2017 Patriots Defense

[Biffins]

The performance really doesn't make sense. This is the same personnel as last year except you replace logan ryan with gilmore which should be an upgrade. This secondary should be better. I think they will right the ship

You forgot Ninko, Sheard, Long...........?

 

[SammyBlueCat]

The coaches need to bring red pen lazer lights to practice.

 

[MainePatsFan26]

Preseason record has zero predictive value toward regular season. The best team in franchise history infamously went 1-3 and got smoked by both Cincy and Jax, respectively, to close their preseason.

There is no evidence for the rest of your argument as well. In the all-important 3rd game, NE's starters dominated an apparently decent Detroit team, even after losing Julian.

While they may have gone 1-3 and done well in the past, this year's iteration did not play consistent football this preseason compared to the average Patriots preseason. That's an opinion and feel free to disagree - but let's not talk about evidence when it comes down to a subjective analysis of effort. It is true they dominated Detroit, but the starters struggled regularly throughout other games. The defense, in particular, got torched regularly this preseason and that poor play translated to the Kansas City and Texans games.

I'm honestly confused about your logic in regards to your own points. If preseason play has zero predictive value, then why are you even referencing their preseason performance in game 3? If you cite game 3's great play by the starters to prove that preseason play has zero predictive value because of their struggles against the Chiefs and Texans, then you are ignoring the rest of the sample: games 1, 2, and 4. And if you are citing game 3's great play because it echoes their great play against the Chiefs and Texans, then (a) you didn't see the same defensive and offensive line struggles that I did in those games and (b) you are saying the preseason does have some predictive value. Overall, saying the preseason can have no predictive value is a stretch when there is a slight degree of carryover. Here is an article with facts that demonstrate that preseason records do have a statistically significant predictive value on how teams fare: The NFL preseason matters a little more than you think

My primary point was that the Patriots lacked the "IT" factor they usually have from game to game. They looked winded and apathetic throughout the preseason and into week 1. The Chiefs game was a needed wakeup call and the Texans game only reinforces that there is much to be done on defense.

 

[Uptown]

I believe the issues are mostly communication & gap control issues. These are correctable & will be fixed. I actually think this can be a positive for the D. By that, I mean that at least these lessons are being learned very early in the season. Hopefully, they can turn the corner & become as cohesive as last years’ D.

 

[stinkypete]

We felt the same way about the 2016 defense this time last year, and that worked out ok. The 2017 version is not going to match the success of the 2016 defense due to player losses on the edge and a tougher slate of opponents, but the strength of the secondary makes it good enough to contend.

 

[jah]

We felt the same way about the 2016 defense this time last year, and that worked out ok. The 2017 version is not going to match the success of the 2016 defense due to player losses on the edge and a tougher slate of opponents, but the strength of the secondary makes it good enough to contend.

First 3 weeks of 2016 points allowed: 21, 24 (most in garbage time), 0

First 3 weeks of 2017 points allowed: 42, 20, 33 (26 allowed by defense)

I certainly felt differently about the defense this time last year vs now.

 

[Kontradiction]

I believe the issues are mostly communication & gap control issues. These are correctable & will be fixed. I actually think this can be a positive for the D. By that, I mean that at least these lessons are being learned very early in the season. Hopefully, they can turn the corner & become as cohesive as last years’ D.

Those communication issues come from new players in big roles at every level of the defense. For example:

DL: Wise, Butler
LB: Marsh (playing without Hightower last week)
Secondary: Gilmore

That's 4 out of 11 "starters" that are only three weeks into playing the hardest defense in the NFL. They need more time before conclusions can be drawn. Like I said, if the defense still looks like this at the end of October, when they're supposed to be gelling, then it is time to worry about that unit.

 

[pazrul72]

So I was working Sunday and didn’t get to watch the game until this morning. Just looking at the box score I was obviously like WTF they gave up 33 to the TEXANS? Holy banana bat brains is the defense bad. Having watched it I would now argue that it was more good play from the Texans (Watson in particular looked really good extending plays and making crazy throws) then bad play from the defense. Most catches were contested, there was a man in the QB’s face more often then not, and until the 4th when everyone was gassed the run game was mostly bottled up. Sometimes you have to tip your cap to the other guys they get paid too. It’s a small thing but potentially something to build off, those two RZ stands to end the game were huge and the only reason Brady was able to perform his magic so IMO this defense isn’t totally hopeless.

One thing I have noticed now in all three games is more motion, fakes, and reverse action from opposing offenses. I wonder if they saw something on film or found someone to attack that bites too hard or gets confused by it. Communication and making sure everyone gets their guy has clearly been an issue but I have faith Matt and Bill will clean it up. It still confuses me how an apparent upgrade in talent went from being the best D in the NFL to the worst. Still at least a month away from the panic button but definitely something to be concerned about until the signs of improvement start showing up on the stat sheet. It was a much better effort then KC and as long as they continue to do their best I won’t give them too much grief as it is still so early with a small sample size. Weird things can happen in short time frames

 

[Oswlek]

If preseason play has zero predictive value, then why are you even referencing their preseason performance in game 3?

Because I never said "preseason play", I said "preseason record". These are not synonymous and barely even comparable.

you didn't see the same defensive and offensive line struggles that I did in those games

I'm glad you mentioned this example because it illustrates my point perfectly. NE's offensive line struggling in the preseason is not unusual, it's virtually a rite of passage. You are taking a perfectly normal occurence and attributing post hoc significance to it based on events that followed.... which makes it a great representative of your entire post.

 

[DSting]

A few observations after watching some coaches film. I didn't watch all of the game, but when the DBs were in man coverage, they were very competitive and tight. Playing zone, not so much. When Watson got away, the DTs stayed home (generally played very well, really like Butler), but the DEs kept going very wide. I'm sure they were cautioned against inside moves so they could contain QB, but the OTs pushed them wide and Watson was able to run. When DBs are in man, they're not watching a QB run--backs to the play. More zone later to compensate. DBs looked to be very concerned with getting beaten deep, they kept giving a step or two on every fake and allowing space underneath. Gilmore looked great in run support, aggressive and attacked lead blocker fearlessly.
The only thing that really stood out to me was DE play--could be a lack of experience and positioning. Overall, despite giving up so many yards and points, I liked this defensive effort. This D can be good if they figure out DE.

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

They’ve got three “pro bowlers” in the secondary who need to get it together.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

This team could use another DE/ OLB. Someone that can cover in space. Whose our best LB in space?

 

[maineman209]

One thing I have noticed now in all three games is more motion, fakes, and reverse action from opposing offenses. I wonder if they saw something on film or found someone to attack that bites too hard or gets confused by it.

It could be something that opposing OCs saw on tape that's specific to the current Pats' defense, although KC wouldn't have had much tape to look at.

Alternatively, it could be something that these three particular teams do anyway, or it could be something that's trending in NFL offenses.

In any case, I hope, and kind of expect, that the amount of confusion and communications disruptions that such plays may have been causing with the Pats' D will incrementally decline over the next 2-3 weeks. If it doesn't, THEN I'll start thinking about stocking up on extra toilet paper.

 

[captain stone]

...It still confuses me how an apparent upgrade in talent went from being the best D in the NFL to the worst...

They weren't really "the best" defense last year either.

 

[jah]

They weren't really "the best" defense last year either.

You're definitely right, but they were still top 5-10 IMO. The eye test is ******** but they did much better at that last year. I don't think this team is winning any games with a score of 16-3.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

You forgot Ninko, Sheard, Long...........?

Don’t forget about Ryan..

 

[pazrul72]

They weren't really "the best" defense last year either.

What's the defense's number one job? To keep the other team off the scoreboard. Who did that better then anyone else last year? The patriots. Best defense in the league.

 

[supafly]

We felt the same way about the 2016 defense this time last year, and that worked out ok.

Yeah, I don't think that happened quite the way you're remembering it, Pete.

Through 3 games last year:

15 ppg average
88 rushing yards average
275 passing yards average

It wasn't great, but I don't think it was nearly as bad as this year has been, at least thus far.

 

[Joey007]

I'm actually moving toward cautious optimism at DE. Flowers, Wise and Butler all look legit. The depth and talent could still definitely be improved upon, and the prospect of relying on a rookie to sustain Wise-type production worries me because I don't think you can count on it, though. I agree that LB is a problem, even when Hightower gets back I'm not sure it'll be settled.

The guy who has really interested me so far is Marsh. I think he will develop a solid niche as the year goes on. We haven't seen speed like that off the edge in a while. You can tell he came from Seattle.

 

[Joey007]

Yeah, I don't think that happened quite the way you're remembering it, Pete.

Through 3 games last year:

15 ppg average
88 rushing yards average
275 passing yards average

It wasn't great, but I don't think it was nearly as bad as this year has been, at least thus far.

Take out one bad half vs. Miami, and a play in Arizona where David Johnson looked like Jesus, and our defense looked pretty damn good through the first three games.