Adam Vinatieri, Stephen Gostkowski, and "clutchness"

[ctpatsfan77]

Just a data point. One of the things that has been said about Gostkowski is his relative lack of "clutchness" and "signature kicks" (as a result of the Patriots offense going into overdrive).

But if you look at kicks in the fourth quarter and OT, in one-score games (Pats leading or trailing by 8 or less):

• Vinatieri, career: 79/92, or 85.9%
• Vinatieri, with NE: 38/46, or 82.6%
• Vinatieri, with Brady as starter: 25/27, or 92.6%
• Gostkowski: 44/46, or 95.7%

 

[TB_Helmet]

Good stats. Ghost just seems to miss them earlier in games and then you're thinking about it for the next two and a half quarters.

Remember this one? ****ing money:

 

[Redstorm]

People still remember Gostkowski misses from early in big games, not the 4th quarter

They are both great kickers historically. But the 2001 snow field goal was simply legendary

 

[RobertWeathers]

People still remember Gostkowski misses from early in big games, not the 4th quarter

They are both great kickers historically. But the 2001 snow field goal was simply legendary

Not only that but AV nailed 2 SB GW kicks.

Nobody remembers the 2 misses in SB 38 or the other playoff misses.

Hes reached NFL "Cantonization"

 

[patfanken]

Not only that but AV nailed 2 SB GW kicks.

Nobody remembers the 2 misses in SB 38 or the other playoff misses.

Hes reached NFL "Cantonization"

the job of the FG kicker is pretty much a zero sum game. They only remember the misses.

Gotskowski has been one the best draft picks of the BB era. When you think on it, between Adam and Steve we've had almost 20 years of elite FG kicking. Like so many things about this run, we've come to take it for granted.

 

[Deus Irae]

Kicking in the playoffs:

Vinatieri: 56-69 (81.2%)
Gostkowski: 39-44 (88.6%)

Where people have some kind of point is in the XP area, though even there it's misleading. Gost has missed 4 (88-92 for 95.7% versus Vinatieri at 7071 for 98.6%), but all of Gost's misses have been post 2014 rules changes, and that's when Viniatieri's miss came, as well.

Post 2014 playoff XP:

Viniatieri: 4-5 (80%)
Gostkowski: 31-35 (88.6%)

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Post 2014 playoff XP:

Viniatieri: 4-5 (80%)
Gostkowski: 31-35 (88.6%)

And neither is a statistically significant number of misses.

 

[ALP]

do those number include both reg and post season?

 

[oldrover]

Hey, they're both great kickers. But, and this is not a knock on SG...

...few kickers can claim this kind of moment.

 

[signbabybrady]

Extremely useful information.
Would it be easy for you to make a distinction between kicks in the same situation but split between when we are trailing or tied vs have the lead.

Fair or unfair and right or wrong I think the perception is that Vinatieri probably hit more to break a tie or give us the lead. Perception fully formed based on 4 kicks two snow kicks and two SB winners.

 

[billdog3484]

Good stats. Ghost just seems to miss them earlier in games and then you're thinking about it for the next two and a half quarters.

Remember this one? ****ing money:

that kick was awesome

 

[everlong]

It's when SG has missed. Arizona a FG as long as the old XP lost the game. Denver 2015 AFFCG he hits that XP and that game would have gone to OT. 2016 SB just when they start a comeback he missed an XP which was the lowest point of that game for me. He was lucky to get bailed out. 2017 SB missed FG and XP. 2018 SB missed a FG.

All of these were at important parts of the game.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

It's when SG has missed. Arizona a FG as long as the old XP lost the game. Denver 2015 AFFCG he hits that XP and that game would have gone to OT. 2016 SB just when they start a comeback he missed an XP which was the lowest point of that game for me. He was lucky to get bailed out. 2017 SB missed FG and XP. 2018 SB missed a FG.

All of these were at important parts of the game.

And yet, despite all of this, Belichick has not seen fit to bring in any meaningful competition for Gostkowski since his rookie season.

 

[Deus Irae]

It's when SG has missed. Arizona a FG as long as the old XP lost the game. Denver 2015 AFFCG he hits that XP and that game would have gone to OT. 2016 SB just when they start a comeback he missed an XP which was the lowest point of that game for me. He was lucky to get bailed out. 2017 SB missed FG and XP. 2018 SB missed a FG.

All of these were at important parts of the game.

AFC Championship - New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers - January 27th, 2002 | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Divisional Round - Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots - January 10th, 2004 | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Super Bowl XXXVIII - New England Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers - February 1st, 2004 | Pro-Football-Reference.com


It's because, with the exception of the Ben Watson v. Champ Bailey game (a 14 point loss), the Patriots overcame Vinatieri's misses, and won the games where Vinatieri missed. It's also because the Gost misses are more recent.

 

[everlong]

And yet, despite all of this, Belichick has not seen fit to bring in any meaningful competition for Gostkowski since his rookie season.

AFC Championship - New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers - January 27th, 2002 | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Divisional Round - Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots - January 10th, 2004 | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Super Bowl XXXVIII - New England Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers - February 1st, 2004 | Pro-Football-Reference.com


It's because, with the exception of the Ben Watson v. Champ Bailey game (a 14 point loss), the Patriots overcame Vinatieri's misses, and won the games where Vinatieri missed. It's also because the Gost misses are more recent.

Right, again it's when he's missed them and the fact that two directly led to losses. I didn't say he was a bad kicker but I also never had the anxiety I have with SG when AV was kicking. The Carolina SB, one was partially blocked, I still thought he would nail the game winner. SG this past SB I was sweating it to go up by 10.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

do those number include both reg and post season?

Both.

 

[Deus Irae]

Right, again it's when he's missed them and the fact that two directly led to losses.

My point was that I think the "when" is generally a silly argument when it comes to playoff games. Unless you're looking at a blowout, every FG attempt is a key play. The fact that the Patriots were able to overcome Vinatieri's misses is a big part of the reason why people forget them, but that doesn't make them irrelevant. 2004 against the Panthers is a perfect example. Adam failed on 2 FG attempts in that game. Heck, he missed from 31 on the first drive. That's obviously a big miss. If he makes those FG attempts, that game is quite possibly a much more comfortable win for the Patriots.

But we largely ignore it because of 2001 + overcome misses + distance in time compared to Gost's.

 

[Bradyking12]

Be nice if we strike with our next kicker.

 

[Bruins29]

The tap dancing people do to try to make AV a better kicker than SG is funny. And it always ends up being a "clutch" discussion. Then when its show that SG was just as clutch if not more than AV, the tap dancing starts again.

 

[Snooky97]

I’d rather have Gost than a majority of kickers in the league. Is he perfect? No, but there’s rarely anyone in the league whose perfect, even Justin Tucker misses them.

The AV and SG debate is pointless. They are both outstanding kickers, but AV is more fondly remembered due to the kicks he had.