4/11 7 round mock from Abromowitz

[mayoclinic]

This from the "football expert" (who does have a very good track record):

The Football Expert: 2009 NFL Mock Draft - 7 Rounds

23 - Clay Matthews, OLB: "At 23, the Patriots may have their pick of the litter for OLB. Besides Matthews, they could draft Connor Barwin, Clint Sintim, or Larry English. Any one of them would be ideal in the 3-4 system, now the Pats just need to know which one to draft. "
34 - James Laurinaitis, ILB
47 - Patrick Chung, SS
58 - Duke Robinson, OG
89 - Chase Coffman, TE
97 - Kevin Ogletree, WR
124 - Coye "Francois", CB
170 - Tom Brandstater, QB
199 - Ian Johnson, RB
207 - Clinton McDonald, DE/DT
234 - Deon Butler, WR

Other notable picks:

33 - William Beatty, OT
37 - Louis Delmas, S
41 - Connor Barwin, OLB
53 - Jarron Gilbert, DE
63 - Eric Wood, OG/C
66 - Chip Vaughn, SS
91 - Jason Williams, OLB
107 - TJ Lang, OG
108 - Chris Baker, DT
209 - Joe Burnet, CB

I must say, I'm disappointed. I don't like it. I particularly don't like the combination of Matthews and Laurinaitis - either one I could justify, but together they dont' seem like a good fit at all. And Duke Robinson as well.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I must say, I'm disappointed. I don't like it. I particularly don't like the combination of Matthews and Laurinaitis - either one I could justify, but together they dont' seem like a good fit at all. And Duke Robinson as well.

I mentally substitute Connor Barwin for Matthews. It makes it sound a lot better.

Seriously, though, Abromowitz admits defeat:

Projecting what the Patriots will draft is projecting what Paris Hilton will do next. You just never know.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

"At 23, the Patriots may have their pick of the litter for OLB. Besides Matthews, they could draft Connor Barwin, Clint Sintim, or Larry English. Any one of them would be ideal in the 3-4 system, now the Pats just need to know which one to draft."

This is why we shouldn't take any off them at #23 unless we think one is a crazy stud. This isn't a normal draft where we have 31 picks between our top and second pick, there's only 10 picks we have to sit through. If there's 5 good OLB, I'd take the BPA and revisit OLB at #34.

 

[p8ryts]

Actually it doesn't look bad to me. I even like the lower ones if they could come true such as Brandstater, Johnson,Butler.

I'm a little nervous about Matthews with the steroid allegations and Kiper dropping him down. If there is nothing wrong there I think Matthews would be great. There used to be a coach at Tennessee State when Claude Humphrey was drafted out of there and he said the best football players have a square jaw. Well Matthews has a square jaw and that makes about as much sense as any other evaluation criteria so I'm supporting "Square Jaw Matthews"

 

[BritPat]

Robinson?

Fail.

 

[Ungeheuer]

Man, I don't know what you guys are thinking. This would be a dynamite draft if it actually happened. Chase Coffman, Coye Francies, and Deon Butler as second-day picks? All those guys could go in the first three rounds. Plus, Brandstater is a pretty interesting quarterback.

I don't get the anti-Matthews sentiment on this board. To me he's the best pick for the Pats in round one, unless someone unexpected falls, like Maualuga. The guy can clearly play on the outside and the inside, can cover tight ends, and is almost sure to be a dependable professional. What's the downside there? I don't get it.

Robinson is also a good pick. The Pats could maybe use a mauler on the right side for a change. I don't love Chung, but he'd be serviceable. And Laurainitis has been consistent his whole career. What's the problem here? Is it because Barwin isn't in the group?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I don't get the anti-Matthews sentiment on this board. To me he's the best pick for the Pats in round one, unless someone unexpected falls, like Maualuga. The guy can clearly play on the outside and the inside, can cover tight ends, and is almost sure to be a dependable professional. What's the downside there? I don't get it.

The main reason why I have Barwin over Matthews is that Barwin is bigger, faster, and looks like he'd be better at using power to shed OLs.

That said, if BB thinks Matthews is the best pick at #23, IBBWT.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

The main reason why I have Barwin over Matthews is that Barwin is bigger, faster, and looks like he'd be better at using power to shed OLs.

That said, if BB thinks Matthews is the best pick at #23, IBBWT.

After he pees in the cup.

 

[JoeShmoe]

I like it .. if it fell that way we'd have an OLB, ILB, S and G.. positions of need

 

[mayoclinic]

The main reason why I have Barwin over Matthews is that Barwin is bigger, faster, and looks like he'd be better at using power to shed OLs.

That said, if BB thinks Matthews is the best pick at #23, IBBWT.

I 100% agree, IBWT. If he passes on Barwin for Matthews, it's fine with me. I don't think that will happen, but I can't predict Paris Hilton either.

I like Matthews, but Matthews and Laurinaitis together makes no sense to me. Matthews is a more athletic version of Laurinaitis as far as I'm concerned, and I would project him inside if he can learn to handle OT's.

If I were going by a strict BVA approach following my board with no trades, my draft following Abromowitz's order would look something like this:

23 - Connor Barwin, OLB (41)
34 - Louis Delmas, S (37) - I would have taken William Beatty here, but he went #33 to the Lions
47 - Jarren Gilbert, DE (53) - next best value on my board; happy to get him at 47
58 - Eric Wood, C (63)
89 - Jason Williams, LB (91) - I project him inside to SILB
97 - Chris Baker, DT (108) - TJ Lang (107) or Trevor Canfield (115) could go here, but with Eric Wood at 58 I go DT
124 - Mike Wallace, WR (177) - a steal here; considered one of the top 1- WRs and a possible 2nd round pick by NFL.com
170 - Kevin Huber, P (182) - Ladarius Webb (174) could also be the pick here
199 - Joe Burnet, CB - a steal this late
207 - Devin Moore, RB - a steal this late
234 - Brian Hoyer, QB (250)

I would have to consider that a pretty darn good draft. Unless BJ Raji falls my "perfect" first day would be Barwin, Beatty, Delmas and Gilbert, and Wood instead of Beatty would be a pretty decent alternative. I could see every 2nd day pick seriously competing for a roster spot, or at least the PS. I would be very pleased with that draft.

 

[strongside]

I'm actually really on board with Laurinaitis. Only problem is I doubt he's around at after rd 1. I would love to see him at 23. The guy is the total package and is without a doubt the best LB in coverage in the entire draft. I do have some questions on him taking on blockers though. If you watch him on tape he had a tendancy to run around blocks and because he was so athletic he could make the play. Very productive in college abd he got better every year.

 

[PATSNUTme]

I like pick #23.:rocker:

 

[patchick]

This is why we shouldn't take any off them at #23 unless we think one is a crazy stud. This isn't a normal draft where we have 31 picks between our top and second pick, there's only 10 picks we have to sit through. If there's 5 good OLB, I'd take the BPA and revisit OLB at #34.

The problem with their "any one of them would be ideal" statement is that they're very different players. In order to say you'll take whoever falls, you have say, e.g., that you consider a prolific 3-point pass-rushing DE from a small conference who has never played in space (English) as roughly equivalent to a multi-year starter at OLB in Al Groh's 3-4 with limited upside (Sintim).

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

The problem with their "any one of them would be ideal" statement is that they're very different players. In order to say you'll take whoever falls, you have say, e.g., that you consider a prolific 3-point pass-rushing DE from a small conference who has never played in space (English) as roughly equivalent to a multi-year starter at OLB in Al Groh's 3-4 with limited upside (Sintim).

I've said several times that the "any of them" comment goes out the window if there's one guy they love or who is the best fit. But as they would all take a little development time, I expect there to be several viable choices. Especially if you look at the "great athlete, need to develop" types like Barwin, Matthews, Maybin, Johnson group. I'm not saying their skill sets are all identical but they can reasonably be grouped together. English is a little different as he's not the testable athlete they others are but should be a tougher guy at setting the edge from day one.

 

[mgteich]

I agree with all these comments (especially the last one). I would pick differently, but this would be an excellent result of the draft.

Man, I don't know what you guys are thinking. This would be a dynamite draft if it actually happened. Chase Coffman, Coye Francies, and Deon Butler as second-day picks? All those guys could go in the first three rounds. Plus, Brandstater is a pretty interesting quarterback.

I don't get the anti-Matthews sentiment on this board. To me he's the best pick for the Pats in round one, unless someone unexpected falls, like Maualuga. The guy can clearly play on the outside and the inside, can cover tight ends, and is almost sure to be a dependable professional. What's the downside there? I don't get it.

Robinson is also a good pick. The Pats could maybe use a mauler on the right side for a change. I don't love Chung, but he'd be serviceable. And Laurainitis has been consistent his whole career. What's the problem here? Is it because Barwin isn't in the group?

 

[mayoclinic]

Man, I don't know what you guys are thinking. This would be a dynamite draft if it actually happened. Chase Coffman, Coye Francies, and Deon Butler as second-day picks? All those guys could go in the first three rounds. Plus, Brandstater is a pretty interesting quarterback.

I don't get the anti-Matthews sentiment on this board. To me he's the best pick for the Pats in round one, unless someone unexpected falls, like Maualuga. The guy can clearly play on the outside and the inside, can cover tight ends, and is almost sure to be a dependable professional. What's the downside there? I don't get it.

Robinson is also a good pick. The Pats could maybe use a mauler on the right side for a change. I don't love Chung, but he'd be serviceable. And Laurainitis has been consistent his whole career. What's the problem here? Is it because Barwin isn't in the group?

I said in my OP that I was disappointed by this mock, and I'll stand by that assessment. I don't think it was horrible by any stretch, but several of the picks didn't make particular sense to me. To address some of your comments in particular:

1. I don't have much of a problem with the 2nd day picks, though I prefer others, as I documented in my 2nd post on this thread. I'm fine with Butler in particular in the 7th, where he would be great value. I can't see passing on Joe Burnet if he were available at 199 - the value would be too great. I think Coye Francies will go before 124 (I've had Baltimore taking him at 57 in several mocks) but I don't see him being a great fit for the Pats - he doesn't have fluid hips or great ball skills. I think he's a better fit for a team that likes big CBs like Baltimore, or a cover 2 team. Ogletree at 97 seems like a stretch for me, and there are a lot of very good players still available at that pick. But again, overall I don't have much of a problem with it.

2. I have no problem with Chung at 47, though with Jarron Gilbert still on the board I have a hard time passing on Gilbert at 47.

3. I don't think Duke Robinson fits the Pats style at all. He's big but not very mobile and his road-grading style is a better fit for a team like Dallas then the Pats. I'd rather use #97 on a player like Trevor Canfield or TJ Lang.

4. I don't dislike Clay Matthews or James Laurinaitis. Matthews is a nice player. I've said multiple times I'd be happy with Matthews at 34 if the Pats felt he could move to SILB. I prefer Barwin at 3-4 OLB based on size, athleticism, versatility. I see Matthews struggling with holding the edge in the Pats system based on his size. I've said before that I like Laurinaitis, but don't see him as a good fit for the Pats. However, the combination of Matthews and Laurinaitis concerns me much more than either alone. A LB corps of Mathews-Laurinaitis-Mayo-Thomas would be much weaker against the run and much less adept at taking on blockers than I would like. I could see going for one of them, but both together would not work at all, IMHO. Matthews and Laurinaitis are both weak at taking on offensive lineman and getting off blocks. I think there weaknesses would compound each other.

That's my take, for what little it's worth.

 

[DW Toys]

This from the "football expert" (who does have a very good track record):

The Football Expert: 2009 NFL Mock Draft - 7 Rounds

23 - Clay Matthews, OLB: "At 23, the Patriots may have their pick of the litter for OLB. Besides Matthews, they could draft Connor Barwin, Clint Sintim, or Larry English. Any one of them would be ideal in the 3-4 system, now the Pats just need to know which one to draft. "
34 - James Laurinaitis, ILB
47 - Patrick Chung, SS
58 - Duke Robinson, OG
89 - Chase Coffman, TE
97 - Kevin Ogletree, WR
124 - Coye "Francois", CB
170 - Tom Brandstater, QB
199 - Ian Johnson, RB
207 - Clinton McDonald, DE/DT
234 - Deon Butler, WR

Other notable picks:

33 - William Beatty, OT
37 - Louis Delmas, S
41 - Connor Barwin, OLB
53 - Jarron Gilbert, DE
63 - Eric Wood, OG/C
66 - Chip Vaughn, SS
91 - Jason Williams, OLB
107 - TJ Lang, OG
108 - Chris Baker, DT
209 - Joe Burnet, CB

I must say, I'm disappointed. I don't like it. I particularly don't like the combination of Matthews and Laurinaitis - either one I could justify, but together they dont' seem like a good fit at all. And Duke Robinson as well.

I actually see Matthews as an ILB in our scheme so I agree.
DW Toys

 

[patchick]

I've said several times that the "any of them" comment goes out the window if there's one guy they love or who is the best fit. But as they would all take a little development time, I expect there to be several viable choices. Especially if you look at the "great athlete, need to develop" types like Barwin, Matthews, Maybin, Johnson group. I'm not saying their skill sets are all identical but they can reasonably be grouped together. English is a little different as he's not the testable athlete they others are but should be a tougher guy at setting the edge from day one.

That's an interesting grouping, and I think a fair one. (Though Matthews could be more of a wild card if you project him inside as several posters here do.) The outliers, then, would be English and Sintim.

So let's assume for the moment that none of them leaps out at the Pats as head and shoulders above. How confident are we of finding one of the targets at #34? In the nflroughdraft.com 7-round-mock that was well-received here, the following options are still around at 34:

English
Sintim

That's it. Not one of your four developmental phenoms makes it out of the 1st round. (Granted, in that mock the Pats take Barwin, but he could have gone to Miami in place of Butler if he were still on the board.) So is there really safety in numbers in this case?

EDIT: I'd also say that the likeliest of the 4 to make it to #34 is Johnson, but he's also the only one for whom effort, intensity and instincts are problems not pluses.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

That's an interesting grouping, and I think a fair one. (Though Matthews could be more of a wild card if you project him inside as several posters here do.) The outliers, then, would be English and Sintim.

So let's assume for the moment that none of them leaps out at the Pats as head and shoulders above. How confident are we of finding one of the targets at #34? In the nflroughdraft.com 7-round-mock that was well-received here, the following options are still around at 34:

English
Sintim

That's it. Not one of your four developmental phenoms makes it out of the 1st round. (Granted, in that mock the Pats take Barwin, but he could have gone to Miami in place of Butler if he were still on the board.) So is there really safety in numbers in this case?

It depends how the draft is going. If none of them has gone when we're up then I'd take my chances. If only one is left then I'd get one while the getting is good (if that's a player I really want out of this draft).

But I do see a bigger group because I'm willing to put English and Sintim in with the others. Are they the same player ? No. But I don't think Belichick has to have the exact player for a given position, I think he can take Maybin and use his pass rushing skills or English and use his power and strength and work around the players. With the group of Barwin, Matthews, Johnson, Maybin, Cushing, English, Sintim, I think they're all viable, I just don't know how closely the Patriots rank them. If there's small gaps between the rankings then I take the BPA at #23 and revisit 11 picks later. If there's a guy they love, that's different. But I could see them liking English and Maybin for the same position even though they'd use them differently.

 

[Feep50]

I like pick #23.:rocker:

Me also..... I'm on the Matthews train......been chugging down the racks for a while too....

Oh, and BB, if you're scanning these posts, Patrick Chung please......