2011 Season Wins: Over/Under 11.5 (Vegas line)

[supafly]

What kind of odds can I get for 23-0 ... (Pre 4-0. Reg 16-0, post 3-0)

Haven't seen that one, but you'd have to figure it'd be at least in the 3-4-5,000 to 1 range.

I'm interested/curious now that you bring it up. Unfortunately, we may never know. I haven't even seen many 16-0 odds, let alone 23-0.

Check that---it may closer to 2,000 to 1--or 2,500 to 1. If anyone knows, pls post.

 

[borg]

Haven't seen that one, but you'd have to figure it'd be at least in the 3-4-5,000 to 1 range.

I'm interested/curious now that you bring it up. Unfortunately, we may never know. I haven't even seen many 16-0 odds, let alone 23-0.

Check that---it may closer to 2,000 to 1--or 2,500 to 1. If anyone knows, pls post.

I'd put $50 on anything over 250-1

 

[PlainOldEd]

I'd put $50 on anything over 250-1

But then if they went 15-1 you'd be pissed that they couldn't win that last game. It might ruin (or at least dampen) an otherwise excelent season.

 

[aluminum seats]

Haven't seen that one, but you'd have to figure it'd be at least in the 3-4-5,000 to 1 range.

I'm interested/curious now that you bring it up. Unfortunately, we may never know. I haven't even seen many 16-0 odds, let alone 23-0.

Check that---it may closer to 2,000 to 1--or 2,500 to 1. If anyone knows, pls post.

I assume this is a joke--the odds for the Pats to win their last 2 preseason games and then have a perfect season are nowhere near that. But again, I guess you're kidding.

On the over 11.5, you're insane if you don't pound that. No way this squad loses 5 games.

 

[TheSolderKing]

we will not win under 12 games

bet the OVER


Winner winner (Chicken Parmesan Spaghetti dinner) 11.5 TAKE IT

 

[goheels22002]

Games against top/tough teams:

Jets (*2)
Steelers
Colts
Giants
Chiefs
Chargers
Eagles

Who knows with the Cowboys....


With the Chargers, Giants, Chiefs and Colts at home, and Pittsburgh being a team the Patriots have handled with Brady of late, that's a pretty good help with the schedule, but the Eagles have loaded up (and that game is on a short week for the Patriots following a Monday night game), the Chargers game is off a short week, and the Patriots have been splitting with the Jets under Ryan. I could certainly see why some people would be nervous about the number.

I'd take the over, though. I expect more than 11 wins from this team. There's a 6 game stretch that has the potential to be brutal (Steelers/Giants/Jets/Chiefs/Eagles/Colts), but the rest of the schedule seems to fall very nicely aside from the issue of the shortened week against the Chargers, and the Patriots do at least get the bye the week before playing the Steelers.

This team gets 11 wins with Mallett at the controls. The Colts - right now - do not belong on the list of tough games. The Chiefs will immolate with with wing-nut Todd Haley calling the plays. The 4 losses I see are the Steelers, the Chargers, the Eagles and the Jets once. But that is where Brady and Belichick are most confounding - they crush good teams and lose to the weakest links like Cleveland last year. Barring a string of key injuries this team is 13-3 or 14-2.

What was the over/under for the Colts? 8?

 

[Froob]

How could we possibly lose to the Raiders? They may not win 3 games this year,

Dunno man, **** happens tho like the browns last year. Hopefully not though get 19-0 and finished what they started in 07.

 

[pdangle]

Haven't seen that one, but you'd have to figure it'd be at least in the 3-4-5,000 to 1 range.

I'm interested/curious now that you bring it up. Unfortunately, we may never know. I haven't even seen many 16-0 odds, let alone 23-0.

Check that---it may closer to 2,000 to 1--or 2,500 to 1. If anyone knows, pls post.

Well if they're making the over-under 11.5 -120 then we can make a rough estimate that they figure the Pats will win roughly 11.75/16.0 = 73.4% of their games.

Chance to win 23 in a row is just a coin-flip type binomial, odds to win raised to the power of repeated number of outcomes, so, 0.7343 ^ 23 = 0.0008243. Invert it, and we end up at 1213 to 1.

So true odds, we can say roughly around 1200-1. Now after Vegas takes its usual 15%-20% vig on these "win-it-all" type futures, it's down to 1000-1 and a nice round number. FYI, the hidden vig make these bets a terrible proposition (for you anyway). How can you tell it's a crappy bet without even adding up all the outcomes? Ask the teller why you can't bet these props the other way? For example $1000 to win a mealy $1 if they don't go 23-0.

So all that, and you'd need a time machine to get the bet in before the pre season started. But I guess if you had one of those, you probably know who was going win anyway...