2011 Mock Draft Game Discussion

[bakes781]

I thought I had Washington as well but it doesn't make any difference to me. I can do 2-3 teams no worries.

you do sorry about that

 

[Mark Morse]

I guess I should post a summary also:

17. A. Smith OLB
28. M. Wilkerson DE
33. D. Watkins G
60. S. Vereen RB
74. E. Gates WR
92. D. Mims OT
125. T. Barnes C


I seriously struggled with pick 17, Ingram is my Binky and I considered Costonzo also. Wilkerson is by far my favorite pick, and I think the value at 28 and 33 are solid.

I can talk about Cortez Allen now that he has been taken in 5th Rd. That is the player I would have taken instead of Barnes. I know there are no trades but I see #33 as a ripe trade option and Watkins might still be available mid round. He is 27 and that is a big factor. You opened my eyes to Mims and I think that is an excellent selection.

In the past few years I have noticed that the players I have trageted for later rounds (starting in Jan) have steadily moved up the draft and get selected higher than the touts (GBN, CBS NFL Draft Scout etc) have projected. The same things we have liked about these players, the scouts do too!

 

[bakes781]

Chiefs Draft
1-21-Akeem Ayers OLB UCLA
2-55-Jerrel Jernigan WR Troy
3-86-Andrew Jackson OG Fresno State
4-118-Sione Fua NT Stanford
5-135-Zach Hurd OG UConn
5-140-Pat Devlin QB Delaware

I chose Ayers over Clayborn as I felt Ayers presented a better fit and more versatility.

Jernigan may have been a slight reach, but as you recall the Chiefs did a similar thing last year with McCluster in the 2nd round.

Jackson was a need pick and if I had done more research perhaps I'd have taken DeMarcus Love instead.

I chose Fua over Ian because of his consistent effort on every play. Hopefully that will rub off on Dorsey.

Hurd is another versatile prospect which should help a very weak OL.

Everyone remembers how bad Croyle looked when Cassel went down & Devlin looks to be a guy that can be ready to step in at a moments notice.

 

[SirApropos]

Chiefs Draft
1-21-Akeem Ayers OLB UCLA
2-55-Jerrel Jernigan WR Troy
3-86-Andrew Jackson OG Fresno State
4-118-Sione Fua NT Stanford
5-135-Zach Hurd OG UConn
5-140-Pat Devlin QB Delaware

I chose Ayers over Clayborn as I felt Ayers presented a better fit and more versatility.

Jernigan may have been a slight reach, but as you recall the Chiefs did a similar thing last year with McCluster in the 2nd round.

Jackson was a need pick and if I had done more research perhaps I'd have taken DeMarcus Love instead.

Hurd is another versatile prospect which should help a very weak OL.

Jernigan is pretty much a McCluster Clone though.

OT and C are the need areas for the Chiefs on the OL. They had the No 1 Rushing Offense in the league last year so it wasn't that weak just old.

Wigemann will probably be back as he has decided not to retire but they could use a C to develop. They have Lilja, Waters and Asamoah at OG. Waters probably has a year left but still was playing at a pro-bowl level last year. Asamoah is the future and looked good at both G spots when he played last year.

 

[Irish Hooligan]

I can talk about Cortez Allen now that he has been taken in 5th Rd. That is the player I would have taken instead of Barnes. I know there are no trades but I see #33 as a ripe trade option and Watkins might still be available mid round. He is 27 and that is a big factor. You opened my eyes to Mims and I think that is an excellent selection.

In the past few years I have noticed that the players I have trageted for later rounds (starting in Jan) have steadily moved up the draft and get selected higher than the touts (GBN, CBS NFL Draft Scout etc) have projected. The same things we have liked about these players, the scouts do too!

I agree, on Allen and on your general points. I was forced to dig deep in my research on OT and Mims really jumped out at me, not something I knew before my "due diligence". Remember about 3 years ago when that was the buzz term of the draft and you heard it about 7.3 times per hour?

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

I will have the Dallas pick up soon

 

[SirApropos]

After 4 round I noticed that a lot of players were getting overdrafted that are need picks for the Patriots (surprise) For example OLB/DE and OL. Along with QB. Next time I'm taking a team that has the opposite needs as the Patriots

Reiterating a point from earlier in the draft.

I agree that people are overdrafting OL. I'm not sure if it's they don't know what else there teams needs or who the BPA is and just keep going OL but we are way ahead of the curve compared to the last 3 drafts. Not counting where they are going to play in the NFL but where they played in college here's where we are mid way through round 5. I know of at least 10 more that I would consider draftable.

OL - 30 Selected
OT - 18 Selected
OG - 10 Selected
OC - 2 Selected

Here's the numbers for the last 3 drafts. Over a third of those players were drafted in Rounds 6 & 7. I think we are on pace for about 45 OL to be drafted which only rivals 2008 which was a good draft for OT's which this year it is not.

2010 2009 2008
OT 23 20 27
OG 9 13 7
OC 6 7 6

Conversely there have been only 7 RB's taken so far when normally 10 go in the first 3 rounds. Usually about 20 RB's are drafted each year as it. I doubt that we will even get to 15 selected if these patterns hold up.

 

[Irish Hooligan]

Reiterating a point from earlier in the draft.

I agree that people are overdrafting OL. I'm not sure if it's they don't know what else there teams needs or who the BPA is and just keep going OL but we are way ahead of the curve compared to the last 3 drafts. Not counting where they are going to play in the NFL but where they played in college here's where we are mid way through round 5. I know of at least 10 more that I would consider draftable.

OL - 30 Selected
OT - 18 Selected
OG - 10 Selected
OC - 2 Selected

Here's the numbers for the last 3 drafts. Over a third of those players were drafted in Rounds 6 & 7. I think we are on pace for about 45 OL to be drafted which only rivals 2008 which was a good draft for OT's which this year it is not.

2010 2009 2008
OT 23 20 27
OG 9 13 7
OC 6 7 6

Conversely there have been only 7 RB's taken so far when normally 10 go in the first 3 rounds. Usually about 20 RB's are drafted each year as it. I doubt that we will even get to 15 selected if these patterns hold up.

It is interesting/crazy. I screwed up my quote but that point was Whiza's but it has been a similar type of pattern each year we do this which has always been part of the fun for me, I think all drafts take an organic type turn whether that be the NFL, a mock, fantasy league, or what have you.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Reiterating a point from earlier in the draft.

I agree that people are overdrafting OL. I'm not sure if it's they don't know what else there teams needs or who the BPA is and just keep going OL but we are way ahead of the curve compared to the last 3 drafts. Not counting where they are going to play in the NFL but where they played in college here's where we are mid way through round 5. I know of at least 10 more that I would consider draftable.

OL - 30 Selected
OT - 18 Selected
OG - 10 Selected
OC - 2 Selected

Here's the numbers for the last 3 drafts. Over a third of those players were drafted in Rounds 6 & 7. I think we are on pace for about 45 OL to be drafted which only rivals 2008 which was a good draft for OT's which this year it is not.

2010 2009 2008
OT 23 20 27
OG 9 13 7
OC 6 7 6

Conversely there have been only 7 RB's taken so far when normally 10 go in the first 3 rounds. Usually about 20 RB's are drafted each year as it. I doubt that we will even get to 15 selected if these patterns hold up.

So what? We need to draft to fit your quota?
Every year is different. The class at RB is weak this year, that's why there aren't a lot of RBs being taken. Couple that with less need on the part of most teams and you have fewer RBs being taken. I wouldn't overthink it.

If you really want to do the math:
5x OL positions plus backups vs 1x RB position plus backups. Just mathematically speaking OF COURSE more OL will be taken than running backs.

 

[bakes781]

I would agree more RBs should be expected to be gone at this point, but based on the OL rankings I'm looking at they've gone accordingly here.

 

[SirApropos]

So what? We need to draft to fit your quota?
Every year is different. The class at RB is weak this year, that's why there aren't a lot of RBs being taken. Couple that with less need on the part of most teams and you have fewer RBs being taken. I wouldn't overthink it.

If you really want to do the math:
5x OL positions plus backups vs 1x RB position plus backups. Just mathematically speaking OF COURSE more OL will be taken than running backs.

Even with Math involved teams keep 8-9 OL total on their 53 versus 4-5 RB's. But when the avg career of a RB is about 4-5 years and OL is more like 6-9 yrs it would equate you needing to replace RB's more often than OL. I don't think the RB class this year is any weaker than any other year. This is a weak year for OT's though with only maybe 1-2 LT prospects and that conversely is not suddenly going to have teams drafting more Guards just because. I think 3-4 Guards total will go in Rds 1-3 versus the 10 we had selected.

We'll see in about 25 days if I'm right.

 

[VJCPatriot]

We'll see in about 25 days if I'm right.

I disagree with you on several points.
1. This is a far stronger draft class for OL than for RB.
2. This is a weaker draft class for RBs than usual. The only one who should receive 1st round consideration is Ingram IF his knee checks out.
3. The need for OL is far greater than that for RB regardless of career length which is unpredictable in the NFL.
4. I'll guarantee that there will be more OL taken in the first 3 rounds than RBs. You can take that to the bank and you don't need to check back with me in 25 days because I know I'll win that bet.
5. Perhaps you're the one who's overvaluing RBs in this draft? You're more than welcome to draft RBs the rest of the way to correct what you see as a 'rogue' drafting trend.

 

[DaBruinz]

Even with Math involved teams keep 8-9 OL total on their 53 versus 4-5 RB's. But when the avg career of a RB is about 4-5 years and OL is more like 6-9 yrs it would equate you needing to replace RB's more often than OL. I don't think the RB class this year is any weaker than any other year. This is a weak year for OT's though with only maybe 1-2 LT prospects and that conversely is not suddenly going to have teams drafting more Guards just because. I think 3-4 Guards total will go in Rds 1-3 versus the 10 we had selected.

We'll see in about 25 days if I'm right.

One of the reasons that so few RBs have been taken is because many teams actually have a lot of RBs already on the rosters AND the draft class is very weak at RB.

This class is very strong at OT, OK at guard and weak at Center. Not sure where you get that this is a weak class for OT when there have been as many as 7 OTs being talked about in terms of having 1st round value.

Conversely, I've only heard of about 5-6 RBs having better than 3rd round value when it's usually in the 10-15 range..

Did you stop to think that people have drafted OGs because, well, they need OGs. And, honestly, what OGs were "over-drafted" in the 1st 3 rounds?

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

Just got home from work sorry I did not PM but I will have my pick up shorly

 

[SirApropos]

This class is very strong at OT, OK at guard and weak at Center. Not sure where you get that this is a weak class for OT when there have been as many as 7 OTs being talked about in terms of having 1st round value.

Did you stop to think that people have drafted OGs because, well, they need OGs. And, honestly, what OGs were "over-drafted" in the 1st 3 rounds?

What I actually meant was that it was a weak class for LT's. T. Smith, Nate Solder and Castonzo are the only guys that have LT potential the other "First Rounders" are RT only for the most part.

Guys I think were overdrafted in the 1st 3 rounds and where they will really go imo. Most will go in the 5th-6th. At least half the Teams don't draft for need because you can turn later round OL and UDFA's into starters.

Watkins - Late 2nd (Age)
Cannon - 3rd (OT conversion)
Rackley - 4th (Small School)
A. Jackson - 6th-7th (Injuries)
Moffitt - 4th-5th (Horrible Workouts)
D. Love - 4th-6th (OT Conversion, Talent)
L. Ziemba - 4th-6th (Talent)
David Mims - 5th-7th (Small School)
Schilling - 5th-7th (Talent)

It's not a big deal just an observation. I think that the fact that Free Agency is occuring after the draft will also limit the number of OL taken because there are over 70 UFA OL that the majority of will be getting jobs somewhere next year.

 

[DaBruinz]

What I actually meant was that it was a weak class for LT's. T. Smith, Nate Solder and Castonzo are the only guys that have LT potential the other "First Rounders" are RT only for the most part.

Guys I think were overdrafted in the 1st 3 rounds and where they will really go imo. Most will go in the 5th-6th. At least half the Teams don't draft for need because you can turn later round OL and UDFA's into starters.

Watkins - Late 2nd (Age)
Cannon - 3rd (OT conversion)
Rackley - 4th (Small School)
A. Jackson - 6th-7th (Injuries)
Moffitt - 4th-5th (Horrible Workouts)
D. Love - 4th-6th (OT Conversion, Talent)
L. Ziemba - 4th-6th (Talent)
David Mims - 5th-7th (Small School)
Schilling - 5th-7th (Talent)

It's not a big deal just an observation. I think that the fact that Free Agency is occuring after the draft will also limit the number of OL taken because there are over 70 UFA OL that the majority of will be getting jobs somewhere next year.

So, it's just your opinion that they are taken too early..

Why are you knocking guys who are moving inside to OG from OT? That tends to be a very easy transition.

Why are you knocking guys from small schools? Just because they are from a small school doesn't automatically make them bad or untalented.... Did you ever stop to think that most of the small school guys have already been knocked and you knocking them farther is basically hitting them twice for the same thing?

As for the number of UFA, you have no clue how many there are going to be. No one does. Because there is no CBA to determine that.

 

[patsinthesnow]

I go BPA with Jacquizz Rodgers. I don't see him lasting to the mid-5th round on draft day, his stats and highlights speak for themselves. He becomes the 3rd RB on the Vikings depth chart. I think he compliments AP better than Gerhart, and could beat him out for 2nd RB/3rd down RB.

 

[broadwayjoe]

Just wanted to let all GM's know that CanadianPat'sFan will be helping me out this weekend so you can send your PM's to him on Saturday and Sunday from 8am est to 12 noon est and after that time you can send them to me.

Just reminding all GM's we will do the same thing this weekend.

 

[Irish Hooligan]

Will have the Pats pick up in just a sec, work got all real on me today.

Alright I didn't think Marsh would make it to 159 I personally think he is excellent value at this spot and I believe though a project his size and speed could at worst contribute on ST.

Let me have it, I can take it.

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

Just reminding all GM's we will do the same thing this weekend.

I will be available this weekend wow at this pace we might get into the seventh round.