First off, he will be Franchised. No way do they just let him stroll down to New Jersey.
What leverage do the Patriots have ? Their leverage is that Cassel can get more than $14M in bonuses/guarantees from someone else. Not for the one year but a more for sure life guaranteeing contract (not that $14M wouldn't be to us but you know . . .). If the Patriots wanted they could trade a Franchised Cassel to Detroit for a 6th round pick. Keep him away from NJ and free up the money. That would leave Cassel with a **** ass team and no long term deal.
My point is that this can be a win-win for both sides and probably will be. They both have leverage. Cassel can improve what the Patriots get by agreeing to a new deal with the new team. The Patriots can improve what Cassel gets by sending him to a team that will offer a long term deal and is in a good situation. The Patriots can trade him wherever they want if he signs the Franchise offer, they just wouldn't get as much for a guy only signed for one year.
Imagine yourself being a GM of a team with a crappy QB and think about what you'd give up for Cassel. Would you give up a 2010 #1 so you get your QB and still get your pick in Round 1 this year ? I would.
And if I was the Patriots I wouldn't take it. Most of the first round Juniors are coming out this year, in order to avoid a possible rookie pay scale, next season.
So this year draft will be super rich, perhaps with first rounders well into the second round. And next year's draft will be a disaster, with only a handful of, as BB calls them "legitimate first rounders".
Is it truly a co-incidence that the Pats are likely to end up with 1 1st; 2 2nds; 2 3rds; 2 4ths; and perhaps 2 5ths, as well as a 6 and 7. If they deal Cassel, I would insist on a pick this year. And maybe toss in a weaker pick from next year, to sweeten the deal.
My own feelings are the Patriots will not be big players in FA, with all those draft picks. They will fully re-stock the Team with the double draft. And they might well keep Cassel for one more year, as they can afford it. They will probably resign their own veterans that they want, like Wilfork, Seymour and Brady. In most cases that actually REDUCES the Cap in Year one.
The Pats wil be an awesome team with the influx of new talent by the end of next season, and I would think a prohibitive favorite for the Lombardi Trophy, providing they have good QB play.
Many of you forget amidst all the complaining about the Defense, that it still ranked in the top ten this season. The Offense was top Four, even allowing that it took a half a dozen games for Matt Cassel to find his footing. Today, it might well have returned to Number One.