Assumptions:
- Revis and McCourty get locked up long term
- Pats get 3rd and 6th round comp picks.
- Pats pick in the 28-32 range.
- Our extra 4th round pick from Tampa Bay is in the top half of the round.
- Pats play a hybrid defense alternating between a 3-4/4-3 Under/5-2 in base and playing about 2/3 of the snaps in sub packages.
- Pats use a lot of jumbo line packages and multiple TE sets.
*** Trade: Pats trade their 1st round pick for 2nd and 3rd round picks.
2a. Arik Armstead, DE/DT, Oregon. 6'7" 296#. Currently NFLDraftScout #45.
Beast! Poetic irony - the Pats draft Arik Armstead to play the role that they had hoped his older brother Armond would play. Armstead is a huge, athletic player who can play 3-4 DE, 4-3 Under LDE, and DT in 4 man or larger fronts. He's still a bit raw, but has a ton of versatility, athleticism and upside. Carl Davis (#24) could be an option if he drops. Rice DT Christian Covington (#57) is an intriguing option.
2b. Bernardrick McKinney, LB, Mississippi St. 6' 4 1/2" 245#. Currently NFLDraftScout #55.
Beast! A Collinesque LB who can play all over the field, inside or out. Bud Dupree (62) and Eric Striker (#67) also get consideration.
3a. Cody Prewitt, S, Mississippi. 6'2" 212#. Currently NFL DraftScout #81.
Beast! Prewitt is exactly what the Pats' secondary needs to be elite - an enforcer with coverage skills. He will be our Kam Chancellor, with better coverage skills. Durrell Eskridge (6'3" 203#, #76) would also be a nice fit.
3b. Kasen Williams, WR, Washington. 6'2" 216#. Currently NFL DraftScout #61.
Stud Horse! Williams is a big, physical split end who can move the chains. He has the ability to go over the middle and to go up for the ball. With Danny Amendola not showing enough to this point to justify a 3rd year on his contract, the Pats could do to get bigger and more physical at WR.
3c (comp). Corey Robinson, OT, South Carolina. 6'7" 340#. Currently NFL DraftScout #97.
Stud Horse! Robinson is a mammoth of a man. Along with Cam Fleming, he will give the Pats some depth at tackle behind Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer.
4a. Laken Tomlinson, OG, Duke. 6'3" 320#. Currently NFL DraftScout #123.
Stud Horse! Tomlinson is a big, physical guard who is good value at this point. He is a power player but has good quickness and agility for his size, and fairly quick feet. He is smart (a Dukie and a 2-time all-ACC academic selection), and also some experience playing center. Arie Kouandjio or Josue Matias could be options here if they slip.
4b. Shaquille Riddick, DE/OLB, West Virginia. 6'5" 242. Currently NFL DraftScout #263.
Sleeper! JUCO transfer with a ton of athleticism and upside. Needs to get stronger to play on the line, but has the fluidity to play in space and some nice burst to his game. Pats load up on edge players with some versatility.
5. Clive Walford, TE, Miami. 6'4" 263. Currently NFL DraftScout #173.
Stud Horse! Walford has been a bit inconsistent, but he is a true double-threat TE who can be effective as a blocker or as a receiving option. He would be a huge upgrade over Michael Hoomanwanui.
6a. Michael Dyer, RB, Louisville. 5'9" 213#. Currently NFL DraftScout #180.
Fallen Beast! Stevan Ridley is likely to move on after 2013. The Pats have Tyler Gaffney coming off of IR, but will need to add another back or two for competition and roster depth. BB has shown that he doesn't value the RB position terribly highly, and that he is content to find late round/UDFA values (Shane Vereen and Ridley excepted). Michael Dyer is a very talented back who has had off-field issues, but he may be worth taking a chance on. He wasn't used much as a receiver at Auburn, but he has the basic skills, and could develop into a poor man's Doug Martin.
6b (comp). Detrick Bonner, DB, Virginia Tech. 6' 194#. Currently NFL DraftScout #208.
Sleeper! Virginia Tech has a history of producing good DBs. Bonner is kind of a poor man's Kyle Fuller, a guy with 30 games starting experience prior to this season who has played a variety of positions, form the "whip" hybrid LB/S position to corner to safety. He is reportedly very strong for his size and has a 38" VJ. You can never have enough depth at DB.
Early 2015 Roster:
QB(2): Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo
RB(4): Shane Vereen, James White, Tyler Gaffney, Michael Dyer. Vereen gets an extension, Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden move on.
FB/H-Back(1): James Develin
TE(3): Rob Gronkowski, Tim Wright, Clive Walford. Walford has much more upside than Michael Hoomanawanui.
WR(5): Julian Edelman, Aaron Dobson Dobson, Kasen Williams, Kenbrell Thompkins, Brandon LaFell. Danny Amendola gets the boot.
OT(4): Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Cameron Fleming, Corey Robinson. huge OL; Solder gets an extension.
OG/C (5): Marcus Cannon, Bryan Stork, Jordan Devey, Dan Connolly, Laken Tomlinson. Cannon gets an extension; Ryan Wendell and Josh Kline get dumped.
DT(2): Vince Wilfork, Sealver Siliga
DT/DE(4): Dominique Easley, Arik Armstead, Chris Jones, Zack Moore. Moore bulks up and plays a backup role to Armstead.
DE/OLB(5): Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower, Rob Ninkovich, Michael Buchanan, Shaquille Riddick. Pats use 5th year option on Jones and Hightower, possibly lock up Jones long term.
LB(4): Jerod Mayo, Jamie Collins, Bernardrick McKinney, +1 (I'd like to see Darius Fleming stick, though James Morris could also be an option). Having 3 really good LBs who can play in space would give the Pats tremendous depth and matchup advantages.
S(4): Devin McCourty, Cody Prewitt, Duron Harmon/Detrick Bonner, Nate Ebner. McCourty gets an extension; Pat Chung and Tavon Wilson go bye-bye.
CB(6): Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Alfonzo Dennard, Logan Ryan, Malcolm Butler, Kyle Arrington. Pats lock up Revis long term. Strongest unit on the team.
ST(4): Gostkowski, Allen, Aiken, Slater.
- Roster losses(10): OL Ryan Wendell, OL Josh Kline, WR Danny Amendola, TE Michael Hoomanwanui, RB Stevan Ridley, RB Brandon Bolden, DT/DE Joe Vellano, LB Chris White, S Pat Chung, S Tavon Wilson.
- Roster gains (10): OL Corey Robinson, OL Laken Tomlinson, WR Kasen Williams, TE Clive Walford, RB Tyler Gaffney, RB Michael Dyer, DT/DE Arik Armstead, LB Bernadrick McKinney, DE/OLB Shaquille Riddick, S Cody Prewitt.
- Bubble: Duron Harmon gets a fight from rookie Detrick Bonner for a backup safety position.
Note: If Vince Wilfork shows signs of falling off, I wouldn't mind going after Broncos DT Terrance Knighton, who is a UFA after this season (though I suspect the Broncos will lock him up). But I'm guessing that most of the Pats $$$ goes to locking up Darrelle Revis and 2015 UFAs Devin McCourty, Marcus Cannon and Shane Vereen, and tying up Nate Solder, Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower for the long term.
Both lines get much stronger, a starting caliber safety is added, the defense adds more speed and versatility on the back end and more depth on the front end, and the offensive skill positions get some upgraded depth.