2006 AFC East Season Preview

[Welker83]

Have you ever heard of a...

BLIZZARD?

DAVIE, Fla. (Aug. 4, 2005) -- The Miami Dolphins ' video coordinator was shaken up after lightning struck near where he was working atop a tower during the team's afternoon practice.


Dave Hack, who has worked in the team's video department for 32 years, was treated and not seriously injured. He was not hospitalized, according to team officials.

The strike hit about 40 minutes into a planned two-hour workout, the remainder of which was canceled.

Hack, one of the longest-tenured members of the Dolphins' organization, is the only team employee to have attended each of former quarterback Dan Marino's 242 regular-season and 18 playoff games.

Bands of severe thunderstorms moved through much of South Florida during the afternoon, producing more than 2 inches of rain per hour and bringing wind gusts in excess of 45 mph to some parts of the region.


This is why we got it...

 

[Displaced - Fan]

Yeah, I lived in Upstate NY for ten years. Whats that have to do with the fins and hurricanes and tropical storms?? I'll promise you Miami has far more foul weather then NE, through a whole season. Do you think WH would spend millions on a buliding that wasn't needed??

Well now if you REALLY lived up in upstate NY for ten years you wouldn't have posted this. The whole reason people retire to FL is for the PERFECT WEATHER!!!!!! Yes there are a few hurricanes. But please, far more foul weather than N.E.?? What are you smoking?? Yeah I see millions flocking to N.E. to retire for the greate weather!!

 

[Welker83]

Well now if you REALLY lived up in upstate NY for ten years you wouldn't have posted this. The whole reason people retire to FL is for the PERFECT WEATHER!!!!!! Yes there are a few hurricanes. But please, far more foul weather than N.E.?? What are you smoking?? Yeah I see millions flocking to N.E. to retire for the greate weather!!

god guys give it up! our Winter weather is awesome and yours SUCKS! our Summer weather BLOWS (literaly) and your guys is great! Give it up already!

 

[5 Rings for Brady!!]

One of the things holding the Pats back was the fact that it rained so often and so continually during practice that they needed to build a better indoor practice facility to use during the week. They spend a lot of time in their practice facility because it is the only way that they can practice effectively with NE weather.

Two inches of rain in NE is an april shower, by the way. They just had biblical flooding rains for like weeks.

 

[Welker83]

One of the things holding the Pats back was the fact that it rained so often and so continually during practice that they needed to build a better indoor practice facility to use during the week. They spend a lot of time in their practive facility because it is the only way that they can practice effectively with NE weather.

Two inches of rain in NE is an april shower, by the way. They just had biblical flooding rains for like weeks.

Yeah my uncle lives in Dracut...they had bilge pumps going 24/7... I'm coming up there to go over to our cottage on lake winnepesaukee in august and will be helping him drywall and texturize some damaged walls... Right now in S. Florida it rains everyday in the afternoon...ussually its hard but it's short lasted...we got a bunch of these "mini-storms" over the weekend...

 

[pats1]

Let's not forget about LIGHT either. New England is further north than Miami, so the days are going to be shorter. In the winter (shortest day is Dec. 21), the sun will go down just after 4:00 PM.

 

[AzPatsFan]

First of all, thank you. And, you clearly know a lot more about NFL Teams than I do.

But, I still can't answer one question in the affirmative: did the Pats improve during this past offseason? I don't see how the answer to that question is "Yes." We lost Givens, McGinest, Vinatierie and Ashworth and didn't pick up players of anywhere near comparable experience or credentials.

The good news is that the Jets and Bills didn't get any better either and the Dolphins are depending on Culpepper returning to his old form, which is a bet I wouldn't take.

So, I'd agree we win the Division, but I don't see 13--3. And I would disagree with describing any NFL schedule as "very relaxing," especially one that includes Payme and Favre along with a couple of pretty hungry teams.

I'd be very happy if we won the Division at 11--5 (even 10--6) and then am more than happy to take my chances with a home game or two in January, when anything can happen. But, you're counting a few too many chickens before they're hatched for my comfort.

You said:

"We lost Givens, McGinest, Vinatieri and Ashworth and didn't pick up players of anywhere near comparable experience or credentials" is a statement that I would quarrel with.

A) Givens is a fine #2 WR. The Patriots also let Andre and Dwight go and now BJ too. They added an aging Troy Brown back from Defense; give him 15 more receptions to go with his 39, 1/4 of Givens output.

They added Reche Caldwell a former #2 pick who was breaking out in his third season as is typical for WRs. He had 17 receptions for 300 yards (projection: 68 for 1200 yards per season), in the first four games of 2004 and then tore an ACL and was lost for the year. In 2005 he came back, but only got 28 receptions (half of Givens output) while not displaying the qualities that made him a 2nd rounder, while only partially back from the ACL. Its typical of first year returnees from an ACL. Let let him equal his restricted 2005 output and add 10 receptions, now that his ACL is fully healed. That addition covers for Andre and BJ's output too.

The Patriots drafted Chad Jackson in the top of the Round 2. Rookies don't do much so give him only 15 receptions and the balance of Givens out put is covered as well as Dwight's output.

Grahambo not having to stay in and block now that Light is healthy, can get 5 more receptions. Fauria's output is covered.

All the receptions from 2005 are covered and in no case have we asked an impossibility from any single player. The Patriots were forced to pass a lot in 2005 because the running game was poor. They would prefer to cut down on the number of pass attempts (and hence completions) so you can even cut down on someones catches if you wish. The reception deficit from 2005 is more than covered.

B) Vinatieri is gone and his 100 Points/season. Candidates Gramattica and Gostkowski are here. Many are picking Ghost but Martin is an old pro barely in his prime at 30, who was a star before his injury and failed surgery. I think he wins the job and produces an average healthy year for him. Vinatieri was a 80% kicker; Martin was a 80% kicker. Net wash ...& Ghost sits on PS and learns and backs up... "Clutchiness" not replaced.

C) Ashworth, an UDFA TE converted to a ROT. Part time starter but not an overpowering player who shared a job with Brandon Gorin. Gorin has the job fulltime by default, if he can hold it. But Nick Kaczur came in as a rook and started 11 games as LOT, a much tougher position to play than ROT.

Nick could/might have taken the job from both Ash and Gorin anyway.

Sitting on the PS was a former ALL SEC tackle in Wesly Britt recovering from a broken leg. He might challenge for the ROT job or backup LOT freeing Kaczur to go after ROT job.

And that's not all. Ryan Tucker, a former Bills starter was picked up and he could try for the ROT job as well as the interior line jobs.

There is even a rookie or two to throw into the match but they are headed to PS for seasoning, IMHO.

Its easy to see why the Pats didn't match the great offer that Ashworth received.

D) Willie. The Pats drafted a late round DE/OLB conversion project. But he won't take Willie's spot in 2006. Nor will TBC. I think he takes some rotation snaps that Willie would have had. No, Willie is replaced by a combination of two present starting quality and younger players. Colvin's finally all the way back, gets some additional snaps; and Vrabel moves back out side and takes the balance. The rotation is now Rosie, Mike, and sometimes Tully and occasionally Mincey; instead of Willie; Mike and sometimes Rosie.

Beisel, Gardner, Claridge and Roach fight to get snaps at WILB next to Tedy. Beisel had the job last year; Gardner is a five year pro; Claridge is no longer a rookie and was tabbed as a future star by Chad Brown; and Freddie rminds me of TJ a tough, hard nose, run-stuffer without much range.

So the Patriots replaced Givens, McGinest, Vinatieri and Ashworth and did pick up players of near comparable experience or BETTER potential and credentials, in the case of Givens, McGinest and Ashworth. In effect they replaced a good #2 WR with two potential future #1 WRs.
In place of a good star kicker, they replaced him with a former star kicker, with approximately the same kicking success average, right around 80% and a rookie with a strong leg.

They replaced Ashworth with a potentially better player in Kaczur and still others with better potential down the road in Britt and O'Callaghan as well as Gorin. They replaced a steady, average ROT with a starting quality LOT, a high potential LOT/ROT, and a high potential ROT candidate.


In no case are they relying on just one guy to replace the departed player. Nor are they relying on a rookie as the answer at any position. Belliosi have two or more candidates lined up to replace a single guy. And in every case they are younger, too.

 

[feelthepain]

You said:

"We lost Givens, McGinest, Vinatieri and Ashworth and didn't pick up players of anywhere near comparable experience or credentials" is a statement that I would quarrel with.

A) Givens is a fine #2 WR. The Patriots also let Andre and Dwight go and now BJ too. They added an aging Troy Brown back from Defense; give him 15 more receptions to go with his 39, 1/4 of Givens output.

They added Reche Caldwell a former #2 pick who was breaking out in his third season as is typical for WRs. He had 17 receptions for 300 yards (projection: 68 for 1200 yards per season), in the first four games of 2004 and then tore an ACL and was lost for the year. In 2005 he came back, but only got 28 receptions (half of Givens output) while not displaying the qualities that made him a 2nd rounder, while only partially back from the ACL. Its typical of first year returnees from an ACL. Let let him equal his restricted 2005 output and add 10 receptions, now that his ACL is fully healed. That addition covers for Andre and BJ's output too.

The Patriots drafted Chad Jackson in the top of the Round 2. Rookies don't do much so give him only 15 receptions and the balance of Givens out put is covered as well as Dwight's output.

Grahambo not having to stay in and block now that Light is healthy, can get 5 more receptions. Fauria's output is covered.

All the receptions from 2005 are covered and in no case have we asked an impossibility from any single player. The Patriots were forced to pass a lot in 2005 because the running game was poor. They would prefer to cut down on the number of pass attempts (and hence completions) so you can even cut down on someones catches if you wish. The reception deficit from 2005 is more than covered.

B) Vinatieri is gone and his 100 Points/season. Candidates Gramattica and Gostkowski are here. Many are picking Ghost but Martin is an old pro barely in his prime at 30, who was a star before his injury and failed surgery. I think he wins the job and produces an average healthy year for him. Vinatieri was a 80% kicker; Martin was a 80% kicker. Net wash ...& Ghost sits on PS and learns and backs up... "Clutchiness" not replaced.

C) Ashworth, an UDFA TE converted to a ROT. Part time starter but not an overpowering player who shared a job with Brandon Gorin. Gorin has the job fulltime by default, if he can hold it. But Nick Kaczur came in as a rook and started 11 games as LOT, a much tougher position to play than ROT.

Nick could/might have taken the job from both Ash and Gorin anyway.

Sitting on the PS was a former ALL SEC tackle in Wesly Britt recovering from a broken leg. He might challenge for the ROT job or backup LOT freeing Kaczur to go after ROT job.

And that's not all. Ryan Tucker, a former Bills starter was picked up and he could try for the ROT job as well as the interior line jobs.

There is even a rookie or two to throw into the match but they are headed to PS for seasoning, IMHO.

Its easy to see why the Pats didn't match the great offer that Ashworth received.

D) Willie. The Pats drafted a late round DE/OLB conversion project. But he won't take Willie's spot in 2006. Nor will TBC. I think he takes some rotation snaps that Willie would have had. No, Willie is replaced by a combination of two present starting quality and younger players. Colvin's finally all the way back, gets some additional snaps; and Vrabel moves back out side and takes the balance. The rotation is now Rosie, Mike, and sometimes Tully and occasionally Mincey; instead of Willie; Mike and sometimes Rosie.

Beisel, Gardner, Claridge and Roach fight to get snaps at WILB next to Tedy. Beisel had the job last year; Gardner is a five year pro; Claridge is no longer a rookie and was tabbed as a future star by Chad Brown; and Freddie rminds me of TJ a tough, hard nose, run-stuffer without much range.

So the Patriots replaced Givens, McGinest, Vinatieri and Ashworth and did pick up players of near comparable experience or BETTER potential and credentials, in the case of Givens, McGinest and Ashworth. In effect they replaced a good #2 WR with two potential future #1 WRs.
In place of a good star kicker, they replaced him with a former star kicker, with approximately the same kicking success average, right around 80% and a rookie with a strong leg.

They replaced Ashworth with a potentially better player in Kaczur and still others with better potential down the road in Britt and O'Callaghan as well as Gorin. They replaced a steady, average ROT with a starting quality LOT, a high potential LOT/ROT, and a high potential ROT candidate.


In no case are they relying on just one guy to replace the departed player. Nor are they relying on a rookie as the answer at any position. Belliosi have two or more candidates lined up to replace a single guy. And in every case they are younger, too.

According to some Pat fans here, the Pats are just a better team from top to bottom then the fins. Well it seems there's a whole lotta new people in NE, and the loss of a good coach 3rd in two years. Sure NE is a good team, but are they head and shoulders above anyone else in the division?? No, they have a lot of unproven players, or should I say unproven in that system. It's just the cycle of the NFL that teams can't stay on top for long periods of time. It won't be business as usual in NE. Miami has closed the gap significantly and it will be a fun year watching two good teams battle it out for the division crown and who knows stranger things have happened, there could be a three team race in the AFC east. All it takes is one bad injury and NE could finish third in the race.

 

[feelthepain]

Let's not forget about LIGHT either. New England is further north than Miami, so the days are going to be shorter. In the winter (shortest day is Dec. 21), the sun will go down just after 4:00 PM.

You might want to sit down for this John boy....but electricity is this new thing that goes through this other new fangled thing called a "light bulb" ya know what they can do together??? They are a lot brighter then candles...I know ,I know it sounds strange, but it works!!! Also seeing as how NE has the best owner in the NFL, I think he went out and baught a box of "light bulbs" just last week, so the Pats might not have to be affraid of the dark anymore!!!

 

[pats1]

According to some Pat fans here, the Pats are just a better team from top to bottom then the fins. Well it seems there's a whole lotta new people in NE, and the loss of a good coach 3rd in two years. Sure NE is a good team, but are they head and shoulders above anyone else in the division?? No, they have a lot of unproven players, or should I say unproven in that system.

What, and Will Allen, Jason Allen, Renaldo Hill, Deke Cooper, Andre Goodman, Michael Lehan, Sedrick Hodge, Keith Newman, Daunte Culpepper, Joey Harrington, L.J. Shelton, and Fred Beasley ARE?

Do you seriously think all of those players will come in right away, be consummate teammates and locker room presences, pickup Saban's system flawlessly, and contribute at or better than their past performances?

 

[arrellbee]

Yes Saban is having a big effect on this oragnization. Dolphin stadium now has the largest Video screen in the world, WH also spent 250 mil out of his own pocket to upgrade the stadium, keep in mind it took less the half that much to build the stadium in 87. WH is spending money on every aspect of the team. Coaching staff, players, facility's, adverstising promotion. The fins were a step behind and that's changing daily. There are many reason people in the business think the fins are closer to being an elite team then they've been in the last five years.

Pardon me, but WHAT does most of this have to do with winning football games ?? ?? ??

 

[arrellbee]

Many analysts and fans are superficially looking at the list of the Patriots additions and subtractions, and naively concluding they haven't improved as a team. What gets lost in all of this is the return of injured players which absolutely crippled the team early, forcing Brady to carry a beaten and battered offense on his shoulders. The loss of Ashworth is negligible - the Pats will have Kaczur and Light (missed almost all of '05) at the tackles, with Brandon Gorin providing some depth. Inside, even if Koppen doesn't return for the start of the season after missing the second half of '05, will still have Mankins, Hochstein, and Neal. Look for Kaczur and Mankins to continue to improve in their second seasons.

The WR position took a hit losing Givens, but received first-round talent from Chad Jackson in return. Fortunately, he won't have to carry too heavy of a load as Brady will have PLENTY of targets between Branch, Watson, Graham, Caldwell, Jackson, Faulk, Brown, Maroney, Thomas, Mills, and Pass. The additions of Mills, Thomas, and Jackson through the draft and the continued emergence of Watson will really offset the Givens loss.

While it would be impossible to replace what Vinatieri brought in pressure situations, Gostkowski, a 4th-round draft pick, brings a stronger leg, something that will help as we all saw Vinatieri's kickoffs and long field goals start to decline over the past few years.

The defensive backfield has been shored up with the return of Gay and Chad Scott, and the additions of Warfield and Tebucky. When Rodney can return still remains a big question, but the Pats have more backfield depth than they've had in years to lessen the impact if he wasn't to return.



Favre is a shell of his former self. The Packers have slipped all the way down to the bottom of the NFL barrel.

Considering what the Pats went through early in the season last year (@ Car, @ Pit, vs. SD, @ ATL, @ DEN, vs. IND), this schedule certainly is a breath of fresh air. The NFC North with Detroit and Green Bay isn't nearly as good as the NFC South with Carolina, Tampa, and Atlanta. The AFC South has Houston and Tennessee, while the AFC West was the strongest in the league last year between Denver, Kansas City, and San Diego.

It is hard to figure out how the pundits and other team's fans just can't seem to understand what the Pat's 'losses' really mean and seem to ingore all of the things, such as you mention, that might even, on balance, make the team stronger this year. Maybe even significantly stronger - who knows. It's also vastly amusing to see how other teams feel that every one of their draft picks right down to the 7th round is going to be solid or super contributors to their team - when most of these teams have mostly rotten records of drafting even solid players. And the flip side of that is they seem to completely discount the Patriots draft rookies. It is a pure puzzlement.

Why is it so difficult for other team's fans, I guess specifically the Fins in this thread, to realize that the Pat's, even with ALL of the critical injuries last year and missing key starters, still made the playoffs, won their first game, and probably lost to Denver only because of really uncharacteristic 5 turnovers. The team is young, essentially only lost 3 players that could even possibly be considered to be an impact, has all of the key starters returning from injury, apparently had a superb draft in key positions, and has a whole bunch of young players with an additional season of experience. I just can't figure out for the life of me how they figure the Pats are likely to be weaker. On the contrary, if they use their heads, they should be wondering if the Patriots aren't most likely to be stronger this season. Oh, well - who can figure.

As an additional side thought. I really don't get this preoccupation with how much of a loss Vinatieri is supposed to be or how much doom that spells. To all we can see, they didn't seem to feel Vinatieri could kick the 50 yard field goals AT ALL, much less with high percentage. We have ample proof that Gostkowski can at least kick that long and there seems to be pretty good indication that he can hit a very decent percentage. That seems like a plus rather than a minus. It looks like we should get a few extra yards and hang time on kickoffs. That's a really significant plus. While Vinatieri was certainly a clutch kicker and money in the bank, he was not the highest percentage kicker in the league. There seems to be room for Gostkowski to do pretty much as well as Vinatieri without even being the top accurate kicker in the league. Vinatieri DID miss some kicks in crucial situations lately. And as another possibility, if the offense manages 5 or 10 yards more on drives before stalling, the FG percentage goes up just because of that even if Gostkowski is not quite as accurate as Vinatieri at longer range. Those are an awful lot of possibilities that say Vinatieri may not be a critical loss in the slightest. Oh, well. They need something to hope for whether it's realistic or not.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

Well it seems there's a whole lotta new people in NE, and the loss of a good coach 3rd in two years. Sure NE is a good team, but are they head and shoulders above anyone else in the division?? No, they have a lot of unproven players, or should I say unproven in that system.

"are they head and shoulders above anyone else in the division??"
YES! Until they are proven wrong on the playing field which hasn't happened the past few years. Should it end this year just because the 'NFL law of averages' & parity say it is improbable? It is also improbable that a team (in this age of parity) win 3 SB's in 4 years. But it happened - so that is why we believe in your 'improbablility theory' that the Pats will continue to stay on top. Someone has to win the division - why not us? (again).

Next question / statement? "it seems there's a whole lotta new people in NE" and also "No, they have a lot of unproven players, or should I say unproven in that system."

Fins PLAYERS ACQUIRED: CB Will Allen; OG Bennie Anderson; FB Fred Beasley; WR Kelly Campbell; S Deke Cooper; QB Daunte Culpepper; CB Andre' Goodman; QB Joey Harrington; TE Keith Heinrich; DB Renaldo Hill; LB Sedrick Hodge; DB Michael Lehan; LB Keith Newman; OT Mike Pearson; TE Justin Peelle; OT L.J. Shelton = 16 + 6 drafted == 22 new Fin players

Pats PLAYERS ACQUIRED: WR Reche Caldwell; LB Barry Gardner; PK Martin Gramatica; S Tebucky Jones; S Mel Mitchell; DT Johnathan Sullivan; CB Eric Warfield = 7 + 10 drafted == 17 new Pats players

Obviously not all players will make the teams but you can see by your own argument - as there are more new Fins then the 'team' should have a harder time picking up the system (which also has not been in place as long as BB's) plus the Fins system will probably be tweaked with a new OC and DC.

Statement #3 : "loss of a good coach 3rd in two years".
We have a new DC but he was promoted from within. You have a new OC and DC both of whom are external to the system.

Summary: I'm not trying to be a butthead - but by just using your own logic the Fins will be more in 'transition' than the Pats this year with many more personnel and coaching changes. Some assuredly are for the better. But more variables added to the equation usually mean much more uncertainty. That (Fins) uncertainty principle coupled with the very recent success of the Pats within the division - lead us to assume that it will be the same again this season. Why should we assume otherwise - just because sooner or later things must change? (The more things change - the more they stay the same). :rocker:

 

[arrellbee]

"are they head and shoulders above anyone else in the division??"
YES! Until they are proven wrong on the playing field which hasn't happened the past few years. Should it end this year just because the 'NFL law of averages' & parity say it is improbable? It is also improbable that a team (in this age of parity) win 3 SB's in 4 years. But it happened - so that is why we believe in your 'improbablility theory' that the Pats will continue to stay on top. Someone has to win the division - why not us? (again).

Next question / statement? "it seems there's a whole lotta new people in NE" and also "No, they have a lot of unproven players, or should I say unproven in that system."

Fins PLAYERS ACQUIRED: CB Will Allen; OG Bennie Anderson; FB Fred Beasley; WR Kelly Campbell; S Deke Cooper; QB Daunte Culpepper; CB Andre' Goodman; QB Joey Harrington; TE Keith Heinrich; DB Renaldo Hill; LB Sedrick Hodge; DB Michael Lehan; LB Keith Newman; OT Mike Pearson; TE Justin Peelle; OT L.J. Shelton = 16 + 6 drafted == 22 new Fin players

Pats PLAYERS ACQUIRED: WR Reche Caldwell; LB Barry Gardner; PK Martin Gramatica; S Tebucky Jones; S Mel Mitchell; DT Johnathan Sullivan; CB Eric Warfield = 7 + 10 drafted == 17 new Pats players

Obviously not all players will make the teams but you can see by your own argument - as there are more new Fins then the 'team' should have a harder time picking up the system (which also has not been in place as long as BB's) plus the Fins system will probably be tweaked with a new OC and DC.

Statement #3 : "loss of a good coach 3rd in two years".
We have a new DC but he was promoted from within. You have a new OC and DC both of whom are external to the system.

Summary: I'm not trying to be a butthead - but by just using your own logic the Fins will be more in 'transition' than the Pats this year with many more personnel and coaching changes. Some assuredly are for the better. But more variables added to the equation usually mean much more uncertainty. That (Fins) uncertainty principle coupled with the very recent success of the Pats within the division - lead us to assume that it will be the same again this season. Why should we assume otherwise - just because sooner or later things must change? (The more things change - the more they stay the same). :rocker:

Can't say it much clearer or with better perspective than that.

 

[shmessy]

Yeah my uncle lives in Dracut...they had bilge pumps going 24/7... I'm coming up there to go over to our cottage on lake winnepesaukee in august and will be helping him drywall and texturize some damaged walls... Right now in S. Florida it rains everyday in the afternoon...ussually its hard but it's short lasted...we got a bunch of these "mini-storms" over the weekend...

It's amazing how you continue to avoid answering the one piece of data that stands out in Walter's report on the Phins:

Their best record is in the month of September!

This completely obliterates your hurricane argument.

 

[Displaced - Fan]

"are they head and shoulders above anyone else in the division??"
YES! Until they are proven wrong on the playing field which hasn't happened the past few years. Should it end this year just because the 'NFL law of averages' & parity say it is improbable? It is also improbable that a team (in this age of parity) win 3 SB's in 4 years. But it happened - so that is why we believe in your 'improbablility theory' that the Pats will continue to stay on top. Someone has to win the division - why not us? (again).

Next question / statement? "it seems there's a whole lotta new people in NE" and also "No, they have a lot of unproven players, or should I say unproven in that system."

Fins PLAYERS ACQUIRED: CB Will Allen; OG Bennie Anderson; FB Fred Beasley; WR Kelly Campbell; S Deke Cooper; QB Daunte Culpepper; CB Andre' Goodman; QB Joey Harrington; TE Keith Heinrich; DB Renaldo Hill; LB Sedrick Hodge; DB Michael Lehan; LB Keith Newman; OT Mike Pearson; TE Justin Peelle; OT L.J. Shelton = 16 + 6 drafted == 22 new Fin players

Pats PLAYERS ACQUIRED: WR Reche Caldwell; LB Barry Gardner; PK Martin Gramatica; S Tebucky Jones; S Mel Mitchell; DT Johnathan Sullivan; CB Eric Warfield = 7 + 10 drafted == 17 new Pats players

Obviously not all players will make the teams but you can see by your own argument - as there are more new Fins then the 'team' should have a harder time picking up the system (which also has not been in place as long as BB's) plus the Fins system will probably be tweaked with a new OC and DC.

Statement #3 : "loss of a good coach 3rd in two years".
We have a new DC but he was promoted from within. You have a new OC and DC both of whom are external to the system.

Summary: I'm not trying to be a butthead - but by just using your own logic the Fins will be more in 'transition' than the Pats this year with many more personnel and coaching changes. Some assuredly are for the better. But more variables added to the equation usually mean much more uncertainty. That (Fins) uncertainty principle coupled with the very recent success of the Pats within the division - lead us to assume that it will be the same again this season. Why should we assume otherwise - just because sooner or later things must change? (The more things change - the more they stay the same). :rocker:

AHEM to that!! Well put.

 

[Jacky Roberts]

Can someone please tell me when Nick Saban morphed into Bill Belichick? The way I see it, Saban hasn't won a damn thing. Putting them up there with Belichick is like putting Jay Cutler up there with Tom Brady. I can't wait until the Dolfans disappear once they see their team in the same light that we do.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

You said:

"We lost Givens, McGinest, Vinatieri and Ashworth and didn't pick up players of anywhere near comparable experience or credentials" is a statement that I would quarrel with.

A) Givens is a fine #2 WR. The Patriots also let Andre and Dwight go and now BJ too. They added an aging Troy Brown back from Defense; give him 15 more receptions to go with his 39, 1/4 of Givens output.

They added Reche Caldwell a former #2 pick who was breaking out in his third season as is typical for WRs. He had 17 receptions for 300 yards (projection: 68 for 1200 yards per season), in the first four games of 2004 and then tore an ACL and was lost for the year. In 2005 he came back, but only got 28 receptions (half of Givens output) while not displaying the qualities that made him a 2nd rounder, while only partially back from the ACL. Its typical of first year returnees from an ACL. Let let him equal his restricted 2005 output and add 10 receptions, now that his ACL is fully healed. That addition covers for Andre and BJ's output too.

The Patriots drafted Chad Jackson in the top of the Round 2. Rookies don't do much so give him only 15 receptions and the balance of Givens out put is covered as well as Dwight's output.

Grahambo not having to stay in and block now that Light is healthy, can get 5 more receptions. Fauria's output is covered.

All the receptions from 2005 are covered and in no case have we asked an impossibility from any single player. The Patriots were forced to pass a lot in 2005 because the running game was poor. They would prefer to cut down on the number of pass attempts (and hence completions) so you can even cut down on someones catches if you wish. The reception deficit from 2005 is more than covered.

B) Vinatieri is gone and his 100 Points/season. Candidates Gramattica and Gostkowski are here. Many are picking Ghost but Martin is an old pro barely in his prime at 30, who was a star before his injury and failed surgery. I think he wins the job and produces an average healthy year for him. Vinatieri was a 80% kicker; Martin was a 80% kicker. Net wash ...& Ghost sits on PS and learns and backs up... "Clutchiness" not replaced.

C) Ashworth, an UDFA TE converted to a ROT. Part time starter but not an overpowering player who shared a job with Brandon Gorin. Gorin has the job fulltime by default, if he can hold it. But Nick Kaczur came in as a rook and started 11 games as LOT, a much tougher position to play than ROT.

Nick could/might have taken the job from both Ash and Gorin anyway.

Sitting on the PS was a former ALL SEC tackle in Wesly Britt recovering from a broken leg. He might challenge for the ROT job or backup LOT freeing Kaczur to go after ROT job.

And that's not all. Ryan Tucker, a former Bills starter was picked up and he could try for the ROT job as well as the interior line jobs.

There is even a rookie or two to throw into the match but they are headed to PS for seasoning, IMHO.

Its easy to see why the Pats didn't match the great offer that Ashworth received.

D) Willie. The Pats drafted a late round DE/OLB conversion project. But he won't take Willie's spot in 2006. Nor will TBC. I think he takes some rotation snaps that Willie would have had. No, Willie is replaced by a combination of two present starting quality and younger players. Colvin's finally all the way back, gets some additional snaps; and Vrabel moves back out side and takes the balance. The rotation is now Rosie, Mike, and sometimes Tully and occasionally Mincey; instead of Willie; Mike and sometimes Rosie.

Beisel, Gardner, Claridge and Roach fight to get snaps at WILB next to Tedy. Beisel had the job last year; Gardner is a five year pro; Claridge is no longer a rookie and was tabbed as a future star by Chad Brown; and Freddie rminds me of TJ a tough, hard nose, run-stuffer without much range.

So the Patriots replaced Givens, McGinest, Vinatieri and Ashworth and did pick up players of near comparable experience or BETTER potential and credentials, in the case of Givens, McGinest and Ashworth. In effect they replaced a good #2 WR with two potential future #1 WRs.
In place of a good star kicker, they replaced him with a former star kicker, with approximately the same kicking success average, right around 80% and a rookie with a strong leg.

They replaced Ashworth with a potentially better player in Kaczur and still others with better potential down the road in Britt and O'Callaghan as well as Gorin. They replaced a steady, average ROT with a starting quality LOT, a high potential LOT/ROT, and a high potential ROT candidate.


In no case are they relying on just one guy to replace the departed player. Nor are they relying on a rookie as the answer at any position. Belliosi have two or more candidates lined up to replace a single guy. And in every case they are younger, too.

First of all, I feel disloyal debating with you since that puts me with that non-Pats'-Fan-troll, but thanks for the detailed and thoughtful response. Here's what I think. Remember, the only point I made was that we couldnt' say we'd "improved." To me that comes down to taking a hard look at what we had and what we have, not what we hope. (Also, remember that I still say we win the Division.)

I concede on the O-Line. They're locked up for, I believe, three years and have been playing together for at least one full year. And, you're absolutely right re Kaczur. So, point conceded.

But there are just too many leaps of faith required in the rest.

Caldwell's a big "maybe" with an injury history. Jackson hasn't caught a pass in the NFL. I hope you're right, but I just can't say we've "improved" there.

You clearly know a lot about the NFL, so you know at least as well as I do that Vinatieri was a lot more than "a 80% kicker." Gramattica's a head case and Gostokowski might be the next Stenerud, but he hasn't kicked a beer can in the NFL yet. So, I really disagree there.

IF Colvin's all the way back and IF some combo of Beisel, Gardner, Claridge and Roach work magic, then maybe it works out like you say without McG. But, it's still too much of a stretch to say we've improved.

(We also lack a lights out corner, but that's not on the table.)

The original poster had us 13--3 and coasting through a "very relaxing schedule." Do you think BB believes that today? I think he'd say, as he does every season, that he won't know what he has until the sixth game or so. Maybe you've got some insight into Piolichick's genius here and know what their "plan" is. Personally, I think it's simple: they decided not to pay up for Givens, McGinest and Ashworth, maybe didn't treat Number Four as well as they should have, and are hoping that they can work their old magic once again along the lines you describe. I hope you're right. I want to see us joint the Steelers as the only team to win "four of six," but until we see this team on the field, I still say we can't contend that we've "improved."

 

[pats1]

First of all, I feel disloyal debating with you since that puts me with that non-Pats'-Fan-troll, but thanks for the detailed and thoughtful response. Here's what I think. Remember, the only point I made was that we couldnt' say we'd "improved." To me that comes down to taking a hard look at what we had and what we have, not what we hope. (Also, remember that I still say we win the Division.)

I concede on the O-Line. They're locked up for, I believe, three years and have been playing together for at least one full year. And, you're absolutely right re Kaczur. So, point conceded.

But there are just too many leaps of faith required in the rest.

Caldwell's a big "maybe" with an injury history. Jackson hasn't caught a pass in the NFL. I hope you're right, but I just can't say we've "improved" there.

You clearly know a lot about the NFL, so you know at least as well as I do that Vinatieri was a lot more than "a 80% kicker." Gramattica's a head case and Gostokowski might be the next Stenerud, but he hasn't kicked a beer can in the NFL yet. So, I really disagree there.

IF Colvin's all the way back and IF some combo of Beisel, Gardner, Claridge and Roach work magic, then maybe it works out like you say without McG. But, it's still too much of a stretch to say we've improved.

(We also lack a lights out corner, but that's not on the table.)

The original poster had us 13--3 and coasting through a "very relaxing schedule." Do you think BB believes that today? I think he'd say, as he does every season, that he won't know what he has until the sixth game or so. Maybe you've got some insight into Piolichick's genius here and know what their "plan" is. Personally, I think it's simple: they decided not to pay up for Givens, McGinest and Ashworth, maybe didn't treat Number Four as well as they should have, and are hoping that they can work their old magic once again along the lines you describe. I hope you're right. I want to see us joint the Steelers as the only team to win "four of six," but until we see this team on the field, I still say we can't contend that we've "improved."

Ashworth should be left out of the conversation. He wasn't a full-time starter, nor would he have if retained.

Like it or not, Vinatieri was an 80% kicker.

In 2005, his field goal percentage was exactly at 80%. In 2003, it was at 74%, and in 2001, it was also at 80%.

Colvin IS all the way back. He has been all the way back since early last year. The injury occured almost THREE years ago.

Gardner or Roach won't even make the roster. It's either Beisel or Banta-Cain who will start.

True, Jackson or Maroney hasn't done a thing yet in the NFL, but like any other draft picks, they haven't gotten their chance. I don't think every high draft pick for every team has been a bust. The Pats have gotten great production out of their picks in their rookie years, and there's no indications that trend will cease.

I don't see why not overpaying for Givens and McGinest, and thus damaging the teams' financial future means they haven't improved. All Pats fans should have well realized by now that retaining overpaid guys like Law, Woody, or Milloy means nothing to how the team will perform in the coming season.

Like it or not, the Pats' schedule IS relaxed. They went through one of the hardest stretches for any NFL team in the beginning of last year, and I'm sure you'll agree that some of the teams the Pats will play are going nowhere fast and don't compare to some of the teams from last year.

 

[shmessy]

First of all, I feel disloyal debating with you since that puts me with that non-Pats'-Fan-troll, but thanks for the detailed and thoughtful response. Here's what I think. Remember, the only point I made was that we couldnt' say we'd "improved." To me that comes down to taking a hard look at what we had and what we have, not what we hope. (Also, remember that I still say we win the Division.)

I concede on the O-Line. They're locked up for, I believe, three years and have been playing together for at least one full year. And, you're absolutely right re Kaczur. So, point conceded.

But there are just too many leaps of faith required in the rest.

Caldwell's a big "maybe" with an injury history. Jackson hasn't caught a pass in the NFL. I hope you're right, but I just can't say we've "improved" there.

You clearly know a lot about the NFL, so you know at least as well as I do that Vinatieri was a lot more than "a 80% kicker." Gramattica's a head case and Gostokowski might be the next Stenerud, but he hasn't kicked a beer can in the NFL yet. So, I really disagree there.

IF Colvin's all the way back and IF some combo of Beisel, Gardner, Claridge and Roach work magic, then maybe it works out like you say without McG. But, it's still too much of a stretch to say we've improved.

(We also lack a lights out corner, but that's not on the table.)

The original poster had us 13--3 and coasting through a "very relaxing schedule." Do you think BB believes that today? I think he'd say, as he does every season, that he won't know what he has until the sixth game or so. Maybe you've got some insight into Piolichick's genius here and know what their "plan" is. Personally, I think it's simple: they decided not to pay up for Givens, McGinest and Ashworth, maybe didn't treat Number Four as well as they should have, and are hoping that they can work their old magic once again along the lines you describe. I hope you're right. I want to see us joint the Steelers as the only team to win "four of six," but until we see this team on the field, I still say we can't contend that we've "improved."

Good points all, however, BB will never prognosticate further than today.

I, however, believe that this team is stronger already than last year's team - - even BEFORE we spend that extra $15 million that's lying around - (I believe there will be a combo of extensions and 1 or 2 key FA signings).

Beisel is going to play a DIFFERENT position this year. He'll be at the WILL, instead of the MIKE. Last year he was an underweight, overrunning runt trying to be Ted Johnson. This year he won't be a square peg being forced into a round hole.

The depth at CB in TC is also a big difference versus last year. BB has seriously loaded up - even without a Ty Law.

It's a put-up-or-shut-up year for TBC and Marquise Hill. BB has brought them along slowly (and wisely) and this year they will be under the gun.

The depth at RB is much better. We won't see Zeroue or Heath Evans this year.

The schedule is far easier.

For these reasons, and many more, I do see 13-3 as very possible.