Now we do 2020. And I will keep this distance for future post. Cause while usually 5 is enough and in a way it is fair, because that is how long a rookie first round contract can last. 4 years + 5th year option. But the franchise tag matters too. To me these are in some ways the same kind of thing. So while 5 years of data should be enough. 6 years is probably more fair. I did grade on 5 years in the past and I will not go back and revisit those grades. But 6 moving forwards sound more fair. And it will matter cause in 2020 one player in particular turns from a miss into a hit due to this extra year.
Now that that is out of the way… on to the grades. There were 13 players given first round grades by Bacon in 2020. QB - Tua, Burrow. Both are hits. Burrow is obvious. Tua while not amazing has started 6 straight years and has had some good ones. Can’t not be a hit. Chase Young is a clearer hit due to his 6th year. He has injury issues year 2 and 3 which almost derailed him. He has a decent year 4 but it was a come back year and no starts year 5. This would have been a close thing if not for his comeback year 6. He’s a hit.
At Wr Lamb is a clear hit. Juedy is a hit too. But not a good one. Really more of a #2 which you hope for more in round 1. But he has some great traits, his PB season in 24’ show this. Reagor is a clear bust. Okudah is a bust. Maybe it was injuries, but stil la bust. Simmons is a bust too. But at least he is still in the league. Not worth a 1st though. OT is tricky. Wirfs and Thomas are clear hits. Wills is tricky as he was doing pretty well before year 4 and 5 happened. Then he sat year 6 out which was probably the right move to sign a year 7 prove it deal. I have to come down somewhere. I will give him a hit as he was worth the pick until injuries in year 4.. playing solidly in 3 years matters. Because I gave a little slack on Wills Becton has none. He is a bust. Ruiz is barely a hit. I will never not call a full time interior starter a bust. Even a bad one. But if you take an interior guy in RD1 you want better than him.
QB – Burrow, Tua 2/2
WR - Lamb, Juedy, Jalen Reagor 2/3
ED – Chase Young 1/1
CB - Jeffrey Okudah. 0/1
LB - Isaiah Simmons. 0/1
OT - Andrew Thomas, Jedrick Wills, Mekhi Becton, Triston Wirfs. 3/4
C - Cesar Ruiz. 1/1
9/13
R2 59
QB – 2 Jordan Love, Justin Herbert
ED – 3 K’Lavon Chaisson. Yetur Gross-Matos, AJ Epensea
WR – 11 - Henry Ruggs, Justin Jefferson, Laviska Shanault, Denzel Mims, Michael Pittman, Bryan Edwards, Tee Higgins, Gabriel Davis, Brandon Aiyuk, Devin Duvernay, Donovan Peoples-Jones
DT – 4 – Javon Kinlaw, Derrick Brown, Justin Madubuike, Jordan Elliot
CB – 8 – CJ Henderson, Damon Arnette, Jeff Gladney, AJ Terrell, Bryce Hall, Kristian Fulton, Jaylon Johnson, Trevon Diggs
RB – 4 – Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, Cam Akers, JK Dobbins
LB – 7 - Kenneth Murray, Patrick Queen, Zack Baun, Malik Harrison, Akeem Davis-Gaither, Willie Gay, Logan Wilson
OT – 4 – Austin Jackson, Isaish Wilson, Josh Jones, Ezra Cleveland
S – 8 - Antoine Winfield, Ashtyn Davis, Jetemy Chinn, Xavier McKinney, Terrell Burgess, K’von Wallace, Kyle Dugger, Grant Delpit
OG – 3 - Damien Lewis, Jonah Jackson, Shane Lemieux
TE – 3 – Adem Trautman, Cole Kmet, Harrison Bryant, Chase Claypool
OC – 2 Llyod Cushenberry, Matt Hennessey
QB 2/2 – Both hits.
ED – 3/3 - Chaisson turned into a yes very late. Was miss used. Gross-Matos was kind of a hit who turned into a miss later.. very close. Epensea is a quality pass rusher specialist. I will could easily split the difference. But I don’t want to just do that and take the easy way out. So I will give all these edge cases a hit as I think all barely deserve it.
WR 5/11 – Jefferson, Aiyuk, Higgens, Pittman are clear hits. Ruggs, Mims, Edwards, Shaunalt are clear bust. Gabe Davis was injured in 24 and 25. But his first 4 seasons make him a hit. Hope he gets back. Duvernay and Peoples-Jones had some moments but are in the miss category
DT – 3 / 4 Kinlaw is hard as injuries in key years 2 and 3 hurt him… but when he has played he started. I will give him a hit even though his play isn’t amazing and his contract shows his team values him. Elliot on the surface may look like a hit cause he gets starts. But he hasn’t played 50% of snaps in the past 3 years and his contract and stats don’t support his case, nor do his grades or stats. Miss. Brown and Madubuike are clear hits.
CB – 4/7* - Henderson and Arnette are bust. Gladney gets a rare mulligan from me for his tragic early death. I will simply not include him in the sample. Johnson, Diggs and Terrell are all hits. Hall played some but being out of the league by 2025 makes him a bust. Fulton has been inconsistent… but when healthy has had enough good stretches to call him a hit.
RB – 3 / 4 Swift and Taylor are clear hits. Akers is a bit of a bust due maybe to injury. Point is he never produced much after year 2 and even before then he wasn’t a starter. So he is a bust for me. Dobbins has injuries too, but when healthy has been impactful. Hit IMO.
LB – 4/7 Queen, Baun and Wilson are all hits. Baun is a good example of why 6 years should be used from now on. His first 4 made him a bust. The last 2 have made him a huge hit. Murray isn’t sexy, but he starts, plays snaps and is valued by the league. Hit. Harrison is hard to grade. A career rotational piece and Ster. He is paid for his value… but just not worth a second. Miss. Davis-Gaither had his best year last year out of Cinci, but not near enough. Miss.
OT – 1/ 4 Jackson could have been good. But injuries. Miss. Wilson = Bust. Jones is a top quality reserve but not really a starter. There are 5 spots on the OL, if you can’t start any reliably you are a rd2 miss. Cleveland is a hit. Brutal OT outcome.
S – 5/8 Winfield, Chinn and McKinney are hits. Dugger is a hit too. Just not longer fit here. Delpit was a hit too. Wallace is a depth piece. Miss. Burgess is the same. Miss. Davis is the most tricky to grade, but overall still a miss.
OG – 2/3 - Lewis and Jackson are both clear hits. Shane Lemieux is a miss.
TE - 1 / 4 – Kmet is a hit. The rest are bust. Claypool is super weird. 2 good seasons… looking like a very solid it. Left Pitt half way through another decent 3rd season then fell off the face of the earth and it out of the league. Bryant and Trautman are still in the league, but not worth a 2nd.
C – 1 /2 - Cushenberry is a hit. Hennessy is a backup. Miss.
Overall for the 58 of the 59 players I graded here. 34 were hits out of 58 names for 59%.
