Free Agency Predictions: Call your shot

rabidfireweasel · Mar 8, 2026

It is the time of year where I often read people’s opinions of who we should sign and what price, and I often think than many posters are simply out of touch with what things will cost. I have seen a number of posters write that they like Alex Pierce at 20-25M max, and I just don’t see that happening unless the whole thing was fully guaranteed.

So, here is a simple exercise:
Name a player, predict the contract and the guaranteed money, and if you are a fan of the Pats signing that player at that price.

I’ll start:

Alex Pierce, no less that 27.5 per year, more on a 3 year contract (I see a 4 year)

I think 4 years, 112 M, 68M min. guaranteed, (signing bonus and first two years fully guaranteed, with another sizable roster bonus due near/on the beginning of league year 3)

For me: Pass. I have no problem with the going rate for top receivers, but I don’t think is a top receiver. Pierce’s market is artificially inflated because he is the best free agent in a very down year for free agent wide receivers. Top free agents go immediately in free agency, and you almost always have to pay a premium to acquire them. I don’t see Pierce as worth that premium.

DoubleDeluxe · Mar 8, 2026

I'm not good at predicting contracts, but I think your numbers on Pierce are a good estimate.
Sometimes you have to overpay.
It was universal opinion we overpaid Williams last year, but if you could go back would you change it?
Nope!!
I am fine with a Pierce overpay, he is the one FA who could truly dictate different coverage and make our other WRs more productive.
Based on your estimates, I am IN on Pierce.

Ring 6 · Mar 8, 2026

With Maye at QB Pierce could be the best addition we could make.
Pierce averages over 20 yards per catch, his average target is 18.7 yards downfield.
That ability with the best downfield passer in the league will frighten defenses.
It will dictate coverage and open up every other receiver.
We need to bolster the OL too, but this will elevate a very good offense to absolutely scary.

rabidfireweasel · Mar 8, 2026

Why don’t you put up what you think it will take to sign him, and if you pay that. It’s not that hard.

Ring 6 · Mar 8, 2026

rabidfireweasel said:
Why don’t you put up what you think it will take to sign him, and if you pay that. It’s not that hard.

I would pay what it takes.

DoubleDeluxe · Mar 8, 2026

rabidfireweasel said:
Why don’t you put up what you think it will take to sign him, and if you pay that. It’s not that hard.

I'm not good at prediction contracts, but do think your numbers are reasonable.
And I would pay it.

rabidfireweasel · Mar 8, 2026

DoubleDeluxe said:
I'm not good at predicting contracts, but I think your numbers on Pierce are a good estimate.
Sometimes you have to overpay.
It was universal opinion we overpaid Williams last year, but if you could go back would you change it?
Nope!!
I am fine with a Pierce overpay, he is the one FA who could truly dictate different coverage and make our other WRs more productive.
Based on your estimates, I am IN on Pierce.

I can’t argue much with what you are saying, except that last year I thought the team, because of its fallen status, HAD to overpay extra to get any top FA- beyond just the early shipping premium. I don’t think they have to overpay as much now, although the MA cost of housing and taxes likely bump it up a smidge.

The difference between the D with Williams in or out of the lineup was profound. And, he made this a legit destination again. So agreed, worth every penny.

Unlike many posters here, if NE signs Pierce, I will root for him and hope that I am wrong. I would prefer the Pats be great and me incorrect as opposed to the other way around.

Love to hear other thoughts on other players while we wait for the chaos to unfold.

Give Kraft A Hand · Mar 8, 2026

I think the Pats end up with Mafe say around 3/40. I do not think they end up with Pierce. He either reaches an 11 hour deal with the Colts for short term say like 2/60, or he goes to the Chargers for similar money the Pats are offering but endorsements he’ll get in LA will make up the difference in taxes. The one wild card with Pierce who no one is talking about is the Rams. They were poking around on Brown and they’re great at making tight cap situations work.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see him catching passes from Stafford this year.

If the Pats do sign a WR they’ll probably end up with Doubs who will probably be slightly overpaid and will end up getting cut after the season. I see him as a possession guy who was a product of the system in Green Bay. He’s more of a 3 which this team has a bunch of 3s and 4s already.

RxJock1120 · Mar 8, 2026

Ring 6 said:
I would pay what it takes.

I would too if it wasn't my money...

DoubleDeluxe · Mar 8, 2026

rabidfireweasel said:
I can’t argue much with what you are saying, except that last year I thought the team, because of its fallen status, HAD to overpay extra to get any top FA- beyond just the early shipping premium. I don’t think they have to overpay as much now, although the MA cost of housing and taxes likely bump it up a smidge.

The difference between the D with Williams in or out of the lineup was profound. And, he made this a legit destination again. So agreed, worth every penny.

Unlike many posters here, if NE signs Pierce, I will root for him and hope that I am wrong. I would prefer the Pats be great and me incorrect as opposed to the other way around.

Love to hear other thoughts on other players while we wait for the chaos to unfold.

It's a pretty underwhelming WR FA class.
Guys like Doubs and W. Robinson are nice options, but they the aren't much different than guys we have on the roster.
Not saying we shouldn't add guys like that, but if we do I believe that pushes WR way up the list on our draft needs list.
We won many SBs without a dominating #1 WR, it was death by a thousand cuts, and Brady excelled at that.
Maye is not that guy, he thrives in the downfield passing attack. So we need a legit deep threat, that's why Pierce makes so much sense.
Perhaps a draft pick after the first 2 rds like Lance or Caldwell can turn into that deep threat. There are big fast guys that could fill that roll, but of course that is a projection.

DC Patriots · Mar 8, 2026

Pierce 104m 4yrs

FreeTedWilliams · Mar 8, 2026

Conor Barwin, FINALLY

Edelmania · Mar 8, 2026

David Edwards
Jadeveon Clowney
Charlie Kolar

AJ Brown or no big name WR

Would love Devin Lloyd but don't think we'll sign him.

hornetfb85 · Mar 8, 2026

Wandale Robinson: 4 yrs 72-76 mil
Boye Mafe: 3 yrs 42 mil
Cade Otton: 3 yrs 36 mil
Isaac Seamulo: 2 years 20 mil

DoubleDeluxe · Mar 8, 2026

Edelmania said:
David Edwards
Jadeveon Clowney
Charlie Kolar

AJ Brown or no big name WR

Would love Devin Lloyd but don't think we'll sign him.

Yes, another Clowney supporter!
2 years/$16M...or something like that.
This to supplement a higher price guy and a draft pick

rabidfireweasel · Mar 8, 2026

hornetfb85 said:
Wandale Robinson: 4 yrs 72-76 mil
Boye Mafe: 3 yrs 42 mil
Cade Otton: 3 yrs 36 mil
Isaac Seamulo: 2 years 20 mil

Appreciate the post and the numbers- are you in for NE on these prices? Are there players on this list that you want more ?

RxJock1120 · Mar 8, 2026

Pierce 4 years 123M - this will be a massive overpay, but he is the top WR on the market.

rabidfireweasel · Mar 8, 2026

RxJock1120 said:
Pierce 4 years 123M - this will be a massive overpay, but he is the top WR on the market.

Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him crack 30M per year

Ring 6 · Mar 8, 2026

RxJock1120 said:
I would too if it wasn't my money...

As a fan, it kind of is. I mean how the money is used affects you

hornetfb85 · Mar 8, 2026

rabidfireweasel said:
Appreciate the post and the numbers- are you in for NE on these prices? Are there players on this list that you want more ?

I would prefer Pierce because of his deep threatedness. Just see his price being out of our comfort zone.

I think Mafe would explode here with starter reps.

Otton is exactly what we need. A good blocker that can catch.

Seamulo also is exactly what we need. Solid, veteran guard to put between Campbell and Wilson. Can draft a middle round guy that can learn and take over in a year or two.

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