PatsFaninAZ
In the Starting Line-Up
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Good analysis emoney. Homer, the reason the thread exists is because it's a backwards way of anyalyzing the 4th down question that is occupying the media this morning.
Obviously, as emoney points out, there's no conceivable reason one should think a 4 point lead is worse than a 3 point lead. The opposing head coach has every single opportunity available to him with a 3 point lead that he does with a 4 point lead. What more needs to be said?
The question, then, is whether a 4 point lead causes that coach to make decision he wouldn't otherwise make. Specifically, does he NOT go for it on 4th down even though it's a better play.
Or, to put it in a nutshell, does the 4 point lead force the coach to make decisions he wouldn't otherwise make with a 3 point lead but which are, actually, BETTER decisions. Clock management, play selection, going on 4th? I think my answer to that question is . . . Yes. Or at least a qualified yes. There is simply no doubt that the Chargers played that last series essentially in loss-prevention mode. Very conservative. What if they'd played it like they were down 4?
Obviously, as emoney points out, there's no conceivable reason one should think a 4 point lead is worse than a 3 point lead. The opposing head coach has every single opportunity available to him with a 3 point lead that he does with a 4 point lead. What more needs to be said?
The question, then, is whether a 4 point lead causes that coach to make decision he wouldn't otherwise make. Specifically, does he NOT go for it on 4th down even though it's a better play.
Or, to put it in a nutshell, does the 4 point lead force the coach to make decisions he wouldn't otherwise make with a 3 point lead but which are, actually, BETTER decisions. Clock management, play selection, going on 4th? I think my answer to that question is . . . Yes. Or at least a qualified yes. There is simply no doubt that the Chargers played that last series essentially in loss-prevention mode. Very conservative. What if they'd played it like they were down 4?
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