2021 Patriots Roster Discussion Thread

[Ivan]

Looking at the Pats free agents there are going to be a ton of decisions made about the approach to the rebuild this offseason. I won’t be surprised to see them take a step backwards next season, and a drastic reset of the roster may well be coming. Their best free agents are unfortunately worth more to other teams than they are them, and the top free agents will command big money and not be worth that to a team in the early stages of a rebuild.

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

Looking at the Pats free agents there are going to be a ton of decisions made about the approach to the rebuild this offseason. I won’t be surprised to see them take a step backwards next season, and a drastic reset of the roster may well be coming. Their best free agents are unfortunately worth more to other teams than they are them, and the top free agents will command big money and not be worth that to a team in the early stages of a rebuild.

Unfortunately that will be major steps backwards in 2 consecutive years. This is not going to be a quick rebuild. I think we are looking at 3-5 years.

 

[long distance]

Looking at the Pats free agents there are going to be a ton of decisions made about the approach to the rebuild this offseason. I won’t be surprised to see them take a step backwards next season, and a drastic reset of the roster may well be coming. Their best free agents are unfortunately worth more to other teams than they are them, and the top free agents will command big money and not be worth that to a team in the early stages of a rebuild.

This is OT - so apologies for piling on - but this will be the cheapest FA in BB era (even if they adjust the cap up from what is currently projected) - so it will be the cheapest and best situation to rebuild. That includes Trade Market with several fire sales looming. And Pats are in prime position to take advantage - which should be no surprise.

The question is how much will be invested into this special bargain year esp. if QB situation will remain a Q - and how much will be saved for next SB mode?

In any case it will be a very busy year for @DaBruinz and this thread

 

[Ivan]

This is OT - so apologies for piling on - but this will be the cheapest FA in BB era (even if they adjust the cap up from what is currently projected) - so it will be the cheapest and best situation to rebuild. That includes Trade Market with several fire sales looming. And Pats are in prime position to take advantage - which should be no surprise.

The question is how much will be invested into this special bargain year esp. if QB situation will remain a Q - and how much will be saved for next SB mode?

In any case it will be a very busy year for @DaBruinz and this thread

I basicallly agree with this, but I think some teams will over pay guys like Butler, Wise, and James White, creating more holes to fill. That said if the cap forces a bunch of teams to cut good players the Patriots could make serious hay from that, as one of their real strengths is finding really good veteran players at a low cost. I don’t think we will see them go spend 90 million on a WR, but I could definitely see them finding players like Guy, Van Noy, and Simon turned out to be.

 

[Ivan]

Unfortunately that will be major steps backwards in 2 consecutive years. This is not going to be a quick rebuild. I think we are looking at 3-5 years.

That’s very possible, but I do see the dynamic long distance was alluding to as possibly hastening the rebuild. If salary cap issues force teams to dump a large number of good players on to the open market that’s an area the Pats are really good at, and it could address numerous needs. I don’t think that alone can make them a real contender, but it could address filling numerous other needs they have.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I basicallly agree with this, but I think some teams will over pay guys like Butler, Wise, and James White, creating more holes to fill. That said if the cap forces a bunch of teams to cut good players the Patriots could make serious hay from that, as one of their real strengths is finding really good veteran players at a low cost. I don’t think we will see them go spend 90 million on a WR, but I could definitely see them finding players like Guy, Van Noy, and Simon turned out to be.

Supply of FAs will be UP as more than usual # of team's trim to the cap.
Demand for FAs will be DOWN as cap decreases "unexpectedly" leaving more than usual # of teams somewhat more cap constrained.
Unless one of 31 other GMs irrationally falls in love with one of our guys, offers will be less than in normal cap growth years.

 

[jmt57]

Making this thread as a spinoff to @DaBruinz Roster Transactions Thread, which is limited to strictly facts (actual transactions).

2021/2022 Patriots Roster Transaction Thread

Hopefully, a mod will see fit to sticky this thread so that we don't have to keep searching for it if it goes off the top page and that the 2020/2021 thread will be locked. NOTE: I will update the thread with any special roster rules (Opt Outs , IR Change) the league chooses to implement...

www.patsfans.com

This thread will instead be for roster opinions, speculation, wish lists, etcetera.

 

[mgteich]

I basicallly agree with this, but I think some teams will over pay guys like Butler, Wise, and James White, creating more holes to fill. That said if the cap forces a bunch of teams to cut good players the Patriots could make serious hay from that, as one of their real strengths is finding really good veteran players at a low cost. I don’t think we will see them go spend 90 million on a WR, but I could definitely see them finding players like Guy, Van Noy, and Simon turned out to be.

So, the market will pay too much for our free agents, and too little for other people's free agents?

There is no reason to believe that patriot free agents will be overvalued more than those from other teams, especially not those from our defensive line.

 

[TheRainMaker]

The rebuilding timeline will be determined by how soon they find a QB. If they can't do it, it's going to be tough sledding for BB.

Thuney will be gone. He wants to get paid and I don't think he'll even bother negotiating with BB.

JC Jackson stays.

Andrews maybe stays.

Guy maybe stays.

I think most, if not all, other veteran FA's will leave.

 

[long distance]

More rumours about 2021 Cap adjustment at around 180M. That would still be a drop off of almost 20M from last yr and “cap hell“ for almost half of the league. If this stands and there is no “cap debt“ option (carrying cap debt due to force majeure) - so far unlikely as most owners would also see it as “interest-free loan to players“ - most players and agents will have a very disappointing offseason. Top FAs at prime positions could get close to expected and first few hours of FA could look business as usual - but soon big bargain time will start for the teams.. I guess Bill will have to come to the office a bit earlier than usual

(btw - NE is currently #4 in 2021 cap with almost double the space as #5; they should be at least #3 before FA starts - and they are effectively
#1 in 2022 Cap)

 

[Toofy]

Don't spend big dollars in qb.. get the above average nose tackle, DE, offensive guard, cornerback #2. Get a stud young linebacker for 6-8 million and a decent TE for 6 million. Sign Fitzpatrick and wr 1 (samuels) for 23 million.

Draft the best available players and if we like a qb in first round go ahead. Most likely we whiff on first two rounds , so can take the risk on a qb.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

TV ratings are down. The owners can not be certain of higher TV ratings or full stadiums in 2021. I think the 2022 cap will be depressed as well which depresses this year also. Most teams have escalating cap numbers, so if 2022 does not look, teams need to grapple with 2 to 3 years worth of reduced projections when trying to sign players. For example KC is over the cap in 2021 as Mahomes salary increases $10M, but in 2022 Mahomes salary increases $10M more. So the salary cap issue is not a 2021 issue, it is a 2021, 2022 and 2023 issue. Players have delayed their "day of reckoning" which is coming due from Feb to May 2021.

Thuney will attract interest. Guy, Butler, White and others will attract little interest as they are caught up in the flood of free agents.

I think BB will trade Gilmore. He is purposely at low dollars next year, and there is a large younger FA class of DBs. BB has already figured this all out. He had to manage it "on the fly", meaning as the CV-19 situation developed, but he has managed it well.

Don't fall in love with guys like Butler and White. Guy and Andrews are PTP and will be back. After that who knows. I think JMac will be back on a minimum contract due to his knowledge and versatility. Minimum contract is the key. Slater will be back but at reduced $$s. BB will squeeze all of the mid level guys to find more $$s for a shopping spree.

We will hear a lot of FA signing numbers that are way too high. It is bargain shopping time. 4 or 5 year contracts for 26 or 27 year old players that are VERY reasonable in 2021 and 2022 and escalate after that. BB with so much cap space is the man who can see in the land of the blind.

 

[venecol]

Issue is getting offensive FAs to come here with the QB situation. Hell, we had guys turn us down when Brady was here in 2019, why would they come here now.

Don't see same issue for defensive players due to GOAT coach but who knows. Money talks I guess.

 

[The Brandon Five]

I basicallly agree with this, but I think some teams will over pay guys like Butler, Wise, and James White, creating more holes to fill. That said if the cap forces a bunch of teams to cut good players the Patriots could make serious hay from that, as one of their real strengths is finding really good veteran players at a low cost. I don’t think we will see them go spend 90 million on a WR, but I could definitely see them finding players like Guy, Van Noy, and Simon turned out to be.

Not with a cap that’s $20 million lower

 

[Ring 6]

Looking at the Pats free agents there are going to be a ton of decisions made about the approach to the rebuild this offseason. I won’t be surprised to see them take a step backwards next season, and a drastic reset of the roster may well be coming. Their best free agents are unfortunately worth more to other teams than they are them, and the top free agents will command big money and not be worth that to a team in the early stages of a rebuild.

I totally disagree with this.
They will have over 60 mill in cap space. Why would it be a rebuilding period? They have the resources to fix the team right now.
They will add a huge amount of talent to this roster in one shot. No need for baby steps.

 

[Ring 6]

The rebuilding timeline will be determined by how soon they find a QB. If they can't do it, it's going to be tough sledding for BB.

Thuney will be gone. He wants to get paid and I don't think he'll even bother negotiating with BB.

JC Jackson stays.

Andrews maybe stays.

Guy maybe stays.

I think most, if not all, other veteran FA's will leave.

Many will not be asked back. This is the first opportunity belichick has really ever had to upgrade many areas through free agency.

 

[Ring 6]

Unfortunately that will be major steps backwards in 2 consecutive years. This is not going to be a quick rebuild. I think we are looking at 3-5 years.

Why? They have the resources to fix what they need to this year. They will be major buyers.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Why? They have the resources to fix what they need to this year. They will be major buyers.

I agree completely.

 

[Flash]

Another issue is we don't know whether Hightower comes back. He was one of the key pillars of this defense but after a year away from football, is he still a good player?

 

[Scotty]

I understand we do have cap space for FA's but is it too much to think that we will be the only shoppers in the market ? There are several others with decent cap space (Jaguars to Bengals) that may get in the way. I am not sure if I have this correct but FA starts March 17th so does that mean nothing happens until then re player movements.