And, We Have Our Offense

[Salsalife]

Love the thread but we have to address the elephant in the room, we can't stop the run or the pass. Can this Mac Jones offense score enough points to compensate for our unchanged defense. Sad year i see.

 

[WinstonSmith]

Love the thread but we have to address the elephant in the room, we can't stop the run or the pass. Can this Mac Jones offense score enough points to compensate for our unchanged defense. Sad year i see.

Unchanged?? The folks getting the majority of the snaps at CB and LB will be vastly different than last year. It's possible for both units to be better than last year.

The Pats most likely won't be as good at CB1 but should/could be deeper at CB especially with Jones on IR last year.

The LBs will be much faster and athletic as a unit.

Too soon to declare it a success or failure.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Unchanged?? The folks getting the majority of the snaps at CB and LB will be vastly different than last year. It's possible for both units to be better than last year.

The Pats most likely won't be as good at CB1 but should/could be deeper at CB especially with Jones on IR last year.

The LBs will be much faster and athletic as a unit.

Too soon to declare it a success or failure.

Correct, people seem to be forgetting that myles bryant was our #3 cb last year. This obviously crushed us in the buffalo games (playoff game even worse without mills). Now we may have 5 or 6 guys ahead of bryant and hopefully hes not on the final 53. Losing jcj hurts but this year itll be much harder to find a weakness for qbs. Lb is stilll up in the air imo but definitely got faster at least.

 

[Salsalife]

Unchanged?? The folks getting the majority of the snaps at CB and LB will be vastly different than last year. It's possible for both units to be better than last year.

The Pats most likely won't be as good at CB1 but should/could be deeper at CB especially with Jones on IR last year.

The LBs will be much faster and athletic as a unit.

Too soon to declare it a success or failure.

Unchanged?? The folks getting the majority of the snaps at CB and LB will be vastly different than last year. It's possible for both units to be better than last year.

The Pats most likely won't be as good at CB1 but should/could be deeper at CB especially with Jones on IR last year.

The LBs will be much faster and athletic as a unit.

Too soon to declare it a success or failure.

Oh really. Let's refresh your last memory shall we; this is what i remember.

And I quote "a Buffalo barrage". Buffalo's O-line Dominated the Patriots D-line, full stop. Buffalo rushed for 174 yards (6.0 per carry) and passed for 308 (12.6 per catch). Lots of lanes, lots of time.
Lawrence Guy
Deatrich Wise
Christian Barrmore
Davon Godchaux

 

[WinstonSmith]

Oh really. Let's refresh your last memory shall we; this is what i remember.

And I quote "a Buffalo barrage". Buffalo's O-line Dominated the Patriots D-line, full stop. Buffalo rushed for 174 yards (6.0 per carry) and passed for 308 (12.6 per catch). Lots of lanes, lots of time.
Lawrence Guy
Deatrich Wise
Christian Barrmore
Davon Godchaux

The Bills kicked the Patriots’ asses and nothing will change that, but when trying to forecast future performance it’s silly to focus too much on one game whether it’s good or bad.

If you insist on using one game to frame your agenda let’s refresh your memory of some of the details of the game and why one game shouldn’t be used to predict future results:

Pats final injury report:

QUESTIONABLE
C David Andrews, Shoulder (LP)
DL Christian Barmore, Knee (LP)
LB Jamie Collins, Ankle (LP)
DB Cody Davis, Wrist (LP)
DB Kyle Dugger, Hand (LP)
K Nick Folk, Left Knee (LP)
DL Lawrence Guy, Shoulder (LP)
RB Damien Harris, Hamstring (LP)
LB Dont'a Hightower, Knee (LP)
LB Brandon King, Toe (LP)
WR Jakobi Meyers, Thigh (LP)
S Adrian Phillips, Knee (LP)
T Isaiah Wynn, Hip/Ankle (DNP)

Bills final injury report:
No one listed

Patriots COVID reserve list:
CB Wade
CB Mills

The covis list combined with the injuries to Dugger, Phillips, and Davis led to scary snap counts of Pats’ DB’s covering healthy Bills’ receiversve, which included Joejuan Williams, Myles Bryant, Justin Bethel and elevations D’Angelo Ross and De’Vante Bausby.

Barrmore play was obviously affected by his injured knee and Bently was injured after 18 snaps. Collins played on a bad ankle, while Hightower with his knee was a shell of his former self.

I’m not saying that the Bills would have lost if not for the Patriots injuries, but it would have been a lot closer if the injury report was reversed and the Pats were the team that was completely healthy. This lobsided Bills' victory does not invalidate the facts that the Patriots defense had the second lowest points against for the season and the 4th rated defensive DVOA.

And I’ll respond to the easy rebuttal, “It wasn’t just one game and including the playoff loss, they lost 4 out of their last 5 games”: This is true, and the small sample size still applies, but the Patriots seem to be at least trying to address most of the issues (besides chance) that influenced their late season swoon: 1. Slow and ineffective linebackers. 2. CB depth. 3. Predictable offense didn’t adapt and expand enough as the season went on.

If Bill still isn’t happy with the DL, CB or LB groups then I would expect that he would add a couple of FA’s or bring someone in via a trade. They have the needed future draft capital and potential cap space to make it happen.

So yes it’s too soon to judge the defense until we see how the new parts work and what new parts are added…not exactly a controversial take.

 

[Kasmir]

The Bills kicked the Patriots’ asses and nothing will change that, but when trying to forecast future performance it’s silly to focus too much on one game whether it’s good or bad.

If you insist on using one game to frame your agenda let’s refresh your memory of some of the details of the game and why one game shouldn’t be used to predict future results:

Pats final injury report:

QUESTIONABLE
C David Andrews, Shoulder (LP)
DL Christian Barmore, Knee (LP)
LB Jamie Collins, Ankle (LP)
DB Cody Davis, Wrist (LP)
DB Kyle Dugger, Hand (LP)
K Nick Folk, Left Knee (LP)
DL Lawrence Guy, Shoulder (LP)
RB Damien Harris, Hamstring (LP)
LB Dont'a Hightower, Knee (LP)
LB Brandon King, Toe (LP)
WR Jakobi Meyers, Thigh (LP)
S Adrian Phillips, Knee (LP)
T Isaiah Wynn, Hip/Ankle (DNP)

Bills final injury report:
No one listed

Patriots COVID reserve list:
CB Wade
CB Mills

The covis list combined with the injuries to Dugger, Phillips, and Davis led to scary snap counts of Pats’ DB’s covering healthy Bills’ receiversve, which included Joejuan Williams, Myles Bryant, Justin Bethel and elevations D’Angelo Ross and De’Vante Bausby.

Barrmore play was obviously affected by his injured knee and Bently was injured after 18 snaps. Collins played on a bad ankle, while Hightower with his knee was a shell of his former self.

I’m not saying that the Bills would have lost if not for the Patriots injuries, but it would have been a lot closer if the injury report was reversed and the Pats were the team that was completely healthy. This lobsided Bills' victory does not invalidate the facts that the Patriots defense had the second lowest points against for the season and the 4th rated defensive DVOA.

And I’ll respond to the easy rebuttal, “It wasn’t just one game and including the playoff loss, they lost 4 out of their last 5 games”: This is true, and the small sample size still applies, but the Patriots seem to be at least trying to address most of the issues (besides chance) that influenced their late season swoon: 1. Slow and ineffective linebackers. 2. CB depth. 3. Predictable offense didn’t adapt and expand enough as the season went on.

If Bill still isn’t happy with the DL, CB or LB groups then I would expect that he would add a couple of FA’s or bring someone in via a trade. They have future draft capital and potential cap space to make it happen.

So yes it’s too soon to judge the defense until we see how the new parts work and what new parts are added…not exactly a controversial take.

Wow that really explains a lot about the mismatch: the Bills with no injuries the Pats with half the starters injured or out. Folks forget that going into December the Pats were the super bowl favorite with some (Football Outsiders for instance). Team collapsed with injuries and ran into a Buffalo buzz saw.

Different team this year of course, but you gotta love how most everyone is forecasting a down season for Mac while making excuses for the four QB's picked above him. We'll see.

 

[Pats2000]

The Stoppable force vs the Movable object...

Sounds like a movie DC wants to make.

 

[venecol]

The Bills kicked the Patriots’ asses and nothing will change that, but when trying to forecast future performance it’s silly to focus too much on one game whether it’s good or bad.

If you insist on using one game to frame your agenda let’s refresh your memory of some of the details of the game and why one game shouldn’t be used to predict future results:

Pats final injury report:

QUESTIONABLE
C David Andrews, Shoulder (LP)
DL Christian Barmore, Knee (LP)
LB Jamie Collins, Ankle (LP)
DB Cody Davis, Wrist (LP)
DB Kyle Dugger, Hand (LP)
K Nick Folk, Left Knee (LP)
DL Lawrence Guy, Shoulder (LP)
RB Damien Harris, Hamstring (LP)
LB Dont'a Hightower, Knee (LP)
LB Brandon King, Toe (LP)
WR Jakobi Meyers, Thigh (LP)
S Adrian Phillips, Knee (LP)
T Isaiah Wynn, Hip/Ankle (DNP)

Bills final injury report:
No one listed

Patriots COVID reserve list:
CB Wade
CB Mills

The covis list combined with the injuries to Dugger, Phillips, and Davis led to scary snap counts of Pats’ DB’s covering healthy Bills’ receiversve, which included Joejuan Williams, Myles Bryant, Justin Bethel and elevations D’Angelo Ross and De’Vante Bausby.

Barrmore play was obviously affected by his injured knee and Bently was injured after 18 snaps. Collins played on a bad ankle, while Hightower with his knee was a shell of his former self.

I’m not saying that the Bills would have lost if not for the Patriots injuries, but it would have been a lot closer if the injury report was reversed and the Pats were the team that was completely healthy. This lobsided Bills' victory does not invalidate the facts that the Patriots defense had the second lowest points against for the season and the 4th rated defensive DVOA.

And I’ll respond to the easy rebuttal, “It wasn’t just one game and including the playoff loss, they lost 4 out of their last 5 games”: This is true, and the small sample size still applies, but the Patriots seem to be at least trying to address most of the issues (besides chance) that influenced their late season swoon: 1. Slow and ineffective linebackers. 2. CB depth. 3. Predictable offense didn’t adapt and expand enough as the season went on.

If Bill still isn’t happy with the DL, CB or LB groups then I would expect that he would add a couple of FA’s or bring someone in via a trade. They have the needed future draft capital and potential cap space to make it happen.

So yes it’s too soon to judge the defense until we see how the new parts work and what new parts are added…not exactly a controversial take.

Aside from the WC game (174 rushing yds), the Pats D in the last 6 games allowed:

1. MIA 195 rushing yds
2. BUF 114 rushing yds
3. IND 226 rushing yds
4. TEN 270 rushing yds (w/o Henry)

Yet, they're putting out the exact same DL. I would've put money on them drafting a DL player in the early rounds. Thankfully, I'm not much of a gambler (unless it's @Dingleberry bucks).

 

[WinstonSmith]

Aside from the WC game (174 rushing yds), the Pats D in the last 6 games allowed:

1. MIA 195 rushing yds
2. BUF 114 rushing yds
3. IND 226 rushing yds
4. TEN 270 rushing yds (w/o Henry)

Yet, they're putting out the exact same DL. I would've put money on them drafting a DL player in the early rounds. Thankfully, I'm not much of a gambler (unless it's @Dingleberry bucks).

Many elements influence total rushing yards against besides the DL including LB, S and CB play, game plan, and quality of opponents.

That being said, there is room for improvement. Barmore should build off of his rookie year, and the Pats drafted Roberts and signed Ray as an UDFA. If the Pats don’t strike gold with either, or if they are developmental projects that can’t help right away, I expect them to sign or trade for an experienced player, like Flowers.

 

[PowerRunRevival]

Love the thread but we have to address the elephant in the room, we can't stop the run or the pass. Can this Mac Jones offense score enough points to compensate for our unchanged defense. Sad year i see.

The offense can help the defense though with complimentary football. It doesn't always have to be by putting up a ton of points, if the Pats can string long drives together and control time of possession the offense can make up for defensive issues. The run game and short passing game on offense is going to be incredibly important in helping the defense. I expect the running game to be one of the best in the league, and Mac will only improve in the short passing game.

Unfortunately, I think the Pats might be daring teams to run against them all season with a focus on stopping the pass. With how often teams in the current NFL throw the ball, it might be the smart strategy. Also, in terms of the defense I expect it to improve as the season goes along with young players replacing older players at LB, and CB. Last season it seems like the defense lost it's legs at the end of the year, I don't expect that to happen this year, but they could have issues to start the year while young players get more reps and learn.

 

[Salsalife]

The offense can help the defense though with complimentary football. It doesn't always have to be by putting up a ton of points, if the Pats can string long drives together and control time of possession the offense can make up for defensive issues. The run game and short passing game on offense is going to be incredibly important in helping the defense. I expect the running game to be one of the best in the league, and Mac will only improve in the short passing game.

Unfortunately, I think the Pats might be daring teams to run against them all season with a focus on stopping the pass. With how often teams in the current NFL throw the ball, it might be the smart strategy. Also, in terms of the defense I expect it to improve as the season goes along with young players replacing older players at LB, and CB. Last season it seems like the defense lost it's legs at the end of the year, I don't expect that to happen this year, but they could have issues to start the year while young players get more reps

Aside from the WC game (174 rushing yds), the Pats D in the last 6 games allowed:

1. MIA 195 rushing yds
2. BUF 114 rushing yds
3. IND 226 rushing yds
4. TEN 270 rushing yds (w/o Henry)

Yet, they're putting out the exact same DL. I would've put money on them drafting a DL player in the early rounds. Thankfully, I'm not much of a gambler (unless it's @Dingleberry bucks).

OUCH!!

 

[bormio]

The article about Kevin Harris being a gem is interesting. Had a huge freshman year at South Carolina, then injuries blunted his career, but a huge bowl game this year. The injury thing may have been a godsend. Marcus Lattimore lost a NFL career because of carrying 30+ times a game. Sony Michel was used up at Georgia, Todd Gurley had a lot of college mileage. SEC backs often have had the equivalent of a couple of NFL seasons in college. The same fate awaited Harris and then didn’t happen. Think Duce Staley - middling college career at South Carolina, long and productive NFL career.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Aside from the WC game (174 rushing yds), the Pats D in the last 6 games allowed:

1. MIA 195 rushing yds
2. BUF 114 rushing yds
3. IND 226 rushing yds
4. TEN 270 rushing yds (w/o Henry)

Yet, they're putting out the exact same DL. I would've put money on them drafting a DL player in the early rounds. Thankfully, I'm not much of a gambler (unless it's @Dingleberry bucks).

I agree. The DL is basically unchanged - even if we sign Flowers. The LB group looks to be almost all new so maybe that helps a lot. Hard to understand why there is not a new big fatty to plug the run, but we decided to draft and trade for offense. Makes me think that the plan is 2023, let Godchaux and Guy go and fill in with higher priced, higher ceiling guys. Plus some draft picks after the 1st round pick is OT. With the offense carrying over from 2022, we should be in great shape. Let's hope Roberts and Ray are golden nuggets, but unlikely, most likely solid JAGs.

 

[mgteich]

Many elements influence total rushing yards against besides the DL including LB, S and CB play, game plan, and quality of opponents.

That being said, there is room for improvement. Barmore should build off of his rookie year, and the Pats drafted Roberts and signed Ray as an UDFA. If the Pats don’t strike gold with either, or if they are developmental projects that can’t help right away, I expect them to sign or trade for an experienced player, like Flowers.

1) I expect an addition between now and the trading deadline. That being said, there were improvements made in our run defense. I think that the contributions from the LB's will be more, and perhaps even from the safeties.

2) Running yards mean exactly nothing if they don't translate to points. An obvious example is the TEN game. We won that game. The key is keeping MIA, BUF and IND to fewer points, not fewer yards running the ball.

3) I am reasonably certain that Belichick has more faith in Guy and Wise than you do. He likely even has hopes that one of the backups will step up (Ekuale or Davis or Cowart). I still think that we need to add a biggie. HOWEVER, I've wanted one more than Belichick almost every year.

 

[Kasmir]

The offense can help the defense though with complimentary football. It doesn't always have to be by putting up a ton of points, if the Pats can string long drives together and control time of possession the offense can make up for defensive issues. The run game and short passing game on offense is going to be incredibly important in helping the defense. I expect the running game to be one of the best in the league, and Mac will only improve in the short passing game.

Unfortunately, I think the Pats might be daring teams to run against them all season with a focus on stopping the pass. With how often teams in the current NFL throw the ball, it might be the smart strategy. Also, in terms of the defense I expect it to improve as the season goes along with young players replacing older players at LB, and CB. Last season it seems like the defense lost it's legs at the end of the year, I don't expect that to happen this year, but they could have issues to start the year while young players get more reps and learn.

By the end of the year, the defense was crippled by injuries and ran into a healthy Buffalo playing their best football.

But over the course of the year the defense was actually quite good, the 3rd best defense by points allowed and the 4th best by weighted DVOA (3rd vs the pass and 10th vs the run).

But seems like all folks can remember is how it ended.

Belichick is clearly deliberately retooling the defense this year, and he has a pretty good defensive track record.

Panicking now is quite premature.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I still think that we need to add a biggie. HOWEVER, I've wanted one more than Belichick almost every year.

Me too. Maybe we will draft one next year? But OT seems like the 1st round 2023 pick, so maybe 2nd or 3rd round?

Hope springs eternal. Maybe BB will listen to us some day if we keep waiting. Haha.

 

[Kasmir]

Me too. Maybe we will draft one next year? But OT seems like the 1st round 2023 pick, so maybe 2nd or 3rd round?

Hope springs eternal. Maybe BB will listen to us some day if we keep waiting. Haha.

How many more super bowls would Belichick have won if he listened to this board?

 

[NormZauchin]

How many more super bowls would Belichick have won if he listened to this board?

Your question should be a separate thread.

 

[Kasmir]

Your question should be a separate thread.

Please no! I don't doubt that it's been exhaustively discussed in the Tompa Bay sub forum, which I've never visited and never will. But I'm sure the answer is that BB cost TB at least 14 super bowls

 

[sb1]

Patriots apparently changing their entire offensive system in Year 1 after Josh McDaniels

With the long-time coordinator in Las Vegas, New England is using "new terminology, new words."

www.patspulpit.com

This is either going to work really well and catch the league by surprise as it did with the 2019 Ravens - or things will get ugly. I say it will work really well.