Belichick: Bad judgement on 4th downs?

[luuked]

Everything seemed to go downhill after that bizarre decision and the Eagles players seemed to take offense to the fact that Belichick was running trick plays up 14-3 or whatever it was. It changed the entire momentum of the game and fired up their sidelines.

Sorry the moment you mention the word momentum I stop taking anything serious that comes afterwards. It is one of those narrative devices people use to build a story out of randomly occurring events. Again we stopped the two following snaps after the drop kick for essentially no gain and it required a conversion on third and 10 by Bradford to not make them punt.

So they gained 6 yards on first down. Their momentum right ? Then we stop Murray with a loss of 6 yards. Momentum back on our side correct ? But then they convert a 3rd and 10 ? So it is back with them ?

You know what fired up their team ? Converting a third and long being 3-14 down, blocking a punt for a TD with only 14 secs on the clock, a pick six on their own 1 yard line after halftime and just a series later a punt returned for a TD.

Everyone remembers how we were 14-3 up and pretends like we had total control of the game when in reality the game started with 5 punts showcasing how inconsistent our offense had become at that point in 2015 (Lewis gone, Edelman gone, Gronk out..). It was the K. Martin, B. LaFell, S. Chandler and Dola show on offense with a OL that started to get exposed.

 

[supafly]

Sorry the moment you mention the word momentum I stop taking anything serious that comes afterwards.

Well, that’s obviously your right to that opinion, but there are many who believe that momentum does indeed add to a team’s drive when they are rolling and the crowd is backing them up. Actually, there are many ex-football players who have stated such.

You can look at the 2013 Denver game, 2014 SB, 2016 SB, and maybe even this year’s AFCCG comeback as perfect examples of the team gelling together, getting fired up, and playing with an extra bit of fire that wasn’t there before. I don’t know how “random” all of those events were, but sometimes one or two big plays can definitely swing the game. You may not believe in that personally, but you don’t necessarily need to be snarky about it, either.

 

[luuked]

I don’t know how “random” all of those events were, but sometimes one or two big plays can definitely swing the game.

This has nothing to do with momentum. But a combination of being prepared during practices sessions of situations that may arise as well as then having the confidence to execute based on that prep work. Also it is not merely sometimes but essentially every game in the NFL (except for the blowouts) are decided by 3-4 50/50 plays.

None of your examples really make any point about momentum being relevant. Otherwise the Broncos win the 2013 game or when we go up after making the comeback it never reaches overtime. And both SBs are lost. How about the 2012 SF game ? 20+ unanswered points, "all the momentum" only to allow a big return on a kickoff ? Unless you think that momentum can be broken on any given play which then again goes to my point that by being so unstable it is essentially meaningless and random. You cant have it both ways. It cant be that important factor that gives a team a substantial edge but then suddenly switch from one team to the other in a blink of an eye just to switch again a few plays later. That would make it inherently pointless.

Seriously, explain to me how momentum makes sense in the context of the Atlanta game. Hightower gets us the ball back and we score. So momentum is clearly on our side, right ? Then Atlanta has -- out of nowhere -- a big run on their first snap and a few plays later has this big completion to Julio that takes them to FG range ? I suppose momentum is on their side now ? Then DMac blows up a run and Flowers sacks Ryan. Momentum with us again ? Where is the value to the entire concept if it just ping-pongs back and forth ? This is not snark but an honest question... it just makes zero sense to me..

 

[PittPatriot]

Momentum with us again ? Where is the value to the entire concept if it just ping-pongs back and forth ? This is not snark but an honest question... it just makes zero sense to me..

p=mv
It makes total sense to me.

 

[supafly]

This has nothing to do with momentum. But a combination of being prepared during practices sessions of situations that may arise as well as then having the confidence to execute based on that prep work. Also it is not merely sometimes but essentially every game in the NFL (except for the blowouts) are decided by 3-4 50/50 plays.

None of your examples really make any point about momentum being relevant. Otherwise the Broncos win the 2013 game or when we go up after making the comeback it never reaches overtime. And both SBs are lost. How about the 2012 SF game ? 20+ unanswered points, "all the momentum" only to allow a big return on a kickoff ? Unless you think that momentum can be broken on any given play which then again goes to my point that by being so unstable it is essentially meaningless and random. You cant have it both ways. It cant be that important factor that gives a team a substantial edge but then suddenly switch from one team to the other in a blink of an eye just to switch again a few plays later. That would make it inherently pointless.

Seriously, explain to me how momentum makes sense in the context of the Atlanta game. Hightower gets us the ball back and we score. So momentum is clearly on our side, right ? Then Atlanta has -- out of nowhere -- a big run on their first snap and a few plays later has this big completion to Julio that takes them to FG range ? I suppose momentum is on their side now ? Then DMac blows up a run and Flowers sacks Ryan. Momentum with us again ? Where is the value to the entire concept if it just ping-pongs back and forth ? This is not snark but an honest question... it just makes zero sense to me..

I don’t know if the idea of momentum necessarily has any scientific backing, but we’re certainly seen plenty of “random” events strung together that seem to fire the team up, and help change the outcome of the game. That’s up to personal opinion as to whether or not one believes that it’s a real thing or not, but most professional athletes do claim to believe in it.

Anyway, we’re getting away from the original debate as to whether or not Belichick had a severe lapse in judgment by suddenly deciding to try a bizarre type of onside kick that some Eagles players spoke of being disrespectful and firing them up in a game that they were easily winning 14-0 and coasting into the half. You don’t believe that it was an error in judgment, but I’m thinking that you’re in a small minority percentage of fans who feel that way.

 

[PittPatriot]

I don’t know if the idea of momentum necessarily has any scientific backing, but we’re certainly seen plenty of “random” events strung together that seem to fire the team up, and help change the outcome of the game. That’s up to personal opinion as to whether or not one believes that it’s a real thing or not, but most professional athletes do claim to believe in it.

Science completely backs momentum.
But outside events depending on their force can obviously change it as momentum isn’t infinite.
If @luuked fell down the stairs (his momentum is carrying him in down) and I happen to be there to catch him, I may stop his momentum...or if he is a big guy, his mass x velocity may carry me down with him.

 

[supafly]

Science completely backs momentum.
But outside events depending on their force can obviously change it as momentum isn’t infinite.
If @luuked fell down the stairs (his momentum is carrying him in down) and I happen to be there to catch him, I may stop his momentum...or if he is a big guy, his mass x velocity may carry me down with him.

I’m not a terribly science-y type of guy, so even some of the basic concepts of physics go right over my head, but I trust those much smarter than me in that area to help break it down.

If we’re debating the late 2015 season loss to PHI, where we were up 14-0 with about 7:00 left until halftime and instead of simply kicking the ball off like any other time, Belichick decides to try a weird ass dropkick rugby style onside kick, it could certainly be argued that it played a factor in helping to pump up the Eagles team and allowed them to play the “disrespect” card to their advantage. I think that argument is valid.

What’s amusing is that I defending almost all of the other numerous examples that the poster gave suggesting poor Belichick decisions, and yet the one I actually agree with is picked apart. Irony, I suppose.

 

[luuked]

You don’t believe that it was an error in judgment, but I’m thinking that you’re in a small minority percentage of fans who feel that way.

You are moving the goalposts here. There is a difference between saying something is an error in judgement or saying that the dropkick was causally the reason for us losing the game because it was what gave the Eagles the "momentum" that helped them flip the game. Where the latter is madness because the dropkick had nothing to do with the coaching staff brainfarting with time management, the ST brainfarting on their blocking assignments during that blocked punt, Brady brainfarting with a pick-6 that was returned from the Eagles 1 (and another INT later on) and nothing with the punt coverage team royally screwing up and letting Sproles return another punt for a TD.

They lost the game to awful time management and maybe the worst ST performance of the BB era. And those situations all had nothing at all to do with the dropkick.

Now whether it was a great decision to perform the kick or not is a entirely different discussion. I dont see why it was necessary or what we could have potentially gained from it at that point but that doesnt change the fact that if anything it only played a minuscule role in losing that game. Like I said my entire issue is with people bringing up the dropkick over the time management at the end of the first half.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Now whether it was a great decision to perform the kick or not is a entirely different discussion. I dont see why it was necessary or what we could have potentially gained from it at that point

In hindsight it was a great idea to have tried it! The extra 3 or 7 points that likely would have resulted from a successful execution of it would have come in handy later on in the game, as it turned out.

 

[supafly]

You are moving the goalposts here. There is a difference between saying something is an error in judgement or saying that the dropkick was causally the reason for us losing the game because it was what gave the Eagles the "momentum" that helped them flip the game. Where the latter is madness because the dropkick had nothing to do with the coaching staff brainfarting with time management, the ST brainfarting on their blocking assignments during that blocked punt, Brady brainfarting with a pick-6 that was returned from the Eagles 1 (and another INT later on) and nothing with the punt coverage team royally screwing up and letting Sproles return another punt for a TD.

They lost the game to awful time management and maybe the worst ST performance of the BB era. And those situations all had nothing at all to do with the dropkick.

Fair enough above moving the goal posts and discussing two different topics. I agree.

That said, I have no idea why someone wouldn’t include the enormous gaffe of attempting a weird onside dropkick out of the blue up 14-0 with 7:00 min left in the half with the rest of the special teams blunders. It was most certainly relevant to any of the other examples you’ve used, here. Blocked punts, returned punts for TDs, etc. Why do you feel as though the dropkick shouldn’t be included?

Didn’t we hear at least one or more of the Eagles players claiming during postgame interviews that they felt disrespected by it and that it definitely helped to pump the team up? Maybe the idea of giving them “momentum” is a poor phrase that you don’t care for, but it sure seemed to light a big fire under their asses, so I suppose you could call that whatever you’d prefer.

 

[AGCSBill]

Every play a team calls in the huddle is expected to work.

Think of how many of the same plays are called by the Pats in which some work, we remember those, and those that didn't, we slam the team for calling them. If every 4th down call was successful, we'd be saying "brilliant!".

Think back to SB49... if Seattle made that pass play to win, everyone would be touting it as brilliant given the whole world was expecting a rush play. It's context.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Fair enough above moving the goal posts and discussing two different topics. I agree.

That said, I have no idea why someone wouldn’t include the enormous gaffe of attempting a weird onside dropkick out of the blue up 14-0 with 7:00 min left in the half with the rest of the special teams blunders. It was most certainly relevant to any of the other examples you’ve used, here. Blocked punts, returned punts for TDs, etc. Why do you feel as though the dropkick shouldn’t be included?

Because there's nothing about it that was "an enormous gaffe". It cost NE about 12 yards of field position. Yawn. And you have to weigh against that the decent odds that the NE offense would have ended up with the ball on a short field (if the players executed the play just a little bit better they would have recovered the ball. It's not like it was a big miss.)

And they can talk about how allegedly it fired them all up (and I'd love to know if they even believed that when it happened or were saying it after the fact to troll NE/BB) but the fact remains they they still lose that game if not for multiple unforced errors by the NE players and coaching staff after that kick.

 

[supafly]

Because there's nothing about it that was "an enormous gaffe". It cost NE about 12 yards of field position. Yawn. And you have to weigh against that the decent odds that the NE offense would have ended up with the ball on a short field (if the players executed the play just a little bit better they would have recovered the ball. It's not like it was a big miss.)

And they can talk about how allegedly it fired them all up (and I'd love to know if they even believed that when it happened or were saying it after the fact to troll NE/BB) but the fact remains they they still lose that game if not for multiple unforced errors by the NE players and coaching staff after that kick.

C’mon. If you’re going to include other ST gaffes, then the one that set everything off should be on the list, too. Fair is fair. You don’t see Belichick doing that very often (or since), do you? I think there’s a pretty obvious reason for that. Kicking the ball off deep up 14-0 as you’re trying to run out the half is most definitely the better option.

You’re caught up on the idea of field position, but it’s the fact that there were Philly players who claimed that they found it very disrespectful to be attempting an onside kick in that type of situation up 14-0, and it certainly seemed to provide them a spark. If another team did that to us, we’d certainly be pounding that point home. I just don’t see this as one of Belichick’s better moves, and as I previously mentioned, I found a way to justify all of the other examples that were brought up by the OP, so I’m certainly not being harsh in my judgment.

I think we simply have a difference of opinions, so there’s probably not much else that can be said to sway each other’s side. Obviously, no one should be suggesting that this one play ruined the game, as there were plenty of other errors, but it certainly seemed to provide a spark and I don’t see it as one of Belichick’s better moves, that’s all.

 

[Ivan]

Just want to give some big props to the OP for finding several decisions out of the thousands and thousands Belichick has made to disagree with.

Great work

You have a bright future.

 

[captain stone]

Didn’t we hear at least one or more of the Eagles players claiming during postgame interviews that they felt disrespected by it and that it definitely helped to pump the team up? Maybe the idea of giving them “momentum” is a poor phrase that you don’t care for, but it sure seemed to light a big fire under their asses, so I suppose you could call that whatever you’d prefer.

Yep.

That Eagles team was This Close to mailing in another loss under the Chipster, whose ass would be fired barely a fortnight later, and the ****ed-up dropkick gave them 20 yards (NOT 12, but 20!) of life they never, EVER should've been given.

Claiming that this one play had nothing whatsoever to do with what followed, especially on Special Teams, is something with which I completely disagree.

 

[Ivan]

Oh god, I should have known how triggered and fragile everyone would act over this. God we have a million threads talking about how great he is, one thread discussing his missteps is just one too many for some.

That’s a load of sh.t. This board has been completely dominated by crybaby *****es crying about Butler, Belichick, and how terrible a coach he is since the Super Bowl. And you have spearheaded that movement.

Here’s an idea, get the f.ck over yourself and move on. Your not some brilliant football mind giving us a glimpse of your football genius, what you are is just another crybaby football fan who sits at home second guessing everything after it’s happpened. You shouldn’t coach a pee wee team, let alone try to substitute your “ knowledge” for Belichick’s.

 

[Ian]

That’s a load of sh.t. This board has been completely dominated by crybaby *****es crying about Butler, Belichick, and how terrible a coach he is since the Super Bowl. And you have spearheaded that movement.

Here’s an idea, get the f.ck over yourself and move on. Your not some brilliant football mind giving us a glimpse of your football genius, what you are is just another crybaby football fan who sits at home second guessing everything after it’s happpened. You shouldn’t coach a pee wee team, let alone try to substitute your “ knowledge” for Belichick’s.

Let's settle down. There have been plenty of people on here, including many who normally support Belichick, who disagree with some of the decisions that came up down the stretch, myself included. There's going to be a diverse group of opinions on here and let's try and remember that if it wasn't for that, there wouldn't be much to debate if everyone shared the same outlook. While I don't agree with some of those opinions, they're allowed to have them and we can have spirited debates without escalating it to this level. So let's try and tone it down a bit.

 

[TruthSeeker]

So...basically it’s a bad decision when he doesn’t make it? Pederson is a huge bone head if the Philly special fails.

Right. Where's the bad 4th down decision that actually works out? Certainly some of the bad ones should work (just like some of the good ones should fail).

I definitely agree with the 4th and 13 being a really bad decision. I still don't understand why BB wouldn't trust his rookie kicker.

 

[lancerman]

That’s a load of sh.t. This board has been completely dominated by crybaby *****es crying about Butler, Belichick, and how terrible a coach he is since the Super Bowl. And you have spearheaded that movement.

Here’s an idea, get the f.ck over yourself and move on. Your not some brilliant football mind giving us a glimpse of your football genius, what you are is just another crybaby football fan who sits at home second guessing everything after it’s happpened. You shouldn’t coach a pee wee team, let alone try to substitute your “ knowledge” for Belichick’s.

I can’t imagine someone fetishizing another man as much as you worship Belichick. Imagine getting triggered over someone posting a video that someone else made of 10 questionable coaching decisions spanning 18 year tenure and thinking it’s someone saying he sucks as a coach.

Grow up and act like an adult. You come off like a complete loser.

It’s a message board. Not a 1984 groupthink. Get over yourself

 

[Ian]

I can’t imagine someone fetishizing another man as much as you worship Belichick. Imagine getting triggered over someone posting a video that someone else made of 10 questionable coaching decisions spanning 18 year tenure and thinking it’s someone saying he sucks as a coach.

Grow up and act like an adult. You come off like a complete loser.

It’s a message board. Not a 1984 groupthink. Get over yourself

Again, I replied to Ivan's post and already addressed it. This works both ways, so I need you to exercise the same restraint I've asked of him. So let's move on.