Bob's big board and draft grades 2019

[BaconGrundleCandy]

And here I thought it was actually pretty interesting, since Chung is one of the only other players in the NFL with Chinese heritage.

Harris is big and fast. He's got decent coverage chops. I don't like him against the run, however. Maybe I'm biased, but I saw him get bowled over a few too many times for my liking. Late round developmental type, perhaps. He's better deep from what I've seen than in the box, but is sometimes late on his reads. Maybe @BaconGrundleCandy has watched more of his games and could advise, since I admittedly have only seen three (I've watched a lot more of BC but I usually focused on Zach Allen).

Feel the same. Backup type that will have to take a spot but will take time. If he gets time I believe he might have some versatility to unlock. Seems very comfortable in coverage hes not a killer that will set the tone. Best asset is when he see the play develop in front of him underneath & just shoots to the ball. I see the testing #'s when he has eyes on the play. You see the burst & recognition. Has some bloodlines. Again I think he needs some time but could be C2/Nickel, roamer w some coaching & luck.

 

[BTTA]

OT, but the first sentence of Rapp's NFL.com profile is mighty weird:

"Rapp's family has Chinese ancestry, but he is a dual citizen between the United States and Canada."

That's their lead on the #1 safety prospect in the draft? And what does that "but" mean? It's like they're tying themselves in knots for an excuse to point out "OMG look this guy's Asian!!!"

C'mon Patchick. It's obvious. As an Asian, he's naturally deceptive, so he'll be good at disguising defenses. Haven't you seen all the good 1950's and 60's movies to learn this stuff?

But, as a Canadian, he's just too nice to be an effective football player.

So the combination will mean that he'll arrive at the play in time to make the bit hit, but won't make it, or if he does, he'll apologize for doing so.

As someone raised in the Southern US, I'm a bit slow and lazy, so forgive me for not responding to your post very quickly.

 

[BobDigital]

Kahale Warring TE – San Diego State

At 6'6 252lbs he has the size you look for. His combine overall was solid. A good 40, bench, VJ, BJ, 20YS and 60YS A fairly average 3CT but overall you need to like what you saw. Not great production. That isn't automatically a red flag, but you would like to see how he looked with a bigger pass catching role. It wasn't like anyone in that offense had good production though.

So I just watched his tape. By the end I thought 'where the hell did this guy come from?' I don't care about his lack of production. This guy is really good. He checks all the boxes.

This guy catches everything with his hands. Attacking the ball instead of waiting for it to come. He looks every bit of his size and weight, He doesn't throw it around after the catch as much as you'd want. And his acceleration? Guys who are 6'6 and 250 don't typically accelerate like this, and it all has to do with how active his feet are. Very Twitchy



2:17 – Ignore the touchdown. I want you to look at how fast he changes direction. This is nearly a 90 degree turn. This is about as fast as you can do it for a man that size not name Kittle. Also a nice little head bob there to make the defender commit.

3:26 – Making a diving catch like a WR look normal.

4:20 – Maybe the most important play. He catches the ball from a dead stop. In one step he gains space away from the defender and then circles around him as he turns up field. Once he starts to go north (cause he won the edge) you really see how he slices though the D.

5:50 – Just check out this agility and body control not to mention his hands. The ball is behind him and high. Jumping in the air he spins to catch it like it isn't an issue. This isn't a slow ball either. This had some zip. Sets up instantly upon landing. Not many TEs can do this and make it look so casual.

6:50 – Forget everything else that happens on this play. I want you to look and see how fast Warring's feet are. How quickly he uses them to reposition himself. Not much came of it, but there wasn't much to get. The fact is he has the shake and bake. Rare.

So anyway let's finish up. His run blocking is good. Not the best I've seen, but he's clearly very capable. If I have a knock on his pass catching, it would be that I'd wish he would run with more violence and power. Overall though I was pretty impressed. Catch radius, hands, speed, quickness, acceleration, blocking, body control, hand eye; he has it all to a good degree. Time to make a bold proclamation! All due respect to Hockinson; but Warring is the best TE in this draft. Not only that; Warring has a good chance to be a top 5 TE. Grade 7.0

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

Kahale Warring TE – San Diego State

At 6'6 252lbs he has the size you look for. His combine overall was solid. A good 40, bench, VJ, BJ, 20YS and 60YS A fairly average 3CT but overall you need to like what you saw. Not great production. That isn't automatically a red flag, but you would like to see how he looked with a bigger pass catching role. It wasn't like anyone in that offense had good production though.

So I just watched is tape. By the end I thought 'where the hell did this guy come from?' I don't care about his lack of production. This guy is really good. He checks all the boxes.

First lets talk generalities. This guy catches everything with his hands. Attacking the ball instead of waiting for it to come. He looks every bit of his size and weight, He doesn't throw it around after the catch as much as you'd want. And his acceleration? Guys who are 6'6 and 250 don't typically accelerate like this. And It all has to do with how active his feet are.



2:17 – Ignore the touchdown. I want you to look at how fast he changes direction. This is nearly a 90 degree turn. This is about as fast as you can do it for a man that size not name Kittle. Also a nice little head bob there to make the defender commit.

3:26 – Making a diving catch like a WR look normal.

4:20 – Maybe the most important play. He catches the ball from a dead stop. In one step he gains space away from the defender and then circles around him as he turns up field. Once he starts you go north cause he won the edge you really see how he slices though the D.

5:50 – Just check out this agility and body control not to mention hand. The ball is behind him and high. Jumping in the air he spins to catch it like it isn't an issue. This isn't a slow ball either. This had some zip. Sets up instantly upon landing. Not many TEs can do this and make it look so casual.

6:50 – Forget everything else that happens on this play. I want you to look and how fast and active Warring's feet are. See how quickly he uses them to reposition himself? Not much came of it but there wasn't much to get. The fact is he has the shake and bake to do something like this. Rare.

So anyway let's finish up. His run blocking is good. Not the best I've seen, but he's clearly very capable. If I have a knock on his pass catching, it would be that I'd wish he would run with more violence and power. Overall though I was pretty impressed. Catch radius, hands, speed, quickness, acceleration, blocking, body control, hand eye; he has it all to a good degree. Time to make a bold proclamation! All due respect to Hockinson; but Warring is the best TE in this draft. Not only that; Warring has a good chance to be a top 5 TE. Grade 7.0

I'd take him with our second second rounder.

 

[BTTA]

Kahale Warring TE – San Diego State... All due respect to Hockinson; but Warring is the best TE in this draft. Not only that; Warring has a good chance to be a top 5 TE. Grade 7.0

Is he getting much press?
Can you hide him under a rock somewhere until the 3rd Round?

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Kahale Warring TE – San Diego State

At 6'6 252lbs he has the size you look for. His combine overall was solid. A good 40, bench, VJ, BJ, 20YS and 60YS A fairly average 3CT but overall you need to like what you saw. Not great production. That isn't automatically a red flag, but you would like to see how he looked with a bigger pass catching role. It wasn't like anyone in that offense had good production though.

So I just watched is tape. By the end I thought 'where the hell did this guy come from?' I don't care about his lack of production. This guy is really good. He checks all the boxes.

First lets talk generalities. This guy catches everything with his hands. Attacking the ball instead of waiting for it to come. He looks every bit of his size and weight, He doesn't throw it around after the catch as much as you'd want. And his acceleration? Guys who are 6'6 and 250 don't typically accelerate like this. And It all has to do with how active his feet are.



2:17 – Ignore the touchdown. I want you to look at how fast he changes direction. This is nearly a 90 degree turn. This is about as fast as you can do it for a man that size not name Kittle. Also a nice little head bob there to make the defender commit.

3:26 – Making a diving catch like a WR look normal.

4:20 – Maybe the most important play. He catches the ball from a dead stop. In one step he gains space away from the defender and then circles around him as he turns up field. Once he starts you go north cause he won the edge you really see how he slices though the D.

5:50 – Just check out this agility and body control not to mention hand. The ball is behind him and high. Jumping in the air he spins to catch it like it isn't an issue. This isn't a slow ball either. This had some zip. Sets up instantly upon landing. Not many TEs can do this and make it look so casual.

6:50 – Forget everything else that happens on this play. I want you to look and see how fast Warring's feet are. Hw quickly he uses them to reposition himself. Not much came of it, but there wasn't much to get. The fact is he has the shake and bake. Rare.

So anyway let's finish up. His run blocking is good. Not the best I've seen, but he's clearly very capable. If I have a knock on his pass catching, it would be that I'd wish he would run with more violence and power. Overall though I was pretty impressed. Catch radius, hands, speed, quickness, acceleration, blocking, body control, hand eye; he has it all to a good degree. Time to make a bold proclamation! All due respect to Hockinson; but Warring is the best TE in this draft. Not only that; Warring has a good chance to be a top 5 TE. Grade 7.0

I really like Warring. He's my number one target at TE right now. I agree he's got star upside. But as a prospect, his blocking technique and level of competition are a fairly big step down from Hockenson IMO. Warring still needs refinement, although the physical tools are all there. 73 seems like a great slot to draft him, and I do hope he ends up here.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

Bob or Reamer. If I may tap into your draft knowledge. I was Just looking at a draft guide. What is your take on Drew Sample TE out of Washington. Also if we could take 2 TE’s from this draft who would you prefer. Value always in play

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Bob or Reamer. If I may tap into your draft knowledge. I was Just looking at a draft guide. What is your take on Drew Sample TE out of Washington. Also if we could take 2 TE’s from this draft who would you prefer. Value always in play

Bob always has good thoughts. I'm curious what he would say here about a double dip. I look forward to his review of Sample.

My answer: Warring/Moreau/Wesco.

 

[BobDigital]

I really like Warring. He's my number one target at TE right now. I agree he's got star upside. But as a prospect, his blocking technique and level of competition are a fairly big step down from Hockenson IMO. Warring still needs refinement, although the physical tools are all there. 73 seems like a great slot to draft him, and I do hope he ends up here.

I would love to steal him at 73 but push comes to shove I think he has first round value. Clearly though if other teams don't and we can get him later all the better. I would agree he isn't the blocker Hockinson is. Still one of the better blockers in this class particularly among TEs who can be a receiving threat. The level of competition was a step down, so I don't think in the NFL his speed will look as fast as it does on this tape.

He'll probably need some time to catch up to the speed and figure it out. Also one thing I didn't mention in my post and maybe the biggest knock on him. He hasn't played a full season. In the past 2 seasons he only played 8 and 9 games respectively. None of the injuries were big ones but it is worth noting.

 

[BobDigital]

This ones for you @BUSTAMOVE

Drew Sample – TE Washington

Overall Drew had a nice combine. He didn't blow anyone away on single events but he did well in the 3CT and 20YS and 60YS. At 6'5 255 he has good size. Athletically he looks like a good NFL option from the numbers and he has the size to be the part. His stats weren't that good and he only had 1 year as a starter. His 4th year stats totaled 25 catches 252 yards and 3 TDs. So not impressive, but we need to look closer.

He actually was on a pretty good offense and ended up being the 4th option. To me that's a minor red flag. This team could succeed both running and passing and had a decent QB. Yet he didn't produce? Not the kiss of death, but not what you want to see. The good news is he played against some of the best competition in college football, so everything he got was hard earned.

After looking at the tape one word comes to mind. Meh. More of a blocker than pass catcher. It isn't elite blocking, but good. As a pass catcher I just didn't see anything jump off the tape. He was dependable in what he did, but it was basic stuff. Short crossers over the middle, little hook come backs and safety valve routes mostly. Whenever I watched him go vertical it was clear he wasn't a big threat. He has okay speed, but he wasn't fast enough to challenge. His route running was decent but he was never asked to do anything challenging that I saw. He rarely put himself or was put in position to make a big play. I think both reasons are the same. He's not that guy, He's a TE #2 and not a particularly good one. Just serviceable within a role. Still needs to clean up his blocking a lot for the NFL as that's where I see him making his bones. Blocking and the occasional short pass with some upside to grow into. Grade 4.5

 

[patchick]

Is he getting much press?
Can you hide him under a rock somewhere until the 3rd Round?

I'm going with yes, and no.

Warring has become my top realistic TE target too, and I'm seeing more and more writers gushing about him in a way nobody gushes about the likes of Irv Smith. But projections always lag behind. This is the sort of guy who's likely to be drafted much higher than any big board suggests, and people will scream "reach!" even though they too like him better than the guys listed above him.

I'm starting to see why BB & co. always turn projections on their heads. Value, schmalue--outside the top 20 or so picks it's a free-for-all. They need a TE, I hope they nab this guy early.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I'm going with yes, and no.

Warring has become my top realistic TE target too, and I'm seeing more and more writers gushing about him in a way nobody gushes about the likes of Irv Smith. But projections always lag behind. This is the sort of guy who's likely to be drafted much higher than any big board suggests, and people will scream "reach!" even though they too like him better than the guys listed above him.

I'm starting to see why BB & co. always turn projections on their heads. Value, schmalue--outside the top 20 or so picks it's a free-for-all. They need a TE, I hope they nab this guy early.

Great reminder! The draft community seems to get caught up collectively with value and grades and rounds, but the entire point is to get a few starters and role players. Where/how/when is secondary. The draft as a thing unto itself is overrated. Rookie contacts are why it's valuable, however: When they work out, the cost to production ratio is a big boost.

New hires rarely save a sinking company.

 

[patchick]

New hires rarely save a sinking company.

That's the pithiest explanation I've heard for how the Patriots keep restocking from the bottom of the draft order, and the Browns keep floundering from the top.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

Bob always has good thoughts. I'm curious what he would say here about a double dip. I look forward to his review of Sample.

My answer: Warring/Moreau/Wesco.

Wesco seems to be a player that a lot of teams will stay away from because he is a luxury pick in my mind. Not those starter intangibles but can be moved all over the place. Seems like the Pats type of guy

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Wesco seems to be a player that a lot of teams will stay away from because he is a luxury pick in my mind. Not those starter intangibles but can be moved all over the place. Seems like the Pats type of guy

He's basically a Dwayne Allen replacement, the way I see it, but on a rookie contract instead of 7M per year. That sounds like good value to me.

 

[BobDigital]

DeAndre Baker – CB Georgia

5'11 and 193lbs at the combine he's a little smaller than you'd like in a #1 CB but nothing that hasn't worked before. Speaking of the combine it didn't go so well. His 4.52 40 wasn't great (he did better at his pro day with 4.46) and his broad jump was bad. His bench was good but I don't really care much. He didn't do any of the quickness drills or the vertical either at the combine or pro day. I guess he didn't think he'd do well in them. So maybe there are some athletic red flags? Well forgot the combine. In 2 years this player hasn't allowed a TD to go along with 5 Ints According to PPF he only allowed 10 first downs in 2018. Those are some eye popping numbers.

Now it time to talk tape. Overall I was hoping to walk away more impressed, but there are some serious red flags. His lack of top end speed shows up on tape. A number of times I saw him beat over the top deep and not pay for it. It wasn't by much usually, but beat is beat. Another issue is his size comes up as a concern in the run game. This isn't a guy who is going to be able to hold his own well vs most outside WRs. When he's on the field you should expect to lose something in this match up. He wasn't thrown around like a rag doll, but he rarely held his own.

He basically has 2 styles when in man. Either right up on the line to try to instantly get his hands on the WR or sit way back to give a cushion. He doesn't like intermediate depth. He either wants enough time to react to a longer developing route so he isn't beat or he wants to try to control it from the get go. I agree with that assessment if he thinks that plays to his strengths. Those are his 2 options. Sadly he doesn't always win when he presses, and when he loses he can't recover due to lack of top end speed. When he plays back you lose a lot of the reason he's on your team in the first place.

Don't take this to mean I don't like the player. He has great instincts for the position and reads the QB well. He can get overly handy with WRs, but more often than not he walks that fine line and shows great anticipation. I think he can be a #1 CB but not without safety help. At the least he should be a great #2 and full time quality starter. His skill set is clear and will translate immediately, but his ceiling is limited IMO. Grade 6.4

Edit: After sleeping on it I decided I needed to knock him from 6.6 to 6.4. I just can't give a first round grade to a CB who I believe can't hold up 1 on 1 reliably. It sucks cause I really like the player and his skill set but I think the physical limitations are real.

 

[BobDigital]

Bob always has good thoughts. I'm curious what he would say here about a double dip. I look forward to his review of Sample.

My answer: Warring/Moreau/Wesco.

As far as a double dip goes TE is a harder spot to do it unless you already have a starter. That's just a lot of youth to have at that position. Then again the Gronk/AH double dip worked out for a while. So really it's all about the players. If they are talented and you hit on both a double dip anywhere works.

As for the Pats I wouldn't mind a double dip at TE or WR as long as they get good players.

Hockinson and Fant are out for options (though I'm not a big Fant fan). They will both go long before the Pats pick and I don't think either is worth a trade up tbh.

I wouldn't mind a double dip of Warring and Sternberger in the 2nd round.

At this point given what is left in FA I say there is an argument to go all in and do a double dip, double dip with the first 4 picks! Why not if you like all the players?

1st AJ Brown/M. Brown - I'd be okay with either here but would prefer AJ - WR
2nd Hakeem Butler - WR
2nd Warring - TE
3rd Sternberger - TE

While I wouldn't be mad about these picks that be pretty crazy. : P

 

[BobDigital]

Ed Oliver – DT Houston.

I was going to do this player early but I wanted to wait for his pro day. It confirmed a lot of my thoughts. A pass rushing DT and maybe sometimes a DE. He stands 6'2 and 285-290lbs. First lets talk combine and pro day. At the combine he had a nice showing with with 32 reps, a VJ of 36 and a BJ of 120. All of those were near the top. At his pro day he further helped him with a 40 yard dash of 4.71 and a 20YS of 4.19 and a 3 cone time of 7.15 (It is worth noting he got down to 281 for these. The big cheater!). This isn't just good. This is great. So he post good numbers. Can he actually play?

Yes. All those tested numbers show up on tape. His stats don't jump off the page as far as sacks, but those TFLs tell you he sure is in the back field a lot. While his competition wasn't all it could be in 2018, he has produced against good competition. He probably faced his best teams in his freshman year, and proved up to the task. Everyone is trying to compare every undersized DT to Aaron Donald. For my money I would call Oliver a bit more like Geno Atkins only maybe not as powerful bit more shifty/quick. As a side note I'm sure everyone wants to talk about his pass rush. It should be mentioned his run D is good too. I think we are past the point where we believe small DTs can't be good vs the run. It is just a different style and he does it well.

He is disruptive pretty much every play. That or he has the attention of 2 players. Sometimes both. He isn't particularly amazing at any one part of interior pass rushing as far as I can tell. He is is just all around skilled at all parts of it. Bull rush? Yep. First step? Yep. Hand fighting? Yep. Shiftiness? Yep. He can win with them all. I don't think either one tool by themselves would be elite. It's kind of the whole package put together. If I had to say which was his best tool it would be his short area ability but it's hard to say and if someone disagrees I wouldn't tell them they're wrong.

That being said there are a few minor issues. He can be a bit tad over aggressive at times. He ends up on the ground more than you'd like in his pursuit of getting up field. It will happen sometimes regardless to all DL players, but it was something I noticed a bit too much with Oliver. Another slight downside is he almost never leaves the DT spot. Sometimes he'll be the nose but he lives in the center of the D. I always prefer guys who can play all along the line if possible. The bottom line is that if you're good enough that doesn't matter, and Oliver is clearly great. The DL man with the highest ceiling in the draft probably. Grade 8.2

 

[BobDigital]

D.K. Metcalf – WR Mississippi

6'3 and 228 and he looks very solidly built. At the combine he did great. A 4.33 40, 27 bench, 40.5 VJ, 134 BJ. All near the top. But a number of other test didn't go so well. A 7.38 3CT and 4.50 20YS were near the bottom. So he has great one direction bust and speed. But his quickness and short area agility is bad going by the numbers. As far as his stats they're pretty good. He had a decent 2nd year and last year he totaled 26 catches 569 yards and 5 Tds in 7 games. Overall that works out to good but not elite production over 12 games of 45 catches and 975 yards projected over 12 games. Pretty good production.

I probably can't tell you anything about this player you haven't heard before. His main issues are well known. He doesn't have a lot to his game. Basically he runs 2-3 kinds or routes and most of the time they are verticals. I can't even tell you if I feel confident in his ability to keep his straight line speed going diagonally across the field as we didn't see it. He has made some crazy catches but also some easy drops. He seems to be at times a bit uncoordinated making more agility based moves and even coming out of his burst when a guy is in front of him. Not to mention the lack of polish in dealing with DBs. He can't seem to fight their hands off him well or play the push-pull game with them. His bag of tricks is small. Also this dude is huge and should be a monster run blocker; but I don't see the will to do it.

He faced good competition in his 7 games, but it was a microcosm of his issues. He got a 75 yard TD vs Alabama on a vertical route. Just beat the DB cause he was slow to react or get out of his break. Besides that play he had 4 catches for 54 yards combined between facing LSU and Alabama. He lives and dies by the big play. If you take that away from him then he can't hurt you much. I think this is true not just for these games but right now for him as a player. If he can't get that 50+ yard bomb he becomes a #3 WR. That isn't to say he isn't NFL worthy. A number of WRs make a living with their ability to break the long TD and little else. DeSean Jackson for example comes to mind. That's fine. But it isn't what you want in the first round if that's all he is. In the end he'll have nice stats, but guys like that don't really lead to more points scored over the course of a season. The number of plays they don't contribute tend to stall as many potential scoring drives as they big ones they break.

While the athleticism and clear upside is there I think there are just too many holes in his game and lack of polish. Considering how long he has been a college WR for this is odd to me. While his weapons are dangerous if he can't figure out how to run at least a few more routes on the route tree or really polish his narrow skill set I see him as nothing more than a physically impressive occasional home run hitter who can be taken away with solid defensive play and a safety over the top if you are worried about a certain obvious passing situation. High upside but some serious holes which will be taken advantage of at the next level and the lack of polish and effort on run plays makes me question him. Grade. 5.7

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Yeah, maybe I'm overreacting. But nobody ever feels the need to assure us that other players are U.S. citizens, you know?

Anyway, I'm amazed at how many BC players I keep circling around this year. You could almost put together an all-BC draft board. If you've been watching a lot of their games, do you have an interest in OT Aaron Monteiro as a 7th/UDFA?

Thought you might find this a worthwhile read, since it gives us a peek behind the curtain. From what I can gather, you were spot on with your assessment (even though I didn't pick up on the racial/cultural subtleties at first).

Taylor Made