Okay, the link we really need isn't the chart, it's
http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers.
Then, you need the chart.
If the Colts, Bolts, and Pats are all 13-3, we go to the "Home Field Advantage" procedures (3rd one, below), which is really what we are talking about when we talk about the "seeds":
OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES
1. Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild-Card tie breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to step one of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tie breaker, all other clubs revert to step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.
2. In comparing division and conference records or records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor since teams may have played an unequal number of games.
3. To determine home-field priority among division titlists, apply Wild-Card tie breakers.
TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.
(omitted... "2 clubs", in which Indy clearly beats us, if the Bolts aren't in the scenario, because Indy beat us... and the rest devolves to other scenarios you guys have talked about, if it's between us and SD for #2.)
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
Easy, they're all in different divisions... they are all the highest-ranked in each division.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
Indy didn't/doesn't play San Diego
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
NE wins/losses in AFC: L against Denver, L against JEST, L against Colts
So, in this scenario, Indy and SD need 3 conference losses each. To date:
Indy wins/losses in AFC: 10 Ws and 0 losses. (Their loss was to an NFC team, Dallas.
So, to introduce the uncertainty factor, SD needs to stay tied with Indy at 1-2 AFC losses. Indy has zero to date, and can lose 2 more games (total) to produce this effect. Therefore, scenarios are 0 to 2 AFC losses for Indy.
SD has losses to KC and Baltimore, so to remain tied and move on, Indy must also have 2 AFC losses. SD must lose to an NFC team (they have Seattle left, so they must lose to Seattle and win all their AFC games).
Indy has all AFC teams left, so losing both remaining losses within the AFC is eminently doable (Tennessee, Jax, Houston, Miami, Cincinnatti.)
Somebody correct me if I'm wrong - I believe this will knock us out of the whole shooting match. But if all three stay in it until the tie is broken, we go to the next step...
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
SD - Lost to KC and Baltimore. Will have lost to Seattle.
Indy - Lost to Dallas. Will have lost to 2 of the following: Tennessee, Jax, Houston, Miami, Cincinnatti.
NE - Lost to NYJets, Denver, Indy.
Assuming "common games" mean opponents all 3 have had, the Indy loss is actually a plus here, since despite any ribald implication that Peyton is playing with himself, the Colts cannot have played the Colts - so this is not a common game. The Colts have, however, beat both Denver and the Jets.
SD will play Denver twice, and don't play the Jets (SD has already beat Denver once.) Since SD can not lose another Conference game (they have to have lost to Seattle to get past the "conference record,"), this puts SD 2 victories up on us, and they have lost to KC and Baltimore, whom we do not play. We also can't make up any ground via Seattle, not that it matters at this point, since we don't play them.
So, even if we beat Indy by this tiebreaker, SD's losses to a common opponent cannot pull us even with them.
So, is there a way for the magic to continue, by Indy having the exact same percentage among common opponents as SD? SD's losses will not count, since none are common games. The same needs to be true of Indy, to move to the next step.
Indy has thus far lost to Dallas, and must lose to two other teams, to go 13-3. Dallas is not a common game with NE and SD. So, Indy has to lose 2 games, neither of which is a "common game" with both SD and NE, for us to stay alive (SD is undefeated in common games, established by the "uncommon" nature of their 2 losses thus far, and their 1 allowed future Seattle loss.)
So, who will SD and NE have played, out of Indy's remaining foes? Remember, we need Indy to go undefeated in common games, since SD will be.
Tennessee:
NE must beat them; San Diego has beat them. Indy cannot lose this.
Jax:
NE must beat them; SD does not play them.
This can be one Indy loss.
Houston
NE must beat them; SD does not play them.
This can be a second Indy loss.
We need look no further (At Indy's Miami and Cinci games.) Indy
can lose to Houston and Jax, to produce both desired results (undefeated in common games, with a 13-3 record.)
Again, this assumes that a "common game" means any opponent all three have played.
5. Strength of victory.
Is that "how much you win by when you win"? Well, we're doing okay here. (PF/PA, subtracting the ones we lost, and the same for the Bolts and Indy.) And there are 5 games left. I think this is where the extremely unlikely scenario gets determined, even if it happens. A tie in these numbers is just too much of a coincidence for the stars to keep aligning.
So yes, assuming all the above assumptions are correct -- especially that you don't winnow down to the best two, once one gets kicked out and 2 are tied -- well, then it is possible that the Pats win a 3-way tie, and win the first seed with a 13-3 record.
It is also possible monkies will fly out of my ass.
Seriously, the more likely scenario seems to be catastrophic failure on the part of the colts (a 2-3 record in remaining games,) and an ugly little 3-2 run on the part of the bolts, leaving us on top at 13-3.
And neither of those seem that likely to me either.
PFnV
