BGC 2021 QB/PTP Thread

[Ochmed Jones]

Absolutely which makes him even more of a projection. I don’t know if you meant this as an explanation/excuse but to me it’s just another red flag.

not seems to me the verticals are tougher to throw than the check downs and screens,

 

[manxman2601]

not seems to me the verticals are tougher to throw than the check downs and screens,

I’d like him to come from a more balanced offense. But irrelevant to me anyway because his passes are not good. I don't like him very much.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Mills is all projection. He actually wasn't bad deep but didn't have a large sample size. He was borderline great in the MOF. Average on short stuff. When I look at his collective - experience, supporting cast, skill set, mechanics, leadership qualities. I like what I see but he's mostly projection. See a lot of Daniel Jones.

 

[State]

I have the same question, based on the two recent Dolphins/49ers/Eagles trades.

The comment from this thread goes into more detail, but previous thoughts of the Pats trading up are now highly unlikely. That leads me wonder where second tier QBs will fall, and who is worth watching. I have read @BaconGrundleCandy and others assessments of Davis Mills and Kellon Mond, but I don't recall or missed opinions on Jamie Newman.

I feel as is if trading up is probably not going to be a good value - but will the best of the next group still be available in the second round? Lots of teams could use a QB.

We likely will have to send a dump truck of valuable draft picks/players to move up to the greedy Bengals’ spot to have any chance on Fields or Lance.

It’ll be like a pack of Great White Sharks thrashing about with blood in the water when it comes to QB.

Jamie Newman needs to be looked at as a possibility in the fourth round. Totally flying under the radar.

Along with Justin Herron, he was the best player on the field for Wake Forest two seasons ago.

Then he transfers to I think Georgia only to decide to sit out because of the virus.

Once upon a time he was the Trey Lance of collegiate QBs.

Give Jamie a chance! How many of these first round QBs disappoint.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Newman looked really rough at the senior bowl.

worst then darnold after a drunken bender actually!

he would be a total projection at this point.

 

[miloofcroton]

1. Trevor Lawrence - Lawrence isn't an option. Check.

2. Trey Lance - I've come around big time on Lance. Just as a pure passer, I really like his talent. He looks great in the rhythm passing game. He can absolutely nail the difficult throws with ease. His athleticism is just a bonus. He poses some risk, given the amount of project that we have to do from limited tape, but I am a believer.

3. Mac Jones - Jones is a stud. He is at the top of the class in several categories, such as reading defenses and anticipation, which is ya know, kinda important. I project him to have more arm strength as he continues to develop his body and refine his technique. Yes, he is pro ready, but he's also a bit of a projection because I really see so much talent that he can grow into.

4. Kellen Mond - Mond is a big time sleeper, but he's this weird combination of most pro ready (super accurate, consistent, productive) but hardest to project because of his frailness and some limitations I see in his mechanics. I really want to like him, but I think he's ultimately going to need a good landing spot.

5. Zach Wilson - Biggest positives: quickest feet, quickest release, and best footwork in draft. Has a decent amount of under center and play action experience. Good but not great arm. Negatives: Zach Wilson makes bad decisions. There's a difference between playing Me Ball and being creative. If you leave the structure of the offense to make plays, that's creativity. If you leave the structure of the offense because it makes yourself look cool and gives you the opportunity to make a flashy play, that's Me Ball. Me Ball destroys offenses because you can no longer develop structure or get balls to your playmakers. Is it curable? Often times, no. Look at Johnny Manziel. He needs strong leadership to turn it around.

6. Justin Fields - Fields is very inconsistent, very slow to go through reads, and has zero feel for rhythm passing. His experience with pro style reads is limited. He's always going to rely on his athleticism, and that will probably permanently hamper his development. He may be able to put up big numbers in a system that hides his weaknesses, but this will come to the detriment of the rest of the team, and it's not someone I would build a team around.

7. Feleipe Franks - Ridiculous tools. Got beat out by Trask, but you have to hope that you can continue to develop him. Some questions about his ability to read a defense. I think football might just be too fast for him, but he's still just 23 years old, and people grow. Low risk, very high reward if you get him in the middle rounds.

8. Davis Mills - Davis Mills looks the part and acts the part, but his arm is really mediocre, and I doubt it can be improved much because of his mechanics. Maybe I am wrong.

9. Kyle Trask - All around solid player. Pop gun arm, as others here have stated. Was completely flat and out of his depth against fast defenses that forced him to make tough throws. Protect him with your scheme, and he's a good backup.

10. Jamie Newman - Jamie Newman looks the part and throws absolute seeds, but he has some mediocre tape in terms of reading defenses, and you also wonder about the past year of course. Ultimately, he has the highest potential of anyone in my tier three list, in my opinion. I just don't know where his head is at.

 

[Username]

How closely related to Felipe Franks are you?

 

[masterbouncer]

How closely related to Felipe Franks are you?

I actually like him as well^^
has a cannon arm, can buy time, and is quite fast for a 6-6 230lbs guy
quite accurate 68,5% last year with Arkansas and throws a very catchable and good placed ball no matter where you want to have it, not sure how good he is with better/tighter coverage but just from athletic point of view he can do it for sure (mentally remains to be seen)

however I am no pro-scout and just have seen some highlight reels more or less (far away from having seen him weekly in every game)

@BaconGrundleCandy do you have Franks graded already (update based on performance in 2020 with Arkansas?)? what are your thoughts on him?

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I've spent the last couple weeks scouring over QB tape, and this is the ranking I came up with:

Tier One:
1. Trevor Lawrence
2. Mac Jones

Tier Two:
3. Feleipe Franks
4. Kyle Trask
5. Kellen Mond

Tier Three/Four:
6. Justin Fields
7. Zach Wilson
8. Davis Mills
9. Trey Lance
10. Jamie Newman

The hype is ridiculously off on the top QBs in the class. It's all about flash and rushing ability, which have very little to do with playing QB and winning in the NFL. I can get more into my philosophy if anyone is curious, but suffice to say, I believe in pocket passing first and foremost. A little escability is good, but guys like Jones and Lawrence have plenty of that. Hell, my #3 guy is a pure passer, but at 6'6" 230 he still ran a 4.5 or 4.6 40.

- Lawrence isn't an option. Check.
- Mac Jones would obviously be a stud, but I think he's locked in at #3 to the Niners.
- I think Franks or Trask are the biggest sleepers that we could nab, and I would be less enthused with anyone in tier three or four. Even though Trask beat out Franks, Franks went on to have a great final season, and his tools honestly just project better to the NFL, but Trask is really no slouch either. I could honestly see both of them becoming franchise QBs or at least decent starters.
- Mond is also a big time sleeper, but he's this weird combination of most pro ready (super accurate, consistent, productive) but hardest to project of that tier two list because of his frailness and some limitations I see in his mechanics. I really want to like him, but I think he's ultimately going to need a good landing spot.

In brief, I guess I will explain why several big names are low on my list:

- Fields is very inconsistent, very slow to go through reads, and has zero feel for rhythm passing. His experience with pro style reads is limited. He's always going to rely on his athleticism, and that will permanently hamper his development. He may be able to put up big numbers in a system that hides his weaknesses, but this will come to the detriment of the rest of the team, and it's not someone I would build a team around.
- Zach Wilson is even worse, in terms of reads. He is basically a slightly less flashy Johnny Manziel playing against worse competition. His reads make no sense, but he's fast as hell and has incredible arm talent. Seems like a pure bust unless he's put with a guy like Andy Reid who can mold him for several years.
- Trey Lance has 1 year of starting experience at 1AA and played 1 game in 2020. In short, he graduated high school, went to college, played a season for North Dakota State in which he achieved 2 or 3 games over 300 yards passing, and now people think he's a 1st rounder? LOL. And yes, I did watch him play. I can count on one hand the number of great throws that I saw.


Other notes:
- Davis Mills looks the part and acts the part, but his arm is really mediocre, and I doubt it can be improved much because of his mechanics. Maybe I am wrong.
- Jamie Newman looks the part and throws absolute seeds, but he has some mediocre tape in terms of reading defenses, and you also wonder about the past year of course. Ultimately, he has the highest potential of anyone in my tier three list, in my opinion. I just don't know where his head is at.

I appreciate anyone who takes the time to watch players and make unique rankings that don't just parrot the media narrative. Thanks.

For me, Fields deserves tier one, and Franks isn't draftable. Funny how differently we see it!

Fields does a lot of pro reads, so I'm not sure what you mean by that -- when I look at his offense's route combinations and what's required of him in terms of primary reads and downfield throws, he is absolutely running plays that we see on Sundays. He wasn't in a system that catered to his skillset at all, unlike Jones (who has all the skills I look for, more or less, but had an offensive coordinator who called a ton of screens and short passes with designed YAC). I would have zero qualms about trading up for him.

Franks is very athletic, sure, but I couldn't stand his mechanics, pocket presence, ball placement, etc. I came away from his games with the distinct impression of DO NOT DRAFT. It's intriguing to me to see two posters who like him (including @masterbouncer above). Maybe I'll find some time to go back and re-evaluate because of it.

 

[Bourne Patriot]

How closely related to Felipe Franks are you?

Feleipe Franks pro comparisons: Nate Peterman, Curtis Painter.

 

[The Boomer]

Feleipe Franks pro comparisons: Nate Peterman, Curtis Painter.

April Fool?

 

[miloofcroton]

I appreciate anyone who takes the time to watch players and make unique rankings that don't just parrot the media narrative. Thanks.

For me, Fields deserves tier one, and Franks isn't draftable. Funny how differently we see it!

Fields does a lot of pro reads, so I'm not sure what you mean by that -- when I look at his offense's route combinations and what's required of him in terms of primary reads and downfield throws, he is absolutely running plays that we see on Sundays. He wasn't in a system that catered to his skillset at all, unlike Jones (who has all the skills I look for, more or less, but had an offensive coordinator who called a ton of screens and short passes with designed YAC). I would have zero qualms about trading up for him.

Franks is very athletic, sure, but I couldn't stand his mechanics, pocket presence, ball placement, etc. I came away from his games with the distinct impression of DO NOT DRAFT. It's intriguing to me to see two posters who like him (including @masterbouncer above). Maybe I'll find some time to go back and re-evaluate because of it.

Jones did run a lot of easy plays. Sure. He also ran plays with full field reads, where he's getting to #3 and #4 at times. He made a lot of throws into tight coverage that you have to make in the NFL, even though he really didn't have to at Alabama. The brain is there, the arm talent is there, the body of work is there. No, this isn't a real argument, and I hope you realize how silly that would be. We can both make bold claims and say "I saw on this one play", so I will leave it at this. This is my evaluation of Mac Jones: elite quarterback.

Fields did have some pro reads in his system, but you have to understand how he played it differently compared to Mac. He would sit on the #1 and wait for him to get open. The OC would split up the field and give him simple 1-2 reads. He'd miss stuff and throw a dump off. Also, people like to talk about Alabama's talent differential, but watch Ohio State's receivers against a lot of OSU's opponents. The differential is the same if not greater (no SEC corners, for starters). Fields would throw into double coverage and get away with it. He does have highlights, including some great throws, but his lowlights scare me way too much to think he translates well to the NFL.

I don't have a problem with Franks' mechanics at all. His ball placement? He was one of the most accurate deep passers in the NCAA. Now, like I said, he's a bit of a project, I agree. I'd put him at the bottom of my tier 2 if it was who would win you the game on Sunday. However, I like his potential so much, and we're already into tier 2, which means rounds 2-4 to me. I'm okay taking a chance on a guy in those rounds.

 

[miloofcroton]

Does anyone see a little bit of Kurt Warner in Mac Jones? I'm not saying Jones will eventually make the HOF but I see a lot of similarities

Both around 6'2"
Not mobile or athletic. Both will stay in the pocket
Great accuracy
Average arm strength
Lots of offensive talent around them

Did Kurt Warner run a 4.7?

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I appreciate anyone who takes the time to watch players and make unique rankings that don't just parrot the media narrative. Thanks.

For me, Fields deserves tier one, and Franks isn't draftable. Funny how differently we see it!

Fields does a lot of pro reads, so I'm not sure what you mean by that -- when I look at his offense's route combinations and what's required of him in terms of primary reads and downfield throws, he is absolutely running plays that we see on Sundays. He wasn't in a system that catered to his skillset at all, unlike Jones (who has all the skills I look for, more or less, but had an offensive coordinator who called a ton of screens and short passes with designed YAC). I would have zero qualms about trading up for him.

one last time:

last season fields dropped back and passed over 200 times.

he threw to his primary read all but about 10 times!

he is Dwayne Haskins 2.0!

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I actually like him as well^^
has a cannon arm, can buy time, and is quite fast for a 6-6 230lbs guy
quite accurate 68,5% last year with Arkansas and throws a very catchable and good placed ball no matter where you want to have it, not sure how good he is with better/tighter coverage but just from athletic point of view he can do it for sure (mentally remains to be seen)

however I am no pro-scout and just have seen some highlight reels more or less (far away from having seen him weekly in every game)

@BaconGrundleCandy do you have Franks graded already (update based on performance in 2020 with Arkansas?)? what are your thoughts on him?

I'll have a draftable grade on Franks. I've been following him since hs. He had a little hype behind him.

Lots of traits & tools. I'm not the biggest fan of big QB's but I've seen worse. My biggest problem from Franks in his inconsistent nature. Pocket presence-poise. It's ok to stare down an occasional target but he doesn't have much finesse in his game in terms of selling something else, looking off a S or moving a defender. Urgency will be there and not quite as quick getting the ball out ad others. Tough to see him run an NFL offense any time soon with any efficiency. Lots of hit or miss.

His arm talent is real. Especially on deep stuff he has easy gas. 50+ with some touch and accuracy. Mechanics are decent for a big man. He needs to be quicker & tight up top though. Decent lower half where he generates his power.

He needs a lot of love, care & attention. A best friend in the QB room. I wouldn't be comfortable with him right away. Again just not enough consistency & refinement in places that really matter for me. Take a shot late but he's a project.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

one last time:

last season fields dropped back and passed over 200 times.

he threw to his primary read all but about 10 times!

he is Dwayne Haskins 2.0!

Any source or link for this?

 

[miloofcroton]

I'll have a draftable grade on Franks. I've been following him since hs. He had a little hype behind him.

Lots of traits & tools. I'm not the biggest fan of big QB's but I've seen worse. My biggest problem from Franks in his inconsistent nature. Pocket presence-poise. It's ok to stare down an occasional target but he doesn't have much finesse in his game in terms of selling something else, looking off a S or moving a defender. Urgency will be there and not quite as quick getting the ball out ad others. Tough to see him run an NFL offense any time soon with any efficiency. Lots of hit or miss.

His arm talent is real. Especially on deep stuff he has easy gas. 50+ with some touch and accuracy. Mechanics are decent for a big man. He needs to be quicker & tight up top though. Decent lower half where he generates his power.

He needs a lot of love, care & attention. A best friend in the QB room. I wouldn't be comfortable with him right away. Again just not enough consistency & refinement in places that really matter for me. Take a shot late but he's a project.

I agree with all of this...

One comparable would be Jacob Eason from last year, who ended up going in the 4th round.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Any source or link for this?

good news: until a few minutes ago, I just had my review of his tape. However mcshay just came out with a mock draft and espn has a mock draft show. On the show someone says this same thing. Only they say the second read passes is only 7!

just watch the show,

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

good news: until a few minutes ago, I just had my review of his tape. However mcshay just came out with a mock draft and espn has a mock draft show. On the show someone says this same thing. Only they say the second read passes is only 7!

just watch the show,

So you didn't watch him until a few minutes ago and are basing this off what "someone" said on a TV show? You can't expect to be taken seriously saying stuff like this. It's like a few years ago when you said there were only 4 WR in the draft that could run option routes.

Honestly man you provide no insight and write 2 sentences on a prospect that either makes no sense or isn't true.

With all due respect these kids, young people are doing things most of us couldn't even imagine accomplishing. There's nothing wrong with critique or criticism but do & show the work. What you just said about Fields is absolute nonsense.

 

[miloofcroton]

Does anyone see a little bit of Kurt Warner in Mac Jones? I'm not saying Jones will eventually make the HOF but I see a lot of similarities

Both around 6'2"
Not mobile or athletic. Both will stay in the pocket
Great accuracy
Average arm strength
Lots of offensive talent around them

Sorry, not to pick on you, but I wanted to emphasize another point that is becoming more clear to me. I project Mac Jones's arm strength to improve by a significant amount in the NFL, probably more than anyone else in the class. The baseline right now is that we know he can throw it 65 yards (center of the field to the hash) from his pro day, and we saw him struggle on approx a 75-85 yard throw in a game that was actually from the 45-50 yard line into the end zone, except it was all the way across the field (use the Pythagorean theorem). I think it was the Kentucky game. I think he can train to hit that throw.

It's ironic when we talk about Fields having poor mechanics (to be honest, they're just really inconsistent; he does have periods where his arm motion is brief and efficient) and Jones having great mechanics. Fields has fantastic lower body mechanics that are very consistent, but he also tries so damn hard on every throw to toss a laser that his arm has a tendency to swing very far back and high, which is bad biomechanically for the shoulder and also just bad for football because of how slow it is.

On the flip side, Jones has fantastic upper body mechanics, particularly with the way he loads his shoulder before throwing. He produces a ton of elastic power from that, and it's ironically exactly what Brady does too. Zach Wilson does it too, except he starts the ball lower and has a whippier motion. Anyways, Jones' arm motion is a bit abbreviated, and that could be extended a tiny bit. But much more importantly, he doesn't engage his legs very much. You see him spinning into the ground and leaning sideways, much like a baseball batter rotating after a swing. Power hitters in baseball don't rotate their legs though. They push off the ground and rotate their upper body. In the pro day, I saw his hips were more effective, but he was still leaving a lot on the table given how lanky he is and how powerful his shoulders are. He IS an athlete. He ran a 4.7. Tom Brady ran a 5.2. He has power in his legs and hips that will definitely improve his deep passing game.

I think Alabama probably just didn't have someone either capable of going to this depth in improving his technique, or they just simply didn't have time during their limited number of practices.

Generally speaking, the two hard things to learn are hip/shoulder timing and arm motion. Mac has these in spades. The easy thing to learn is using the legs to create a platform. Not to mention, Mac still has a lot of room to improve as an athlete. His frame is massive, and it will easily carry more muscle. Not to say he will put on 20 pounds. He will probably just get stronger at the same weight by improving body composition.

On the flipside, Fields will have a harder time correcting his arm motion because that's such an innate part of one's handeye coordination. Maybe you can fix it, but then what does it do to all the accuracy you've built up by knowing your previous motion. It would be like having a basketball player totally change how they shoot the ball. I think one of Fields' main problems is that he's so bulked up, it's actually harder to throw. Remember how tight Tim Tebow looked when he threw, straining like he had the arm of a grandma? Same thing. Less elastic power.