PATRIOTS NEWS Mandatory Minicamp 6/9-11

[Wozzy]

Thanks for making my point.
Welker was signed as an UDFA by San Diego and was cut. Picked up by Miami and had 29 rec his first year.
Amendola spend time on 2 teams Practice Squads before making an active roster, including his complete rookie year on the Cowboys PS.
So yes UDFAs can contribute, but the chances of ours contributing this year are historically remote, and will probably spend their whole year on the PS.
And I never said they were untalented, I said they went undrafted for a reason. They need development.
You're starting to enter Ring territory here where you take a statement made by a poster and interpret it the way you choose.

Ponder, Chism and Dippre all made the 53 man roster as rookies. That’s not historically remote. If one of the UDFA WR’s shines in preseason and absolutely stands out… there will be no hiding them on the practice squad.

 

[Wozzy]

Boutte is not special, you are right. But Boutte is not average or a JAG either. Boutte is the type of above average depth every team needs. If some team overpays Boutte in 2027 FA then the Pats have to let him go, but if it is a reasonable contract, sprinkle in some guaranteed money, and keep Boutte.

They’re paying Brown and Doubs, have to pay Gonzo and Maye eventually… you can’t pay everyone.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

Ponder, Chism and Dippre all made the 53 man roster as rookies. That’s not historically remote. If one of the UDFA WR’s shines in preseason and absolutely stands out… there will be no hiding them on the practice squad.

The chances one of our UDFA WRs is a better NFL WR than Boutte in 2026 is historically remote.
Slice it any way you want, doesn't change the fact Boutte is an established NFL WR and our UDFA are projects with potential.
We didn't hide Chism on the PS last year, and his on-field game contributions were incredibly minimal.
You need quality, established depth on game day, not projects who might bee good 2-3 years down the road.
The funny thing is I hope our UDFAs do shine, and Boutte can be moved, but that is very far from a certainty.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Just like we gotta trust our management did their due diligence on AJ

How did I know you would go there?

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

How did I know you would go there?

I’m
nothing if not predictable

 

[Uptown]

In theaters now..

 

[mayoclinic]

We will extend mini-Maye for the outrageous sum of ... one million dollars!

 

[Uptown]

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Chism: 4.06/6.77
Douglas: 4.29/7.05

Despite literal decades of Patsfans love of Welker and Edelman, the reality is that neither the SS nor the 3 cone are correlated with WR success. You can have a score so poor that it is unlikely you will succeed, yes. There is a small correlation between 3 cone and draft position, which shows that scouts as well as draft nerds likely overvalue it.

There is not a strong predictive correlation between a college wr and nfl success. The strongest, which are still quite weak, are draft capital, college dominator score, age at dominator break out, and yards per route run.
Age, height and weight are semi-useful, and if you had to pick one metric, it should likely be the broad jump

 

[scott99]

Despite literal decades of Patsfans love of Welker and Edelman, the reality is that neither the SS nor the 3 cone are correlated with WR success. You can have a score so poor that it is unlikely you will succeed, yes. There is a small correlation between 3 cone and draft position, which shows that scouts as well as draft nerds likely overvalue it.

There is not a strong predictive correlation between a college wr and nfl success. The strongest, which are still quite weak, are draft capital, college dominator score, age at dominator break out, and yards per route run.
Age, height and weight are semi-useful, and if you had to pick one metric, it should likely be the broad jump

I think that back in the days of Welker, Edelman and Amendola, the SS and the 3 cone indeed correlated in WR success during the Brady/McDaniels era in the 2nd part of the dynasty. It predicated on quick, short area studs. Brady was like a point guard passing to the open guy, whether they were open 10 yards down the field or 5. And man was he a great point guard, just always finding the open man, who got open FAST.

The Maye/Mcdaniels era seems like a different kind of offense. Mcdaniels doesn’t seem to tailor his current offense, especially the slot position, like he did when he had Welker/Edelman/Amendola. So at this point in time, you might be correct about SS and 3 cone currently, but back in the day, it mattered A LOT.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Amendola doesn’t belong on that list. He never had had a 700 yard season despite playing 13 seasons. He just wasn’t very god. He had some big playoff moments- but so did Brandon LaFell and David Givens.

Welker and Edelman are very different. Revis would talk about Welker didn’t even run routes- he would read coverage in unison with Brady and Run to an empty spot. Edelman worked relentlessly on his craft and learned from Welker and Moss. He was great at not tipping his route as he broke into choppy steps. They were both huge beneficiaries of a huge target share. Edelman has some of the lowest receding numbers I found of anyone with 150 targets and never cracked 1000 yards unless he got 150 targets- DHop has the worst.

Missing from this chart is Edelman in 2013 with
151 targets and 1056 yards and in 2016 wirh 159 targets and 1106 yards. He was a good, not great, regular season player. He was nails in the playoffs

Edit-I think I have it now:
PLAYER YEAR TARGETS REC YDs
Rob Moore 1997 209 1,584
Herman Moore 1995 206 1,686
Marvin Harrison 2002 205 1,722
Calvin Johnson 2012 204 1,964
Julio Jones 2015 203 1,871
Cris Carter 1995 197 1,371
Brandon Marshall 2012 194 1,508
Antonio Brown 2015 193 1,834
DeAndre Hopkins 2014 192 1,521
Cooper Kupp 2021 191 1,947
Michael Thomas 2019 185 1,725
CeeDee Lamb 2023 181 1,749
Reggie Wayne 2012 176 1,355
DeAndre Hopkins 2017 174 1,378
Wes Welker 2012 174 1,354
Wes Welker 2011 172 1,569
Jarvis Landry 2015 166 1,157
Stefon Diggs 2020 166 1,535
DeAndre Hopkins 2018 163 1,572
Stefon Diggs 2021 164 1,225
Wes Welker 2009 162 1,348
Julian Edelman 2016 159 1,106
CeeDee Lamb 2022 156 1,359
Allen Robinson 2019 154 1,147
Stefon Diggs 2022 154 1,429
Adam Thielen 2018 153 1,373
Julian Edelman 2019 153 1,117
DeAndre Hopkins 2015 151 954
Wes Welker 2008 150 1,165
DeAndre Hopkins 2019 150 1,165

​

 

[rabidfireweasel]

2002	2	Deion Branch	5'9"	191	NA	6.71	3.76
2002	7	David Givens	6'0"	217	4.57	6.82	4.13
2003	2	Bethel Johnson	5'11"	201	4.30
2004	5	P.K. Sam	6'3"	210
2006	2	Chad Jackson	6'1"	213	4.35	6.73	3.97
2009	3	Brandon Tate	5'12"	183	4.52†	7.25†	4.12†
2009	7	Julian Edelman	5'10"	195	4.52†	6.62†	3.92†
2010	3	Taylor Price	6'0"	204	4.41	6.82	4.34
2012	7	Jeremy Ebert	5'11"	200	4.38†
2013	2	Aaron Dobson	6'3"	210	4.42	7.19	4.33
2013	4	Josh Boyce	5'11"	206	4.38	6.68	4.10
2014	7	Jeremy Gallon	5'8"	185
2016	4	Malcolm Mitchell	5'12"	198	4.45	6.94	4.34
2018	6	Braxton Berrios	5'9"	184	4.44†	6.72†	4.18†
2019	1	N'Keal Harry	6'2"	228	4.53	7.05	4.28
2021	7	Tre Nixon	6'0"	187	4.44†	6.81†	4.25†
2022	2	Tyquan Thornton	6'2"	181	4.28	7.25	4.39
2023	6	Kayshon Boutte	5'11"	195	4.50	7.14	4.25
2023	6	DeMario Douglas	5'8"	179	4.44	7.05	4.29

Here is what I could find on every WR BB drafted. All of them have sub 4.6 40’s (another myth on Patsfans - that BB did care about 40 times- he clearly did, tons of 4.4s) Plenty of of good 3 cones times. Not a lot of good wr’s.

3 cone, especially when adjusting for height and weight, is very useful for looking at edge rushers. Wr’s - not so much

 

[Wozzy]

The chances one of our UDFA WRs is a better NFL WR than Boutte in 2026 is historically remote.
Slice it any way you want, doesn't change the fact Boutte is an established NFL WR and our UDFA are projects with potential.
We didn't hide Chism on the PS last year, and his on-field game contributions were incredibly minimal.
You need quality, established depth on game day, not projects who might bee good 2-3 years down the road.
The funny thing is I hope our UDFAs do shine, and Boutte can be moved, but that is very far from a certainty.

They have quality established depth without Boutte.

 

[captain stone]

On a team that wants to run more, is there room for a munchkin WR who can't block?

There's room for one of those, I would think.

 

[n1997y]

There's room for one of those, I would think.

You’re saying Chism has a chance?

lol.

 

[captain stone]

The fact that Justin Jefferson entered the league in 2020 & could conceivably amass/surpass 10,000 receiving yards this upcoming season is insane. Especially after two down years.

Yep; I remember people like Manxman & others on the draft forum were very high on this guy...

 

[Wozzy]

Measurables don’t guarantee success at any position. Prospects have to prove they can play pro football first. But once they do, measurables often set the ceiling.

It’s not coincidence Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson and Tyreek Hill were absurd athletes… uniquely gifted athletes. Deion Branch and Edelman’s extreme agility drills directly correlated to their ability to break defenders ankles.

 

[mgteich]

I think that many posters do NOT think that we are as good as our best backup.

There's room for one of those, I would think.

Brown, Doubs, Hollins, and Williams are locks.
===========
Boutte is a backup to Brown and Doubs. Also, he can blocsk.
Do the others come close?
============
Who is the one WR under 5'11", under 195, who can't block?
5'8" 192
5"11 195
5"11" 200
6'1" 195