on NEP FA predictions
It would fill some serious needs pre draft, which is always nice.
Doesn't address Safety, Center, Receiving TE, or RB depth.

• WR: Alec Pierce, four-years, $104 million..
• Edge: Boye Mafe, four-years, $76 million.
• Blocking TE: Charlie Kolar, three-years, $23 million.
• Left Guard: Dylan Parham, $28 million.

No thanks on Kolar and Parham..
No way I'm throwing 28M at Parham.. He was one of the issues that the Raiders had. Not one of the solutions.

If I'm throwing money at a IOL, it's McGovern. And it's 3/48 - 3/54..

I't much rather spend 3/15 on Bellinger than another 8M on Kolar.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I't much rather spend 3/15 on Bellinger than another 8M on Kolar.

If they can get Bellinger for that price I'm in - he's got receiving skills so he's another I think you'd get at least 50% more production fom in a Maye/McDaniels offense.

I know they will have plenty of receiving threats and don't necessarily need big production from an additional TE but if we're going to have a blocking TE out there he should still be able to catch at least 25 passes to keep Ds honest.

 

[DaBruinz]

If they can get Bellinger for that price I'm in - he's got receiving skills so he's another I think you'd get at least 50% more production fom in a Maye/McDaniels offense.

I know they will have plenty of receiving threats and don't necessarily need big production from an additional TE but if we're going to have a blocking TE out there he should still be able to catch at least 25 passes to keep Ds honest.

I see Bellinger as a guy who hasn't been used enough.. that 3/15 might be an over-payment, but I think what he brings in the blocking game and as a receiver would allow him to be an effective #2 and the Pats wouldn't have to bring Jumbo onto the field except in 3 TE sets/ Goalline..

 

[Zuma]

I see Bellinger as a guy who hasn't been used enough.. that 3/15 might be an over-payment, but I think what he brings in the blocking game and as a receiver would allow him to be an effective #2 and the Pats wouldn't have to bring Jumbo onto the field except in 3 TE sets/ Goalline..

I think you're right. In 4 years he only has 934 yards but his catch percentage is 83. He can block as well.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I think you're right. In 4 years he only has 934 yards but his catch percentage is 83. He can block as well.

And I "get" that he's got a high percentage in part because he's not the primary target

But that's basically what I think makes the Maye/McDaniels offense so potent - and why the loss of Diggs hurts (but can be replaced)

I tend to think they'll cntinue to spread the ball even adding (hopefully) Pierce and a decent receiving TE in Bellinger

I'm sure they'll draft a TE as well but these guys are all set to break out.

 

[Ross12]

I kind of like the Parham idea but not for the money. I think he might be a bit of a hidden gem but he shouldn't cost that much.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

If they do go with Pierce as Graff is projecting here, I do kind of question whether a blocking TE is the right fit. A lot depends on how Boutte's route tree changes, if at all, with Pierce. Again, this is IF he's signed because Graff projected it here. Last year, Boutte, was more a downfield guy. Pierce is that too. The whole idea of downfield WRs is that they open things up. So you need some guys to take advantage of that.

If you go with a package of Henry/Kolar or some other blocker at TE and then Pierce and Boutte at WR, who is the go to guy underneath? Who's the YAC guy? It feels optimal, IMO, to have a true "move TE" out there in that second tight end spot over a blocker. Otherwise, I think you could run into a spot where your WRs (Pierce, Boutte) are too heavily leaning to a downfield route tree and then TEs that are primarily seam threats without much YAC because Henry, while a receiver over blocker, is an in line type guy himself too over a move TE.

That's part of why I favor letting Henry go if they can land Otton to replace him. That way he can be your blocker, even if he's not a monster at it, and you can have the second TE you sign be a move TE you can scheme up formations and YAC opportunities with. If they do get Pierce, I think that's a more optimal TE set. It's tough if you keep Henry because he's not a move TE but he's not a blocker either.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

I would sign Cade Otton and move on from H Henry Otton adds some Blocking which H Henry is useless at. Otton will be 27 compared to Henry 32: get Drake Maye some Younger Playmakers.

I’m not sure of the rush to get rid of Henry, in my opinion. Hooper’s already a free agent and is the most expendable of the two. Bring Otton in and play him with Henry in our 2 TE sets. Henry may not be a good blocker but he can still get open and (usually) catch. Henry only has $9.25m in new money this year, which isn’t terrible for his production, and 2026 is the last year of his deal so you can draft his eventual replacement in a later round of this year’s draft. Plus Henry is a team captain, I think Vrabel might want to be careful messing with the locker room vibe given how bought-in the team was last year. He’s already dealing with one leadership void with Diggs being gone. Just my thought here, certainly open to being convinced otherwise.

 

[DaBruinz]

I’m not sure of the rush to get rid of Henry, in my opinion. Hooper’s already a free agent and is the most expendable of the two. Bring Otton in and play him with Henry in our 2 TE sets. Henry may not be a good blocker but he can still get open and (usually) catch. Henry only has $9.25m in new money this year, which isn’t terrible for his production, and 2026 is the last year of his deal so you can draft his eventual replacement in a later round of this year’s draft. Plus Henry is a team captain, I think Vrabel might want to be careful messing with the locker room vibe given how bought-in the team was last year. He’s already dealing with one leadership void with Diggs being gone. Just my thought here, certainly open to being convinced otherwise.

A few of us are hoping the Pats double-dip at TE and the Pats push Dippre to develop. Would be interesting to see them carry 4 TE AND a FB in Lampe. But that's just me..

The two TEs I favor are Delp and Kacmarek. I think that Kacmarek would be a beast blocking and Delp loves to block as well. Delp's Combine statement was awesome.