mgcolby
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I did this two years ago and it went well. The old thread is linked below, if you want to get a feel for what it is. Basically this a system I have worked on over the past several years that has done surprisingly well. In 2013 it went 106-80-7 ATS 119 - 75 Straight Up.
Office pool picker | Page 3 | New England Patriots Forums - PatsFans.com Patriots Fan Messageboard
So it is back. What is it? It is a score predictor, all scores are predicted on a combination of stats from the last 4 games played by each team. Which is why I toss it out around week 5. I actually cheat a bit and start using it week 4 but I don't count that in the season record good or bad. I will post last weeks results and then this weeks predictions. I do enter a spread, this year I am using the opening line shown on thespread.com. I do not shop the points to gain an edge etc...I use the opening line and stick with it for consistancy. Fellow window shoppers would probably do better by finding better lines.
What the predictor does not account for directly: Injuries, Weather, Turnovers, Coaching staff changes, referees, referees that know the batted ball rule etc.... It solely looks at a subset of stats from each team's last 4 games played. In an indirect way it will account for all of those things, well maybe not the refs but...
Any way if you have any questions feel free to ask.
Week 4 final to give you an idea, went 9-6 ATS with only 3 games of data.
How this works:
Predicted Score = Predicted score for each team
Predicted Spread = Difference between the two predicted scores
Office pool picker | Page 3 | New England Patriots Forums - PatsFans.com Patriots Fan Messageboard
So it is back. What is it? It is a score predictor, all scores are predicted on a combination of stats from the last 4 games played by each team. Which is why I toss it out around week 5. I actually cheat a bit and start using it week 4 but I don't count that in the season record good or bad. I will post last weeks results and then this weeks predictions. I do enter a spread, this year I am using the opening line shown on thespread.com. I do not shop the points to gain an edge etc...I use the opening line and stick with it for consistancy. Fellow window shoppers would probably do better by finding better lines.
What the predictor does not account for directly: Injuries, Weather, Turnovers, Coaching staff changes, referees, referees that know the batted ball rule etc.... It solely looks at a subset of stats from each team's last 4 games played. In an indirect way it will account for all of those things, well maybe not the refs but...
Any way if you have any questions feel free to ask.
Week 4 final to give you an idea, went 9-6 ATS with only 3 games of data.
How this works:
Predicted Score = Predicted score for each team
Predicted Spread = Difference between the two predicted scores
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