Content Post A dead period topic - Drake Maye expectations for year 3 - Realistic and otherwise

We’re replacing Boutte with Doubs, if he takes it in camp. Then it’s Pops vs Boutte vs Hollins vs Kyle Williams behind them. Then there’s Chism. Face it, there are an Efton of receivers to think about…

turkeyneck said:

I want to see him get over his "Checkdown Charlie" phobia. He needs to mature to the point of understanding that the short field game is essential to keeping the sticks moving. I once saw a demo of medieval sword-fighting. It pitted the usual guy with a great broad sword against a fellow with a dagger. The dagger guy cut every tendon and stabbed every artery (not really, of course, but could have) until the broadsword guy was like a Monty Python character. In analogy to football, Brady was the knife-fighter and Bledsoe was the broadsword wielder. I want Maye to learn him some knife-fighting. Don't blow off the short field reads in his progression because he's in a hurry to see who's open deep.

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I can’t remember where I read or heard it, but my understanding is one point of emphasis with Maye this offseason was learning to look short more often vs. looking to make a huge play. In other words, they are looking to improve his short and intermediate game. If he develops that a little more in McDaniels offense, Maye could end up mastering it as Brady eventually did.

turkeyneck said:

I want to see him get over his "Checkdown Charlie" phobia. He needs to mature to the point of understanding that the short field game is essential to keeping the sticks moving. I once saw a demo of medieval sword-fighting. It pitted the usual guy with a great broad sword against a fellow with a dagger. The dagger guy cut every tendon and stabbed every artery (not really, of course, but could have) until the broadsword guy was like a Monty Python character. In analogy to football, Brady was the knife-fighter and Bledsoe was the broadsword wielder. I want Maye to learn him some knife-fighting. Don't blow off the short field reads in his progression because he's in a hurry to see who's open deep.

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Vrabel has made it clear that Maye follows the checkdowns for each play as MacDaniels has outlined them for him. If anything what I want to see is MacDaniels give him more freedom to ad lib. If people have a " checkdown Charlie" problem it's with MacDaniels, not Maye.

Borg140 said:

I can’t remember where I read or heard it, but my understanding is one point of emphasis with Maye this offseason was learning to look short more often vs. looking to make a huge play. In other words, they are looking to improve his short and intermediate game. If he develops that a little more in McDaniels offense, Maye could end up mastering it as Brady eventually did.

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But he is not going to "master it" THIS season. What we hope for is that he gets better at it. It is only his 2nd year in the system.

patfanken said:

2. I want to see Drake become a better ball handler. I would like him to improve his ball fakes on play action passes especially. Last year I didn't think he was great at it and he rarely actually meshed with ball carrier he was faking to. This year we will have 2 backs in the backfield much more than last, given we are featuring a FB this year. That alone give Maye and Josh many more opportunities to create misdirection in the backfield and slow down LB pursuit and make teams pay for playing attacking defenses that predetermine reads. BUT to make it work, Maye will have to become a more skilled ballhandler. It will take some time, so for right now I'd settle for good play action pass fakes.

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The play action pass is a good weapon, once you have established the running game. However many times the Patriots were not effective at running the ball because of the OL inability to move people and create holes.

What I do find frustrating is I can remember at least a dozen times last season thinking WHY on earth do the Patriots not have designed plays for Drake rolling out of the pocket and deciding to either pass or USE his LEGS to gain 1st downs?

I'm going to put the BLAME on Josh McDaniels. Maybe he didn't feel comfortable doing that yet because he didn't realize Maye's athletic capability but this season I want to see designed plays that help take advantage of Darke's athleticism as a dual threat playmaker.

patfanken said:

3. I want to see him become more evasive in the pocket. Brady, of course, was a master of making rushers miss within that 5 yd square of the pocket. Drake, with almost an infinite amount more athletic ability needs to develop that "escapability" that guys like Williams and Mahomes show on a regular basis. Now I don't expect Maye to become as good as those guys are. He is a different QB type. I'm looking for just enough "escapability" to make one man miss more often than not.

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One of Drake's biggest weaknessess has been pocket awareness. He eats way too many sacks waiting for the play to develop. He needs to get a lot better "in the phone booth" to buy time and evade getting touched. We know he likes the big splash downfield plays and he has the arm to deliver, but he needs to make a leap forward in both his pocket awareness and pocket command if he wants to continue to do so without suffering big hits or turning the ball over from fumbles.

patfanken said:

4. Among the expectations of the offense this season is that we will see a bit more expectations of a renewed emphasis on the running game this season. That will mean that Maye will be limited to around 25-30 passes per game, much like what we saw last season. It will be interesting to see how he distributes the ball. Will it be, "the open man" or will Brown get his 7-10 targets a game force fed. This will ultimately THE question that will last well into the season as we see how it works out in reality. It will be ultimately up to Drake more than anyone else in how he distributes the ball. The only thing we know for certain is this will NOT be team that throws the ball 35-45 passes a game like the Rams on a regular basis. I find THIS question of ball distribution and the amount of passing we will be doing this season fascinating and compelling enough to be of major discussion during the next 5 weeks of dead time.

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The best man is the open man. I believe Brown is talented enough that he will often be BOTH the best Option and the Open option. But Drake needs to stay disciplined in his play reads and progressions and throw the ball to his best option at the time of the play. Don't give into the temptation of only favoring one weapon if a better play is available in the moment. Forcing plays into the teeth of the defense rather than taking what the defense gives up would be a mistake.

For years Brady detractors called him a game manager because he took the easy high percentage plays. What they failed to realize is that when TB12 constantly dissected opposing defenses and consistently completed high percentage plays then turned those long drives into points, that process wore down and demoralized defenses. Eventually Tom would capitalize on opportunities to punish the defense, but he was smart enough to never force the issue, take the free play when given, and pick his moments to drive the ball downfield.

Drake has great arm talent, but he needs to stop thinking that taking free plays is being a "check down Charlie." No Drake, sometimes the easy plays are just good football plays, period. The quickest way to kill a drive is negative plays or high risk plays that come up empty. Here's hoping Drake studies the film hard, gets into his comfort zone, learns to manipulate the defense during pre-play snaps, and increases his processing speed using pre-snap reads.

Reasonable expectations:
4,600 yards 36 TDs 10 INT.

Previous season:
4,394 yards 31 TDs 8 INT.

If Maye clicks with Brown right away and establishes a similar connection like Brady had with Moss, he could easily threaten 5k yards in 2026 but only time will tell. Hopefully Drake makes a nice step forward this year and not a step back.

ctpatsfan77 said:

I feel like the "Checkdown Charlie" thing rests on some sort of misunderstanding. As I have noted several times before, he only throws about 10-12 passes a game even 10 yards beyond the LOS. I think he was talking more about not throwing dumpoffs at/behind the LOS.

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This is a great topic that is often misunderstood.

Last year Maye threw 461 passes.
62 were 20+ yards downfield (12.6%)
117 were 10-19 (23.8)
231 were 0-9 (47)
51. Were behind the line. (10.7)
(I believe it doesn’t add up to 100% because of sacks)

The 51 behind the line are designed calls that are auto executed and probably about the same number of the 0-9s are.

That leaves 369 plays were he “decides” the depth of throw and they are close to 50/50 under vs over 10 yards.
I out decides in quotes because the “decision” is to read his progressions in the play call and find the first open option and whether those progression are deep to short or short to deep in the play call has a major influence on where he is throwing.

Importantly Maye completed 66.7% of the 10-19 and 54.8% which is absolutely phenomenal almost unheard of.
For comparison Josh Allen was 60.4% and 43.4% and Stafford was 58.2 and 47.1.


Ultimately there are 3 factors that impact depth of throw, exclusive of the designed screens and dump offs.
1) Play design of progressions. Are the play calls short to deep progressions or deep to short? I think last year we did more short to deep than we wanted to because of OL troubles.
2) What is the QBs definition of open? Does he fit into tight spaces or needs guy to be wide open? Does it differ with short or deep throws?
Maye appears to have an aggressive view of what open down the field is. Contrast to Mac Jones who’s biggest failure here was that he was afraid to throw more than a few yards downfield at first unless the receiver was wide open (never anticipating) then in his final season he just decided before the snap and forced it.
3) Extending the play. If your qb can escape the rush and extend the play, those plays usually lead to more deeper throws.


No we don’t want Maye , the best intermediate and deep thrower in the league and an excellent scrambler to learn to check down more.
Offense is about chunk plays. Extending plays is far better than giving up and checking down for 2 yards.

I see Maye having a career path more along the lines of Drew Bledsoe.

That means no 2026 post season following a Super Bowl loss. This season will be much more challenging for Maye and the team than last.

Tougher venues - Seattle and KC are the loudest stadiums in the NFL.
Better QBs - Darnold, Mahomes, Goss, Williams, Lawrence, Allen x 2, Nix.
Challenging travel - 2 West coast trips and 1 game in Germany.
Out of rhythm game dates and start times WNF - 7:20 pm, TNF - 7:15 pm ,MNF - 7:15 pm ,SNF - 7:20 pm, SMF - 8:30 am

And, the Pats 2025 film has been thoroughly dissected and broken down by at least every DC on the slate for this season. Like any good defense they will try to take away what Maye is good at. If they are successful, Maye will have to adjust.

I do not observe that killer instinct in Maye like Brady. I see a roll with flow type QB in Maye. I did not like Maye whining to McDaniels how hard it was in the AFCC in Denver. Give me a break.

Also Maye had pressure/no one open 140 times. He was sacked 47 scrambled for positive yards 93 for about 400 yards and threw it away 10.
So he is escaping a bad play about 70% of the times and gaining about 4 yards per.

Triumph said:

I see Maye having a career path more along the lines of Drew Bledsoe.

That means no 2026 post season following a Super Bowl loss. This season will be much more challenging for Maye and the team than last.

Tougher venues - Seattle and KC are the loudest stadiums in the NFL.
Better QBs - Darnold, Mahomes, Goss, Williams, Lawrence, Allen x 2, Nix.
Challenging travel - 2 West coast trips and 1 game in Germany.
Out of rhythm game dates and start times WNF - 7:20 pm, TNF - 7:15 pm ,MNF - 7:15 pm ,SNF - 7:20 pm, SMF - 8:30 am

And, the Pats 2025 film has been thoroughly dissected and broken down by at least every DC on the slate for this season. Like any good defense they will try to take away what Maye is good at. If they are successful, Maye will have to adjust.

I do not observe that killer instinct in Maye like Brady. I see a roll with flow type QB in Maye. I did not like Maye whining to McDaniels how hard it was in the AFCC in Denver. Give me a break.

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The patriots made the playoffs in 1997.

The rest, no.

Ring 6 said:

The patriots made the playoffs in 1997.

The rest, no.

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The NFL has changed in 30 years.

Youre wrong.

Triumph said:

The NFL has changed in 30 years.

Youre wrong.

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You said he would follow Bledsoe and not make the playoffs after a SB loss. Bledsoe made the playoffs. Those facts are facts, irrelevant to anything that has changed in 30 years, other than more teams make the playoffs now.

You made a 100% provable incorrect statement, unquestionably wrong, no opinion, purely fact, and you are incapable of admitting that.

PatsFanInVa said:

We've got all sorts of reasoning and thoughts, and I actually have a bunch of info points piled up in my head screaming "BREAKOUT." That said, the future's the future. I think the team's done what it needed to do to give DM a shot at greatness. But we just don't know till we know.

Okay seriously? If I were a betting man I'd put 100 bucks on 4,500 passing yards. It feels like that. And I'm restraining myself from saying 5,000.

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The math on that is tough. If the attempts per game are down to 25, as you indicated might happen, then 4500 yards is over 10 yards per attempt, and the greatest season in modern history based on that stat alone. If the running game is highly successful, then his stats might be great in every way but the volume numbers.

BTTA said:

The math on that is tough. If the attempts per game are down to 25, as you indicated might happen, then 4500 yards is over 10 yards per attempt, and the greatest season in modern history based on that stat alone. If the running game is highly successful, then his stats might be great in every way but the volume numbers.

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Pass attempts won’t be down

Triumph said:

I see Maye having a career path more along the lines of Drew Bledsoe.

That means no 2026 post season following a Super Bowl loss. This season will be much more challenging for Maye and the team than last.

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Anyone else agree the Pats would've been the #2 seed and hosting Denver in the AFCCG had they been healthy in 1997? That was their last best team of the 90's. Teams caught up to them by 1998 where the injuries started to get out of control.

Once again, it all comes down to how the OL plays - and they should be much better than last year.

But the ability to utilize Brown requires that Maye be protected long enough to throw it down the field.

He was scrambling a LOT last year and making big somethings out of nothing quite often. So we know he can be effective enough without good protection but it should be interesting to see what Josh has planned for this season. I do hope they spread the field and don't feel a need to give 150 targets to Brown, who won't likely catch as high a percentage as Diggs did. He'll be more effective if they don't rely solely on him,

I'm also expecting a better ground game, especially at the goal line. Those two things alone will mae a big difference this season.

On D, I'm expecting them to be the same if not better, but the good news is that the offense should be strong enough to win shootouts.

I keep forgetting we signed doubs for some reason but this team is really improved over last years. Just the oline alone, even though im nervous about Tucker, is much improved.

That video of campbell with all the all pro linemen that came out is great. So many guys dont make the extra effort and I think that will be an enduring trait with this team. I think vrabel is a good coach even if he made horrible personal choices. The wrs are better.

All this to say that I dont see regression at all in drakes future. Hes clearly a top 10 qb in the league now and is already better than Caleb, Herbert, love, and some of the other younger qbs. He runs when he needs to and hasnt sustained injuries like Bo nix, who may have a degenerative ankle. They've added to the roster to play to drakes strengths.

I believe his numbers will be better this year with the harder schedule. Mcdaniels is a great fit for drake and its so encouraging seeing him with someone besides brady and do really well. Drakes mastery of the mcdaniels system is gonna be on display this year. Along with jayden mcdaniels and burrow drake is the most fun qb to watch in the league

Ring 6 said:

You said he would follow Bledsoe and not make the playoffs after a SB loss. Bledsoe made the playoffs. Those facts are facts, irrelevant to anything that has changed in 30 years, other than more teams make the playoffs now.

You made a 100% provable incorrect statement, unquestionably wrong, no opinion, purely fact, and you are incapable of admitting that.

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Consider the source

Ring 6 said:

Pass attempts won’t be down

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Accurate. 500 pass attempts last year, it's not a lot. That's what really made Maye's season so outstanding. They weren't a 70/30 pass team, and they won't be this year either.

Ring 6 said:

The patriots made the playoffs in 1997.

The rest, no.

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Many fans are like you are ready for Dynasty 2.0 to resume. The champagne is chilling. The Homers have gone ape. All this talk about the Pats being the best team in the AFC is nonsense.

Yall will be throwing Anne Mayes cookies at Drake if he dont shape up.

Ring 6 said:

You said he would follow Bledsoe and not make the playoffs after a SB loss. Bledsoe made the playoffs. Those facts are facts, irrelevant to anything that has changed in 30 years, other than more teams make the playoffs now.

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Drink some more champagne.

I base my comments on the difficulty of the 2026 schedule and not your blind team worship.

Ring 6 said:

You made a 100% provable incorrect statement, unquestionably wrong, no opinion, purely fact, and you are incapable of admitting that.

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You told us Polk and Baker were high potential weapons.

Where are they anyway?