Atlanta's Defense

[robbomango]

It was a joke lighten up...

LMAO, yes that's pretty much how it went!

The OAK game boxscore shows you guys about even going into the 4th qtr, also you lost to Seattle and Philly. I haven't looked up at the others.

If we're going to adjust stat line negating late game scoring that would help us out as well. I believe there were more than a few games with teams scoring late but only a TD or field goals. Steelers 8, Niners 7, Dolphins, Raves 6(actually a lot of the ravens scores(14pts)only came off our dumb turnovers on our side of the field, similar to the Texans.

Look I haven't watched all of your games and don't know much about the scores I'm looking at. It was obviously an attempt at humor geeeeeeeeeeeshhhh!

 

[JMC00]

Hey Falcons homer, explain being up 27-10 with 4 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter at home and losing 33-30 to the San Diego Los Angeles Chargers.

You can't tell us it was the prevent defense that allowed the Chargers to outscore you 20-3 and win the game.

Then explain how you let Captain Checkdown Alex Smith go 21/25 for 270 and a QB rating of 125. That 10.8 avg per attempt was his highest in 4 seasons.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

All we really have to go by are numbers in a relative capacity. The numbers tell us that the Patriots offense is only slightly worse than that of the Falcons while the Patriots defense is significantly better than that of the Falcons.

Good news is: That crap doesn't mean anything when the game starts.

I would definitely consider New England the more balanced of the two teams. The Patriots ranked No. 2 on offense and No. 16 on defense in the DVOA efficiency metrics developed by Football Outsiders. Whereas Atlanta ranked No. 1 on offense and No. 27 on defense.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

I would definitely consider New England the more balanced of the two teams. The Patriots ranked No. 2 on offense and No. 16 on defense in the DVOA efficiency metrics developed by Football Outsiders. Whereas Atlanta ranked No. 1 on offense and No. 27 on defense.

 

[n1997y]

Did you see the play when Hageman sprawled out like he was hurt while the play went on beside him??.. It was Haynesworthy-esque and not in a good way.. He was gassed... Bubba if that gassed you, wait for two weeks from now....

think he'll like New England's pace of play do you?

 

[n1997y]

Welcome to the board Falcon fans, appreciate the input. Should be a great game!

Agree, and very much appreciate the civilized discussion about football. Much more enjoyable than trash talking!

 

[robbomango]

They haven't been blown out in any of their 5 losses and both teams have potential to blow people out. We've had one 17pt loss to the bills with injured Biscuit at QB. The season numbers along with our usual SB showings suggest that regardless of who wins, this is going to be neck and neck.

A fingernail biting, ripping clumps of hair out, door kicking, TV breaking, wall hole punching, life shortening heart exploder....

Can't wait!!!

 

[luuked]

Their decision to throw it on 1st and goal from the 1 yard line instead of running beast mode up the middle 4 times cost them that game. DQ's defense put them in position for back to back. I am in no way trying to say our defense in on the same level as Seattle's from 2013 and 2014, but it isn't exactly that far off either.

I'd say getting torched by our offense for almost 3 quarters including giving up 2 TDs in the last 15 minutes is what lost them the game. Their defense got **** upon for almost the entire game with turnovers and low percentage deep throws being the only thing keeping the Seahawks in the game. Same a few years back @Seattle.

I am really not concerned about our offense playing a Quinn defense. We usually deal with them pretty efficiently. Like others have said, this game will most probably come down to "can Atlanta score more than 30-35 points" because in an average game the Patriots can definitely put a 40 burger on that defense if they have to.

As usual turnovers can change the matchup in totally unpredictable ways therefore I am talking about the average game.

 

[luuked]

That's an example of a bad defensive performance. I could never imagine bragging about such a performance like the Falcons fan is doing. But when you've got a horrendous defense, I guess you'll try to find any positive you can.

Didn't help in terms of TOP that Jimmy got injured and our offense became a one-dimensional, ineffective mess of 3 & outs with Brissett in.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

Very interesting. I also looked a bit more into their breakdown:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Conference Championship Quick Reads/DVOA Ratings

If we include all the postseason games, the Patriots are No. 1 and the Falcons are No. 2 in both weighted DVOA and total DVOA. Of course, total DVOA includes the four games when Tom Brady was suspended, so the Patriots have a much larger advantage in weighted DVOA.

In weighted DVOA, the Patriots are now at 40.8%. That can be split into 24.3% offense (3), -11.0% defense (6), and 5.5% special teams (5).

The Falcons are now at 24.2%. That can be split into 28.1% offense (1), 4.2% defense (22), and 0.3% special teams (17).

In total DVOA, the Patriots are now at 29.5%. That's split into 21.9% offense (2), -3.7% defense (12), and 3.8% special teams (7).

The Falcons are now at 21.5%. That's split into 26.6% offense (1), 6.8% defense (25), and 1.8% special teams (9).​

 

[goheels22002]

They are a bit underrated. They are a young group that has improved as the year has gone on. So they are not as bad as their stats say. However they started off bad and became average. They will not jump from average to good.

I don't put much stock in the GB game. They had a lot of help from GB. miscues which lead to a missed FG and a badly timed fumbled. The drops and Rodgers just not playing well. The OL not coming to play and the injuries piling up there making it worse.

They did well vs GB don't get me wrong but GB laid an egg and when they managed to get any momentum in the first half they snuffed it out themselves mostly.

Their D is IMO average. If Beasley is ineffective a tad below average. That is what I expect 2 Sundays from now. If out OL holds their D will have no answer for our offense. IDC if they are in man or zone or goal line. They difference in ability will show.

Falcons team defense sucks. 27th in points allowed, 27th in yards allowed, 27th in TDs allowed 16th in rushing yards allowed, 19th in rushing TDs allowed, etc, etc, etc.

The Patriots offense will get these guys gassed early and keep the pressure on the Falcons to keep up. If the Pats get a lead, they have the weapons to grind out long drives against these hosers and keep Ryan off the field.

2016 NFL Opposition & Defensive Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[1960Pats]

I do think that their rankings can be a bit misleading, as with so many young starters you expect that they'll get better as those players get more comfortable in the NFL (assuming they are well coached, which they appear to be).

There's also the Super Bowl factor, which can really mix things up. As much as I "expect" this to be a 35-31 style game, I'll never be shocked by a random 21-17 game in a Super Bowl. It's basically a circus, throw everything to this point out the window.

For many years in the 80's and 90's the SB was a boring blowout. I think it was because a lot of teams didn't handle the extra time and attention very well. More recently, the 00's and 10's, the games have been more exciting and more competitive overall.

 

[Rivered082]

It was a joke lighten up...

The OAK game boxscore shows you guys about even going into the 4th qtr, also you lost to Seattle and Philly. I haven't looked up at the others.

If we're going to adjust stat line negating late game scoring that would help us out as well. I believe there were more than a few games with teams scoring late but only a TD or field goals. Steelers 8, Niners 7, Dolphins, Raves 6(actually a lot of the ravens scores(14pts)only came off our dumb turnovers on our side of the field, similar to the Texans.

Look I haven't watched all of your games and don't know much about the scores I'm looking at. It was obviously an attempt at humor geeeeeeeeeeeshhhh!

I was just trying to show how far out of hand the games typically were when the team shut it down. Early in the season, our rookies and second year guys were getting picked on often. They were having to think too much versus reacting. They often played off too far in order to keep the ball in front of them. It didn't help matters much that Neal missed the first few games, Collins was suspended for 4 games, and Campbell was out too due to some nagging injuries. 2/3 of the starting D is comprised of 1st/2nd/3rd year players.

While they did get beat early and often for scores before the bye week, they also played a top half of the league offenses 6 out of 9 games. They played top half offenses 5/7 games to close the season, also. The Pats faced 4 all year. The Falcons' average scoring offense that they played against was 13.88. The Pats' average scoring offense played was 20.94.

Contrast that with the average scoring defense played, NE played an average scoring defense of around 14 while ATL faced an average scoring defense of around 16.

Since some of your fellow fans on here can't seem to get past the 27th scoring D ranking, I can't help but wonder how much of a factor playing trash offenses all year played into your defense's stats. I mean, they only played 4 top half offenses all year (Ari #6, Buf #10 x 2, and Pit #12).

If all we are doing here is assuming things based on regular season stats, then is it safe to assume your defensive stats only look good because they have played bottom of the barrel offenses all year?

There have been a few bumps in the road, but they were all learning moments that helped mold the Falcons' D into what it has been over the last half of the season/postseason. Some of you are going be pretty surprised at how well they play.

 

[Rivered082]

Falcons team defense sucks. 27th in points allowed, 27th in yards allowed, 27th in TDs allowed 16th in rushing yards allowed, 19th in rushing TDs allowed, etc, etc, etc.

The Patriots offense will get these guys gassed early and keep the pressure on the Falcons to keep up. If the Pats get a lead, they have the weapons to grind out long drives against these hosers and keep Ryan off the field.

2016 NFL Opposition & Defensive Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com

You sure are going to be disappointed about how wrong you are. I don't expect you to have watched all of our games, but you couldn't be any further off about the quality of our D. If you had watched any of our games, you'd see the exact moment in the fourth quarter in nearly every game when the team quit trying, and started trading yards and points for time off of the clock. As a fan, this was nerve racking because it made the games way closer than they were. I can only assume this was to help reduce the grind over the course of the season. Had they kept their foot on the gas throughout the whole game, then they likely finish top 16 in scoring D. You can literally see the exact moment in each game where this happens. I'm hoping we see it again next Sunday!

 

[TommyD4207]

You sure are going to be disappointed about how wrong you are. I don't expect you to have watched all of our games, but you couldn't be any further off about the quality of our D. If you had watched any of our games, you'd see the exact moment in the fourth quarter in nearly every game when the team quit trying, and started trading yards and points for time off of the clock. As a fan, this was nerve racking because it made the games way closer than they were. I can only assume this was to help reduce the grind over the course of the season. Had they kept their foot on the gas throughout the whole game, then they likely finish top 16 in scoring D. You can literally see the exact moment in each game where this happens. I'm hoping we see it again next Sunday!

You do realize that's not nearly good enough, right?

You sound exactly like we did in 2011, trying to justify the Patriots trash defense. They kept it close, but the defense collapsed at the end.

When I say exactly, I mean exactly. Garbage time scoring, pass numbers inflation at the end of those games, all of it.

 

[luuked]

You sure are going to be disappointed about how wrong you are. I don't expect you to have watched all of our games, but you couldn't be any further off about the quality of our D. If you had watched any of our games, you'd see the exact moment in the fourth quarter in nearly every game when the team quit trying, and started trading yards and points for time off of the clock. As a fan, this was nerve racking because it made the games way closer than they were. I can only assume this was to help reduce the grind over the course of the season. Had they kept their foot on the gas throughout the whole game, then they likely finish top 16 in scoring D. You can literally see the exact moment in each game where this happens. I'm hoping we see it again next Sunday!

Please explain to me as a Patriots fan the nuances of a multiscore prevent defense. I have only seen it for many, many years myself.

The difference is that even though the Patriots employ a very similar strategy -- exchanging yards for time when substantially ahead -- our defense still ended up with the number 1 scoring D, while you are talking about maybe having a potential top 16 scoring D if you wouldn't play like that.

 

[FourierSeries]

You sure are going to be disappointed about how wrong you are. I don't expect you to have watched all of our games, but you couldn't be any further off about the quality of our D. If you had watched any of our games, you'd see the exact moment in the fourth quarter in nearly every game when the team quit trying, and started trading yards and points for time off of the clock. As a fan, this was nerve racking because it made the games way closer than they were. I can only assume this was to help reduce the grind over the course of the season. Had they kept their foot on the gas throughout the whole game, then they likely finish top 16 in scoring D. You can literally see the exact moment in each game where this happens. I'm hoping we see it again next Sunday!

Clearly that makes them the second coming of the 85 Bears. We are now all scared. Our offense that just put up 27 points vs the #1 defense (who matches up much better against us than Atlanta's defense does, and whose DC has an intimate knowledge of our team) and 36 points on "the hottest defense over the last 8 weeks," led by the greatest QB in postseason history, a #1 WR who is climbing the postseason record charts, and features a dynamic running game will struggle against this juggernaut defense.

 

[slash83]

Clearly that makes them the second coming of the 85 Bears. We are now all scared. Our offense that just put up 27 points vs the #1 defense (who matches up much better against us than Atlanta's defense does, and whose DC has an intimate knowledge of our team) and 36 points on "the hottest defense over the last 8 weeks," led by the greatest QB in postseason history, a #1 WR who is climbing the postseason record charts, and features a dynamic running game will struggle against this juggernaut defense.

FINISH HIM!!!!

 

[luuked]

FINISH HIM!!!!

I hope @Joker stumbles over this thread soon. Can't wait..

 

[bbobbo]

I was just trying to show how far out of hand the games typically were when the team shut it down. Early in the season, our rookies and second year guys were getting picked on often. They were having to think too much versus reacting. They often played off too far in order to keep the ball in front of them. It didn't help matters much that Neal missed the first few games, Collins was suspended for 4 games, and Campbell was out too due to some nagging injuries. 2/3 of the starting D is comprised of 1st/2nd/3rd year players.

While they did get beat early and often for scores before the bye week, they also played a top half of the league offenses 6 out of 9 games. They played top half offenses 5/7 games to close the season, also. The Pats faced 4 all year. The Falcons' average scoring offense that they played against was 13.88. The Pats' average scoring offense played was 20.94.

Contrast that with the average scoring defense played, NE played an average scoring defense of around 14 while ATL faced an average scoring defense of around 16.

Since some of your fellow fans on here can't seem to get past the 27th scoring D ranking, I can't help but wonder how much of a factor playing trash offenses all year played into your defense's stats. I mean, they only played 4 top half offenses all year (Ari #6, Buf #10 x 2, and Pit #12).

If all we are doing here is assuming things based on regular season stats, then is it safe to assume your defensive stats only look good because they have played bottom of the barrel offenses all year?

There have been a few bumps in the road, but they were all learning moments that helped mold the Falcons' D into what it has been over the last half of the season/postseason. Some of you are going be pretty surprised at how well they play.

you're right, just looking at overall averages can be deceiving. i've dug deeper into the numbers, looking at each team's performance against offenses and defenses sorted into quartiles by scoring rank.

some observations:

• the patriots have not played many very good offenses (only 1 offense ranked 1-8)
  
• the patriots have played against a lot of very bad offenses (7 ranked 25-32)
• the falcons have played against a lot of very good offenses (6 ranked 1-8)
• the falcons have played against very few very bad offenses (2 ranked 25-32)
• HOWEVER, in each offensive quartile rank, the patriots have held offenses to 6-8 fewer points than the falcons have (the exception being the 4th quartile, where the difference is less than a field goal)
• the patriots have faced a few more good defenses (11 in the top half, vs 8 for the falcons)
• against teams in the top two quartile ranks of defense, the patriots have scored only a field goal less than the falcons (25.0 vs 27.8 for ranks 1-8, 27.3 vs 30.0 for ranks 9-16)
• the main difference in points comes against bottom half defenses, against which the falcons offense has scored about a touchdown more than the patriots offense; i note that the the score differential against bottom quartile defenses is 20.3 for the patriots vs. 12.7 for the falcons, so it could be that the patriots were under less pressure to keep scoring than the falcons in those games).

conclusions: the offenses are roughly comparable, with the falcons probably being slightly better (by a field goal or less), but the patriots defense is better than the falcons defense by about a touchdown.