Bad News Everyone - [Lombardi opinion on matchup vs Eagles]

[TheBostonStraggler]

Erstwhile self-proclaimed Belichick consigliere Mike Lombardi has declared that this is a "horrendous" matchup for the Patriots and he expects the Eagles to win "come hell or high water".

Lombardi seems to base this on the fact that the stuff that JAX did in the first half is evidently similar to what Kansas City in week 1, which gave NE so much trouble. Furthermore, he claims that PHI is the best team the Brady-BB era Patriots have faced in the Super Bowl (!!!). I guess Seattle, Atlanta, the '04 Eagles, and the god damn Greatest Show on Turf slipped his mind.

Objectively I don't really see the argument. Sure Philly has looked formidable, and Foles is going to be a starter somewhere next year. But the Patriots defense has come leaps and bounds from week 1, the defense played very well in the second half yesterday. They'll have two weeks to prepare for the read option stuff. TEN ran similar concepts and they had no problem with it. The real issue is how dumpoffs and wheel routes continually exposed our weak linebacking corps--but honestly that was an issue last year too. Thank GOD Sproles is out.

Point being, Lombardi is overselling, probably because he looks like a total ******* for inexplicably trashing on Pederson so much at the start of the year, so now he wants to get back into Philly's good graces (good luck). I listened to GM Street a lot this year just because Lombardi always has a good anecdote or two, but his prognostications seem to always have an agenda (and he wants you think he's way more plugged in than he really is). Keep in mind he also picked Pittsburgh to go to the Super Bowl over New England, so this isn't exactly a vaunted track record we're up against here.

No one can doubt Lombardi's prognostication is extremely concerning. He hasn't been wrong yet...

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

We can still cry about those who dare to think the Patriots are mortal in a few days. We don't need to get stupid about it already.

Rule #1 for Internet posting: never put off looking stupid tomorrow when you can look stupid today.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

The Patriots have been in SBs with favorable matchups and concerning matchups. They've come into SBs looking like world beaters and come into SBs with conspicuous concerns. They've been highly favored, favored, and even been underdogs. Yet through it all only one constant has remained: the final minutes and ultimate score is frighteningly close.
Lombardi may have some fair arguments, however, based on history one seems to be on very solid ground to suggest the whole "matchup" analysis is just window dressing for what will ultimately be a nail biter where "matchups" are replaced by "who makes a few plays at the right time". Again that is based on a history that contains a wide number of Patriot and opponent variables that always has ended with final score that is tight as a drum. Is there some magic potion statistic this time around that dismisses the history and makes the opponent much more likely to have it wrapped up well before the final minutes of the game?

 

[Tunescribe]

I think just like Jacksonville the game they played BEFORE the Pats was the best game they play in the playoffs. The Jags dominated Pittsburgh, but couldn't sustain that intensity going into the Pats matchup. The same thing will happen to the Eagles. They were peaking against the Vikings. Everything worked, now they slowly cool as a million different things slowly erode the edge they had until finally after a week and a half of super bowl requests, pressers, interviews, ticket requests, and every dang thing that accompanies it comes up and they just want to have it start, and its still a half a week to gametime.
Then finally the game starts and its 5 minute breaks at change of possession, 15 minutes at the end of quarters, 45 minutes halftime, all acting as as cold water splashing them in the face forcing them to cool their heels and wait again.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are running extra wind sprints every day to bolster their edge in conditioning for the game's fourth quarter when Foles starts barfing in proven Eagles tradition.

 

[JMC00]

No one can doubt Lombardi's prognostication is extremely concerning. He hasn't been wrong yet...

He's wrong a lot. Before the season he was absolutely shredding Doug Pederson, basically saying he was the worst coach in the league and now he's out there saying Pederson is gonna out scheme Belichick.

 

[patfanken]

Lombardi has been pimping the Pats and the Patriot Way for years now. But he's "in the media" now and a hot take every now and then gets him more radio gigs, more unbiased credibility amongst his peers, and pumps up his clicks on Ringer and the GM podcast. Remember that's his JOB now.

Not that what he implies isn't true. The Eagles have BOTH great O and DL's. They have a plethora of RB's of different skills. LGB, who I think we can handle, but also Ajaii and Clement. Both are of the quicker variety who give the Pats problems both in the run and passing games. Just look at the what the Jags just did. And I think the Eagles RB corps is better.

On defense, it will be more of the same. Fortunately, the Pats have played a LOT of good defensive fronts this season, but not with this much depth. They won't wear out like the Titans and the Jags fronts. They have decent DB's and better LB's than we have.

I can see this being much like the last 2 weeks. It will take a few drives before they get things figured out and then start to move the ball with consistency like they did at the end of the game.

I can also so the RPO look, give the Pats a bunch of issues. KC had great success with elements of it, as well as the Bills. So it is a legit point for Lombardi. Not only can it cause confusion on passes, it has the tendency to open up running lanes, where one missed tackle can mean a big gain.

On the other hand, it's a limited offense in the number of plays and formations you can use, so with two weeks to prepare, the Pats should do a lot better this time around facing this kind of offense.

I agree with DI, why are we getting so pissy about someone thinking the Eagles can win this game. NEWSFLASH!!!!! The Eagles CAN with this game. They have the superior overall personnel. They have the all pros, name brand athletes, etc; while we have the no-name front seven, and WR's from Walmart.

What we DO have is Brady, Gronk, and a tough-minded group that KNOWS how to play 60 minutes and win close games. A group where the sum will always be greater than the individual parts. THAT is what is making us favorites

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

He's wrong a lot. Before the season he was absolutely shredding Doug Pederson, basically saying he was the worst coach in the league and now he's out there saying Pederson is gonna out scheme Belichick.

Exactly. And this is not to say his analysis is wrong, however, it's one guy's opinion (in what will be a sea of opinions) who has been right sometime and not right sometime.

Hey, everyone should be pretty impressed with the Eagles. They put a beating on arguably the league's best or second best statistical defense. Nick Foles was just about 80% completion rate with better than 10 per attempt. They were 10/14 on 3rd down conversions and 2/2 in the RZ, no turnovers. That's stunning good and it is also, just about, an extreme outlier for Foles in any game since Wentz went down. Their D also played well (stingy on points - what matters most) but is anyone going to wager the Patriots O won't find a way to get it done somewhat better than the Vikings did?
But maybe they will have the Patriots number and Foles will repeat near 70 to 80% and 9 to 10 yards per completion and the D will be shutdown and keep the Patriots under 14 (their D has been consistently good)? Maybe bu I wouldn't wager on it.

To play the statistical analysis game on ones I do like for the Patriots: Philly is not a big number sack team(2.3 a game, Patriots 3 per game). Their sack% was actually the worst of all teams in the NFC playoffs and 2nd worst overall. Any team that has hard time threatening Brady in the pocket? I like that a lot. Philly also gives up 60% comp rate to opposition (though a very good 6.5 per attempt). Their pass TD % allowed is basically equivalent to the Patriots (that includes how poor the Patriots D was in first half of season). They've given up 24 TD passes (but only 7 by rush - their rush D is good). RZ % D for Philly is middling and is far below the Patriots RZ D (Minn 0/3 RZ efficiency. Another outlier game for Philly).
But overall from a overall statistical analysis, the Eagles more likely than not win this game. So there you go with stats for everyone who wants to break that down.

Regardless, again I'd be shocked if this isn't another SB that comes down to the final couple of possessions and who makes that one or two plays that change the game trajectory and outcome. This is based entirely on this is what the Patriots have demonstrated repeatedly. And we will see, either way, come a week from Sunday.

 

[Biffins]

Erstwhile self-proclaimed Belichick consigliere Mike Lombardi has declared that this is a "horrendous" matchup for the Patriots and he expects the Eagles to win "come hell or high water".

Lombardi seems to base this on the fact that the stuff that JAX did in the first half is evidently similar to what Kansas City in week 1, which gave NE so much trouble. Furthermore, he claims that PHI is the best team the Brady-BB era Patriots have faced in the Super Bowl (!!!). I guess Seattle, Atlanta, the '04 Eagles, and the god damn Greatest Show on Turf slipped his mind.

Objectively I don't really see the argument. Sure Philly has looked formidable, and Foles is going to be a starter somewhere next year. But the Patriots defense has come leaps and bounds from week 1, the defense played very well in the second half yesterday. They'll have two weeks to prepare for the read option stuff. TEN ran similar concepts and they had no problem with it. The real issue is how dumpoffs and wheel routes continually exposed our weak linebacking corps--but honestly that was an issue last year too. Thank GOD Sproles is out.

Point being, Lombardi is overselling, probably because he looks like a total ******* for inexplicably trashing on Pederson so much at the start of the year, so now he wants to get back into Philly's good graces (good luck). I listened to GM Street a lot this year just because Lombardi always has a good anecdote or two, but his prognostications seem to always have an agenda (and he wants you think he's way more plugged in than he really is). Keep in mind he also picked Pittsburgh to go to the Super Bowl over New England, so this isn't exactly a vaunted track record we're up against here.

It's one thing to say it's a tough matchup and the defending SuperBowl Champions with the league MVP could have trouble.

It's quite another to say Nick Foles will beat Tom Brady "Come Hell or High Water"
Lombardi GTFOH.

 

[Soliel]

It's one thing to say it's a tough matchup and the defending SuperBowl Champions with the league MVP could have trouble.

It's quite another to say Nick Foles will beat Tom Brady "Come Hell or High Water"
Lombardi GTFOH.

Lombardi has joined the ranks of putrid hot take artists. He probably don’t even think that

 

[Pats1989]

Huh?

In theory, when you lose to an opponent, that means they were more difficult to defeat that a team in which you defeated.

I'm not necessarily talking about the degree of difficulty in the actual game. I'm more referring to how good the opposing team was ( reg season & playoffs) going into the game. I believe the Rams SB was the only game where the Patriots were a clear underdog going in.

 

[Pats1989]

Lombardi has been pimping the Pats and the Patriot Way for years now. But he's "in the media" now and a hot take every now and then gets him more radio gigs, more unbiased credibility amongst his peers, and pumps up his clicks on Ringer and the GM podcast. Remember that's his JOB now.

Not that what he implies isn't true. The Eagles have BOTH great O and DL's. They have a plethora of RB's of different skills. LGB, who I think we can handle, but also Ajaii and Clement. Both are of the quicker variety who give the Pats problems both in the run and passing games. Just look at the what the Jags just did. And I think the Eagles RB corps is better.

On defense, it will be more of the same. Fortunately, the Pats have played a LOT of good defensive fronts this season, but not with this much depth. They won't wear out like the Titans and the Jags fronts. They have decent DB's and better LB's than we have.

I can see this being much like the last 2 weeks. It will take a few drives before they get things figured out and then start to move the ball with consistency like they did at the end of the game.

I can also so the RPO look, give the Pats a bunch of issues. KC had great success with elements of it, as well as the Bills. So it is a legit point for Lombardi. Not only can it cause confusion on passes, it has the tendency to open up running lanes, where one missed tackle can mean a big gain.

On the other hand, it's a limited offense in the number of plays and formations you can use, so with two weeks to prepare, the Pats should do a lot better this time around facing this kind of offense.

I agree with DI, why are we getting so pissy about someone thinking the Eagles can win this game. NEWSFLASH!!!!! The Eagles CAN with this game. They have the superior overall personnel. They have the all pros, name brand athletes, etc; while we have the no-name front seven, and WR's from Walmart.

What we DO have is Brady, Gronk, and a tough-minded group that KNOWS how to play 60 minutes and win close games. A group where the sum will always be greater than the individual parts. THAT is what is making us favorites

Eagles do have the better receivers, D, and RB's. Patriots will need to be at their best for 4 quarters.

 

[Ivan]

It's one thing to say it's a tough matchup and the defending SuperBowl Champions with the league MVP could have trouble.

It's quite another to say Nick Foles will beat Tom Brady "Come Hell or High Water"
Lombardi GTFOH.

They have faced one of the great offenses of all time in St. Louis and won, one of the two best defense’s of this century in Seattle and won, and they came back from 25 down with 18 minutes to go against Atlanta last year and won , if they can’t beat a Philly team led by Nick Foles they have absolutely no business hoisting the Lombardi this season.

 

[UFGatorPat]

Eagles do have the better receivers, D, and RB's. Patriots will need to be at their best for 4 quarters.

I think we are equal at RB in terms of advantage and what we can do and better at receiving with Gronk. They can’t cover TEs.

Yes, they have a better D but their secondary and LB can give up plenty of chunk plays. They rely on TOs and a consistent pass rush that forces those. They are excellent against the run but we can still run at them and at worst use the backs in the pass game much easier than Jax

 

[patsfanincleveland]

It's one thing to say it's a tough matchup and the defending SuperBowl Champions with the league MVP could have trouble.

It's quite another to say Nick Foles will beat Tom Brady "Come Hell or High Water"
Lombardi GTFOH.

Yeah this about sums it up.

10 days ago, Philly was the first one seed ever to be an underdog to a 6 seed.

Now they are the Broad Street Bullies......the greatest, most unbelievable collection of talent to ever grace the gridion.

Ever notice that the Pats are never a bad matchup for anyone?

Has the Patriots ever been the team "nobody wants to face"?

Who judged Minnesota correctly? Why does that translate?

 

[fightingirish595]

I think it’s ridiculous for anyone to say “this is the “insert ranking here” team we’ve faced in the Super Bowl. Who cares. It makes so sense to say something like that when the patriots have a different team every year.

The Eagles are very good on both lines of scrimmage and that is very concerning

Nothing from previous years matters. It’s all about how these two teams matchup. The eagles are a very good football team

 

[RobertWeathers]

I'm not necessarily talking about the degree of difficulty in the actual game. I'm more referring to how good the opposing team was ( reg season & playoffs) going into the game. I believe the Rams SB was the only game where the Patriots were a clear underdog going in.

I get it. 01 Rams were an outstanding team.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I think the Eagles offense is much better than what we’ve faced lately, too, especially your Jaguars comparison.

Agree. They don't have rock stars but they are solid at every position

 

[RobertWeathers]

Not in the NFL's single elimination style playoffs.

The team playing better typically wins. If both teams are playing great then its about matchups. Then talent.

 

[mosi]

What I don't know is why this is bad news. Some media head DOUBTS the patriots? And this is bad news?

 

[goheels22002]

Look. The last three games by the Eagles before the Vikings NFCC were wins with score 19-10 over the Raiders, 6-0 over the Cowboys, and 15-10 over the Falcons in the divisional round. That's more representative of the Nick Foles tenure than the blowout at home where the Vikings just fell apart when punched in the mouth. The Patriots won't wilt under the bright lights.

I looked at the highlights from the 15-10 Falcons win, and came away much less impressed than from seeing Sunday's game. First thing you'll notice is how far off the receivers the Eagles DBs play giving them a clean break off the line. If the Patriots receivers can cleanly get into their routes, Brady will pick them apart. The D-line for the Eagles is fast but not as physically imposing as the Jags.

Offensively, the Eagles throw the ball down the sidelines a lot. I think Butler and Gilmore are more than a match for their receivers. Also, are we really worried about Ajayi and Blount in the backfield? The Pats know those guys. I think the Pats do the same thing they did in the second half against the Jags. Stop the run and make Foles throw into coverage.

If the Eagles have an extraordinary unit, it's the offensive line. They are disciplined and keep pressure off the QB. My guess is gap discipline, three-man rushes, and lots of dime packages to make Foles throw into coverage.

The Vikings game was an outlier to me. They looked stunned. Zimmer was a deer in the headlights by the middle of the second quarter. The Patriots won't get rattled if the Eagles have some success. And, most important, the Patriots will be ready for the hype and distractions. Very few Eagles have been through Super Bowl week. Just about everyone on the Patriots has been here, done that.