Patriots Pregame Thread Bills - Pats line (Patriots vs Bills Pregame Thread)

[bormio]

New England favored by 1.5. Certainly not a shock, but means Buffalo favored on a neutral field. Apparently people don’t fear coming to Foxborough. Time to change that

 

[mayoclinic]

Keep bringing the disrespect.

 

[TommyD4207]

New England favored by 1.5. Certainly not a shock, but means Buffalo favored on a neutral field. Apparently people don’t fear coming to Foxborough. Time to change that

1.5 is the new homefield spread. Has been all of this year.

Vegas basically calling this a pick 'em on a neutral field.

 

[Uptown]

Bills are favored

 

[Patjew]

Vegas wants people to bet on the Pats. It will be interesting to see how it shifts this week.

 

[ScottishPatriots]

It moved 3 points based on 1 game, it moved from Pats -1.5 to Bills -1.5 based on 3 hours of football in Buffalo today.

That's just people seeing Josh Allen going wild in the snow and betting the Bills, the original line is the power rating based on the model they have in Vegas.

 

[maust]

Interesting, the O/U is at healthy 48.5 even with the advance forecast looking like a non-factor that's the highest number for an outdoor game next week. That's a substantial number to go with a tight spread

 

[mgteich]

Vegas wants people to bet on the Pats. It will be interesting to see how it shifts this week.

vegas want half to bet each way

That is exactly what the line means

 

[VectorPrime]

Vrabes gets to play the disrepect card big time

 

[ScottishPatriots]

vegas want half to bet each way

That is exactly what the line means

I worked in this industry that's not strictly true, they set their initial number based on their own power ratings which they have and money will move the number but only so far, they will take 90% of the money one way and trust their power rating if the number moves far enough.

Money has already moved it 3 points in Buffalos favour, it won't move more than another point no matter how much money goes on Buffalo it won't move to the key number of 3, they will just trust their initial number of Patriots -1.5 was accurate and try and get 90% of Buffalo money beat.

They could lose on this game but over the long haul they believe their numbers are more accurate than the general public, there's loads of NFL games this year with 80%+ money on one side of the spread and the public is losing big.

 

[TommyD4207]

I worked in this industry that's not strictly true, they set their initial number based on their own power ratings which they have and money will move the number but only so far, they will take 90% of the money one way and trust their power rating if the number moves far enough.

Money has already moved it 3 points in Buffalos favour, it won't move more than another point no matter how much money goes on Buffalo it won't move to the key number of 3, they will just trust their initial number of Patriots -1.5 was accurate and try and get 90% of Buffalo money beat.

They could lose on this game but over the long haul they believe their numbers are more accurate than the general public, there's loads of NFL games this year with 80%+ money on one side of the spread and the public is losing big.

And will, because casuals will be throwing some cash at this one.

 

[ScottishPatriots]

And will, because casuals will be throwing some cash at this one.

It's true, they base their number on dozens of data points and the public just sees Josh Allen as a 1.5 pt dog and starts hammering it.

The Bills could win and they could lose this week but over the season they will win massively, it's people who do it for a living with the sharpest oddsmaking minds and teams of data scientists vs a guy on his couch betting the big name QB.

 

[TommyD4207]

It's true, they base their number on dozens of data points and the public just sees Josh Allen as a 1.5 pt dog and starts hammering it.

The Bills could win and they could lose this week but over the season they will win massively, it's people who do it for a living with the sharpest oddsmaking minds and teams of data scientists vs a guy on his couch betting the big name QB.

That over/under at 50.5 is really high...and then I realized I was taking the Patriots 31-20, and it doesn't seem so high.

 

[Patjew]

vegas want half to bet each way

That is exactly what the line means

People often say that and they don’t really understand what they’re saying.

 

[Clonamery]

People often say that and they don’t really understand what they’re saying.

It hurts my binomial coefficient.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Vrabes gets to play the disrepect card big time

He doesn't play it. He's been asked about this numerous times and said he doesn't go there, he just tries to get them focused on playing their best game.

 

[Real fan 02]

1.5 is the new homefield spread. Has been all of this year.

Vegas basically calling this a pick 'em on a neutral field.

Burrow was dicing up the bills secondary.. IN THE SNOW..... IDK man.. I still think the formula is slow cook.. I doubt we give up 40 yard scramble for a TD by Allen like Bengals did.. Bengals offense is the real deal.. thier defense still sucks..

Patriots 27
Bills 20

 

[Triumph]

It's true, they base their number on dozens of data points and the public just sees Josh Allen as a 1.5 pt dog and starts hammering it.

The Bills could win and they could lose this week but over the season they will win massively, it's people who do it for a living with the sharpest oddsmaking minds and teams of data scientists vs a guy on his couch betting the big name QB.

My Father was a gambling Man.

Poker which he did extremely well at and the Horses. Some Pro sports betting too, but he always said that in these big games side with the better QB. Of course, that is never guaranteed.

It is amazing how accurate Vegas is.

 

[Triumph]

Burrow was dicing up the bills secondary.. IN THE SNOW..... IDK man.. I still think the formula is slow cook.. I doubt we give up 40 yard scramble for a TD by Allen like Bengals did.. Bengals offense is the real deal.. thier defense still sucks..

Patriots 27
Bills 20

It sure looked like Bills holding in the EZ on that TD.

 

[Rob0729]

Vegas odds mean nothing. They make odds based on where they think people will bet. I am willing to bet (no pun intended) that this line will move over the week in the Patriots' favor. I expect with the Bills favored that most of the money going to the Patriots.