#4 pick over last 10 years

[Huckleberry1]

We gotta hit on #4....no ifs or buts about it....

I don’t think that will be hard to do. Hunter, Carter, Graham are all great prospects, and even Campbell, who is rated lower should become a very good OL for whomever takes him. They can also trade down a few spots, pick up a second round pick, and take Ty Warren, who is going to become a really good TE for the team that gets him.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

We gotta hit on #4....no ifs or buts about it....

Last time we selected at 4, we took Willie McGinest. I expect no less success out of this year’s pick.

 

[mgteich]

I don’t think that will be hard to do. Hunter, Carter, Graham are all great prospects, and even Campbell, who is rated lower should become a very good OL for whomever takes him. They can also trade down a few spots, pick up a second round pick, and take Ty Warren, who is going to become a really good TE for the team that gets him.

so trade the 4th for a second rounder and draft a "really good TE"? ROFL!

 

[Salsalife]

History tells us that if you see a lineman on either side of the ball drafted in the top-five, it’s rare for teams to miss.

Joe Alt was 5th pick in draft. I have zero issues. I just watch Mahomes get Mac Jones like jitters in the pocket and running for his life. Na braa, Drake protection plan.

 

[Huckleberry1]

so trade the 4th for a second rounder and draft a "really good TE"? ROFL!

Trade down a few spots, add a 2nd round pick, and pick up a great TE to be Maye’s long term answer at the position is a good outcome imo. You still have a top 10 pick and add a high second rounder, not sure what s so funny about that?

 

[mgteich]

Trade down a few spots, add a 2nd round pick, and pick up a great TE to be Maye’s long term answer at the position is a good outcome imo. You still have a top 10 pick and add a high second rounder, not sure what s so funny about that?

I think that is "funny" that anyone would think that drafting a TE as our first rounder is a good idea.

 

[KCSVEN]

That people over value the position. They treat it as the 2 spot when its closer to the 10

I had gone back a number of year and analyzed the results of high picks (did this awhile ago so not sure how many years I did but at least 10)
The #1 NON-QB player drafted is 80% chance at having at least 1 pro bowl
60% for top 2 drafted
50% for top 4 drafted.
Pretty big drop off after that.

Some drafts that have 50% hit rate on pro bowlers go to the top 6 non-QB's drafted, weak draft in 2025 so doubt that
If 2 QB's go in the top 4 the Patriots get a 60% chance at a potential pro bowl player.
Very clearly makes the 4 pick much closer to 2 than to 10.

That list is very strong. Denzell ward was pro bowler that signed the largest CB contract in history on his second contract.
-Cooper(5 pro bowls),
-Elliott (3 PB, 3 years in a in a row leading league in yards rushing per game),
-Fournette-Underwhelmed, always had nagging injuries
-Ward-4 PB in 7 years
-Ferrel-Bust
-Thomas: 3rd year voted to 2nd team ALL Pro, signed huge 2nd contract: injuries have been the issue
-Pitts-Made PB first year but not worth a #4 but also a TE, even Bowers couldn't go top 4, that was a dumb pick, look who went next 5 picks: Chase, Waddle, Sewell, Horn and Surtain. That was just a dumb pick for a TE at 4, any other choice was a good choice.
-Gardner-All PRO 2022 and 2023
-Richardson-QB, not relevant, QB hit rate is different
-MHJ-Too early but 62 rec for 885 and 8 TD pretty good but Nabers could have gone there and was the better prospect.

-9 non QB picks
2 Busts
2 All Pro
6 of 9 have been pro bowl/all pro (MHJ is one that didn't but only played 1 year) so really 6 of 8
4 of 9 multiple pro bowls

If you were smart enough to take Nabers over MHJ and Chase over Pitts, which were easy choice IMO, the #4 spot looks phenomenal.

Yup, way closer to #2 than #10

 

[Huckleberry1]

I think that is "funny" that anyone would think that drafting a TE as our first rounder is a good idea.

True, Gronk would have been a terrible first round pick. Or Kelce , or Brock Bowers, or Sam LaPorte.

Tyler Warren is a great receiver and a great blocker. Fortunately the Patriots don’t need either of those things, nor do they need the 80 plus receptions and 10-15 touchdowns he would add, as he would be a great red zone weapon. But when you have touchdown machines like Bourne and Douglas why add a 6’6 receiver with great hands? Then again Maye does love throwing to the TE’s, but hey Hunter Henry has another 10 years in him,, and he’s never injured, so why take a great replacement for him now?

Now that I think of it they don’t really need another high second round pick, they already have too many good players.

Terrible idea, my mistake.

 

[imahobgoblin]

Trade it for Parsons.

Why would Dallas do that? Sounds like you live in the Madden fantasy world. It would take 2-3 first round picks to get Parsons.

 

[imahobgoblin]

True, Gronk would have been a terrible first round pick. Or Kelce , or Brock Bowers, or Sam LaPorte.

Tyler Warren is a great receiver and a great blocker. Fortunately the Patriots don’t need either of those things, nor do they need the 80 plus receptions and 10-15 touchdowns he would add, as he would be a great red zone weapon. But when you have touchdown machines like Bourne and Douglas why add a 6’6 receiver with great hands? Then again Maye does love throwing to the TE’s, but hey Hunter Henry has another 10 years in him,, and he’s never injured, so why take a great replacement for him now?

Now that I think of it they don’t really need another high second round pick, they already have too many good players.

Terrible idea, my mistake.

Tyler Warren is a not a great blocker. I am not saying he is horrible, but that is one part of his game that he needs to improve technique. Gronk was a great blocker and road grader. Warren is nothing like that.

 

[Triumph]

only one OL in 2020 (Andrew Thomas)
only one flat out bust (Clelin Farrell)
Mostly good or very good but not great players

2015 Amari Cooper
2016 Ezekiel Elliott
2017 Leonard Fournette
2018 Denzell Ward
2019 Clelin Farrell
2020 Andrew Thomas
2021 Kyle Pitts
2022 Sauce Gardner
2023 Anthony Richardson
2024 Marvin Harrison Jr

The # 4 pick in round 1 has been gold for the Pats.

Unless you don't like Mcginest and Hannah?

In terms of OT its been great. Trent Williams is sought after right now. Lane Johnson just won him a SB ring. Jon Ogden and Brick Ferguson enough said.

DraftHistory.com

www.drafthistory.com

 

[Pape]

I had gone back a number of year and analyzed the results of high picks (did this awhile ago so not sure how many years I did but at least 10)
The #1 NON-QB player drafted is 80% chance at having at least 1 pro bowl
60% for top 2 drafted
50% for top 4 drafted.
Pretty big drop off after that.

Some drafts that have 50% hit rate on pro bowlers go to the top 6 non-QB's drafted, weak draft in 2025 so doubt that
If 2 QB's go in the top 4 the Patriots get a 60% chance at a potential pro bowl player.
Very clearly makes the 4 pick much closer to 2 than to 10.

That list is very strong. Denzell ward was pro bowler that signed the largest CB contract in history on his second contract.
-Cooper(5 pro bowls),
-Elliott (3 PB, 3 years in a in a row leading league in yards rushing per game),
-Fournette-Underwhelmed, always had nagging injuries
-Ward-4 PB in 7 years
-Ferrel-Bust
-Thomas: 3rd year voted to 2nd team ALL Pro, signed huge 2nd contract: injuries have been the issue
-Pitts-Made PB first year but not worth a #4 but also a TE, even Bowers couldn't go top 4, that was a dumb pick, look who went next 5 picks: Chase, Waddle, Sewell, Horn and Surtain. That was just a dumb pick for a TE at 4, any other choice was a good choice.
-Gardner-All PRO 2022 and 2023
-Richardson-QB, not relevant, QB hit rate is different
-MHJ-Too early but 62 rec for 885 and 8 TD pretty good but Nabers could have gone there and was the better prospect.

-9 non QB picks
2 Busts
2 All Pro
6 of 9 have been pro bowl/all pro (MHJ is one that didn't but only played 1 year) so really 6 of 8
4 of 9 multiple pro bowls

If you were smart enough to take Nabers over MHJ and Chase over Pitts, which were easy choice IMO, the #4 spot looks phenomenal.

Yup, way closer to #2 than #10

That's a great player analysis. Well done!

But, you misunderstand the assignment.

Do a trade analysis - what are teams paying in order to move up in the draft.

That is the Value of 4.

 

[Triumph]

Last time we selected at 4, we took Willie McGinest. I expect no less success out of this year’s pick.

Pray for success and prepare for a Bust.

I don't like the 3 Stooges running the Pats draft. Wolfie, Groh and Thunder is Moe.

 

[Dec54]

That's a great player analysis. Well done!

But, you misunderstand the assignment.

Do a trade analysis - what are teams paying in order to move up in the draft.

That is the Value of 4.

"The Value of 4".......Sounds like a Sherlock Holmes title.

 

[Huckleberry1]

That's a great player analysis. Well done!

But, you misunderstand the assignment.

Do a trade analysis - what are teams paying in order to move up in the draft.

That is the Value of 4.

That depends upon the players available. No one is going to pay the price Carolina payed to Chicago to trade up for QB’s this season, and the same goes for the 4 pick, it isn’t as valuable this year as it has been in past seasons because no one is in dire need of the players who should be available there. The trade charts are valuable as a basic outline, but the real value comes down to the players and the need for them. If Joe Alt was available this year at 4 New England probably wouldn’t trade the pick, but if they did it would cost more than Will Campbell would this year.

 

[lancerman]

History tells us that if you see a lineman on either side of the ball drafted in the top-five, it’s rare for teams to miss.

Joe Alt was 5th pick in draft. I have zero issues. I just watch Mahomes get Mac Jones like jitters in the pocket and running for his life. Na braa, Drake protection plan.

Cause and effect though. Those guys were drafted in the top 5 because they were consensus top 5 level talent in the draft. Accounting for QB's they were probably closer to top 2-3 in the draft at WORST. Just saying "I want this position" and drafting someone in the top 5 if the are not graded there does not make them the same level of prospect and guarantee success.

Like you can't draft someone rated the 10th best player in the draft, get him at 5, and then assume the logic applies because you made him a top 5 pick.

 

[Pape]

That depends upon the players available. No one is going to pay the price Carolina payed to Chicago to trade up for QB’s this season, and the same goes for the 4 pick, it isn’t as valuable this year as it has been in past seasons because no one is in dire need of the players who should be available there. The trade charts are valuable as a basic outline, but the real value comes down to the players and the need for them. If Joe Alt was available this year at 4 New England probably wouldn’t trade the pick, but if they did it would cost more than Will Campbell would this year.

But that the whole point.. People over value 4 because they don't consider those factors. they look at the best possible returns that have occurred in the past and say "they got this, we should get this too". And yes, i fully acknowledge value can fluctuate, and is based on what someone is willing to pay for something. It can go up, it can go down. the 2025 is a weak draft class, not a lot of blue chip players vs a lot of depth talent. You be the judge of what that does to the value of our pick.

I didn't make the trade value chart. Its provides a base line to work from. All i did was read it.

 

[lancerman]

True, Gronk would have been a terrible first round pick. Or Kelce , or Brock Bowers, or Sam LaPorte.

Tyler Warren is a great receiver and a great blocker. Fortunately the Patriots don’t need either of those things, nor do they need the 80 plus receptions and 10-15 touchdowns he would add, as he would be a great red zone weapon. But when you have touchdown machines like Bourne and Douglas why add a 6’6 receiver with great hands? Then again Maye does love throwing to the TE’s, but hey Hunter Henry has another 10 years in him,, and he’s never injured, so why take a great replacement for him now?

Now that I think of it they don’t really need another high second round pick, they already have too many good players.

Terrible idea, my mistake.

I get your logic. But the issue is the Patriots need either a pure receiver or pure blocker at this point. A guy who splits time at both based on need is helpful, but they really just need some guy who can consistently be on the line and complete his assignment and they need a guy that can just run routes all day and be someone opposing defenses have to account for and make adjustments to.

 

[lancerman]

But that the whole point.. People over value 4 because they don't consider those factors. they look at the best possible returns that have occurred in the past and say "they got this, we should get this too". And yes, i fully acknowledge value can fluctuate, and is based on what someone is willing to pay for something. It can go up, it can go down. the 2025 is a weak draft class, not a lot of blue chip players vs a lot of depth talent. You be the judge of what that does to the value of our pick.

I didn't make the trade value chart. Its provides a base line to work from. All i did was read it.

This is true. The trade value chart provides framework. It allows teams to go into a trade negotiation and say "hey at the end of the day we are all taking educated guesses and have our own system based on what each guy is truly worth as a prospect, this chart is what history says it is and is the closest to an objective source of truth we can have here. So we can negotiate and stray from this, but the party giving something up has a justification for what their return should somewhat look like".

Then you have a reasonable starting point and teams can determine if where they value who would be picked is worth paying the price for them or walking away and then nobody can get mad and feel like they were ripped off too bad.

 

[Salsalife]

Cause and effect though. Those guys were drafted in the top 5 because they were consensus top 5 level talent in the draft. Accounting for QB's they were probably closer to top 2-3 in the draft at WORST. Just saying "I want this position" and drafting someone in the top 5 if the are not graded there does not make them the same level of prospect and guarantee success.

Like you can't draft someone rated the 10th best player in the draft, get him at 5, and then assume the logic applies because you made him a top 5 pick.

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Offensive tackles

• OT1. Will Campbell, LSU.
• OT2. Josh Simmons, Ohio State.
• OT3. Kelvin Banks Jr., Texas.
• OT4. Armand Membou, Missouri.
• OT5. Josh Conerly Jr., Oregon.

Jan 27, 2025
As for picking the best player at 4 is not what I'm looking for. What is the #1 POSITION this team needs to compete? Patriots Team needs matter and scoring points starts with protection of Drake. The other offshute is the running game will improve.