2021 NFL Free Agency/Trade News & Discussion: March Edition

[Deus Irae]

Those defensive numbers are absolutely insane considering Vea there best defender and probably the second best tackle in the league played 5 games. Insert him in there and JPP/Shaq are virtually unblockable and the pressure gets there enough for the secondary to be as aggressive as they were in the playoffs

• Vea played in the team's first 5 games. In those 5 games, the Bucs allowed fewer than 300 yards of total offense 3 times.
• Vea did not play in the team's last 11 games. In those 5 games, the Bucs allowed fewer than 300 yards of total offense 3 times.

So, with Vea, they were holding teams to under 300 yards a game 60% of the time and, without Vea, they were holding teams to under 300 yards a game just 27% of the time. Now, there are questions of context and sample size, and correlation does not necessarily prove causation, but there's no question that the defense was stingier in terms of yardage surrendered before Vea got injured.


Also of note is that, in the 5 games with Vea on the field, the highest rushing total the Bucs allowed was 87 yards (against the panthers). Once Vea went down, the Bucs allowed 87 or more rushing yards in 6 of the last 11 games.


Furthermore, in 3 of those first 5 games, the Bucs didn't even allow 50 yards rushing. In the next 11 games, the Bucs held their opponents to fewer than 50 yards rushing 2 times.


To be continued...

 

[Deus Irae]

...Continuing from above:


What I find to be more interesting is the play of the offense. While people correctly note that it was inconsistent, it's interesting to actually look at the numbers. For example, in the regular season, the Bucs scored 30+ points in 8 of their 16 games. They also scored 30+ points in all 4 playoff games. They were the league's #3 scoring team, and they scored under 20 points only twice all season (19 against the Bears and 3 in the second game against the Saints). But, of the top 10 scoring teams, only one (Saints) didn't have any games scoring fewer than 20 points. In fact, in 3 of the team's 5 losses, the points scored were 23, 24, and 24.

Really, what seems to have been the "problem" was a stretch of games against good teams where the Bucs committed multiple turnovers. The 3 INT game against the Saints (rematch), and the pair of 2 INT game, against the Rams and Chiefs, were really what ended up coloring the perception of the offense's regular season.

 

[carmelo15]

Hoping not


I’d rather have Dugger.
Now Winfield is better than Jordan Richards so there’s that.
You could argue he was the weak link in that secondary.

Y’all serious with the Winfield hate lol embarrassing

 

[Lagaffe_07]

Y’all serious with the Winfield hate lol embarrassing

Winfield will be a better player than Dugger. He already is. And I’m not saying that Dugger will not be a good player

 

[Lagaffe_07]

Deleted double post

 

[carmelo15]

...Continuing from above:


What I find to be more interesting is the play of the offense. While people correctly note that it was inconsistent, it's interesting to actually look at the numbers. For example, in the regular season, the Bucs scored 30+ points in 8 of their 16 games. They also scored 30+ points in all 4 playoff games. They were the league's #3 scoring team, and they scored under 20 points only twice all season (19 against the Bears and 3 in the second game against the Saints). But, of the top 10 scoring teams, only one (Saints) didn't have any games scoring fewer than 20 points. In fact, in 3 of the team's 5 losses, the points scored were 23, 24, and 24.

Really, what seems to have been the "problem" was a stretch of games against good teams where the Bucs committed multiple turnovers. The 3 INT game against the Saints (rematch), and the pair of 2 INT game, against the Rams and Chiefs, were really what ended up coloring the perception of the offense's regular season.

The games where they failed was the stretch that Capps was out and Leftwich/Arians were going deep on every down. The only exception was on first down where they ran it to set up 2nd and 8 every single drive. The offer seems will be better and if they get AB back it’s checkmate.

• Vea played in the team's first 5 games. In those 5 games, the Bucs allowed fewer than 300 yards of total offense 3 times.
• Vea did not play in the team's last 11 games. In those 5 games, the Bucs allowed fewer than 300 yards of total offense 3 times.

So, with Vea, they were holding teams to under 300 yards a game 60% of the time and, without Vea, they were holding teams to under 300 yards a game just 27% of the time. Now, there are questions of context and sample size, and correlation does not necessarily prove causation, but there's no question that the defense was stingier in terms of yardage surrendered before Vea got injured.


Also of note is that, in the 5 games with Vea on the field, the highest rushing total the Bucs allowed was 87 yards (against the panthers). Once Vea went down, the Bucs allowed 87 or more rushing yards in 6 of the last 11 games.


Furthermore, in 3 of those first 5 games, the Bucs didn't even allow 50 yards rushing. In the next 11 games, the Bucs held their opponents to fewer than 50 yards rushing 2 times.


To be continued...

It’s crazy how good Vea is and this includes on passing downs as well running on them isn’t an option. The guys that are praying for Tampa’s downfall will look foolish again as they did from September to last month

 

[thecore762]

I am glad Kraft gave BB some money to play with this off-season after the terrible season we had last year.
If covid gets under control then the stadiums will be back at full capacity by the start of the season.
We now truly need a starting caliber QB because I just don’t trust Cam. While he can be entertaining to watch at times we have seen the terrible plays he made throughout the season, especially during the middle of the season.

 

[slash83]

What’s the plan for today, trade for Russ, Watson?

 

[BTTA]

For me, Hightower counts.

The post that I responded to didn't consider Hightower as part of the team.

Yeah, I really want to see him back stronger, after a year to rest his body. But I'm just not comfortable thinking that way, for some reason.
Would love to see them draft his understudy this year.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

Lions Plan to release Danny Shelton.

 

[Give Kraft A Hand]

I don't think this team is out on Andrews or KVN. I do think they're out on a #1 wide receiver. Jonnu is going to be the #1 here. I don't think its going to work but if they do add Andrews and KVN they are probably a playoff team.

 

[long distance]

Damn really wanted Tomlinson

This is near top of the market 1y deal. Tomlinson's manager really did a great job (and Tomlinson on the field as well)
Its basically a 1y/16M+ deal when the actual Franchise tag for DL was 13.3M !
Projections were 10-13M apy.

Depending on whats that 2nd yr about can enter FA again next yr and cash in even more on a better market (or via trade)

 

[venecol]

You got to stop. Prescott above average and Cam is Elite??? You surely are making this up. If Cam is Elite Prescott is top 10 all time. Did make me chuckle the first couple of times. But people are going to start taking you serious.

Those are PFF grades not mine, but I agree with you.

I can only assume that since these are Free Agency grades, they include the contract amounts and maybe they feel the Cam deal at $5M was a really good deal for Pats and that the Dak monster deal was just above avg for Dallas.

 

[50-yard-line]

Yea, but Trubisky over Jimmy? Why don't Pats just go after Trubisky then. Idk, not buying it.

Because BB wants Jimmy back, I guess.

And SF is making it pretty clear they're not happy with him - they paid him top dollars and he hasn't been on the field nearly enough. SF isn't in rebuild: they're ready now to get to the show. But they need a QB to manage the games and stay on the field.

 

[Lagaffe_07]

Because BB wants Jimmy back, I guess.

And SF is making it pretty clear they're not happy with him - they paid him top dollars and he hasn't been on the field nearly enough. SF isn't in rebuild: they're ready now to get to the show. But they need a QB to manage the games and stay on the field.

I think the Trubiskey to the 49ers rumor will mean Jimmy is coming back is an invention of Pats fan.

the 49ers probably view Trubisky as Jimmy’s backup in case Jimmy get injured. They need a decent option. The 49ers could be nervous about Jimmy availability but i don’t think it is a coincidence that SF is 22-8 with Jimmy on the field and 7-26 without.

 

[Ross12]

I think the Trubiskey to the 49ers rumor will mean Jimmy is coming back is an invention of Pats fan.

the 49ers probably view Trubisky as Jimmy’s backup in case Jimmy get injured. They need a decent option. The 49ers could be nervous about Jimmy availability but i don’t think it is a coincidence that SF is 22-8 with Jimmy on the field and 7-26 without.

It's certainly possible, but that probably means >$30M spent on QBs this year. They have other holes.

 

[RobertWeathers]

This is near top of the market 1y deal. Tomlinson's manager really did a great job (and Tomlinson on the field as well)
Its basically a 1y/16M+ deal when the actual Franchise tag for DL was 13.3M !
Projections were 10-13M apy.

Depending on whats that 2nd yr about can enter FA again next yr and cash in even more on a better market (or via trade)

Really curious to see what Butler will get. Pats clearly think his ask is a bit too high right now. Same with Guy

 

[venecol]

It's certainly possible, but that probably means >$30M spent on QBs this year. They have other holes.

Do you think if Jimmy is cut, there will be a market for him? Will other teams go after him?

 

[luuked]

Reiss being pretty candid.

"In the worst-case scenario, they have overthought it, strayed too far from their draft-and-develop roots by committing too much to non-homegrown players, and will ultimately pay a similar price that other teams who also "won" free agency in March have in past years."

Outside maybe Agholor I am really not sure to which of the signings this applies.


Smith and Judon are great fits and are entering their prime. This is exactly what they did in 2017 (the last time we had money) when they signed Gilmore to a market level deal.

Anderson and Godchaux are players that can help right away at one of the biggest holes they had last year: the run defense. Of course we could have gone the draft way and try to develop a player but how would that plug that hole for '21 ?

Bourne and Mills are vintage Patriots FA moves except they happened on day 1 instead of 2 weeks in. Mills is incredibly versatile and will replace both JMac and Brooks on the roster. Bourne seems like the kind of WR that could be a chain mover as a short/intermediate option in a McDaniels offense and maybe an Edelman successor.

To me Agholor is really the only one that sticks out as a potential risk depending on the contract structure. But even then I at least understand the need and what he brings to the table.

 

[venecol]

Wrong. This team is very important to me. I have not missed a play of a game in over 20 years. I come here because it is important to me. I don’t come here to make jokes with strangers.
If it’s not important to you why are you wasting so much time posting here? Sorbs your time on something important to you. Life is short.

I was going to send the Pats a letter nominating you for "fan of the decade," but I remembered you going full ****** in your meltdown saying "BB has demensia." Lmao, Mr. Positive.

You really need to work on reading comprehension and take that more seriously, so you can improve your interactions with strangers on a football forum.