Can’t wait til draft night and we trade down

[Ring 6]

"Little stuff'?

Now I know you're not serious about engaging in objective analysis.

Homer.

Yes little stuff. You are picking out transactions and calling it failure when the sum total of transactions is THE BEST RECORD EVER ON THR NFL
It’s like citing 3 incompletions to call a qb having a 30-35-420 with 4 tds game a failure.
Belichicks tenure here is inarguably the greatest ever.

 

[micronin127]

Trading down is nearly always the right decision because there are never 32 elite players. Usually no more than 10 and some years only 5 impact players. So, if your grades for players 11-60 is roughly the same, then trading pick #23 for two picks in the top 60 makes a ton of sense.

Who are the impact players this year and more importantly how many of them are there? If there are 15 of them, then one might fall to us or we may be able to trade up a little bit to get one. If there are only 5-10, then the price to trade up may be too high for us coming all the way from 23.

My short list of impact players (others may disagree): Chase Young, Joe Burrow, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Jeffrey Okudah, Isaiah Simmons, Tua Tagavailoa (injury risk), Andrew Thomas, Derrick Brown

One player that I am hoping slides is Grant Delpit. Safety is sometimes an undervalued position and teams go for QBs and edge rushers and o-lineman early drafting for need. In 2018, Minkah Fitzpatrick slid to #11 and Derwin James to #17. Still not low enough for us at #23. But if Delpit is still on the board at #15, then we have to consider moving up.
Devin McCourty (UFA, 33), Patrick Chung (33), Duron Harmon (29 years old)

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Trading down is nearly always the right decision because there are never 32 elite players. Usually no more than 10 and some years only 5 impact players. So, if your grades for players 11-60 is roughly the same, then trading pick #23 for two picks in the top 60 makes a ton of sense.

Who are the impact players this year and more importantly how many of them are there? If there are 15 of them, then one might fall to us or we may be able to trade up a little bit to get one. If there are only 5-10, then the price to trade up may be too high for us coming all the way from 23.

My short list of impact players (others may disagree): Chase Young, Joe Burrow, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Jeffrey Okudah, Isaiah Simmons, Tua Tagavailoa (injury risk), Andrew Thomas, Derrick Brown

One player that I am hoping slides is Grant Delpit. Safety is sometimes an undervalued position and teams go for QBs and edge rushers and o-lineman early drafting for need. In 2018, Minkah Fitzpatrick slid to #11 and Derwin James to #17. Still not low enough for us at #23. But if Delpit is still on the board at #15, then we have to consider moving up.
Devin McCourty (UFA, 33), Patrick Chung (33), Duron Harmon (29 years old)

Part of what I wrote last night to someone in a PM ...
Idk man 23 is a weird spot. Usually there are around 10-15 really good impact guys worthy of a Rd1 pick. It's nice bc guys like Derwin James, Wynn, Jackson will fall but not always I definitely could see us trading up for someone like that or trading out. I think that's a big possibility rn. We have no 2nd. Lots of areas to improve, a few holes.

Expanding a bit It's very hard for me to see them going with no 2nd with our picks as is.
Hopefully we have a good idea/feel for what Brady will do. That's the biggest piece needless to say.

 

[micronin127]

Hopefully we have a good idea/feel for what Brady will do. That's the biggest piece needless to say.

Fortunately, Brady's deadlines come well before the draft. We have to take care of that business first as it impacts our approach to roster building in general. If Brady leaves, we have to question things like bringing back expensive STers (Slater, Ebner), picking up JMac's option, or even the medical comebacks of players like Gostkowski and Develin. The Patriots never seem like a team that would ever tank, thank God. But, they could go with a youth movement and open up a handful of roster spots for rookies.

 

[mgteich]

Part of what I wrote last night to someone in a PM ...
Idk man 23 is a weird spot. Usually there are around 10-15 really good impact guys worthy of a Rd1 pick. It's nice bc guys like Derwin James, Wynn, Jackson will fall but not always I definitely could see us trading up for someone like that or trading out. I think that's a big possibility rn. We have no 2nd. Lots of areas to improve, a few holes.

Expanding a bit It's very hard for me to see them going with no 2nd with our picks as is.
Hopefully we have a good idea/feel for what Brady will do. That's the biggest piece needless to say.

At this early date, a tradedown seems most likely. The potential alternative is to use a comp 3rd to trade up for someone that Bill considers an impact player.