Butler & Saints working towards finalizing a deal (Thread now UFC Pats Fans Event)

[PatriotsPimp136]

The question is how do you value a year of elite CB play by Butler?

Is it worth more than what the Saints (or whomever) are ready to give us? If so, keep Butler and lose him for "nothing" (or sign him long term). If not, trade him.

Simpleas that. It is about value.

This secondary would be bananas with butler. His value's a top 15 pick and the saints are offering us number 32. Maybe if they traded down a couple of spots.

 

[RayClay]

If NE refuses all offers for Butler, chances are they keep him in 2017 and lose him for nothing next year.

You can make up whatever definition for "leverage" you want but the above scenario runs counter to their organizational philosophy. By sitting on the throne and doing nothing, they risk losing an asset for no return (beyond entering him into the formula for a compensatory pick) 1 year from now.

And they get a 10 million dollar corner for 3.9 million, then a comp pick. That's the worst case scenario.

Leverage has a definition. the team with a RFA has as much leverage as the amount of the pick. In this case, with NO, it's #11.

Of course the Patriots, having all the leverage, could still match the offer and refuse the #11.

Don't want to be insulting and paste a definition of the word leverage, but the team with the player in FA, especially tendered a first rounder, has all the leverage, period.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

I hate when people use stupid logic like that. If no doesnt sign him to an offer sheet, then ne has no right to the 11th pick. NO knows this. That's most likely why theyre not signing him to said offer sheet.

Exactly. Too many people (like Kaufmann and some people here) keep acting like the 1st-round tag on Butler means anything more (to other teams) than sticker on a car at a dealer.

It's not some magic incantation that will somehow force other teams to give up their #1 for Butler.

If Belichick tells NO he wants the #11 and NO says NFW but we'll give you back your #32 then BB will need to weigh the pros and cons and odds of:

• Having the #32 and no Butler.
• Not having the #32, having Butler in 2017, and losing him for nothing after 2017 (and he perhaps being disgruntled)
• Not having the #32, having Butler in 2017, and maybe being able to sign him to an extension after all.

If he thinks getting the #32 back and losing Butler is the best of those outcomes (taking into account the odds of the other two outcomes) he'll make the trade regardless of the #11 sticker price on Butler. And if not, he won't. And if he thinks Butler's worth more than the #32 but less than the #11 he'll try to get NO to kick in some other choice in addition to the #32.

But the assumption by Kaufmann and other that NE is somehow entitled to NO's #11 is just ludicrous.

 

[XLIX]

And they get a 10 million dollar corner for 3.9 million, then a comp pick. That's the worst case scenario.

Leverage has a definition. the team with a RFA has as much leverage as the amount of the pick. In this case, with NO, it's #11.

Of course the Patriots, having all the leverage, could still match the offer and refuse the #11.

Don't want to be insulting and paste a definition of the word leverage, but the team with the player in FA, especially tendered a first rounder, has all the leverage, period.

At this point, it's nothing but a semantic argument.

Absolutely they can do nothing. Quite honestly, at this point, I'd be happy with that. But if they hold out for too much, they do run the risk of something happening which is contrary to how they run their business.

Furthermore, you are assuming NO won't give up the #11. If NO decided Butler was worth the #11 (plus whatever money they'd have to give him), NE loses most of their leverage. So they only have "leverage" as long as NO decides they won't trade #11 (which wouldn't actually be a "trade" but for all intents and purposes it is the same).

 

[patsinthesnow]

Shift in momentum?

 

[Marqui]

View attachment 16642

This is MUSIC to my ears! So glad Belichick is refusing to do Sean Payton the favor he wants. It did seem unlike Belichick to be taken advantage of like that. Tell NO to cough up #11 for Butler or kick rocks. Have fun having another losing season because your defense sucks and watching Brees sign else where next year. Meanwhile we'll most likely be participating in SB52.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Yeah, I think the Saints would have to offer their high 2nd this year and their 1st next year if they want to avoid giving up #11. At least that's what I'd ask if I were BB.

See here is the benefit of the Saints giving up #11 in a trade -- They don't have to come up with a poison pill contract to sign Butler. That is they'd have to offer a contract so lucrative that the Pats refused to match. They can give the contract that makes most financial sense to their organization.

Of course you start high at #11, this is poker bargaining. You can go down but you force the Saints to give up more.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

Exactly. Too many people (like Kaufmann and some people here) keep acting like the 1st-round tag on Butler means anything more (to other teams) than sticker on a car at a dealer.

It's not some magic incantation that will somehow force other teams to give up their #1 for Butler.

If Belichick tells NO he wants the #11 and NO says NFW but we'll give you back your #32 then BB will need to weigh the pros and cons and odds of:

• Having the #32 and no Butler.
• Not having the #32, having Butler in 2017, and losing him for nothing after 2017 (and he perhaps being disgruntled)
• Not having the #32, having Butler in 2017, and maybe being able to sign him to an extension after all.

If he thinks getting the #32 back and losing Butler is the best of those outcomes (taking into account the odds of the other two outcomes) he'll make the trade regardless of the #11 sticker price on Butler. And if not, he won't.

But the assumption by Kaufmann and other that NE is somehow entitled to NO's #11 is just ludicrous.

Not entitled anything but the saints better give up more than just 32. Number 32 for butler's robbery for the saints. I rather keep butler and win number 6. Butler won't sit out. I guaranteed you that.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Don't want to be insulting and paste a definition of the word leverage, but the team with the player in FA, especially tendered a first rounder, has all the leverage, period.

The RFA status of Butler is orthogonal to any between-teams leverage re: trades. Don't know why people are acting like NE somehow has more leverage than they would in any other trade situation. Heck, they have slightly less leverage than they would when trading someone under contract.

Again, the almost-complete leverage they have over Butler doesn't translate to any sort of extra leverage over other teams. It's no different than any other trade.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

Yeah, I think the Saints would have to offer their high 2nd this year and their 1st next year if they want to avoid giving up #11. At least that's what I'd ask if I were BB.

See here is the benefit of the Saints giving up #11 in a trade -- They don't have to come up with a poison pill contract to sign Butler. That is they'd have to offer a contract so lucrative that the Pats refused to match. They can give the contract that makes most financial sense to their organization.

Of course you start high at #11, this is poker bargaining. You can go down but you force the Saints to give up more.

Give us number 32 and 42. Bill can't get fleeced in this trade.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

It looks like the Saints are asking for a favor from Belichick... but it'd be foolish for New England to accept anything less in value, or at make #11 the starting point for trade talks

Seriously.... why would New England just willingly give up their leverage and accept less?

 

[RayClay]

Yeah, I think the Saints would have to offer their high 2nd this year and their 1st next year if they want to avoid giving up #11. At least that's what I'd ask if I were BB.

See here is the benefit of the Saints giving up #11 in a trade -- They don't have to come up with a poison pill contract to sign Butler. That is they'd have to offer a contract so lucrative that the Pats refused to match. They can give the contract that makes most financial sense to their organization.

Of course you start high at #11, this is poker bargaining. You can go down but you force the Saints to give up more.

Then they'd have to decide on a contract, having given up a very high pick. Does it make sense to give top dollar on top of that? I'm guessing butler's agent will have to accept less to make this work.

 

[Thelonious]

Exactly. Too many people (like Kaufmann and some people here) keep acting like the 1st-round tag on Butler means anything more (to other teams) than sticker on a car at a dealer.

It's not some magic incantation that will somehow force other teams to give up their #1 for Butler.

If Belichick tells NO he wants the #11 and NO says NFW but we'll give you back your #32 then BB will need to weigh the pros and cons and odds of:

• Having the #32 and no Butler.
• Not having the #32, having Butler in 2017, and losing him for nothing after 2017 (and he perhaps being disgruntled)
• Not having the #32, having Butler in 2017, and maybe being able to sign him to an extension after all.

If he thinks getting the #32 back and losing Butler is the best of those outcomes (taking into account the odds of the other two outcomes) he'll make the trade regardless of the #11 sticker price on Butler. And if not, he won't. And if he things Butler's worth more than the #32 but less than the #11 he'll try to get NO to kick in some other choice in addition to the #32.

But the assumption by Kaufmann and other that NE is somehow entitled to NO's #11 is just ludicrous.

So, have we figured out which of us is the most stupid yet? Because that's certainly the sort of information we all came here to get.

 

[RayClay]

The RFA status of Butler is orthogonal to any between-teams leverage re: trades. Don't know why people are acting like NE somehow has more leverage than they would in any other trade situation. Heck, they have slightly less leverage than they would when trading someone under contract.

Again, the almost-complete leverage they have over Butler doesn't translate to any sort of extra leverage over other teams. It's no different than any other trade.

They can keep Butler at 3.9 mil. They can keep Butler by matching the offer. They can force NO to give up the #11 if they want to sign Butler. They can agree to a trade instead of the #11 if NO wants to sign Butler.

 

[Fanfrom1960]

And they get a 10 million dollar corner for 3.9 million, then a comp pick. That's the worst case scenario.

Maybe also called kicking the can down the road. Let's do this.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

 

[Rob0729]

I never thought the Pats had a deal in place just to take back the 32nd pick back for Butler. Based on that, the Pats traded for Cooks for the 11th pick (Butler's trade value) and swapping their third round pick for the Saints fourth. Rarely does Belichick put himself on the wrong end of a lopsided trade like that.

I don't know if the Saints would ever give up the 11th pick, but the Pats could end up with the 32nd, the Saints' second, and the Pats' third back.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Well, there's the blazingly obvious one that this Lazar guy is too stupid to see:

"Because NO doesn't think Butler is worth the #11 and won't do that deal under any circumstances and Belichick feels getting something less than the #11 is better than losing Butler for nothing after next year."

That may or may not be true (I don't claim to have any knowledge of what BB is thinking) but it sure as hell is a legit reason.

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

It's not about leverage
Simply this
I believe patriots are quite happy with status quo
Patriots do not have to do anything
If Saints want butler, onus is all on them to make it happen

I think smart think for Pats is to walk away and keep Butler
End of story

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

Well, there's the blazingly obvious one that this Lazar guy is too stupid to see:

"Because NO doesn't think Butler is worth the #11 and won't do that deal under any circumstances and Belichick feels getting something less the #11 is better than losing Butler for nothing after next year."

That may or may not be true (I don't claim to have any knowledge of what BB is thinking) but it sure as hell is a legit reason.

Butler's a top 15 pick in terms of value. I think he's out of the top 10 in terms of corners but in the top 15. He's a good player. Given up number 32 for a guy like butler's ridiculous.