7 Players - Same Similar Situation

[Marqui]

Much of the tone of the many, many articles on these draftees seems to suggest that Bequette is ready to step in immediately while Jones has a bit more to learn.

Can you be more specific, what exactly does Bequette know now that Jones has to learn?

 

[Ring 6]

I expect a lot from Jones, just not as much early as from Hightower and Bequette. Obviously, Jones has a much, much higher ceiling than Bequette. Much of the tone of the many, many articles on these draftees seems to suggest that Bequette is ready to step in immediately while Jones has a bit more to learn.

I don't ignore the hundreds of articles, before and after the draft.

Also, I don't consider draft position as a predictor of Day One readiness. For me, draft position is more about predicting 2nd and 3rd year production than preicting first round production

OK, but I think you have to factor in the horrible track record of predicting what a player will become that the articles you mention have.
I think draft slot is at least as good a predictor as the consensus of those opinions.

 

[mgteich]

I agree that draft slot is a better predictor of what a player will become that media articles.

I don't think that draft slot is necessarily the best predictor for early rookie year productivity.

OK, but I think you have to factor in the horrible track record of predicting what a player will become that the articles you mention have.
I think draft slot is at least as good a predictor as the consensus of those opinions.

 

[mgteich]

There's a lot out there; just google and make your own determination. Here's one article.

Can Jake Bequette, Chandler Jones Fill Elephant Role for New England Patriots? | Bleacher Report

Can you be more specific, what exactly does Bequette know now that Jones has to learn?

 

[Ring 6]

There's a lot out there; just google and make your own determination. Here's one article.

Can Jake Bequette, Chandler Jones Fill Elephant Role for New England Patriots? | Bleacher Report

Did you read that? Its a Bleacher report fluff article that offers no evidence, or really even opinoin that Bequette is more ready to contribute than Jones.

 

[Ring 6]

I agree that draft slot is a better predictor of what a player will become that media articles.

I don't think that draft slot is necessarily the best predictor for early rookie year productivity.

But draft slot would also be a better predictor of first year play than articles, altough I agree with your contention they are two different things.

 

[mgteich]

Why? Many players are drafted with the exectation that they will be a second year starters, without much expectation for the first year. Others have a lower ceiling, but are more ready to contribute on Day One.

But yes, with no other information, draft slot is a good indicator.

But draft slot would also be a better predictor of first year play than articles, altough I agree with your contention they are two different things.

 

[Ring 6]

Why? Many players are drafted with the exectation that they will be a second year starters, without much expectation for the first year. Others have a lower ceiling, but are more ready to contribute on Day One.

But yes, with no other information, draft slot is a good indicator.

I don't think there are really many players (esp in the first half of the draft) that are looked at as unable to contribute now, but will be great later.
I agree there are many players drafted where the draft analysis writers list weaknesses that will allow them to improve if corrected. Last year Solder was supposedly not going to be able to do anything because he wasn't strong enough. We saw how that turned out.
I think there are very, very few players that are looked at as potential stars that are worse as a rookie than a guy who won't amount to anything.
I think you have a guy with a high upside confused as a guy with a low now, and a guy with a low upside as a guy with a high now.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I don't see the Pats keeping any less than 9 defensive backs, 10 is a distinct possibility. The injuries at that position always seem to mount up over the years so depth is crucial there. There's probably only 6 'locks' and the rest will be fighting for those depth positions.

That being said, has Ebner made enough of an impression to stick as an emergency db/STer? I believe that he is one of those cross-sport, very athletic types. We've had conversions that worked before, ex. Neal from wrestling. Can that work fo a defensive back? You just need speed and ability to play in the scheme and tackle right?

 

[Avenger]

I don't see the Pats keeping any less than 9 defensive backs, 10 is a distinct possibility. The injuries at that position always seem to mount up over the years so depth is crucial there. There's probably only 6 'locks' and the rest will be fighting for those depth positions.

That being said, has Ebner made enough of an impression to stick as an emergency db/STer? I believe that he is one of those cross-sport, very athletic types. We've had conversions that worked before, ex. Neal from wrestling. Can that work fo a defensive back? You just need speed and ability to play in the scheme and tackle right?

He was the most valuable special teams player at the Ohio state, him and Slater flying down field would potentially be a very effective gunner tandem.

 

[patfanken]

I don't see the Pats keeping any less than 9 defensive backs, 10 is a distinct possibility. The injuries at that position always seem to mount up over the years so depth is crucial there. There's probably only 6 'locks' and the rest will be fighting for those depth positions.

That being said, has Ebner made enough of an impression to stick as an emergency db/STer? I believe that he is one of those cross-sport, very athletic types. We've had conversions that worked before, ex. Neal from wrestling. Can that work fo a defensive back? You just need speed and ability to play in the scheme and tackle right?

Ebner is the kind of guy that the PS was designed for. You can't take 3 snaps at your position in college and expect to make an NFL roster....right away. Trust me on this. This is his redshirt year and by September he will be on the PS or IR

 

[patfanken]

RE: the discussion on how fast a rookie can start to contribute.

I think because of the evolution of how defenses are now built, it can be a lot faster than in the past. The day of 11 starters who play the majority of the snaps is long gone. What started with just the nickel back, had evolved to many sub packages that include various combinations of DBs, LBs and DLs.

Now days you have around 16 players who are getting snaps on a regular basis, and instead of having 9 or 10 guys take 80% or more of the regular snaps, you only get about 3. While the rest of the 13 get 40-60%. So with all this specialization teams are better able to get their rookies on the field faster because they only need to learn one or two techniques to function well in a particular sub package or two. Fewer responsibilities mean fewer mental mistakes.

Jones will see snaps right away coming off the edge. He is actually more likely to be more productive than Hightower because he will be doing just that one thing, The Mark Anderson role OTOH, Hightower will be all over the place, playing both in the middle AND on the edge coming from 3 or 4 different positions. If he is as explosive as we hope, the problem for the Pat's coaching staff will be to simplify his reads and responsibilities each week even though he will be playing multiple positions, not an easy task.

Jones' ultimate development into a 3 down OLB/DE will take a lot longer. Its just the nature of the transition to that positon in the BB 3-4. That's not to say he couldn't become impactful right away as a just a rusher.

What I think will be interesting is who is going to get first shot at the Anderson role, Bequette or Jones. Bequette reportedly has the more explosive first step and more experience. Jones has the better hands and leverage.

If I were the Pats, I'd be having Jones working on coming off the ball from now until training camp. Its an area where a player can make vast improvement. Being able to see the ball in your peripheral vision and moving on the the C's twitch is a learned technique. It takes focus and a million reps, but you can get better at it. Like tackling, I feel its one of the undercoached skills in the NFL. And unlike Tackling it requires no contact to improve.

 

[patsfan13]

I do think that W Allen could be 1 of the 4 S who play along with Wilson, Chung and Gregory. IMO Barrett, Ihedigbo & Cole are competing for the last DB/ST slot. I can't see Ebner getting a slot on the 53, he could be a good PS prospect which would give him an opportunity to learn to play football.

My assumption for the 5 CB slots are McCourty, Arrington, Dowling, Moore & Dennard.


I would rather not see Barrett or Ihedigbo on the field for defensive snaps unless it is for a 90% probable running play. I find Cole interesting because the Jets CB slot was much stronger than ours over the past few years and he produced when he got on the field. I am looking forward to seeing him play during preseason.

 

[mgteich]

In your scenario, you already have 9 defensive backs. That's sufficient. Some would only have 8 DB's plus a ST/DB.

If there are 9 DB's and 9LB's and 6 DL's, there is an additional ST roster spot available. Ihedigbo, Barrett and Cole would also be competing with Koutouvides and White for this spot. Top gunner Cole would be a fine choice.

I do think that W Allen could be 1 of the 4 S who play along with Wilson, Chung and Gregory. IMO Barrett, Ihedigbo & Cole are competing for the last DB/ST slot. I can't see Ebner getting a slot on the 53, he could be a good PS prospect which would give him an opportunity to learn to play football.

My assumption for the 5 CB slots are McCourty, Arrington, Dowling, Moore & Dennard.


I would rather not see Barrett or Ihedigbo on the field for defensive snaps unless it is for a 90% probable running play. I find Cole interesting because the Jets CB slot was much stronger than ours over the past few years and he produced when he got on the field. I am looking forward to seeing him play during preseason.