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Patriots Pregame Thread Pre-Game thread - 2025 AFC Championship at Denver Broncos

Pregame Discussion ahead of the LIVE game day discussion thread. The actual Game Thread will Open an hour ahead of kickoff.
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I know how the Pats are winning.

Drake Maye

If you don't have a QB in this league you're basically dead in the water. I surmise that NE could have this exact same team except Mac Jones at QB and we would be discussing free agents, draft and arguing about getting rid of Jones right now. Just like when Bledsoe was a Pat. Brady proved that there was nothing wrong with the team, but there was something wrong at QB.

QB is everything in football, when you have a good or bad QB he effects all areas of the team. Bad QB play gets HCs fired and good QB play buys HCs longevity. Your team is only as good as your QB the same as a business is only as good as its worst employee. Winning teams believe in their QB and losing teams are divided and question their QB. A winning team cannot be divided. This NE team is very much like the 2001 team.

Maye is making the correct decisions and throws when it counts. Vs Houston to Boutte, Diggs and Pop. You can have the best defense in NFL history, but you still have to score points to win. Simplistic, yes, but when you really boil it down, football is a simple game.
100% IF Maye have Zero Turnovers on Sunday we are winning by Four Scores.
 
I expect Payton will be semi-aggressive with Stidham. From what I recall (and the few preseason games I could find on YouTube), he is by nature a pretty aggressive player going downfield. He has the arm for it. But the main issue he has is slow decision making - he definitely holds the ball. We have to heat him up and disguise coverage, make him question what he's seeing out there, and he'll make mistakes. Do expect that he will test us downfield and Payton for sure will scheme up some shot plays because they are actually relatively low risk (if you can protect) - even picks are basically arm punts.
 
I expect Payton will be semi-aggressive with Stidham. From what I recall (and the few preseason games I could find on YouTube), he is by nature a pretty aggressive player going downfield. He has the arm for it. But the main issue he has is slow decision making - he definitely holds the ball. We have to heat him up and disguise coverage, make him question what he's seeing out there, and he'll make mistakes. Do expect that he will test us downfield and Payton for sure will scheme up some shot plays because they are actually relatively low risk (if you can protect) - even picks are basically arm punts.
Really good post. I think this is exactly what's going to happen.
 
Per Even Lazar just now....he was in the locker room and Mack Hollins was wearing pads as if he was going to practice.
Mac Hollins caught a TD pass in the AFCC last year.

A bomb from Allen.
 
Had to go watch Stidham tape. Watched every throw of the 49ers game in 2022-23 and most of the KC game in and some of each game in 2023-24 season.
The 49ers game is the one people talk about because the 49ers were good and his stats were good. His play was not good. Many plays I just shook my head.
He's a solid backup NFL QB.
He can scramble, really need to watch the scrambling. His deep ball is atrocious. 1 deep safety might be 1 too many. Processes slowly. Will stand and take a hit and complete some passes but also take a hit and throw it up for grabs. Ball placement on completed catches is inconsistent limiting YAC.
He's had 2 years to improve behind the scenes but this is not about Stidham. It's about how well the O-line protects him and how well Payton calls the game. Teams can win games with solid NFL backups.
However, I could easily see Stidham with multiple passes batted down, multiple picks and a fumble from him if they can apply any semblance of pressure.
 
I think a lot of you read what you want to read, see what you want to see, and hear what you want to hear. Broncos fans generally feel as if they have something of a puncher's chance in this game. If Maye puts the ball on the ground, and we protect it, we can win. If Bo Nix played, I'd feel differently. But in all likelihood, our season essentially ended when they took the x-ray of his leg. But honestly, a lot of you sort of remind me why it would be really cool to see Stidham come out, throw for 4 TDs, and make Patriots fans go back to being generally miserable about life. (Hey, no offense - I feel the same way about Celtics, Bruins, and Red Sox fans - don't take it personally. But I digress. I'm digressing.)

I kid. Sort of. Some of you seem delightful.
So you're saying I'm delightful on top of devilishly handsome. I always knew someone else would see it one day.
 
Had to go watch Stidham tape. Watched every throw of the 49ers game in 2022-23 and most of the KC game in and some of each game in 2023-24 season.
The 49ers game is the one people talk about because the 49ers were good and his stats were good. His play was not good. Many plays I just shook my head.
He's a solid backup NFL QB.
He can scramble, really need to watch the scrambling. His deep ball is atrocious. 1 deep safety might be 1 too many. Processes slowly. Will stand and take a hit and complete some passes but also take a hit and throw it up for grabs. Ball placement on completed catches is inconsistent limiting YAC.
He's had 2 years to improve behind the scenes but this is not about Stidham. It's about how well the O-line protects him and how well Payton calls the game. Teams can win games with solid NFL backups.
However, I could easily see Stidham with multiple passes batted down, multiple picks and a fumble from him if they can apply any semblance of pressure.
Unfortunately Denver has a really good offensive line. However the interior is where we might have a chance since we also have elite talent with Barmore and Williams. They HAVE to win with some frequency (perhaps aided by some games / using 5 man fronts to get 1 on 1s)
 
Blocking grades from the Bills vs Denver game.

You'll notice that the Center is not included because evidently he had an awful game. The Bills got pressure on Nix through the Center. Nix is very good at avoiding pressure and sacks. He was sacked only 22 times over 17 games. Too bad he isn't playing Sunday. I have a difficult time believing that you can just plug in Stidham and keep rolling with the same results. I do buy that Payton has a system that is proven, but also that Payton is a very QB specific HC.

Keep in mind that all these guys had awful run blocking grades... against one of the worst run defenses in the league in Buffalo. Now they are going against the Patriots, one of the best run defenses in the league, if not the best.
 
Unfortunately Denver has a really good offensive line. However the interior is where we might have a chance since we also have elite talent with Barmore and Williams. They HAVE to win with some frequency (perhaps aided by some games / using 5 man fronts to get 1 on 1s)
I like the matchup for the Patriots a lot, their best players on the line are in the middle, and that's where there's a possibility to get pressure (those tackles are excellent in pass protection).

It will be interesting to see how Payton schemes it up to help, I don't think leaving one of those backs in is going to be enough.
 
Denver's defense is really good at stopping the deep pass (unlike Texans who were just good but it was a relative weakness). Denver is much worse than the Texans at preventing passes to the short and intermediate parts of the field. They also blitz fairly frequently and play man coverage at some of the highest rates in the league (still less than 50% obviously but in the 30%s).

This makes our offensive gameplan much clearer to me - run the ball, use jumbo sets, use play action, target short and intermediate and avoid long-developing plays (helping to mitigate the pass rush a bit). This is very much a Steph Diggs, Hunter Henry, running backs in the passing game type of game to me. We should take a shot every few plays on Riley Moss if we can get a 1v1 with Boutte and Kyle Williams just to see if we can draw a DPI, but also to keep them honest and backed off. But the meat and potatoes will be underneath and intermediate + run game.
 
No corresponding roster move though, this is kinda weird.

They don't have to make a roster move until they activate him. They have 21 days to do so. If he is playing on Sunday, he won't be activated until Saturday. Then they will cut someone.
 
Denver's defense is really good at stopping the deep pass (unlike Texans who were just good but it was a relative weakness). Denver is much worse than the Texans at preventing passes to the short and intermediate parts of the field. They also blitz fairly frequently and play man coverage at some of the highest rates in the league (still less than 50% obviously but in the 30%s).

This makes our offensive gameplan much clearer to me - run the ball, use jumbo sets, use play action, target short and intermediate and avoid long-developing plays (helping to mitigate the pass rush a bit). This is very much a Steph Diggs, Hunter Henry, running backs in the passing game type of game to me. We should take a shot every few plays on Riley Moss if we can get a 1v1 with Boutte and Kyle Williams just to see if we can draw a DPI, but also to keep them honest and backed off. But the meat and potatoes will be underneath and intermediate + run game.
Hunter Henry needs to have a big game in this one - and man I wish we had Hollins available. Those two and Diggs is where the money's going to be in this one.

People think the Patriots linebackers can't cover, watch a couple of Broncos games.
 
It's funny. Usually when a player comes back from IR, he initially wears a red non-contact jersey. Hollins wears a red everything else but his jersey.

 
Bradbury is new. Nothing keeps an OL from a playoff game though.
 
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