2019 Big Boards

[WaterfallJumper]

Pff’s Top 50

PFF's Top-50 Big Board for the 2019 NFL Draft | NFL Draft news and analysis | Pro Football Focus

Max Scharping at 50. Arcega-Whiteside at 23. Ferrell, Montez Sweat and Rashan Gary all outside the top 32.

Scharping and JJAW are good football players. But Ferrell and Sweat deserve to be top 20. I'm not sure how they're grading them if they come away thinking those players are anything other than 1st round locks. PFF is strange for me; sometimes I think they're dead on, but other times their takes make me think that their grading scale is just broken, or their graders are poor.

EDIT: This is probably my favorite stat of the draft:

33. CB DAVID LONG, MICHIGAN
Long allowed all of 18 catches on 595 coverage snaps in his entire college career at Michigan

 

[SBLIII]

I think Arcega Whiteside is good but 1st round is crazy talk to me.

 

[SBLIII]

They agree with me regarding David Long, AJ Brown and Darnell Savage though

 

[BobDigital]

Pff’s Top 50

PFF's Top-50 Big Board for the 2019 NFL Draft | NFL Draft news and analysis | Pro Football Focus

Max Scharping at 50. Arcega-Whiteside at 23. Ferrell, Montez Sweat and Rashan Gary all outside the top 32.

PFF is one of my favorite resources but they aren't perfect. They weight their rankings mostly on their own brand of stats, which are based on judgement calls.

Even if player scores high and statistically wins the vast majority of plays it may be doing things that won't work at the next level. In the end you need to do the eye ball test and try to figure out what you believe will translate and what won't just like everyone else.

That being said I enjoy the context they give.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Does this Pats roster have significant weaknesses?

We lost Brown OT, Flowers DE, Gronk TE, Hogan WR, Patterson WR/KR.

Arguably Wynn might be able to step in for Brown at LT and Bennett replaces Flowers at DE.

That means our only really big holes are at WR and TE.

We could stand to improve our lines, always, but who could be available in the draft?

Unit by unit:

In 2018 Pats offense averaged 393 yards per game. good for 5th overall.
Rushing 2,037 yards 5th in the NFL and Michel should only get better with time.
Passing 4,258 yards 8th overall. But how will the offense do without Gronk and Hogan?

Defensively Pats gave up 359 yards per game good for 12th and 20.3 ppg good for 7th.

What can we do to improve this unit?
Passing yards 3,943 11th but yards per pass of 6.9 was good for 5th in the NFL. Secondary looked solid.
Rushing yards 1,803 11th which looks decent but yards per rush 4.9 tied for 27th in the NFL. This area could use shoring up.

In summary looking at the departures and the performance of our units in 2018, we need help on offense in the receiving game. Replacing Gronk at TE is a big need, adding a play stretching Wr is still a need since we never got a Cooks replacement in 2018.

On defense we need better run stuffing. It looks like teams had to 'give up' on the run at times which is why the total run yardage looks decent even though the run average given up is bottom tier, 27th position in the NFL. Adding a strong run stuffing DL or sideline to sideline linebacker could improve this area of performance in 2019.

As for ST, BB has already signed a couple of ST aces to help that area of the game. It wouldn't surprise me if we drafted a couple of STers in rounds 5-7 to help out those units. Maybe in addition to gunners we go for a KR or PR in the late rounds. With Allen locked up, P is not a need. But maybe we draft a K to push or replace Gostkowski?

 

[manxman2601]

I think Arcega Whiteside is good but 1st round is crazy talk to me.

It’s interesting that he’s getting very little buzz. Presumably because he didn’t test at the combine.

 

[mgteich]

It’s interesting that he’s getting very little buzz. Presumably because he didn’t test at the combine.

Perhaps there will be more buzz after his pro day on Thursday.

 

[captain stone]

Does this Pats roster have significant weaknesses?

Defensive End remains a position of Significant weakness.

 

[SBLIII]

Defensive End remains a position of Significant weakness.

It won't prevent us from winning the SB.

 

[patchick]

That means our only really big holes are at WR and TE.

The thing is, those are more than just normal holes, they're pretty much yawning chasms that eclipse other more normal needs, like the lack of a swing tackle.

I can't ever remember the Patriots entering the draft with such huge needs. They usually try to put together a fairly complete roster so they can take the draft as it comes and not be pushed to position-based desperation. And to be fair, they did try at WR--apparently making a serious play for every major trade and FA target, with no success. Plus they probably hoped for a Gronk return. This is not where they wanted to be, and that makes this year's draft uncharted waters.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Defensive End remains a position of Significant weakness.

I tend to agree. I just don't know where the upgrade comes from. Look at my guess for an early depth chart, and tell me where a drafted player slots in to the mix. I don't see a lot to make me hopeful (unless we trade up for one of the top guys).

Bennett Wise Simon Rivers Davis

 

[captain stone]

I tend to agree. I just don't know where the upgrade comes from. Look at my guess for an early depth chart, and tell me where a drafted player slots in to the mix. I don't see a lot to make me hopeful (unless we trade up for one of the top guys).

Bennett Wise Simon Rivers Davis

The right Day 2 guy could slot immediately behind Bennett, Wise & Simon (who can also take snaps off-the-ball too). Rivers & Davis are at this stage of their "careers" nothing more than camp competition. Hell, the pair of Bennett & Wise could also stand an upgrade.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

The right Day 2 guy could slot immediately behind Bennett, Wise & Simon (who can also take snaps off-the-ball too). Rivers & Davis are at this stage of their "careers" nothing more than camp competition. Hell, the pair of Bennett & Wise could also stand an upgrade.

Again, I don't disagree with the concept that they could be upgraded; I'm asking about who and when in more concrete terms. Which player do you take at which draft slot who is a clear upgrade to the top two or three?

 

[manxman2601]

The thing is, those are more than just normal holes, they're pretty much yawning chasms that eclipse other more normal needs, like the lack of a swing tackle.

I can't ever remember the Patriots entering the draft with such huge needs. They usually try to put together a fairly complete roster so they can take the draft as it comes and not be pushed to position-based desperation. And to be fair, they did try at WR--apparently making a serious play for every major trade and FA target, with no success. Plus they probably hoped for a Gronk return. This is not where they wanted to be, and that makes this year's draft uncharted waters.

The planning seems to have been poor. I can only imagine that’s down to the difficult cap position they’ve been in and Gronk’s poor timing of his retirement. It’s been a disappointing off-season.

 

[captain stone]

Again, I don't disagree with the concept that they could be upgraded; I'm asking about who and when in more concrete terms. Which player do you take at which draft slot who is a clear upgrade to the top two or three?

If one of Josh Allen, Bosa, Burns, Ferrell, Gary & Sweat are available at 32, then I grab him ahead of Anybody not named Hockenson and maybe Tillery...
Knowing the extreme unlikeliness of that happening, I will then hope that one of Zach Allen, Collier, Ferguson, Joe Jackson, Steve Nelson & The Omenihu are available at 56, depending on the TE, WR & OT situations.

I would Not wait longer than 73 to draft a DE...and I don't feel it's a stretch to claim that Any of the above dozen would be an Immediate upgrade from Rivers & Keonte Davis, and would be able to, by Thanksgiving at the latest, provide enough value on 3rd down to allow Wise to move closer to Center on passing downs....John Simon meanwhile could then roam, similar to Ninkovich, all around the edges of the box, either at or off the LOS.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

If one of Josh Allen, Bosa, Burns, Ferrell, Gary & Sweat are available at 32, then I grab him ahead of Anybody not named Hockenson and maybe Tillery...
Knowing the extreme unlikeliness of that happening, I will then hope that one of Zach Allen, Collier, Ferguson, Joe Jackson, Steve Nelson & The Omenihu are available at 56, depending on the TE, WR & OT situations.

I would Not wait longer than 73 to draft a DE...and I don't feel it's a stretch to claim that Any of the above dozen would be an Immediate upgrade from Rivers & Keonte Davis, and would be able to, by Thanksgiving at the latest, provide enough value on 3rd down to allow Wise to move closer to Center on passing downs....John Simon meanwhile could then roam, similar to Ninkovich, all around the edges of the box, either at or off the LOS.

This mirrors my thought process very closely, which is what leads me to believe we'll go OL / TE / WR early. The only way to get one of the Allen / Ferrell / Gary / Sweat crew is to trade up, and that probably requires giving up at least a 2nd rounder. I'd be fine with that if, say, Ferrell fell to 21 and we traded with the Seahawks. I have a tough time believing any of the top names will last past 20 or 25, though.

Zach Allen seems like the closest thing to a sure starter of the next tier, although he may be somewhat limited in terms of upside. I'd take him at 56 if he makes it. The rest of them seem like they need some time to transition to the NFL, or at least they'll be confined to 3rd down pass rushers only. I like all the names you listed, but probably not before 64 or 73, because I think they're going to have a longer path to starting vs other positions such as TE or WR, who may be counted on right away.

Does that make more sense? I'm not sure I was clear earlier. I want to use higher draft picks on more sure fire starters, and I don't see any of them in that second tier of DL or EDGE players other than perhaps Allen. I do at TE / WR / OL.

 

[captain stone]

...I want to use higher draft picks on more sure fire starters, and I don't see any of them in that second tier of DL or EDGE players other than perhaps Allen. I do at TE / WR / OL.

Which somewhat realistic options at OL will you be watching at 56/64/73? The only ones I really like in that range, besides Lindstrom obviously, are Ty Howard, Mike Jordan, Bobby Evans & Elgton Jenkins.

 

[SBLIII]

If the right edge player is there, take him but don't reach. We can get away with a JAG at edge but more than at TE, WR or DT. Or even OT.

The priority needs to be weapons and get the run defense right.

 

[manxman2601]

In Daniel Jeremiah’s latest top 50, he gives Dexter Lawrence a 7 place boost up to 25. I can’t think that there’s any reason to do that except that he’s hearing from the teams that Lawrence is liked more than some of the other rankings do. In other words, I doubt he’s falling very far out of the 1st round, if at all.

 

[patsinthesnow]

In Daniel Jeremiah’s latest top 50, he gives Dexter Lawrence a 7 place boost up to 25. I can’t think that there’s any reason to do that except that he’s hearing from the teams that Lawrence is liked more than some of the other rankings do. In other words, I doubt he’s falling very far out of the 1st round, if at all.

In addition to that:





Louis Riddick also RTed Doug Farrar saying he agreed 100% that Lawrence is better than Quinnen Williams...(he deleted the tweet).