Can This Team Win the Super Bowl?

[ivanvamp]

I'm sure opinions will range all over the place, especially as a reaction to last night's loss. The defense looks bad. Giving up tons of yards and not getting any turnovers. The offense was spotty - cannot believe they couldn't score at the end. And the problem is that they're healthy, so it's not like they're getting fresh troops back to bolster the roster.

However....

Most of this is just because we're not used to the Patriots losing football games. They win 75% of the time, so every loss seems just a bit shocking. Seattle may be the best overall team in the NFL. If not, they're right up in the upper tier. So losing to them isn't an awful thing. The offense should have put up 31 points last night, against the best defense in the league.

Let's not forget, that in the years the Patriots have won Super Bowls, they have lost 5, 2, 2, and 4 games. That's an average of 3+ losses in years when they've won it all. So going 13-3 or 12-4 is not a reason to think they can't win it all.

The offense is elite. The defense is...not. Here's their defensive rankings in years they've won the SB:

2001: #6 points, #24 yards
2003: #1 points, #7 yards
2004: #2 points, #9 yards
2014: #8 points, #13 yards

And so far in 2016: #6 points, #17 yards

Here's the last 10 teams to win a Super Bowl, and their defensive rankings:

2015, Den: #4 points, #1 yards
2014, NE: #8 points, #13 yards
2013, Sea: #1 points, #1 yards
2012, Bal: #12 points, #17 yards
2011, NYG: #25 points, #27 yards
2010, GB: #2 points, #5 yards
2009, NO: #20 points, #25 yards
2008, Pit: #1 points, #1 yards
2007, NYG: #17 points, #7 yards
2006, Ind: #23 points, #21 yards
AVERAGE: #11.3 points, #11.8 yards (11.6 average)

So this defense clearly is right in the mix of being good enough to win the Super Bowl. They need to be just good enough. And the offense will need to play really well. But it's doable. They SHOULD have HFA throughout the playoffs and that should mean a trip to the SB. And once there, they stand a pretty reasonable chance.

Lots of work to do. But yes, this team is good enough to win a Super Bowl. Whether they WILL remains to be seen.

 

[PatsFan2]

Yeah this Post Collins Defense looked real good last night...I think they are Trending in the wrong direction. Chandler Jones ain't walking through that door Jamie Collins ain't walking through that door.

 

[IllegalContact]

yes

 

[PatsDeb]

Not with that defense. We were exposed after playing cupcakes for the first half of the year. Bend and break doesn't work too well. The lack of pass rush, combined with wide open receivers, multiple times, was a real downer.

 

[Ring 6]

Not with that defense. We were exposed after playing cupcakes for the first half of the year. Bend and break doesn't work too well. The lack of pass rush, combined with wide open receivers, multiple times, was a real downer.

So which teams have no flaws that would make it impossible for the patriots to win a SB?

 

[patsinthesnow]

Comeon guys, get it together.

Denver won a Superbowl with no offense.

We can win a Superbowl with a mediocre defense.

There's no exact formula to win one of these. The 2009 Saints & 2015 Broncos could not be more different teams.

 

[IllegalContact]

So which teams have no flaws that would make it impossible for the patriots to win a SB?

sky is falling crowd

I learned my lesson after the Chiefs game in 2014.........last nights game meant little to nothing outside of the potential for playoff seeding.......the Pats hold the keys still

 

[scott99]

This is not a Super Bowl winning defense. This defense scares nobody. If we had a great defense, there would be no stopping this team. The defense will be the reason we don't win the SB. But, The offense COULD be a reason we win it. But the defense would have to show up as well, would have to have an above average performance by the D.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Yes- it is good enough

Last night's game was bad strategy, bad execution and wrong choices for the inactives.

I think they are capable of better coverage and a better pass rush. We've seen it in spurts.

I think its good enough but Ryan and Coleman need to see their snaps cut by 75% and they need to be more aggressive.

 

[SalemPats]

Yes

 

[Sicilian]

Of course they can.

 

[MassPats38]

Is there some other team in the NFL that suggests the Pats cannot win? Every team is flawed. Every team. The Pats had a bad offensive day, and put up 24 points on the best or second best defense in the NFL, losing on a missed TD in the final seconds.

Some years the defense carries the offense, and other years the offense carries the defense. Hopefully the defense continues to improve and becomes less of a liability and more of an asset. I am not writing it off at game 9.

And for those throwing Jamie Collins into this mix, throw statistics or game changing plays into the equation from this season (his contract year) that indicate he was going to improve the result. Adalius Thomas was a talented LB as well. For a defense needing all pieces to play a role, the Pats D can actually look worse (see 2009) with more talented players. Bruschi was the model of that player, and he was not viewed as a coveted LB NFL-wide in terms of pure talent and athleticism. He played a role within a defensive system, and did that very well.

 

[obgod3]

yes of course they can, I do think defensively they need to improve and I think it will take some adjustment with Collins gone. to think him leaving and there isnt going to be an adjustment is crazy.

 

[Nikolai]

sky is falling crowd

I learned my lesson after the Chiefs game in 2014.........last nights game meant little to nothing outside of the potential for playoff seeding.......the Pats hold the keys still

And even then, it's not a huge factor in seeding, because it was a loss to an NFC team.

And Seattle is a pretty damned good team, so no need to sound the alarms yet.

To be fair, there's some whining around here, but it's not as bad as I thought it would be...or maybe I've lowered my expectations in recent years...

EDIT - Bottom line is that the D is good enough to go all the way. It was just a **** game last night against a more motivated opponent.

 

[JMC00]

The lack of pass rush

Pressured Wilson on 44% of his drop-backs. Pass rush wasn't the issue last night. It was the coverage scheme. Played too much zone and off-man coverage. Should have had Rowe active and played press-man all game. Ya might get beat here and there but with the pressure they were getting on Wilson would have been a lot tougher for him.

 

[ScottishPatriots]

It can but i wouldn't be booking any trips to Houston right now.

 

[libra957]

NO not with that defense. We lost at home when we had all the time in the world to prepare. Goes to show that bye weeks are BS, there are meaningful advantage to be had. You are either good or you're not. Last night we we're awful.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

aaron rodger sliced through our defense in 2014 and we won that year. anything's possible.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

Depends on the matchup. This team has another worthy opponent coming up soon in the schedule in denver. I also wanna see how they do against a physical ravens team. Next week has the makings of an upset game heading out west.

 

[libra957]

You have to wonder, would Collins and Chandler Jones have given the offense an extra 2 possession?