Re: An NY Jets fan's opinion (backed by stats) telling why the Jets will prevail Dec.
Since you took the time to put this together, and while I'm sure many of my colleagues here have probably already obliterated your points of view, I thought I'd add my 2 cents. It only seemed fair....and polite
=eifmp;2364069]First some opinions about differences between week 2 and now
I'm going to disagree with a lot of what you posted, but it should be noted that, by and large it was a good effort, and a fair presentation. That being said......
A) Santonio Holmes as a receiving threat: How will the Patriots deal with him?
Holmes will get his share of catches. Why should he be different from EVERY other WR in the league we've faced. But from the Jet games I've watched, his greatest damage comes AFTER the catch. Say what you want about this defense, but by and large its a good tackling defense, especially in the backfield. The key in this game is to make sure that the vast bulk of Holmes' yards come through the air....not after.
B) A 100% Darrelle Revis: Who will he cover and can he be as effective as he has been recently? Revis has held Greg Jennings, Andre Johnson, Calvin "Megatron" Johnson, and Terrell Owens to 61 yards total. Will Tom Brady be afraid to throw in his direction?
I think he's been less than shut down this year, I can't get that image out of my head of Kevin Walter beating him by 2 yds...only to drop the perfect pass. That being said, who ever he covers is likely in for a long day. I think it will be Branch. However there WILL be a couple of plays where he IS going to get open. It just a matter of will Brady be able to get him the ball
C)Calvin Pace as a pass rusher/run stoper: He missed the first 4 games of the season. How will his presence in this game help with the pass rush/run game?
Pace is a good player, but he hasn't been the IMPACT player player you paid all that money for (few high priced FAs are). The Jets D was good without him.
D) O-Line improvement: Jets had a 2nd year player starting in only his second game at RG (Matt Slauson). The Patriots had 3 sacks that game. That has only happened 1 other time this season (Hou). Part of that is Mark Sanchez's ability to escape the rush and still make plays. Will a team that's currently 21's in sacks be able to get constant pressure on the QB? Will they be able to contain Sanchez once/if he escapes the pocket?
Slauson isn't playing great...OR poorly. The Pats will likely have the same luck sacking Sanchez as the Jets will have sacking Brady....very little. Both teams are weak in this area. My guess will be just one or 2 per team, and THEN mostly because of good coverage.
IMHO, Sanchez becomes more dangerous OUTSIDE the pocket. I see the Pats trying to keep him in the pocket, instead of all our rushes from the outside and try to make him feel the pressure up the middle..
1) Sumthin's gotta give: Either Tom Brady's 25 straight (regular season) home wins will cease or the Jets current 8 straight (regular season) road winning streak cease. Jets are a better road team than home team anyway, winning 11 of the last 15 games on the road including the playoffs.
Being at home is a huge advantage. THIS time its the Pats with the advantage. It makes it easier to play offense. Its easier to substitute. Conversely its harder for the visiting team. The Jets have not played anyone on the road THIS year the caliber of the Pats. It will be a hard to overcome. Home field is a great equalizer.
2) Danny's impact: Will Danny Woodhead and the Patriot running game have an impact in the game vs the Jets? The stats say 'no' he would not. The Jets are the NFL's 4th best rush defense: The Patriots have faced two teams ranked higher: The Chargers (3rd) and the Steelers (1st). They both held the Patriots rushing attack under 100+ yards.
The Jets better respect the Pats rushing attack. And while no Pats individual rushed for 100 yds against Pittsburgh the cumulative effort of all the Pats RBs was just over that 100 yd mark. Woodhead did have little impact in the running game against the Steelers and SD, but he did average 10 ypc against both teams (5). He's a match up problem for the Jets, but based to these stats, he shouldn't be a big rush threat. BJGE didn't do much in the SD game, but averaged 4.8ypc vs the Steelers. And now that Mankins has had a few games under his belt, the Pats running game has been getting progressively better.
The question you may want to ask is what do the Pats have to fear from the Jets RBs? - LT started out like a house on fire, but in the last 6 games has been very pedestrian, and so has inconsistent Greene, who has been a fumble waiting to happen. If you ask me, I'm more worried about Brad Smith having an impact on the game, than either of them.
3) Sumthin's gotta give part two: Tom Brady is on Fire. The Jets are 12th in fewest passing YPG (210.6), allow the 4th worst QB rating (75.8), and is tops in the league in lowest completion percentage allowed by opposing QB's (50.3). They held Tom Brady to his 2nd lowest completion percentage this season (55.6), and his 2nd lowest QBR 72.5. Tom Brady has faced 4 teams this season that has allowed fewer passing yardage per game than the Jets. San Diego, Indy, Miami, Baltimore. In those 4 games vs those upper echelon passing defenses Tom has been sacked 11 of his 15 times this season and has thrown for under 200 yards passing in 3 of those games (SD, Miami, Indy).
This is a lot different offense than the one you saw in week 2, and clearly much better. Just remember how the Jets completely controlled Brady in game one last season, and how differently the 2nd round turned out.
Its taken a while for this offense's current incarnation to get in synch. Welker is healthier, the rookie TEs now have 11 games under their belts. Woodhead is now an intergral part of the offense. And Brady is controlling it all. The Stat you really want to focus on is Brady has had just 3 picks this season (the 4th was a hail mary at the end of a half) and 23 TDs. AND ZERO turnovers in the last several games.
4) therefore forcing them to abandon the run. While the rushing attack was able to get the better of the Minnesota and keep Adrian Peterson off the field. In the two games the Patriots lost they were out gained on the ground by 75 (NYJ) and 136 (Cle). Not only did they keep Tom Brady off the field, they eliminated any running threat and thereby putting more pressure on Tom Brady to be flawless.
Again a lot of the Jets rushing success came early in the year. Now you have one guy who is seriously slipping, and another who you can't trust to hold on to the ball. The Jets may win this game, but it won't be because they ran all over the Pats.
5) We all know this will be the best rushing offense the Pats will have faced all season. But what else is there? Well...the Jets avg 40.1 net yards punting (5th in the league) and are tied for the league lead with 26 punts killed inside the 20. They are 2nd in the league in kick return average at 26.9. All this adds up to winning the battle of field position. They are 9th in the league with 37 passing plays of 20+ yards and 6th in the league with 9 passing plays of 40+ yards, both ranking are higher than New England's, despite all the Mark Sanchez naysayers out there. The Jets have only allowed 1 300+ passing game all season (Chad Henne) and that was without Darrelle Revis.
The Pats have been very good on special teams, though losing Gotskowski has hurt our KO coverage. I think the Jets have more to worry about when they have to line up for a FG, than the fact that their punting net is slightly higher than the Pats.
Quite frankly...The Patriots have not faced a team this season who is above average with regards to running the ball & defending the run & defending the pass & explosive pass plays with the punting/kicking to win the field position battle all rolled into one. Not to mention the Jets have the 4th best starting field position in the NFL. This is the best combination of offense, defense and special teams in the NFL. This is why I think the Jets will win by a touchdown next Monday.
Well if you are going to rely on stats and rankings so much. How about the fact that your QB is near the bottom in most QB stats. That while he started out like a rocket, he has had 8 picks to go with his 8 TDs over the last 6 games. That one of Brady's WORST performances of the year (that 55.6% one that you mention earlier ) is higher than what Sanchez averages.for the year. Be careful about stats. They often lie.
So you are coming into this game vs a white hot offense, with an offense of your own that is starting to sputter...against lower caliber competition. You better hope that the Pats defense lives up to its lowly reputation.
I predict Jets 27 - Patriots 20.
Your guess is as good as mine....and I don't have one. OK I guess I should..... 24-17 Pats.
People want to Jump on the San Diego Chargers bandwagon...but of their 5 losses 3 of them were to teams under .500. Not me sir. Would rather barely win vs sub .500 teams than lose to them
Well if that rationalization makes you feel better about the fact the Jets have had only ONE quality win....and that was over 2 months ago....so be it. The Pats have had to beat the iron all season (3-1) and after they beat the Jets they will have to CONTINUE to do so, with games against the Bears and Packers, plus ending the season with 2 tough divisional games against the Bills and Dolphins. Teams that the Pats beat, but its NEVER easy.
