Antonio Brown Mega-Thread

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

This is spot on:

Steelers ruined potential dynasty by blindly supporting Ben Roethlisberger

 

[rochrist]

I truly don't get the Brown mania. There isn't anything on earth that would put him on the Pats. The Steelers could offer Belichick Brown plus a second rounder and he'd say thansk, but no thanks. Brown is not a Patriots player.

 

[Deus Irae]

This is spot on:

Steelers ruined potential dynasty by blindly supporting Ben Roethlisberger

????

That article is horrible, and the title doesn't even match the article.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I truly don't get the Brown mania. There isn't anything on earth that would put him on the Pats. The Steelers could offer Belichick Brown plus a second rounder and he'd say thansk, but no thanks. Brown is not a Patriots player.

I completely agree. I would much rather have Beckham since we have these two major threads now. There are a bunch of super talented WRs if the Patriots are going to trade the farm for someone.

Also, Brown will turn 31 in July and is secretly declining. It's a secret because you look at 1300 yards and 15 TDs and think absolute superstar, but look a little closer. Touchdowns are somewhat random, and there are big signs of decline. I'm sure the Steelers realize this which was a major reason for the tension last year as Smith-Schuster quickly surpassed him. While the narrative was that Brown was double teamed, that really doesn't make sense since he has been double teamed for the last six years as an elite receiver; if anything Smith-Schuster's presence should have made Brown more efficient, but the opposite happened.

Brown's Yards Per Target
9.38 (2014)
9.81 (2015)
8.34 (2016)
9.40 (2017)
7.72 (2018)

Brown's catch percentage
71% (2014),
71% (2015)
69% (2016)
62% (2017)
62% (2018)

Brown is still a really talented receiver, but he is quickly dropping from his historically great levels. For one, he has always been a lot less efficient than people think. His incredibly high amount of targets lead to massive statistical feats. To put it in perspective, Rob Gronkowski typically averages about 9-10 yards per target (elite) and even this past year averaged around 9.5 while hobbled. We think Gronk was in a massive decline, but actually Brown's nosedive in efficiency (yards per target) is significantly more alarming, especially because he was healthy while Gronk was not. Brown's high TD number and total yards mask that he was very inefficient, hovering around average WR levels. He saw 5 more targets in 2018 than in 2017 but finished with almost 250 less lards; that's about 20 yards per game.

 

[gobesmug]

Reading this kind of talk just reinforces my strong belief that NO elite WR is worth the 8 figure money they get.

Mike Even IS one of the 5 best WR's in the league, and what exactly has it gotten TB? Think about all the years Calvin Johnson played in Detroit on losing teams. AJ Green, Julio Jones, Odelle Beckham, etc, etc, and etc. You could create a much longer list of elite WR's who have played on teams that lost more than they won.

That isn't a coincidence, folks. The fact is that WR's are perhaps the most easily replaceable positions in the game simply because there are more of them out there every year. 300lb guys who are athletic, tough, and have the right mental attitude are much harder to find simply because there are less of them.

So YES, I do have a keen sense of the obvious and so should you. Now of course I would agree if Brady was throwing the ball to "elite" WR's it would be a lot easier on him. Just look at 2007. But is it NECESSARY? Just look at the WR's we have had in our superbowl years. In only ONE did we have an elite guy and we lost anyway. I would bet that in the other 8 superbowl games fans would have a hard time remembering who the WR's were. Even Pats fans would have a problem remembering the guy who was opposite Dion Branch in those days, (David Givens, btw) let alone who the #3 or 4 guys were. (and I have no clue off hand).

I'm OK spending "market value" on the OL. DL. CB, and QB, if you have to, but NEVER on a WR....and rarely on anyone else. So no on AB. No on Odelle. No on ESanders, or anyone else who is going to cost you eight figures. Not that these all aren't great receivers and would help any offense, but because it would keep you from allocating that money into areas of greater overall importance to a FOOTBALL team, not a fantasy team.

Love your posts Ken but that argument can be made for every position that isn't QB. JJ Watt has been on more losing seasons than playoff runs. Aaron Donald as well. Joe Thomas was one of the best LT of all time, what did that get him in Cleveland? Zero playoff games. It's a team sport that requires great coaching.

The reason fans want Brady to have that elite WR is because the Patriots were a miracle catch away from having a perfect season after having the most dominating regular season of all time. Moss is always pointed at for that accomplishment but obviously it was a perfect storm of good defense along with innovative coaching on the offense that took the league by storm until defensive coordinators figured it out.

BB did make Moss the highest paid WR after that season, so obviously he felt his impact was worth the cost.

 

[Keyser Söze]

Love listening to that idiot Mazz. OBJ he rips but he wants Brown.

 

[SamusAranX]

The whole Steelers franchise can continue their meltdown and I would be fine with it.

Going into Heinz field last year twice and nailing them to the wall was worth it. Seems to be that their home playoff loss as favorites was the spark that lit their powder keg of drama queens. Have fun with that.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

Aside from his character and personality which already check off the "No" box for me, another reason is that he just doesn't have the physical attributes to command that kind of money

He's basically a spitting image of Brandin Cooks, except he's slower and older

Cooks
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 183 lbs
40 Time: 4.33

Brown
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 181 lbs
40 Time: 4.56


So a lot of the same reasons I didn't want Cooks at big money, are the same reasons I wouldn't want Brown at big money. Cooks is also 7 years younger than Brown

 

[rochrist]

Love your posts Ken but that argument can be made for every position that isn't QB. JJ Watt has been on more losing seasons than playoff runs. Aaron Donald as well. Joe Thomas was one of the best LT of all time, what did that get him in Cleveland? Zero playoff games. It's a team sport that requires great coaching.

The reason fans want Brady to have that elite WR is because the Patriots were a miracle catch away from having a perfect season after having the most dominating regular season of all time. Moss is always pointed at for that accomplishment but obviously it was a perfect storm of good defense along with innovative coaching on the offense that took the league by storm until defensive coordinators figured it out.

BB did make Moss the highest paid WR after that season, so obviously he felt his impact was worth the cost.

But they DIDN'T win that year. They've won SIX times without the shiny hood ornament.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

The whole Steelers franchise can contribute their meltdown and I would be fine with it.

Going into Heinz field last year twice and nailing them to the wall was worth it. Seems to be that their home playoff loss as favorites was the spark that lit their powder keg of drama queens. Have fun with that.

That had to be quite satisfying . Multiple of their players tweting about the ‘rematch’ with us before the game is even played and you guys beat them on their turf. Classic

 

[gobesmug]

But they DIDN'T win that year. They've won SIX times without the shiny hood ornament.

That wasn't the point. The point is there are plenty of HOF players from every position that never win a Superbowl or miss the playoffs almost every year. Jason Taylor OLB, JJ Watt DE, Brian Urlacher MLB, Champ Bailey CB, Sean Taylor SS, Aaron Donald DT, Dan Marino QB, and the examples go on and on for positions other than WR were greatness at one spot didn't correlate with winning a Superbowl or even staying competitive every year.

 

[gobesmug]

Having a difference maker at any position is huge. Having a CB that can shutdown almost any WR is huge for a defense just a like a WR that needs to be doubled every play is huge for the offense. I don't think OBJ is worth his contract, but that doesn't mean having an elite WR wouldn't help this team.

 

[rochrist]

It's been pretty well demonstrated statistically that shiny hood ornaments don't deliver any sort of decent ROI, and if there's anything the Pats have taught us, it ought to be that they don't NEED one to win it all.. Again and again and again.

 

[Deus Irae]

It's been pretty well demonstrated statistically that shiny hood ornaments don't deliver any sort of decent ROI, and if there's anything the Pats have taught us, it ought to be that they don't NEED one to win it all.. Again and again and again.

What the Patriots have taught is is what the 49ers taught us:

You can win a lot of games when you've got an elite QB/HC tandem, especially when your owner doesn't screw things up.


The rest is just a bunch of idiots trying to read tea leaves. WRs help win. RBs help win. LBs help win. CBs help win. All the positions help win, and having elite talent at just about every single position in the game is a huge advantage over opponents. And that's what history has taught us.

 

[Deus Irae]

zOMG! Drama!

Antonio Brown may have at least three NFL teams who have emerged as strong suitors in a trade, but Pittsburgh Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert said “interest has grown” and the Steelers “haven’t eliminated anybody” regardless of division or conference.

Steelers GM won't rule out trading Antonio Brown to Patriots

Insert

type posts below:

 

[Todd Bradley]

We’re really discussing trading for a malcontent diva with a gigantic cap hit from one of the main rivals in the AFC who would be in essence conceding another conference title to New England?

File this one under the “no chance in hell” category.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

What the Patriots have taught is is what the 49ers taught us:

You can win a lot of games when you've got an elite QB/HC tandem, especially when your owner doesn't screw things up.

Just saw this post, thought it was funny that this statement only proved good for 18 hours.

(Not that I’m saying anything *should* happen to Kraft over this, but rather that the Patriots have a target on their backs so you never know how stupidly Goodell and the other owners will react.)

 

[gobesmug]

I'm OK spending "market value" on the OL. DL. CB, and QB, if you have to, but NEVER on a WR....and rarely on anyone else. So no on AB. No on Odelle. No on ESanders, or anyone else who is going to cost you eight figures. Not that these all aren't great receivers and would help any offense, but because it would keep you from allocating that money into areas of greater overall importance to a FOOTBALL team, not a fantasy team.

I agree with you in principle but it depends on circumstances. For the Patriots, spending 17mil a year on a WR when you are already paying a lot for your QB and top CB doesn't work. But for a team that has stud young defenders and a QB on a rookie deal, paying top money for an elite WR doesn't hurt.

Look at Atlanta, they had a talented team with a couple good rookie classes and could afford Julio Jones. They lost because of poor 4th qtr coaching, not because they paid too much for Julio.

I agree the pats don't and shouldn't spend 17+ mil a year on a WR but that doesn't mean it hasn't helped other teams reach the Superbowl.

 

[patsfanincleveland]

Reading this kind of talk just reinforces my strong belief that NO elite WR is worth the 8 figure money they get.

Mike Even IS one of the 5 best WR's in the league, and what exactly has it gotten TB? Think about all the years Calvin Johnson played in Detroit on losing teams. AJ Green, Julio Jones, Odelle Beckham, etc, etc, and etc. You could create a much longer list of elite WR's who have played on teams that lost more than they won.

That isn't a coincidence, folks. The fact is that WR's are perhaps the most easily replaceable positions in the game simply because there are more of them out there every year. 300lb guys who are athletic, tough, and have the right mental attitude are much harder to find simply because there are less of them.

So YES, I do have a keen sense of the obvious and so should you. Now of course I would agree if Brady was throwing the ball to "elite" WR's it would be a lot easier on him. Just look at 2007. But is it NECESSARY? Just look at the WR's we have had in our superbowl years. In only ONE did we have an elite guy and we lost anyway. I would bet that in the other 8 superbowl games fans would have a hard time remembering who the WR's were. Even Pats fans would have a problem remembering the guy who was opposite Dion Branch in those days, (David Givens, btw) let alone who the #3 or 4 guys were. (and I have no clue off hand).

I'm OK spending "market value" on the OL. DL. CB, and QB, if you have to, but NEVER on a WR....and rarely on anyone else. So no on AB. No on Odelle. No on ESanders, or anyone else who is going to cost you eight figures. Not that these all aren't great receivers and would help any offense, but because it would keep you from allocating that money into areas of greater overall importance to a FOOTBALL team, not a fantasy team.

Part of the problem with wide receivers is they are judged on their stats as the overriding avenue of judgement. QB's/ OL and defense gets judged if the units are effective.

AB has stats because they throw to him all the time. In reality, the Steelers offense through years has:

Not consistently scored
Turned the ball over
Bad in situational football

The NFL is not lacking talent......it lacks coaching talent. Teams with coaching talent don't need diva receivers yet their offense units are top notch.

 

[VJCPatriot]

If the Pats were to trade for AB, I'd say a 3rd round pick would be fair compensation seeing that he is intent on shooting his way out of town.

As far as his new contract I'd offer a 16m dollar signing bonus with an extra year added on and restructure the contract to minimize the 2019 cap impact. That way you'd spread out the bonus money over 4 years.

I expect he will provide top level performance over at least 2 years of the contract. Then if you cut him on year 3, you only eat 8m of the bonus money cap hit.

To me this seems reasonable to get an elite player who could have a Randy Moss-like impact on the offense. For those 2 years, the Pats championship window would be wide open. I say maximize Brady's final elite seasons and win at least 1 or 2 more rings with him and AB/Edelman at receiver.