Content Post Bill Belichick's draft strategy.

[Interception]

Every year, a bunch you guys think we'll actually use our two first draft picks to move up in the draft.

The truth is that we actually don't have two first round draft picks. We have one. The second one serves one simple person: to gain a free draft pick.

Think about it. Each year, you trade that pick for a 2nd + a 1st the next year. By doing this, you get a FREE 2nd round pick each year. You turn that one first round pick into an infinite amount of 2nds. It's genius. Why ever use it? What's better - a first round draft pick or a continued extra second round pick? Every single year, someone will make that trade.

Just accept it - we only have one pick in the first round. The other is just a "get a free 2nd rd pick" card for years and years and years.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Every year, a bunch you guys think we'll actually use our two first draft picks to move up in the draft.

The truth is that we actually don't have two first round draft picks. We have one. The second one serves one simple person: to gain a free draft pick.

Think about it. Each year, you trade that pick for a 2nd + a 1st the next year. By doing this, you get a FREE 2nd round pick each year. You turn that one first round pick into an infinite amount of 2nds. It's genius. Why ever use it? What's better - a first round draft pick or a continued extra second round pick? Every single year, someone will make that trade.

Just accept it - we only have one pick in the first round. The other is just a "get a free 2nd rd pick" card for years and years and years.

That's exactly what it is, and I think it is part of a larger strategy where the Patriots are trying to build value and gain more prospects out of necessity, as they always draft at the end of every round every year, so they have had to manufacture draft strength and flexibility, and they have been brilliant at it. I can understand why it is maddening but if they use up the draft capital then regaining it is really difficult, so unless there is a really compelling player to use it on they will find a way to use one of the 2 firsts, or both, to gain more 2nds and then move around for players in the top 50-60 they want while maintaining the extra pick to keep them in a position of strength for the next draft. Belichick has managed to always keep the Patriots in a position of strength for each draft and while it has pissed off all of us as our binkies are passed over it has allowed him to really maintain a strong competitive roster while completely rebuilding it around Brady. People can rip Belichick all they want for picks and bad drafts, but as far as a maintaining the highest levels of talent on his roster continually he is the best, they are in the Bowl every other year, they never suck, and a play-off exit is as bad as it gets. Not too shabby.

 

[MP-Logick]

If Belichick doesn't get an offer he likes for the 31st pick, he will use it. They talked about this in "War Room." You never know - perhaps there won't be a team wanting to give up a 2013 first this year.

 

[DarrylS]

No other franchise can come close to what we have accomplished in the Post Salary Cap era, thus this method..

This team is being rebuilt on the fly, right before our eyes.. every year new faces with the same success... we are lucky and spoiled.

There will be those who pyss and moan about how he does not know what he is doing, but you cannot argue with success.

 

[Triumph]

What good is having 2 - 1st round picks if you never spend both of them?

 

[TruthSeeker]

What good is having 2 - 1st round picks if you never spend both of them?

Exactly ! And that friggen #2 pick always winds up being Darius Butler, or Ron Brace, or Terrance Wheatley or Bethel Johnson, as we pass up stud players every year. Quantity doesn't ALWAYS beat quality.

I know I know, if you don't like it go follow another team, or the Pats have gone 27-5 the last 2 years or gone to 5 SB's in 10 years, blah blah blah. But Belichick's drafting has been questionable at best the last 7 years. Only Mayo, Mankins, Solder, Mccourty, Vollmer, Gronkowski & Hernandez have been good to great players picked in the last 7 drafts. All the rest have been busts.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

What good is having 2 - 1st round picks if you never spend both of them?

What part of but he did/does spend them didn't you comprehend?? He simply doesn't spend them the way some would. He invests a portion of the value of one of them for a guaranteed return roughly equal to or substantially better than it's present day value and he gets an additional present day pick of lesser but still substantial value in the process...

He wasn't an economics major for nothing...

 

[Lamanai]

What good is having 2 - 1st round picks if you never spend both of them?

Think of it in investment terms. Sometimes I invest in dividend-paying stocks. I get a return every year. I still own the underlying investment, which I am free to reinvest whenever a better opportunity arises.

The 2nd rounders are BB's dividends. Perhaps one of these years, the future 1st turns out to be from a team that unexpectedly tanks. That would be the better opportunity that arises.

 

[Rob0729]

Exactly ! And that friggen #2 pick always winds up being Darius Butler, or Ron Brace, or Terrance Wheatley or Bethel Johnson, as we pass up stud players every year. Quantity doesn't ALWAYS beat quality.

I know I know, if you don't like it go follow another team, or the Pats have gone 27-5 the last 2 years or gone to 5 SB's in 10 years, blah blah blah. But Belichick's drafting has been questionable at best the last 7 years. Only Mayo, Mankins, Solder, Mccourty, Vollmer, Gronkowski & Hernandez have been good to great players picked in the last 7 drafts. All the rest have been busts.

Huh?!? Only seven players have been good or great in the last seven drafts? What are you smoking? Let's review the players you missed per draft:

2011
Too early to tell, but Cannon, Dowling, Vereen, and/or Ridley could be starters. Possibly several of them could be very good starters

2010
Brandon Spikes - Solid two down player and starter. Based on how he ended the season last year into the playoffs, he could be a big playmaker.
Brandon Deadrick - Turning into a solid player and possible starter, excellent pick for a seventh rounder
Zoltan Mesko is one of the better punters in the league

2009
Patrick Chung - a solid starter
Myron Pryor - Solid rotational guy and an excellent sixth round pick

2008
None to speak of after Mayo

2007
Brandon Meriweather was not the player we hoped for but he did play at a Pro Bowl level for a while

2006
Stephen Gostkowski is one of the best kickers in the NFL

2005
Ellis Hobbs was a decent starter for a few years
James Sanders also a decent starter for a few years
Nick Kazcur started for a few years
Matt Cassel started for this team in a 11-5 season and turned his 7th round pick status into the 34th pick in the 2009 draft.

Look at all the busts.

The Pats haven't been one of the best drafters in the past seven years, but not nearly as bad as you make it out to be. Yes, they had a few bad years, but the last two or three drafts have been pretty good.

 

[patman52]

Exactly ! And that friggen #2 pick always winds up being Darius Butler, or Ron Brace, or Terrance Wheatley or Bethel Johnson, as we pass up stud players every year. Quantity doesn't ALWAYS beat quality.

I know I know, if you don't like it go follow another team, or the Pats have gone 27-5 the last 2 years or gone to 5 SB's in 10 years, blah blah blah. But Belichick's drafting has been questionable at best the last 7 years. Only Mayo, Mankins, Solder, Mccourty, Vollmer, Gronkowski & Hernandez have been good to great players picked in the last 7 drafts. All the rest have been busts.

No one should tell a poster to follow another team because of a difference of opinion on draft strategy. However you have to understand that BBs philosophy is not to win next year but to be competitive every year. Why do you think he picked up Mallet and totally wasted a choice. Because in three years when Tom hangs it up, We may already have a replacement.

A GM has a responsibility to win and keep fans/customers happy but also to the guy who pays him, to keep a team on the field that warrants a waiting list for tickets.

Gostkowski, Connolly, Wendell, Spikes, Love, Chung, etc all beg to differ that they are busts, You seem to believe that unless a player gets pro-bowl consideration they are busts.

That said, BB seems to be horrible at picking OLBs and WR.

I hope every year we get to add a player like of equal talent of Ridley rather than take a chance on 1 player for one year.

 

[Rob0729]

With the new rookie cap, don't be shocked if the Pats revise their strategy going forward. Part of the reason the Pats traded down was because of the financial risk of drafting players high. Now that risk is minimized.

This will be the first draft where teams will be drafting under the new rookie cap system. Yes, it applied last year, but the rookie cap wasn't implemented until after the draft and no one knew for sure what the rookie cap was going to look like last April.

Belichick could continue to employ his typical strategy of trading down or into future years, but I think the rules have changed about the draft. Belichick has shown he is willing to change his strategies when the rules of the league change (see how he went from building a team on a strong defense with an offense that is designed to be efficient, but not remarkable to going to a team that relies on its offense).

 

[Triumph]

What part of but he did/does spend them didn't you comprehend?? He simply doesn't spend them the way some would. He invests a portion of the value of one of them for a guaranteed return roughly equal to or substantially better than it's present day value and he gets an additional present day pick of lesser but still substantial value in the process...

He wasn't an economics major for nothing...

I will spell this out.

No super bowl championships in 11 seasons. How did the constant trading down help the Pats there? When Brady retires, everyone can say "hey, the Pats have 12 picks in the next draft!" Cinci fleeced BB out of 2 - 5th round picks for Stinko among the other draft fiasco's. Value my axx.

There comes a time, LIKE THIS DRAFT, when you can take advantage of having a HOF QB basically in his prime if you draft talent. Not reclamation projects and misfits.

But, if youre happy with AFCE championships by all means yours is the way to go.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

With the new rookie cap, don't be shocked if the Pats revise their strategy going forward. Part of the reason the Pats traded down was because of the financial risk of drafting players high. Now that risk is minimized.

This will be the first draft where teams will be drafting under the new rookie cap system. Yes, it applied last year, but the rookie cap wasn't implemented until after the draft and no one knew for sure what the rookie cap was going to look like last April.

Belichick could continue to employ his typical strategy of trading down or into future years, but I think the rules have changed about the draft. Belichick has shown he is willing to change his strategies when the rules of the league change (see how he went from building a team on a strong defense with an offense that is designed to be efficient, but not remarkable to going to a team that relies on its offense).

I have to think though that the same new rules that eliminated the insane contracts at the top of the first round that now limit deals to 4 years with an option for a 5th guaranteed at franchise tag rates that have to be locked in via option at the end of the 3rd season will continue to give him pause... Not a great leverage situation for teams who don't want to become contractually top heavy.

 

[Triumph]

Huh?!? Only seven players have been good or great in the last seven drafts? What are you smoking? Let's review the players you missed per draft:

2011
Too early to tell, but Cannon, Dowling, Vereen, and/or Ridley could be starters. Possibly several of them could be very good starters

2010
Brandon Spikes - Solid two down player and starter. Based on how he ended the season last year into the playoffs, he could be a big playmaker.
Brandon Deadrick - Turning into a solid player and possible starter, excellent pick for a seventh rounder
Zoltan Mesko is one of the better punters in the league

2009
Patrick Chung - a solid starter
Myron Pryor - Solid rotational guy and an excellent sixth round pick

2008
None to speak of after Mayo

2007
Brandon Meriweather was not the player we hoped for but he did play at a Pro Bowl level for a while

2006
Stephen Gostkowski is one of the best kickers in the NFL

2005
Ellis Hobbs was a decent starter for a few years
James Sanders also a decent starter for a few years
Nick Kazcur started for a few years
Matt Cassel started for this team in a 11-5 season and turned his 7th round pick status into the 34th pick in the 2009 draft.

Look at all the busts.

The Pats haven't been one of the best drafters in the past seven years, but not nearly as bad as you make it out to be. Yes, they had a few bad years, but the last two or three drafts have been pretty good.

Meriweather was a bust.
Chung sucks. He cant cover, but people here think hes the next Rodney Harrison.
Spikes is hot and cold.
Kaczur sucked.
Hobbs was the sorriest (worst) CB in the NFL - Peyton Manning
Sanders was a JAG.
Cassel - Cant Passel will be gone if he does not improve this year.
Brace
Butler
Chad Jackson

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I will spell this out.

No super bowl championships in 11 seasons. How did the constant trading down help the Pats there? When Brady retires, everyone can say "hey, the Pats have 12 picks in the next draft!" Cinci fleeced BB out of 2 - 5th round picks for Stinko among the other draft fiasco's. Value my axx.

There comes a time, LIKE THIS DRAFT, when you can take advantage of having a HOF QB basically in his prime if you draft talent. Not reclamation projects and misfits.

But, if youre happy with AFCE championships by all means yours is the way to go.

You are apparently even more mathmatically challenged than I... It's only been 7 years and being in 5 in 11 is an accomplishment in and of itself, let alone having won 3 of them...

I am happy because I realize it doesn't get any better than this over time...anywhere.

 

[NEGoldenAge]

I will spell this out.

No super bowl championships in 11 seasons. How did the constant trading down help the Pats there? When Brady retires, everyone can say "hey, the Pats have 12 picks in the next draft!" Cinci fleeced BB out of 2 - 5th round picks for Stinko among the other draft fiasco's. Value my axx.

There comes a time, LIKE THIS DRAFT, when you can take advantage of having a HOF QB basically in his prime if you draft talent. Not reclamation projects and misfits.

But, if youre happy with AFCE championships by all means yours is the way to go.

Perhaps if your perception were a little closer to reality, you'd form an educated opinion. People have already spelled it out for you pretty clearly in this thread.

Don't forget, the Pats haven't earned a pick better than better than 23 in a decade, yet have managed to pick at #10 in 2008 and #17 last year. They also have picked the most players in the first 3 rounds almost every year drafting. This is pretty amazing considering they were robbed of a 1st rounder in that time period.

The bottom line is, the draft is a crap shoot no matter how good you are at evaluating talent. Getting a lot of picks in the first few rounds even when you traditionally pick near last is a great way to approach a draft. Busts are gonna happen. Once you can accept that, you'll start to understand the wisdom behind BBs drafting strategy.

 

[BTTA]

I will spell this out.

No super bowl championships in 11 seasons. How did the constant trading down help the Pats there? When Brady retires, everyone can say "hey, the Pats have 12 picks in the next draft!" Cinci fleeced BB out of 2 - 5th round picks for Stinko among the other draft fiasco's. Value my axx.

There comes a time, LIKE THIS DRAFT, when you can take advantage of having a HOF QB basically in his prime if you draft talent. Not reclamation projects and misfits.

But, if youre happy with AFCE championships by all means yours is the way to go.

Here's a little spelling back atcha'.

I am happy with the recent level of success. The .800 winning percentage, the constant AFC East titles, and 40% appearance at the Super Bowl...that's enough. I am smart enough to know that this pattern will inevitably and eventually lead to Super Bowl victories, and that the last two losses were just as likely to have been wins.

Every other fan base in the NFL would trade their team's track record for ours, with the possible exception of the Giants.

I'm not a Pats fan, or a participant in this forum, as a substitute for addressing emotional needs from other parts of my life. The Pats level of success is about them, it's not a reflection on me.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Meriweather was a bust.
Chung sucks. He cant cover, but people here think hes the next Rodney Harrison.
Spikes is hot and cold.
Kaczur sucked.
Hobbs was the sorriest (worst) CB in the NFL - Peyton Manning
Sanders was a JAG.
Cassel - Cant Passel will be gone if he does not improve this year.
Brace
Butler
Chad Jackson

You apparently don't know what an actual bust is. Or which QB dissed Hobbs. Or much of anything else apparently.

Meriweather wasn't a bust. He simply wasn't a fit here. He may become a bust overall as a result, but that's not Bill's problem. Chung doesn't suck. Spikes is a starter. Kaczur started for some time. Hobbs was a decent CB and an excellent returner. Sanders was a JAG but teams can't function without them. Cassel was tremendous value as a backup here for 4 years and then flipped for a #2. Brace may well be a lost cause. Butler had his moments as a rookie, as even did the infamous CJ.

Find me a team that is still starting every draft pick they made in the last several seasons. I won't hold my breath...

 

[Ring 6]

What good is having 2 - 1st round picks if you never spend both of them?

Did you read what he wrote?
They are using them. In his simplistic example that they do the same thing every year, you trade one first round pick for a 2nd and another 1st, then trade that for a 2nd and another first, then keep doing it.
Instead of getting one player with the first, you ultimately end up with another second every single year.
Look at it this way:
If we could trade the 31st pick to Tennessee for their 2nd in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020........
do you make that trade?

 

[Rob0729]

Meriweather was a bust.
Chung sucks. He cant cover, but people here think hes the next Rodney Harrison.
Spikes is hot and cold.
Kaczur sucked.
Hobbs was the sorriest (worst) CB in the NFL - Peyton Manning
Sanders was a JAG.
Cassel - Cant Passel will be gone if he does not improve this year.
Brace
Butler
Chad Jackson

Well, if you don't make it as a Internet message board poster, you have an excellent opportunity as a comedian.

You did make an excellent point about Matt Cassell. When you draft a QB in the SEVENTH ROUND, either he becomes a franchise, HOF QB or he is a total bust. The fact that Matt Cassell is a starter at all after being draft in the seventh round makes him a spectacular pick. The fact that he won 11 games as a starter when Brady went down and the Pats got the 34 pick in the 2009 draft in trade for him makes him an out of the park grand slam homerun for the Pats.

And thank you for pointing out the play that Hobbs got flagged for a penalty that the league apologized for making the wrong call on a rule that doesn't even exist. If the Pats drafted another CB, the ref would have known that face guarding is not pass interference.

Chung is a solid starter. His coverage skills are not nearly as bad as people make them out to be. Besides, most safeties this year around the league sucked in coverage even some of the better safeties in the league.

Sanders was a fourth round pick. If you can get a fourth rounder to start, he isn't a bust. He was a decent pick, but not great.

Kazcur wasn't a bust either because he was a starter for about a season. For a third round pick, that doesn't make him a bust. He wasn't a great player, but certainly not a bust.

As for the busts you listed, why are they relevant. I was responding that other than seven players, every other pick that the Pats made was a bust. I listed other players who weren't busts.