2022 Draft Class of WRs

[mgteich]

Only if you're willing to take a $10M hit.


His cap is $15M not the $11M others are claiming.

I agree with regard to Agholor. We could trade him for a 7th if we want him gone. Surely, most posters here think that he can easily be replaced for $10M (NOT!).

Cutting Harry would cost $2M. He can be our #4 or #5 WR for $1.2M of new money. If we don't want him at all, we should trade him for a 7th, Josh is likely to take, but another could step in.

Most likely is that he will be kept through camp and perhaps traded in August if we have an upgrade for the 53 man roster.

 

[DaBruinz]

My hope is Patriots draft (in priority order)

- Chris Olave (route runner and fast)
- Jahan Dotson (route runner and slot guy)
- Jameson (Alabama reunion)
- Elam (CB - top man-man)
- Lloyd (Young LB)
- Dean or Harris (2nd tier LB)
- Faafalele (A beast tackle, 6'9")

Not sure if you watched the Senior Bowl or Practices, but Faafalele wasn't a Beast.

I don't know about the two LBs, but the other 4 guys are being talked about as 1st round picks. I don't see the Patriots using ANOTHER 1st round pick on a WR when the DEFENSE has much bigger issues.

 

[DaBruinz]

I agree with regard to Agholor. We could trade him for a 7th if we want him gone. Surely, most posters here think that he can easily be replaced for $10M (NOT!).

Cutting Harry would cost $2M. He can be our #4 or #5 WR for $1.2M of new money. I we don't want him at all, we should trade him for a 7th, Josh is likely to take, but another could step in.

Most likely is that he will be kept through camp and perhaps traded in August if we have an upgrade for the 53 man roster.

You're incorrect in your terminology in regards to Harry. Harry currently counts 3.213M against the Cap. Cutting him would save the Patriots 1.198M against the cap. So, instead of the 3.213M, it would be a 2.015M hit.

Agholor will get significantly more than a 7th. And yes, they could get another WR in that wouldn't hit the Cap for 10M but still be as good or BETTER than him. It's all in how you work the 1st year's Cap number.

 

[50-yard-line]

Only if you're willing to take a $10M hit.


His cap is $15M not the $11M others are claiming.

No one's claiming that his CAP is not 15m this year. If you push money, the cap will be larger the next year, ya think?

Divide 21.8 by 2. That's what they're paying him per year. The Pats signed a #2 WR for $11/year, and he was as good LAST YEAR as any of the shiny toy WRs who were signed.

I could see him being traded if Derek Carr really wanted him back - a slight possibility with Josh there.
I could also see him being extended to lower this year's hit.

 

[DaBruinz]

Problem is that when we do use premium picks we get guys like nkeal harry.

Sure there will be busts. But when EVERY other receiver drafted after him is a stud and he barely can play the position it's frustrating.

Not every other receiver draft after Harry was a stud. That's just silliness. Fact is that Brown and Metcalf had warts and their teams were able to accommodate those warts. Claiming that Harry can barely play the position is asinine. He's not in the same category as Metcalf and Brown, but Harry isn't chopped liver like you'd have people believe. He's made some damn good catches. He's been used primarily as a blocker on running plays. Harry was the 4th WR..

(note: Passing snaps taken from PFF. Targets/catches/drops from Pro-football-reference)
Harry - 153 passing snaps - 22 targets - 12 catches - 1 drop (14.37% Targeted)
Meyers - 615 passing snaps- 126 targets - 83 receptions - 3 drops (20.48% targeted)
Bourne - 464 passing snaps - 70 targerts - 55 receptions - 3 drops (15.09% targeted)
Agholor- 474 passing snaps - 64 targets - 47 receptions - 1 drop (13.5% targeted)


Harry was never supposed to be a guy who would beat defenders with his route running. He was a guy who is supposed to go up and get contested balls. The Patriots have NOT used him like that regularly. He made a great catch on a back shoulder throw. He made some other good catches. Where the Patriots have failed to use Harry is the read zone. Back Shoulder fades or back of the end zone jump balls is where they should be using him along with Meyers and Smith. They haven't and that's not his fault..

What IS Harry's fault is his inability to get off the line immediately at the snap. And that IS something he should be working to improve on. If it means working with a track coach or whatever to improve, then that's what it means. It won't improve his route running, but it should improve any timing routes the Patriots use.

 

[goheels22002]

Only if you're willing to take a $10M hit.


His cap is $15M not the $11M others are claiming.

Agholor is a fact of life with the Patriots in 2022. The key there is to get the most out of his skill set. How you do that is not at all apparent to me. Overall, Belichick did a great job last year in free agency and the draft was a success starting with Mac and Barmore. The jury, for me, is still out on Jonnu Smith. Agholor was the one guy that did not come close to the cost of his contract. There are two ways to go - extend him and spread out the $14.5 million he'll make in 2022, or just go with the 2022 deal and find a clear role for him in the offense. Bourne is a much better downfield receiver at less than half the money, and Meyers is a more trusted option on any pass play than Agholor.

I'd like to see the Pats bring in Chris Conley, UFA from the Texans - good receiver out of Georgia, 29 yrs. old 13 y/reception in his career.

 

[Rob0729]

No he can't. They'd save around 5 and eat 10million.

The fact that the Pats could cut Agholor and gain $5 million of cap space by doing so says he can be cut pretty easily. If you cut a player and his cap hit goes down with no future dead money is the definition of being able to be cut easily.

It is more advantageous to trade him because it reduces the dead money cap hit, but he is worth $15 million against the cap now, $10 million if he is cut, and I think only $5 million if he is traded. Any way you look at it, it is easy for the Pats to get rid of him if they choose to.

 

[Rob0729]

Only if you're willing to take a $10M hit.


His cap is $15M not the $11M others are claiming.

You are taking a $15 million cap hit for him now. If you think the $5 million (or $10 million if you can find a trade partner) in cap savings is better used elsewhere, you cut or trade him. They are on the hook for $15 million now.

 

[venecol]

You are taking a $15 million cap hit for him now. If you think the $5 million (or $10 million if you can find a trade partner) in cap savings is better used elsewhere, you cut or trade him. They are on the hook for $15 million now.

Not the same. If you cut him, you still need to replace him with someone who's cap hit would be +$10M of his dead money. So, you'd have to find a WR#1 with a $5M cap hit that's better than Agholor to replace his cap hit. Good luck with that. I think he stays.

 

[Rob0729]

Not the same. If you cut him, you still need to replace him with someone who's cap hit would be +$10M of his dead money. So, you'd have to find a WR#1 with a $5M cap hit that's better than Agholor to replace his cap hit. Good luck with that. I think he stays.

2023 the cap is going to explode. Rumor is the Sunday Ticket streaming contract is going to be 2-3 times the current annual rate that DirecTV is paying for it which is currently $1.5 billion a year and that is on top of the increase in annual revenue from the new TV broadcast deals that kicks in in 2023 (it is increasing from $4.4 billion a year to $10 billion a year starting in 2023).

That means $5 million in cap space this year can get you a very good WR with a long term contract if structured correctly by backloading the deal. Maybe not the top 2-3 free agents, but someone better than Agholor. If they can trade Agholor and get $10 million of cap relief, they might even get one of the top 2-3 with that cap space.

And if the Pats don‘t think Agholor is good enough to be the X, why would the dead money matter? They have cut or traded better players with more dead money that they have decided to move on from.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Agholor was the same guy he's always been on film. Nothing fell off. He's getting the same separation on the same routes. Hopefully in year two chemistry develops bc he's not a different player. We didn't target him as much as the previous year and it looks like he needs 80-90 targets to be that WR2/3. Also target him deep from the slot. Take some shots from there please.

 

[TheRazorsEdge]

4 Wrs I view as realistic early options: Olave, Burks, Williams and Dotson

If not then I'm fine taking a shot on skyy Moore, Slade Bolden or Phillips (UCLA)

 

[Ochmed Jones]

4 Wrs I view as realistic early options: Olave, Burks, Williams and Dotson

If not then I'm fine taking a shot on skyy Moore, Slade Bolden or Phillips (UCLA)

Olave - outside receiver, great route runner, decent hands. Gets open and works the intermediate to deep zones very well.

Burks - physical with some speed. Strong hands. Used all over, but primarily from the slot by Arkansas. Not sure he is a student if the position as he tends to get lost running routes. He only gives max effort if there is a chance he gets the ball.

Williams - elite speed. Plays outside. Owns the deep zone, nobody could cover him in 2021. Coming off acl injury.

Dotson - a little undersized. Can play outside. Hard to tell how good he is since he played with a terrible qb who threw him a lot of hospital balls. Need to see how he runs and he has to answer the courage question!

Robinson of Kentucky - ideal slot receiver/pass catching back for patriots. Can run the ball and catch the ball! Total gadget guy but also an exciting playmaker. This is the weapon we need next season. Watch the last six minutes and overtime of the iowa-Kentucky bowl game.

 

[Triumph]

Hmm...here's a thought: throw him the effing ball more than 4 times a game.

Receivers can't catch what ain't thrown their way, you know, and I saw at least two long plays early in the year where Agholor was wide open - easy TD - and was ignored.

Agholor averaged 3.74 TARGETS/game.
The only WR or TE on the Pats who got more than 5/game was Meyers at 7.4 (125 targets - second was Henry with only 75). In contrast, Mike Giseiki got 112, Cooper Kupp 191, Adams 169, Diggs 164, HIll 159, Kelce 134...

If you're going to run an offense that throws to five different guys (WR and TE, not even including RBs) 5 times a game, do you think ANYONE is going to have the kind of stats that would make you happy?

You can make the argument it's because no one's getting open, but I think it's scheme more than anything else.

And a final note on Agholor: the current FRANCHISE for a WR is $21m+. Agholor makes about half that at 11/per. He is most certainly NOT paid like a #1 WR in the current NFL, particularly since he's on a deal that's only a only a year old, as opposed to being in the end years of a long deal that became outdated, like Gilmore, for example.

Also, the franchise tag for a TE is going to be around 11m this year - and there are a ton of decent TEs coming off rookie deals, so expect that to leap next year and the year after. Both of NE's TEs will be paid middle of the pack money in two years.

Agahlor can me happy by catching the BALL.

His 58% catch rate stinks compared to Henry 66%, Bourne 85% and Meyers 66%. Agahlor saw 6 less passes than Bourne yet Bourne had more receiving yards, TDs and a higher yards per reception. You have a 20% higher chance of completing a pass by throwing to Bourne instead of Jagahlor. Crucial when keeping a drive moving. Im throwing to the guys who can catch.

Bourne exceeded expectations and Agahlor under performed his contract. What else is new? He was run out of Philadelphia because of his stone hands.

 

[50-yard-line]

Agahlor can me happy by catching the BALL.

His 58% catch rate stinks compared to Henry 66%, Bourne 85% and Meyers 66%. Agahlor saw 6 less passes than Bourne yet Bourne had more receiving yards, TDs and a higher yards per reception. You have a 20% higher chance of completing a pass by throwing to Bourne instead of Jagahlor. Crucial when keeping a drive moving. Im throwing to the guys who can catch.

Bourne exceeded expectations and Agahlor under performed his contract. What else is new? He was run out of Philadelphia because of his stone hands.

He dropped ONE pass last year.

SSS - small sample size - on the catch rate, which included several un-catchable deep throws (like the desperation pick in the Buffalo(?) game). Each one of those is worth almost 2%.

And yeah, Bourne is the best receiver on the Patriots, IMO. He was a steal at 3/15. An absolute steal.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Olave - outside receiver, great route runner, decent hands. Gets open and works the intermediate to deep zones very well.

Burks - physical with some speed. Strong hands. Used all over, but primarily from the slot by Arkansas. Not sure he is a student if the position as he tends to get lost running routes. He only gives max effort if there is a chance he gets the ball.

Williams - elite speed. Plays outside. Owns the deep zone, nobody could cover him in 2021. Coming off acl injury.

Dotson - a little undersized. Can play outside. Hard to tell how good he is since he played with a terrible qb who threw him a lot of hospital balls. Need to see how he runs and he has to answer the courage question!

Robinson of Kentucky - ideal slot receiver/pass catching back for patriots. Can run the ball and catch the ball! Total gadget guy but also an exciting playmaker. This is the weapon we need next season. Watch the last six minutes and overtime of the iowa-Kentucky bowl game.

Williams is the elite, deep WR of the group (another Waddle?), but his late-season ACL injury might sidline him for the 2022 season, or if the, say, Patriots, draft him, he will be forced onto the field before fully healed, have an short, lousy season, get re-injured, get demoralize and be villified by the fans, etc. He is a risky choice, but I suspect that some other team will nab him before the Patriots have a chance. If he is still on the board at 21, there will be a lot of teeth gnashing by the fans and maybe in in the Patriots HQ...and the Patriots will trade down, ha!

Actually they will trade down at some point, this I guarantee.

 

[Rob0729]

I agree with regard to Agholor. We could trade him for a 7th if we want him gone. Surely, most posters here think that he can easily be replaced for $10M (NOT!).

Cutting Harry would cost $2M. He can be our #4 or #5 WR for $1.2M of new money. If we don't want him at all, we should trade him for a 7th, Josh is likely to take, but another could step in.

Most likely is that he will be kept through camp and perhaps traded in August if we have an upgrade for the 53 man roster.

For a $10 million cap hit in 2022? Yes, Agholor can be replaced pretty easily for that. You do realize that Agholor only had a $6.9 cap hit last year and his deal was only a two year deal? If he got a five year deal for the same average annual salary, his cap hit would have been considerably less.

For comparison, let's look at Kenny Golladay's contract with the Giants last year. He signed a five year, $72 million contract with the Giants. He, at least as of free agency last year, was a much better player than Agholor and got a contract reflecting that. His cap hit in 2021 was $4.5 million.

Conceivably, if you structured the contract a certain way, you could trade Agholor and get $10 million of cap relief for 2022 and use that cap space to sign Davante Adams with a $10 million cap hit for 2022. He will likely be making $20 million a year under his next contract, but odds are his 2022 cap hit will be around $10 million.

With the salary cap exploding next year, you can sign a lot of backloaded contracts at the current value and have star players who will be absolute bargains in the next few years.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Williams is the elite, deep WR of the group (another Waddle?), but his late-season ACL injury might sidline him for the 2022 season, or if the, say, Patriots, draft him, he will be forced onto the field before fully healed, have an short, lousy season, get re-injured, get demoralize and be villified by the fans, etc. He is a risky choice, but I suspect that some other team will nab him before the Patriots have a chance. If he is still on the board at 21, there will be a lot of teeth gnashing by the fans and maybe in in the Patriots HQ...and the Patriots will trade down, ha!

Actually they will trade down at some point, this I guarantee.

If William’s tear was clean, he could be back 9-10 months after surgery at the earliest.

 

[Rob0729]

If William’s tear was clean, he could be back 9-10 months after surgery at the earliest.

I am no medical expert, but I thought surgery for a partial tear and a complete tear is the same. They have to replace the ACL in either case.

 

[mgteich]

The fact that the Pats could cut Agholor and gain $5 million of cap space by doing so says he can be cut pretty easily. If you cut a player and his cap hit goes down with no future dead money is the definition of being able to be cut easily.

It is more advantageous to trade him because it reduces the dead money cap hit, but he is worth $15 million against the cap now, $10 million if he is cut, and I think only $5 million if he is traded. Any way you look at it, it is easy for the Pats to get rid of him if they choose to.Aru

Yes, if the patriots think that Agholor isn't worth $5M, they can easily cut him.

I strongly disagree with those who think that Agholor isn't worth that.