DRAFT 2022 PTP Draft Board / Pats Draft Talk

[KDPPatsfan85]

My mock draft on E2G Sports...

E2G PHIL 1 ROUND MOCK DRAFT 1.0

E2G Phil 1 Round Mock Draft Round 1 Jaguars- Aidan Hutchinson EDGE Michigan Lions- Garrett Wilson WR Ohio State Texans- Sauce Gardner CB Cincinnati Jets- Evan Neal OT Alabama Giants- […]

e2gsports.com

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

My mock draft on E2G Sports...

E2G PHIL 1 ROUND MOCK DRAFT 1.0

E2G Phil 1 Round Mock Draft Round 1 Jaguars- Aidan Hutchinson EDGE Michigan Lions- Garrett Wilson WR Ohio State Texans- Sauce Gardner CB Cincinnati Jets- Evan Neal OT Alabama Giants- […]

e2gsports.com

This mock makes a lot of sense, especially Sauce Gardner CB at 3. I think he is that good. Also Jordan Davis DT Georgia is long gone by the time that Patriots pick. Again, this seems spot on (why the hell did this big guy have to run so well at the Combine???).

As far as the Jets taking WR Drake London at 10, this seems dubious, but I sure hope that the Jets are that dumb. It would make my day.

This mock also has the Patriots trading down twice. Make sense if they can get a good deal for this slots. With all the quality second tier WR and CB talent out there and the Patriots obvious needs, trading down makes a lot of sense.

 

[KDPPatsfan85]

This mock makes a lot of sense, especially Sauce Gardner CB at 3. I think he is that good. Also Jordan Davis DT Georgia is long gone by the time that Patriots pick. Again, this seems spot on (why the hell did this big guy have to run so well at the Combine???).

As far as the Jets taking WR Drake London at 10, this seems dubious, but I sure hope that the Jets are that dumb. It would make my day.

This mock also has the Patriots trading down twice. Make sense if they can get a good deal for this slots. With all the quality second tier WR and CB talent out there and the Patriots obvious needs, trading down makes a lot of sense.

I feel the talent level from 16-60 are about the same, so why not trade down to acquire more picks. We have a ton of needs that we didn't address during this free agency.

 

[sb1]

Patriots 7-round mock draft: Trade with AFC East rival brings massive haul

The New England Patriots are focusing their attention on filling out their roster with young talent through the NFL draft, if owner Robert Kraft's recent comments are any indication. So it's interesting to bring our focus on how the roster might change in the 2022…

patriotswire.usatoday.com

This would be a good trade for the Patriots if they pull it off.

 

[upstater1]

I feel the talent level from 16-60 are about the same, so why not trade down to acquire more picks. We have a ton of needs that we didn't address during this free agency.

I can't agree, I think it's only true from 25-60.

This is why I would not trade down.

There's a qualitative difference between Kyler Gordon and Andrew Booth, between Drake Jackson and J Johnson, between Jameson Williams and John Metchie.

I just think there's a big dropoff.

 

[BelizePats]

I can't agree, I think it's only true from 25-60.

This is why I would not trade down.

There's a qualitative difference between Kyler Gordon and Andrew Booth, between Drake Jackson and J Johnson, between Jameson Williams and John Metchie.

I just think there's a big dropoff.

Agree with this. Bottom line is that at 21 we will have the opportunity to draft a high level athlete. Yes we have many needs but I hope to see quality over quantity in the 2022 draft.

 

[PowerRunRevival]

I can't agree, I think it's only true from 25-60.

This is why I would not trade down.

There's a qualitative difference between Kyler Gordon and Andrew Booth, between Drake Jackson and J Johnson, between Jameson Williams and John Metchie.

I just think there's a big dropoff.

The draft has a lot of chance involved. We can feel confident about the qualitative differences making one player better than the other but it's not an exact science so we can't be sure. I'm in favor of trading back because I'd rather pick up more picks. With the draft being a crapshoot I'd rather have more opportunities and drop back from 21 to 25-30 than just pick at 21.

I expect that if someone the Pats love slips to 21 then they pick that player but otherwise I expect them to trade back from 21.

With only 23 players under contract next year I could see the Pats trading back to accumulate picks and drafting 10 players.

 

[upstater1]

The draft has a lot of chance involved. We can feel confident about the qualitative differences making one player better than the other but it's not an exact science so we can't be sure. I'm in favor of trading back because I'd rather pick up more picks. With the draft being a crapshoot I'd rather have more opportunities and drop back from 21 to 25-30 than just pick at 21.

I expect that if someone the Pats love slips to 21 then they pick that player but otherwise I expect them to trade back from 21.

With only 23 players under contract next year I could see the Pats trading back to accumulate picks and drafting 10 players.

I understand this line of thinking.

It is a crapshoot.

However, there's another way to think about it. The Patriots have forever drafted in the last 4 picks of the first round. We're always taking those 25-60 guys. Most of the big stars in the NFL are in that first bunch in the top half of the first round. It is much much less of a crapshoot.

And I think this is why the Patriots don't have those game changers. If you end up with 2 guys from trading down, and those guys are Metchie and Khalil Shakir, you may have just grabbed the next Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor. Meanwhile Jameson Williams turns into Cee Dee Lamb.

Here's what concerns me about the back end of the first round. The players projected there by the experts are slotted also into the 2nd round round, sometimes the back end of the 2nd, by other experts. There are varying opinions. Wereas the guys projected to go in the top 22-23 are ALWAYS slated for the first round.

The only mock that I've seen that breaks away from this groupthink wisdom is Tannenbaum's. He has a lot of the top 15 slated for the end of the 1st round.

Everyone can't be wrong about all those 22-23 players, can they?

 

[Brotherblues]

BGC, you think the Pats probably hold off on a WR until round 3 or later and go for more of a developmental type? The assumption here is that Agholor will naturally do better as Mac makes a leap, and they're ok with picking someone who will probably semi-redshirt as a WR4. Then when Agholor's contract is up after this season, the new kid gets a chance at a bigger role (plus there'd still be next offseason to address the position).

 

[PowerRunRevival]

I understand this line of thinking.

It is a crapshoot.

However, there's another way to think about it. The Patriots have forever drafted in the last 4 picks of the first round. We're always taking those 25-60 guys. Most of the big stars in the NFL are in that first bunch in the top half of the first round. It is much much less of a crapshoot.

And I think this is why the Patriots don't have those game changers. If you end up with 2 guys from trading down, and those guys are Metchie and Khalil Shakir, you may have just grabbed the next Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor. Meanwhile Jameson Williams turns into Cee Dee Lamb.

Here's what concerns me about the back end of the first round. The players projected there by the experts are slotted also into the 2nd round round, sometimes the back end of the 2nd, by other experts. There are varying opinions. Wereas the guys projected to go in the top 22-23 are ALWAYS slated for the first round.

The only mock that I've seen that breaks away from this groupthink wisdom is Tannenbaum's. He has a lot of the top 15 slated for the end of the 1st round.

Everyone can't be wrong about all those 22-23 players, can they?

No everyone can't be wrong about the 22-23 players. However, as fans we are only seeing the media's top 22-23 players we don't get to see the teams internal big boards. I think the wisdom of the crowd is a good way to pick the best player, but the media is only a small portion of the total crowd.

 

[50-yard-line]

With only 23 players under contract next year I could see the Pats trading back to accumulate picks and drafting 10 players.

Where'd you get that number? I know they've got more than 23.

Just spitballing...

Mac, Hoyer
White, Stevenson, Montgomery
Folk
Brown, Andrews, Onwenu, Herron, Desjarlais
Bourne
Henry, Smith, Keene, Asiasi

Judon, Guy, Wise, Barmore
Uche, Jennings, Perkins, Bentley, McGrone
Dugger, Phillips, Butler, Mills, Wade, Bledsoe

There's 31, and I probably missed a couple. Nordin still on the roster? Special teamers?

Add in at least 5 from this year's draft - probably more like 7.

 

[PowerRunRevival]

Where'd you get that number? I know they've got more than 23.

Just spitballing...

Mac, Hoyer
White, Stevenson, Montgomery
Folk
Brown, Andrews, Onwenu, Herron, Desjarlais
Bourne
Henry, Smith, Keene, Asiasi

Judon, Guy, Wise, Barmore
Uche, Jennings, Perkins, Bentley, McGrone
Dugger, Phillips, Butler, Mills, Wade, Bledsoe

There's 31, and I probably missed a couple. Nordin still on the roster? Special teamers?

Add in at least 5 from this year's draft - probably more like 7.

I heard it on a podcast, but now that I think about it the podcast might have come out before free agency started. Over the cap has it at 32 currently.

While my number was off my point was that I expect the Pats to come out with 8-11 drafted players which would mean the team needs to acquire additional picks since they only currently have 7 selections.

 

[Water Boy]

I don't necessarily want quantity over quality. We have needs over our entire roster and shouldn't reach and draft for need unless the BPA fits a need. I think Zion Johnson should be the pick in Round 1. He's likely the best at his position where we will be drafting and a potential pro bowler and he fits a gapping whole in our offensive line at left guard. Very import to keep the pocket clean for Mac and he is a fantastic run blocker.

 

[50-yard-line]

I heard it on a podcast, but now that I think about it the podcast might have come out before free agency started. Over the cap has it at 32 currently.

While my number was off my point was that I expect the Pats to come out with 8-11 drafted players which would mean the team needs to acquire additional picks since they only currently have 7 selections.

We're not the only ones thinking this draft is thick in the middle, so trade downs might not be as easy or lucrative as you think.

I'm curious now that 2 top-10 picks have been dangled as available for a trade, to see what they bring. Nowhere near as much as last year, I bet.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of trade-downs from the Pats, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them pick at 21 (50-50...or 49-49-2 (trade up)), and maybe even trade up after Round 1, with to get an extra Day 2 pick, or a player they really like, like Barmore last year.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Kenny Pickett or Willis?

I think both will go top 10-12 but Pickett has ties to the Panthers.

BGC, you think the Pats probably hold off on a WR until round 3 or later and go for more of a developmental type? The assumption here is that Agholor will naturally do better as Mac makes a leap, and they're ok with picking someone who will probably semi-redshirt as a WR4. Then when Agholor's contract is up after this season, the new kid gets a chance at a bigger role (plus there'd still be next offseason to address the position).

Yea I go back and forth on this. We targeted Agholor less. I don't think we took full advantage of his abilities. So I think we left some meat on the bone there. Obviously Smith. I think Bourne and Meyers could be maxed out just a little more. There's production there to be had for sure.

Personally I'd probably only draft Burks or Williams at 21 and maybe London end of RD1/RD2 if we trade back. We typically haven't spent high capital on smaller slot WRs. So guys like Olave are probably out that early. Again maybe if we trade back slightly.

I'm of the belief that the powers that be think this is a good enough group to win in the playoffs and might want to see Mac maximize this group before investing more capital. That said a WR at 21 or 54 or 85 isn't that expensive. Just think we have bigger priorities at the moment.

I'd say 70/30 (no) in RD1. 60/40 RD2 & 50/50.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Usually you have about 3-8 elite prospects. 25-40 really good impactful prospects. Then 25-40 prospects with type of potential if they hit the right system, get with right QB or coach etc ... That's the top 75-100 give or take. You'll have guys that are a little more limited, maybe smaller, an injury concern or just guys you missed on slightly make up RD4. After that the talent and value isn't that far apart. System fits and upside. Maybe you'll get lucky and hit an outlier.

I won't have any "elite" grades on anyone in this class. Basically no one worth drafting in the top ten in terms of value/talent. Neal, Hutch, Cross, KT, Johnson, Walker and maybe someone else or two are close. Then guys like Sauce, Icky, Booth, Stingley, Ojabo, Lloyd, Ebiketie, Sam Williams, J Williams & Burks.

Then Hamilton, Davis, Leal, Wyatt, Chenal, Cine, Penning etc

I'll have a decent amount of grades done this week and pretty confident in the above in some shape or form close to it.

 

[Ring 6]

Where'd you get that number? I know they've got more than 23.

Just spitballing...

Mac, Hoyer
White, Stevenson, Montgomery
Folk
Brown, Andrews, Onwenu, Herron, Desjarlais
Bourne
Henry, Smith, Keene, Asiasi

Judon, Guy, Wise, Barmore
Uche, Jennings, Perkins, Bentley, McGrone
Dugger, Phillips, Butler, Mills, Wade, Bledsoe

There's 31, and I probably missed a couple. Nordin still on the roster? Special teamers?

Add in at least 5 from this year's draft - probably more like 7.

They have 33.

New England Patriots Salary Cap | Over the Cap

New England Patriots salary cap, contracts, bonus money, dead money, and cap savings for every player

overthecap.com

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I understand this line of thinking.

It is a crapshoot.

However, there's another way to think about it. The Patriots have forever drafted in the last 4 picks of the first round. We're always taking those 25-60 guys. Most of the big stars in the NFL are in that first bunch in the top half of the first round. It is much much less of a crapshoot.

And I think this is why the Patriots don't have those game changers. If you end up with 2 guys from trading down, and those guys are Metchie and Khalil Shakir, you may have just grabbed the next Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor. Meanwhile Jameson Williams turns into Cee Dee Lamb.

Here's what concerns me about the back end of the first round. The players projected there by the experts are slotted also into the 2nd round round, sometimes the back end of the 2nd, by other experts. There are varying opinions. Wereas the guys projected to go in the top 22-23 are ALWAYS slated for the first round.

The only mock that I've seen that breaks away from this groupthink wisdom is Tannenbaum's. He has a lot of the top 15 slated for the end of the 1st round.

Everyone can't be wrong about all those 22-23 players, can they?

Groupthink has overrun draft analysis. Like guys on Twitter will have 250 rankings throughout the year. They're all in group chats with each other and talking with each other. Even a lot of the big shots are about attention and presentation > quality and results. That's another reason why I always push for people to have a draft history or look for one. Honestly there's like 5-6 people I pay attention too. I like Brugler, Zierlein and Waldman (he doesn't do OL or D) for name guys. Although I gladly put my grades against theirs and think I'd do as well if not better but they're all really good. All put in a ton of effort I respect a ton. Then a few guys that aren't online or Twitter that are as good but just never went into that space.

I couldn't tell you who has who where besides those few and Waldman and Brugler haven't put out there stuff yet. Only saw a few of Lance's grades so far.

I'm always nervous after putting my grades out bc they don't look like most of what you see out there. Its not easy. Similar to baseball I think hitting on 35-40% of your picks is successful.

Someday some nerd will go through the available info from people, not teams. And shed some light on this stuff. Might be an interesting find.

Personally I'd like to see who's good at each position or side of ball. I've always been intrigued by that bc some positions translate easier into the league.

I forgot all about Tannenbaum. He has a group or site I believe? Not sure if he's still on TV I don't watch those shows but I like hearing from former GM's and people that were in that space. They have stories and experience for days.

 

[upstater1]

Groupthink has overrun draft analysis. Like guys on Twitter will have 250 rankings throughout the year. They're all in group chats with each other and talking with each other. Even a lot of the big shots are about attention and presentation > quality and results. That's another reason why I always push for people to have a draft history or look for one. Honestly there's like 5-6 people I pay attention too. I like Brugler, Zierlein and Waldman (he doesn't do OL or D) for name guys. Although I gladly put my grades against theirs and think I'd do as well if not better but they're all really good. All put in a ton of effort I respect a ton. Then a few guys that aren't online or Twitter that are as good but just never went into that space.

I couldn't tell you who has who where besides those few and Waldman and Brugler haven't put out there stuff yet. Only saw a few of Lance's grades so far.

I'm always nervous after putting my grades out bc they don't look like most of what you see out there. Its not easy. Similar to baseball I think hitting on 35-40% of your picks is successful.

Someday some nerd will go through the available info from people, not teams. And shed some light on this stuff. Might be an interesting find.

Personally I'd like to see who's good at each position or side of ball. I've always been intrigued by that bc some positions translate easier into the league.

I forgot all about Tannenbaum. He has a group or site I believe? Not sure if he's still on TV I don't watch those shows but I like hearing from former GM's and people that were in that space. They have stories and experience for days.

Thanks for responding. This is informative. Maybe this is the reason why things fluctuate so much just before the draft as more of the people with a track record weigh in.

Tannenbaum put out his mock on ESPN recently and I linked to it a few pages back in this thread.

He is not high on Stingley and Jordan Davis, for instance.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Thanks for responding. This is informative. Maybe this is the reason why things fluctuate so much just before the draft as more of the people with a track record weigh in.

Tannenbaum put out his mock on ESPN recently and I linked to it a few pages back in this thread.

He is not high on Stingley and Jordan Davis, for instance.

Yea so basically when you hear "this player is shooting up the board" that should raise some questions bc it doesn't happen that often. It's just that the media is just finding out about said prospect on a teams board. Like the tape is the tape, that doesn't change and you can usually tell or we know bc of past workouts how athletic a prospect is.

The only time a prospect would move up or down significantly is if a medical issues came to light or an arrest or something like that.

Yea a lot of these guys online or Twitter talk themselves into prospects a year before the draft. They all are friends and care about networking more than original thought or process. Idk who am I but I can't help but see through some of it.

I've said and believe Davis will be around for us or very close to it. Really doubt he goes top 10-15 but we'll see.

One thing that might hurt us is multiple teams have multiple picks ahead of us and could afford to take him. Then you have a team like the Chargers where he'd slide in no problem.