I've spent the last couple weeks scouring over QB tape, and this is the ranking I came up with:
Tier One:
1. Trevor Lawrence
2. Mac Jones
Tier Two:
3. Feleipe Franks
4. Kyle Trask
5. Kellen Mond
Tier Three/Four:
6. Justin Fields
7. Zach Wilson
8. Davis Mills
9. Trey Lance
10. Jamie Newman
The hype is ridiculously off on the top QBs in the class. It's all about flash and rushing ability, which have very little to do with playing QB and winning in the NFL. I can get more into my philosophy if anyone is curious, but suffice to say, I believe in pocket passing first and foremost. A little escability is good, but guys like Jones and Lawrence have plenty of that. Hell, my #3 guy is a pure passer, but at 6'6" 230 he still ran a 4.5 or 4.6 40.
- Lawrence isn't an option. Check.
- Mac Jones would obviously be a stud, but I think he's locked in at #3 to the Niners.
- I think Franks or Trask are the biggest sleepers that we could nab, and I would be less enthused with anyone in tier three or four. Even though Trask beat out Franks, Franks went on to have a great final season, and his tools honestly just project better to the NFL, but Trask is really no slouch either. I could honestly see both of them becoming franchise QBs or at least decent starters.
- Mond is also a big time sleeper, but he's this weird combination of most pro ready (super accurate, consistent, productive) but hardest to project of that tier two list because of his frailness and some limitations I see in his mechanics. I really want to like him, but I think he's ultimately going to need a good landing spot.
In brief, I guess I will explain why several big names are low on my list:
- Fields is very inconsistent, very slow to go through reads, and has zero feel for rhythm passing. His experience with pro style reads is limited. He's always going to rely on his athleticism, and that will permanently hamper his development. He may be able to put up big numbers in a system that hides his weaknesses, but this will come to the detriment of the rest of the team, and it's not someone I would build a team around.
- Zach Wilson is even worse, in terms of reads. He is basically a slightly less flashy Johnny Manziel playing against worse competition. His reads make no sense, but he's fast as hell and has incredible arm talent. Seems like a pure bust unless he's put with a guy like Andy Reid who can mold him for several years.
- Trey Lance has 1 year of starting experience at 1AA and played 1 game in 2020. In short, he graduated high school, went to college, played a season for North Dakota State in which he achieved 2 or 3 games over 300 yards passing, and now people think he's a 1st rounder? LOL. And yes, I did watch him play. I can count on one hand the number of great throws that I saw.
Other notes:
- Davis Mills looks the part and acts the part, but his arm is really mediocre, and I doubt it can be improved much because of his mechanics. Maybe I am wrong.
- Jamie Newman looks the part and throws absolute seeds, but he has some mediocre tape in terms of reading defenses, and you also wonder about the past year of course. Ultimately, he has the highest potential of anyone in my tier three list, in my opinion. I just don't know where his head is at.