Belichick ("not a tremendous downside"), Ebner on failed onsides kick

[XLIX]

So it was momentum that caused Grissom to block the wrong guy on the punt and it was momentum that allowed the unblocked Eagle to block the punt?

C'mon.

The very idea is idiotic. Essentially, some people in here seem to think the Eagles, you know, didn't really care about playing hard and winning the game until the failed onside kick. Then once that happened, well, you know, that made the Eagles really mad, yes it did! They decided they were going to start trying really hard - all because of the onside kick that gave them possession at the 40!!

Of course, the 2 special teams breakdowns and 14 point swing on that INT were all a direct result of Philly starting that drive on the 40. It is all direct cause and effect, you see!

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Essentially, some people in here seem to think the Eagles, you know, didn't really care about playing hard and winning the game until the failed onside kick. Then once that happened, well, you know, that made the Eagles really mad, yes it did! They decided they were going to start trying really hard

In fact, they played so hard and smart that they decided to let NE take the ball all the way to the one yard line because they planned for White to come down just short of the goal line and needed to set up their dropkick-inspired master plan to set Brady up for a 99yd pick-six.

Not to mention that their-being-fired-up-ness allowed them to activate the mind control rays to get Grissom to misread a routine rush stunt and block the wrong guy and complete the dropkick-inspired punt block plan.

 

[varjao]

The Iggle is a team that sometimes face the difficult task that is to get a 1st down. Put them in their own 20 and do your job, no trickery was necessary. I can see some small value the team and BB can learn from this game.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

I don't want to spend too much time in responding to this or to any other parts of this game as I'm ready to move on to the next game.

But I do want to point out something- if neither of you believe that this "trick kickoff" provided the Eagles with a momentum swing, then how come there weren't any real "miscues" leading up to the 14-0 score?

You are not stating my case accurately. It did have a momentum swing. They got better field position and the benefit of the feeling of being on the winning end of a play. I have not question that and don't know why it keeps coming up.
Jar of Mayo sums it pretty well in his first statement. This play is the one you're upset with and pinning the downfall of the Patriots on? It is such a massive connect from a squib kick to the blocked punt-PR for a TD-Int for a TD if you take it just one step further it all connects to and is the fault of Kevin Bacon.

 

[Deus Irae]

I see the argument. It's just wrong. It's like watching a coin flip go heads 10 times in a row. Some would argue the coin flip will only go heads infinitely based on what they've seen, but that would be wrong.

There's lots of good stuff out there about the fallacy of momentum. Specific to the NFL, a few links below:

Nomentum, Part 1

Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Momentum 1: Scoring Rates following 'Momentum-Swinging' Events

And for the really nerdy:

http://www.sloansportsconference.co...ays-and-Psychological-Momentum-in-the-NFL.pdf

As for those who really hated the decision, the Expected Point difference between the Eagles starting on their 40 vs. their 20 was approximately 1 point. If they had recovered, they would have an EP of 2.5 vs. 1.5 for the Eagles recovering vs. 0.5 if they had gotten a touchback.

The success rate of an onside kick is only around 20%. But on unexpected onside kicks, it's closer to 60%. Even if you knock that down to a 50% jump ball type of recovery chance on an unexpected onside kick, the Patriots would be +5 points over 10 attempts.

Another scenario: if a team has 4th and goal from the 1 and goes for it vs. kicking a FG, they would gain more points over the course of a season if they were to convert 50% (because of the extra point). But even if that team converted 70%, that means failing 30% of the time. And after every one of those failed attempts, someone would point out how stupid it was.

I have no issue with the attempt. It really was a low-risk, high-reward scenario. It just didn't work out for us. The Eagles attempted the same thing later and it didn't lead to momentum changing either. It's just an excuse to cover up the fact our OL sucked, Brady had a bad day, our receivers dropped a lot of passes, our run D was terrible, and our special teams had the worst day in a while.

So it was momentum that caused Grissom to block the wrong guy on the punt and it was momentum that allowed the unblocked Eagle to block the punt?

C'mon.

So neither of you has ever played sports, then?

 

[Deus Irae]

Apparently there are some here who have a blind spot.

Anyone who's played sports, or even just watched a basketball game, knows that momentum exists and has an impact on games. So, anyone who's denying momentum, or its ability to impact a game, is just arguing a hidden agenda.

 

[Kontradiction]

So neither of you has ever played sports, then?

Apparently not. Either that or they haven't played a competitive sport in many decades and have forgotten.

 

[Zeus]

So neither of you has ever played sports, then?

That's a pretty good non sequitur.

Grissom blew the block and it cost the team seven points. That punt should be a low risk play if everyone executes their assignments. The blocked punt (and the Brady pick) had zero to do with momentum - they were mistakes.

Football by Football

 

[Sciz]

Well this is a fantastic discussion between the people saying that momentum was not a factor in this specific instance and the people attacking them with a completely different argument.

 

[Deus Irae]

That's a pretty good non sequitur.

Grissom blew the block and it cost the team seven points. That punt should be a low risk play if everyone executes their assignments. The blocked punt (and the Brady pick) had zero to do with momentum - they were mistakes.

Football by Football

It's not a non-sequitur, at all:

1. Mistakes are part of momentum
2. Capitalizing on mistakes is a part of momentum

Again, have you never played sports?

 

[Deus Irae]

Well this is a fantastic discussion between the people saying that momentum was not a factor in this specific instance and the people attacking them with a completely different argument.

Umm.....

I see the argument. It's just wrong. It's like watching a coin flip go heads 10 times in a row. Some would argue the coin flip will only go heads infinitely based on what they've seen, but that would be wrong.

There's lots of good stuff out there about the fallacy of momentum. Specific to the NFL, a few links below:

Nomentum, Part 1

Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Momentum 1: Scoring Rates following 'Momentum-Swinging' Events

And for the really nerdy:

http://www.sloansportsconference.co...ays-and-Psychological-Momentum-in-the-NFL.pdf

...

 

[Zeus]

It's not a non-sequitur, at all:

1. Mistakes are part of momentum
2. Capitalizing on mistakes is a part of momentum

Again, have you never played sports?

Grissom's error was a mental error. It wasn't anything to do with momentum. It was much more a mistake by NE on what should have been a routine, low-risk play rather than a great play the Eagles.

I think the real momentum shift occurs after the Brady pick six, which was the biggest play in the game. If you want to argue that the punt return doesn't happen without this, I'd listen to that (even though there were two simultaneous missed tackles on that play).

I just happen to disagree that the kickoff was a big factor either with respect to momentum or the outcome of the game. That's all. I'm pretty sure that none of the coaches or players lost any sleep over the pooch kickoff, especially when they had a blocked punt, a 99 yard pick-six and an 83 yard TD punt return directly affect the scoreboard by 24-28 points. (I remember the good old days when getting the ball on your own 41 after a punt of kickoff was called "good field position." Now it's a "short field." Hyperbole).

By the way, the non sequitur was your asking me whether I had ever played sports. For the record (and I won't bore anybody with the details) I've been immersed in sports for my entire life. However, that's not a prerequisite for having a well informed opinion on the subject at hand. So I prefer to regard your dig as a non sequitur (rather than a gratuitous insult on the part of someone who doesn't have much tolerance or respect for differing opinions).

I'm not really not all that interested in an argument - just wanted to state my opinion as part of a reasonable discussion. It's that's not welcome, then fine.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

So neither of you has ever played sports, then?

It's a fair question. I haven't participate at an international competition such as the Special Olympics like you have, but I used to play a few varsity sports back in the day...

I understand the concept of pressure. I understand confidence. I just don't think momentum is a valid enough reason to give up 35 points. A botched onside kick doesn't mean our OL gets caught holding all the time. A blocked punt doesn't mean our ST has to give up a punt return for a TD. If a professional athlete lets things from two quarters ago bother them, they probably aren't good enough to make it to the top level.

And lets really look at what happened. Botched onside kick. Philly scores. MOMENTUM!

The Patriots go 3 and out. MORE MOMENTUM!

The Philly offense...picks up one first down, punting 4 plays later. What happened to momentum here?

At this point, the Patriots played the clock and game situation poorly. They could have killed the rest of the half. They could have been aggressive. They were neither. Punt was blocked, MOMENTUM!

Go into halftime, the Patriots come out, pick up 20 yards and punt, MOMENTUM!

Except the Eagles offense goes 3 and out.

About the only points of sustained momentum would be the Patriots driving down to the 5 before the pick-6, followed by the punt return for a TD. And the Patriots comeback, although that was long overdue and more to do with the abandoning of the running game.

We had that crazy trick play with Brady, crowd gets fired up, momentum swinging our way...then throw a pick on the next play.

We score twice including an onside recovery, then get a miracle fumble recovery to give us a chance, and we...gain 12 yards and lose.

2 or 3 drives in a row, that's not momentum. It feels that way because we're talking about small sample sizes here.

Think back to the playoffs. Against the Ravens, we were down 14, come back to tie it up and force a punt, and then we throw a pick. The Ravens score to go into halftime back up, force a punt on the other side, score again to push the lead back up to 14. MOMENTUM!

Except then we score a TD to cut the lead on the very next drive. Then we force a punt. Then we score again on the trick play from Jules to Dola. Then get an interception in Baltimore territory. MOMENTUM! Except then we go 3 and out.

Against Seattle, they take a 10 point lead in the second half, force a 3 and out, then promptly do nothing on their next 2 drives, running 7 total plays. The Patriots score a TD, force a 3 and out, score again to take the lead, and momentum is on our side supposedly. Then Seattle drives all the way down to the one before turning it over. At that point, momentum is supposedly totally against us.

Momentum is a lazy way for sports writers to account for a game. Sometimes a play does impact a game. The pick 6 yesterday was our chance to put up at least 3, potentially 7, and instead we give up 7 and it feels like a 14-point swing. Yet despite it all, this team came back and had a chance to tie the game.

Momentum, tooth fairy, whatever else you want to believe in, that's fine, but there's not really any evidence to support it.

 

[captain stone]

So it was momentum that caused Grissom to block the wrong guy on the punt and it was momentum that allowed the unblocked Eagle to block the punt?

Yes.

That, and Gee-No Grissom completely sucks and is yet another in a long, long line of worthless, waaay over-drafted trash dumped on us by the "brain trust"(snicker).

 

[Deflatemyballs]

Grissom's error was a mental error. It wasn't anything to do with momentum. It was much more a mistake by NE on what should have been a routine, low-risk play rather than a great play the Eagles.

I think the real momentum shift occurs after the Brady pick six, which was the biggest play in the game. If you want to argue that the punt return doesn't happen without this, I'd listen to that (even though there were two simultaneous missed tackles on that play).

I just happen to disagree that the kickoff was a big factor either with respect to momentum or the outcome of the game. That's all. I'm pretty sure that none of the coaches or players lost any sleep over the pooch kickoff, especially when they had a blocked punt, a 99 yard pick-six and an 83 yard TD punt return directly affect the scoreboard by 24-28 points. (I remember the good old days when getting the ball on your own 41 after a punt of kickoff was called "good field position." Now it's a "short field." Hyperbole).

By the way, the non sequitur was your asking me whether I had ever played sports. For the record (and I won't bore anybody with the details) I've been immersed in sports for my entire life. However, that's not a prerequisite for having a well informed opinion on the subject at hand. So I prefer to regard your dig as a non sequitur (rather than a gratuitous insult on the part of someone who doesn't have much tolerance or respect for differing opinions).

I'm not really not all that interested in an argument - just wanted to state my opinion as part of a reasonable discussion. It's that's not welcome, then fine.

Psst, he still thinks Jamie Collins was a bad draft pick. That always shuts him up/makes him put you on his ignore list. Win/win

 

[captain stone]

Liar.

 

[Deus Irae]

It's a fair question. I haven't participate at an international competition such as the Special Olympics like you have, but I used to play a few varsity sports back in the day...

I played sports, I played at Division 1 college level and beyond (albeit barely), so your "Special Olympics" crack really doesn't hold water. I witnessed momentum flows and changes all the time during games. And your attempt to mock with your examples doesn't hold water, because I did not assign specific plays either as a result of momentum or as the momentum itself.

Momentum exists. That's why teams talk about not letting up on their opponent. It's why NBA games have an ebb and flow, and pickup games have teams that are obviously better until they start screwing around finding themselves unable to hold onto victories on the playground. You can't measure momentum, but you can feel it. You can feel it, and see it, in how your teammates get more focused, or less focused, with the concomitant results often accompanying that change in a correlating manner. It's just a more macro version of what can happen to the individual player.

That you claim momentum doesn't happen goes towards the likelihood that you never played sports. That's fine, but it is what it is.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I played sports, I played at Division 1 college level and beyond (albeit barely), so your "Special Olympics" crack really doesn't hold water. I witnessed momentum flows and changes all the time during games. And your attempt to mock with your examples doesn't hold water, because I did not assign specific plays either as a result of momentum or as the momentum itself.

Momentum exists. That's why teams talk about not letting up on their opponent. It's why NBA games have an ebb and flow, and pickup games have teams that are obviously better until they start screwing around finding themselves unable to hold onto victories on the playground. You can't measure momentum, but you can feel it. You can feel it, and see it, in how your teammates get more focused, or less focused, with the concomitant results often accompanying that change in a correlating manner. It's just a more macro version of what can happen to the individual player.

That you claim momentum doesn't happen goes towards the likelihood that you never played sports. That's fine, but it is what it is.

Hey super jock, it doesn't surprise me you were a better athlete than me. Although the Special Olympics crack had more to do with your mental than physical capacities, but since I have to explain that bit, I digress. And while I concede I haven't played at the higher levels, I've played multiple at a decent enough clip to understand what you're talking about. But playing at a higher level doesn't mean you know what you're talking about. Just listen to Marshall Faulk speak about the game and accept this is true.

I think you got a bit pissy and didn't really read the rest of my post either. The concept of pressure, I accept. And I do believe that one play now can affect a player later mentally, and thus physically. We've seen that with guys like Arrington.

But it also doesn't have to. It also doesn't affect an entire team. It is at an individual level, with individuals playing poorly.

Sometimes that affects the team. We've seen Brady press, and the QB controls so much. Or when Arrington struggled, he'd get picked on. And you can see teams making runs.

The problem is that it's not consistent or sustainable. We get a key turnover and score, and the sports writers say that was a momentum changer. But sometimes we don't score after the turnover. Then what?

Momentum in the real world is consistent. The sports definition of momentum is a bit flaky, and often assigned after the game is over. A failed onside kick that gave a net of 20 yards changed the game? Come on.

And over the course of a season, big "momentum" plays don't lead to more scoring than normal. But with small sample sizes, we assign more value than we should to some things.

If you flip a coin 100 times, there's around a 55% chance you'll string together at least 7 heads or 7 tails in a row at one point. Coin flips are totally unaffected by pressure, but we see streaks occurring. Now take that general streakiness and add in human emotion and you get a much wider variance of streakiness. But that doesn't prove momentum. Sometimes basketball teams hit 7 shots in a row.

Now before you go off the deep end, take a deep breath.

I accept that players feel pressure. It can come from what happens on the court or field. It can also be from their dad being in the stands. Or their last home game as a senior. Or a scout being in the stands. It isn't always just about what happens during the game. We're human, after all.

And I accept that the pressure affects players differently. They press. They make poor decisions. They panic. And this can lead to scoring runs or droughts in a game as well.

But that's just one team playing better than the other. A guy is struggling, you go after that guy. You force that team to adjust somehow. Then you adjust accordingly. That's strategy. Some guys get "hot" and cool off because that's just the way life goes. Some guys get hot for an entire night and it's not streakiness, but confidence.

Maybe to you, that's momentum. But it isn't consistent, it doesn't always make sense, you don't always know it until after the fact. I accept that's how some might see it.

But it's the equivalent of the old days when people believed walking under a ladder was bad luck. Well yeah, people use ladders to climb up and walking under people working is generally a bad idea. It's not luck, just a fact of life.

 

[everlong]

I just hate the timing of the play. Even though they recovered the one vs Washington I thought the same thing. At 14-0 just have Gostkowski kick it out of the end and make them start backed up.

As a side note I wonder if Ebner can pop it up right at the 10 yard mark with any consistency and use that as your onside kick in situations where you're forced to try it. Most kickers seem to only get the desired kick, not necessarily end result, about half the time. It would almost seem that Ebner could pop the bail higher which gives the kicking team an added advantage.

 

[A Defiant Goose]

I really don't see how you can say momentum has anything to do with a player missing a routine block on a punt. Momentum exists, but so do boneheaded self-inflicting errors.